Jarlin Susana
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 22
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 72 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.18
FIP4.18
K%30.9%
BB%15.3%
K-BB%15.6%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 12 | 45 | 179 | 66 | 20 | 2 | 92% | 3.5 | 26.7% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 1.3% | 2.40 | 3.30 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 12 | 45 | 179 | 66 | 20 | 2 | 92% | 3.5 | 36.9% | 11.2% | 25.7% | 1.1% | 2.40 | 2.08 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 17 | 17 | 63 | 284 | 62 | 40 | 3 | 100% | 3.7 | 16.2% | 16.6% | -0.5% | 1.6% | 5.14 | 4.74 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 17 | 17 | 63 | 284 | 62 | 40 | 3 | 100% | 3.7 | 21.8% | 14.1% | 7.7% | 1.1% | 5.14 | 3.66 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 104 | 444 | 157 | 48 | 2 | 100% | 4.3 | 26.7% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 0.5% | 4.34 | 2.75 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 104 | 444 | 157 | 48 | 2 | 100% | 4.3 | 35.4% | 10.8% | 24.5% | 0.5% | 4.34 | 1.71 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 56 | 244 | 95 | 34 | 3 | 100% | 4.0 | 30.8% | 16.9% | 13.8% | 1.9% | 3.51 | 3.67 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 56 | 244 | 95 | 34 | 3 | 100% | 4.0 | 38.9% | 13.9% | 25.0% | 1.2% | 3.51 | 2.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 90 | 380 | 117 | 58 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 30.9% | 15.3% | 15.6% | 2.5% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 127 | 538 | 166 | 72 | 13 | 100% | 5.3 | 30.8% | 13.3% | 17.5% | 2.5% | 4.03 | 3.94 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 28 | 157 | 661 | 203 | 80 | 17 | 100% | 5.6 | 30.7% | 12.0% | 18.7% | 2.5% | 3.89 | 3.79 | +2.9 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 30 | 30 | 177 | 746 | 229 | 84 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.7% | 11.3% | 19.4% | 2.5% | 3.78 | 3.70 | +3.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 30 | 30 | 180 | 762 | 234 | 85 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.7% | 11.1% | 19.5% | 2.5% | 3.73 | 3.69 | +3.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 30 | 30 | 178 | 751 | 230 | 84 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.6% | 11.2% | 19.4% | 2.6% | 3.73 | 3.73 | +3.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 222 | 83 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.5% | 11.3% | 19.2% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.81 | +3.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 165 | 695 | 211 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.3% | 11.6% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.94 | +2.8 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 196 | 78 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 29.9% | 11.9% | 18.1% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.12 | +2.3 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 144 | 610 | 180 | 75 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 29.5% | 12.2% | 17.3% | 3.3% | 4.20 | 4.32 | +1.8 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 134 | 564 | 164 | 71 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 29.1% | 12.6% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 4.41 | 4.54 | +1.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 123 | 518 | 148 | 68 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.6% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 3.8% | 4.64 | 4.80 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 83 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 30.8% | 13.3% | 17.5% | 2.5% | 4.03 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 143 | 56 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 30.7% | 12.0% | 18.7% | 2.5% | 3.89 | 3.79 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 144 | 608 | 186 | 68 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 30.7% | 11.3% | 19.4% | 2.5% | 3.78 | 3.70 | +2.9 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 158 | 667 | 205 | 74 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.7% | 11.1% | 19.5% | 2.5% | 3.73 | 3.69 | +3.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 161 | 680 | 208 | 76 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.6% | 11.2% | 19.4% | 2.6% | 3.73 | 3.73 | +3.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 159 | 671 | 205 | 76 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.5% | 11.3% | 19.2% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.81 | +3.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 153 | 646 | 196 | 75 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.3% | 11.6% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.94 | +2.6 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 145 | 612 | 183 | 73 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 29.9% | 11.9% | 18.1% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.12 | +2.2 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 171 | 71 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 29.5% | 12.2% | 17.3% | 3.3% | 4.20 | 4.32 | +1.7 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 156 | 68 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 29.1% | 12.6% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 4.41 | 4.54 | +1.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 140 | 64 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.6% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 3.8% | 4.64 | 4.80 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 249 | 249 | 1474 | 6225 | 1876 | 737 | 179 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.1% | 11.8% | 18.3% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.63 | +30.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 254 | 100 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.1% | 11.8% | 18.3% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.63 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 67 | 268 | 1151 | 287 | 169 | 14 | 99% | 3.9 | 24.9% | 14.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | 4.03 | 3.52 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 50 | 200 | 859 | 214 | 126 | 10 | 99% | 3.9 | 24.9% | 14.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | 4.03 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jarlin Susana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 30.9% | 15.3% | 2.5% | — | 3.80 | 30.7% | 18.6% | 461 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| George Klassen R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.57 | 27.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .299 | 4.12 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 175 | +0.55 | 3.57 | 268 | 87 |
| Spencer Strider R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.64 | 30.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .298 | 2.16 | 37.4% | 29.6% | 318 | -1.48 | 1.65 | 589 | 83 |
| Trey Yesavage R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.22 | 31.5% | 11.7% | 2.4% | .269 | 4.05 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 75 | +0.83 | 3.22 | 187 | 82 |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.39 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 3.0% | .297 | 4.58 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 274 | +0.19 | 4.22 | 373 | 82 |
| Jackson Baumeister R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.31 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 1.2% | .270 | 5.38 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 127 | +2.07 | 3.31 | 226 | 80 |
| Sean Mooney R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 30.2% | 15.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.82 | 24.7% | 11.2% | 60 | +1.37 | 3.45 | 102 | 78 |
| Keyner Martinez R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.80 | 27.5% | 16.5% | 3.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 162 | 77 |
| Ben Hess R 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 2.98 | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.9% | .266 | 6.05 | 20.1% | 5.4% | 35 | +3.07 | 2.98 | 139 | 77 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 77 |
| Karson Milbrandt R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.6% | 14.4% | 1.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 340 | 76 |
| Daniel Eagen R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 25.1% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .263 | 5.83 | 22.7% | 12.5% | 71 | +1.76 | 4.07 | 189 | 75 |
| Kai-Wei Teng R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.39 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 3.0% | .310 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 349 | +0.26 | 2.55 | 718 | 75 |
| Cade Smith R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.88 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 1.9% | .273 | 5.75 | 18.7% | 6.9% | 107 | +1.87 | 3.88 | 192 | 75 |
| Dylan Jordan R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.77 | 25.0% | 14.4% | 1.8% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 148 | 75 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.89 | 26.6% | 21.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.86 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 231 | -0.03 | 3.93 | 323 | 74 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 24.5% | 14.7% | 3.6% | .284 | 4.49 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 292 | -0.37 | 4.07 | 408 | 74 |
| Matt Brash R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 27.8% | 13.3% | 1.9% | .273 | 2.73 | 32.2% | 20.3% | 147 | -0.78 | 1.92 | 309 | 73 |
| Jacob Odle R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 104 | 73 |
| Prelander Berroa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.69 | 28.6% | 17.3% | 1.5% | .254 | 4.08 | 26.3% | 10.4% | 131 | +0.39 | 3.24 | 389 | 73 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 12 | 150 | 30.2% | 12.0% | 1.09 | 3.99 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Mike Clevinger ('23) | 7 | 113 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 1.07 | 3.45 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |