Jarlin Susana
P
Harrisburg Senators
+0.5
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.8 · 2029
ERA4.23
FIP4.23
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%26.1%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%13.6%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2029
OFP—55
K†6065
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 13 | 12 | 45 | 179 | 66 | 20 | 2 | 26.7% | 13.9% | 1.2% | 2.40 | 3.28 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 17 | 17 | 63 | 284 | 62 | 40 | 3 | 16.2% | 16.6% | 1.5% | 5.14 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 24 | 24 | 104 | 444 | 157 | 48 | 2 | 26.7% | 12.6% | 0.5% | 4.34 | 2.75 | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 14 | 14 | 56 | 244 | 95 | 34 | 3 | 30.8% | 16.9% | 1.8% | 3.51 | 3.64 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | WSH | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 61 | 29 | 6 | 26.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | WSH | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 65 | 27 | 6 | 26.5% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 59 | — | 59 | 251 | 67 | 26 | 6 | 26.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 3.90 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 69 | 25 | 6 | 27.0% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 3.90 | 3.83 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 69 | 25 | 6 | 27.1% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 3.82 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 68 | 25 | 6 | 27.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 3.84 | 3.83 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 67 | 24 | 6 | 27.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 65 | 24 | 6 | 27.0% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 3.88 | 3.90 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 63 | 24 | 6 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.96 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 60 | 23 | 6 | 26.6% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 57 | 22 | 6 | 26.3% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 54 | 22 | 6 | 26.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 51 | 21 | 6 | 25.6% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 25.2% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 67 | 268 | 1151 | 287 | 169 | 13 | 24.9% | 14.7% | 1.2% | 4.03 | 3.49 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 50 | 200 | 859 | 214 | 126 | 10 | 24.9% | 14.7% | 1.2% | 4.03 | 3.49 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jarlin Susana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 26.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | — | 3.92 | 26.8% | 16.4% | 178 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Jackson Kelley R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.80 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.3% | .313 | 3.99 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 94 | +0.19 | 3.80 | 146 | 93 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.74 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.34 | 20.1% | 1.6% | 149 | +1.60 | 3.74 | 203 | 91 |
| Jacob Webb R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.33 | 26.7% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .328 | 4.54 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 170 | +1.21 | 3.33 | 223 | 90 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.65 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.49 | 26.5% | 14.2% | 85 | -0.16 | 2.90 | 144 | 89 |
| Jack Ralston R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.56 | 28.0% | 14.9% | 1.7% | .270 | 4.44 | 24.7% | 7.3% | 124 | +0.88 | 3.56 | 248 | 89 |
| Alex Cook R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.03 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .266 | 3.34 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 53 | -0.69 | 2.94 | 119 | 88 |
| Evan Reifert R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.67 | 30.4% | 16.2% | 2.0% | .276 | 3.09 | 31.5% | 20.4% | 68 | -0.58 | 2.99 | 148 | 88 |
| Nick Ernst R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.55 | 30.5% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .292 | 5.04 | 21.9% | 7.3% | 60 | +1.49 | 3.55 | 117 | 87 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.31 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.83 | 3.48 | 290 | 87 |
| Jacob Wallace R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.31 | 26.6% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .316 | 4.79 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 167 | +0.48 | 3.93 | 258 | 86 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.58 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.48 | 4.10 | 130 | 86 |
| Scott Engler R 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 22 | SW | 2.95 | 26.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.14 | 23.8% | 12.6% | 53 | +1.19 | 2.95 | 170 | 86 |
| Justin Yeager R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.34 | 3.29 | 201 | 86 |
| Mark Ecker R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.23 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 1.6% | .322 | 4.56 | 16.7% | 4.2% | 118 | +1.33 | 3.23 | 180 | 85 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.63 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.67 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.04 | 4.41 | 152 | 85 |
| Jake Cosart R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.17 | 26.8% | 14.5% | 0.9% | .277 | 4.20 | 21.3% | 7.7% | 141 | +1.03 | 3.17 | 212 | 85 |
| Dauris Valdez R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.18 | 24.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .328 | 4.75 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 55 | +0.57 | 3.00 | 165 | 85 |
| Austin Vernon R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.39 | 26.6% | 14.9% | 3.0% | .234 | 4.63 | 22.8% | 7.6% | 182 | +0.24 | 3.36 | 261 | 85 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 85 |
| Magnus Ellerts R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 29.5% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .325 | 3.92 | 27.3% | 11.2% | 98 | +0.29 | 3.55 | 139 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $10M | $21M | +$10M | ||