Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 68 | 294 | 48 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 2.0 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 1.8% | 4.87 | 3.57 | +0.9 |
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 68 | 294 | 48 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 2.0 | 16.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 1.7% | 4.87 | 3.52 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 14 | 90 | 393 | 97 | 30 | 9 | 61% | 3.9 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 4.80 | 3.31 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 14 | 90 | 393 | 97 | 30 | 9 | 61% | 3.9 | 24.7% | 7.6% | 17.0% | 2.3% | 4.80 | 3.24 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 4.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 3.23 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 4.6% | 15.2% | 2.0% | 3.23 | 3.12 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 68 | 269 | 62 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 2.4% | 3.16 | 3.50 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 68 | 269 | 62 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 7.4% | 15.6% | 2.2% | 3.16 | 3.30 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 26 | 0 | 26 | 100 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 2.0% | 3.51 | 3.31 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 26 | 0 | 26 | 100 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 2.0% | 3.51 | 3.29 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 70 | 1 | 61 | 260 | 58 | 18 | 11 | 1% | 0.9 | 22.3% | 6.9% | 15.4% | 4.5% | 3.82 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 70 | 1 | 61 | 260 | 58 | 18 | 11 | 1% | 0.9 | 22.3% | 6.9% | 15.4% | 4.2% | 3.82 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 73 | 0 | 70 | 275 | 73 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 6.9% | 19.6% | 2.2% | 1.54 | 2.93 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 73 | 0 | 70 | 275 | 73 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 6.9% | 19.6% | 2.2% | 1.54 | 2.94 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 22 | 0 | 20 | 88 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.6% | 8.0% | 13.6% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 22 | 0 | 20 | 88 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.6% | 8.0% | 13.6% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 44 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | TOR | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | TOR | 33 | 0 | 34 | 146 | 32 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 3.9% | 4.88 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 0 | 30 | 125 | 26 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 5.28 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | TOR | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 3.9% | 4.88 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 5.28 | 5.55 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 359 | 1 | 387 | 1600 | 345 | 121 | 46 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 7.6% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 3.84 | 3.83 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 1 | 200 | 827 | 178 | 63 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 7.6% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 3.84 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 355 | 15 | 451 | 1876 | 408 | 137 | 47 | 4% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 14.5% | 2.5% | 3.69 | 3.56 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 7 | 200 | 831 | 181 | 61 | 21 | 4% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 14.5% | 2.5% | 3.69 | 3.56 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anthony Bass (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 5.08 | 22.0% | 11.6% | 104 | +0.83 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 87 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 84 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 84 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.61 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.77 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.16 | 3.10 | 174 | 69 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 68 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.38 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 720 | 67 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 65 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 63 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2025 · 5.30 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.81 | 226 | 61 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 61 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 61 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 57 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 56 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 56 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 56 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 54 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.07 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 132 | 51 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2024 · 3.54 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.54 | 10.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 128 | 50 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 47 |
| Neal Cotts L 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.24 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 156 | 39 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 38 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 1.40 | 4.67 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |