Jarlin Susana — OGILVIE

Jarlin Susana P Harrisburg Senators

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.0 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.16

FIP4.16

K%30.9%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%15.7%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$49M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†7070

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$14M	+$13M
2030	Arb-1	$8M	+2.3	$14M	+$8M
2031	Arb-2	$13M	+2.3	$13M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$17M	+2.1	$11M	+$1M
Totals		$40M		$64M	+$40M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	45	179	66	20	2	92%	3.5	26.7%	13.9%	12.8%	1.1%	2.40	3.23	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	12	45	179	66	20	2	92%	3.5	36.9%	11.2%	25.7%	1.1%	2.40	2.08	—
2023	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	17	17	63	284	62	40	3	100%	3.7	16.2%	16.6%	-0.5%	1.5%	5.14	4.66	—
2023	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	17	17	63	284	62	40	3	100%	3.7	16.2%	16.6%	-0.5%	1.5%	5.14	4.66	—
2023	19	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	17	17	63	284	62	40	3	100%	3.7	21.8%	14.1%	7.7%	1.1%	5.14	3.66	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	104	444	157	48	2	100%	4.3	26.7%	12.6%	14.0%	0.6%	4.34	2.75	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	104	444	157	48	2	100%	4.3	26.7%	12.6%	14.0%	0.6%	4.34	2.75	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	104	444	157	48	2	100%	4.3	35.4%	10.8%	24.5%	0.5%	4.34	1.71	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	56	244	95	34	3	100%	4.0	30.8%	16.9%	13.8%	1.8%	3.51	3.63	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	56	244	95	34	3	100%	4.0	30.8%	16.9%	13.8%	1.8%	3.51	3.63	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	56	244	95	34	3	100%	4.0	38.9%	13.9%	25.0%	1.2%	3.51	2.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	7	7	18	78	34	7	1	100%	2.5	32.1%	8.3%	23.8%	2.3%	5.09	2.68	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	7	7	18	78	34	7	1	100%	2.5	32.1%	8.3%	23.8%	2.3%	5.09	2.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	WSH	3	3	6	25	13	3	0	100%	2.1	52.0%	12.0%	40.0%	0.0%	5.68	0.23	—
2026	22	AA RAW	WSH	4	4	11	53	21	4	1	100%	2.8	39.6%	7.5%	32.1%	1.9%	4.76	1.75	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	WSH	1	1	7	30	9	4	1	100%	7.0	30.9%	15.2%	15.7%	2.5%	4.16	4.16	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	25	108	43	11	2	—	—	40.1%	10.7%	29.4%	1.6%	4.83	3.10	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	131	552	170	73	14	100%	5.5	30.7%	13.2%	17.5%	2.5%	4.02	3.92	+1.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	160	676	207	81	17	100%	5.5	30.7%	12.0%	18.7%	2.5%	3.88	3.77	+2.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	31	31	180	760	233	85	19	100%	5.8	30.6%	11.2%	19.4%	2.5%	3.77	3.68	+2.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	30	30	180	761	233	84	19	100%	6.0	30.6%	11.1%	19.6%	2.5%	3.72	3.67	+2.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	30	30	178	749	230	83	19	100%	5.9	30.6%	11.1%	19.5%	2.6%	3.71	3.71	+2.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	172	727	222	82	19	100%	5.9	30.5%	11.3%	19.2%	2.7%	3.76	3.80	+2.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	27	27	164	695	210	80	20	100%	6.1	30.3%	11.5%	18.8%	2.8%	3.86	3.93	+1.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	155	653	195	77	20	100%	5.9	29.9%	11.8%	18.1%	3.0%	4.01	4.10	+1.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	144	609	180	74	20	100%	6.0	29.5%	12.2%	17.4%	3.2%	4.19	4.31	+1.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	133	563	164	71	20	100%	6.1	29.1%	12.6%	16.5%	3.5%	4.40	4.53	+0.6
2037	33	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	122	517	148	67	19	100%	6.1	28.6%	13.0%	15.6%	3.8%	4.63	4.78	+0.2
2038	34	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	111	470	132	64	19	100%	5.9	28.0%	13.5%	14.5%	4.1%	4.89	5.06	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	66	279	86	37	7	100%	5.5	30.7%	13.2%	17.5%	2.5%	4.02	3.92	+0.8
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	113	477	146	57	12	100%	5.7	30.7%	12.0%	18.7%	2.5%	3.88	3.77	+1.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	25	25	147	621	190	69	16	100%	5.9	30.6%	11.2%	19.4%	2.5%	3.77	3.68	+2.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	158	667	204	74	17	100%	6.1	30.6%	11.1%	19.6%	2.5%	3.72	3.67	+2.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	27	27	160	676	207	75	17	100%	5.9	30.6%	11.1%	19.5%	2.6%	3.71	3.71	+2.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	159	671	205	76	18	100%	6.1	30.5%	11.3%	19.2%	2.7%	3.76	3.80	+2.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	153	646	196	74	18	100%	5.9	30.3%	11.5%	18.8%	2.8%	3.86	3.93	+1.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	145	612	183	72	18	100%	6.0	29.9%	11.8%	18.1%	3.0%	4.01	4.10	+1.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	WSH	23	23	137	578	171	70	19	100%	6.0	29.5%	12.2%	17.4%	3.2%	4.19	4.31	+1.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	WSH	21	21	127	536	156	67	19	100%	6.0	29.1%	12.6%	16.5%	3.5%	4.40	4.53	+0.5
2037	33	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	116	490	140	64	18	100%	6.1	28.6%	13.0%	15.6%	3.8%	4.63	4.78	+0.2
2038	34	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	101	426	119	58	17	100%	5.9	28.0%	13.5%	14.5%	4.1%	4.89	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		267	267	1580	6673	2001	793	196	100%	5.9	30.0%	11.9%	18.1%	2.9%	4.03	3.69	+23.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	253	100	25	100%	5.9	30.0%	11.9%	18.1%	2.9%	4.03	3.69	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		75	74	286	1229	312	176	15	99%	3.8	25.4%	14.3%	11.1%	1.2%	4.10	3.43	+18.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	52	200	860	219	123	10	99%	3.8	25.4%	14.3%	11.1%	1.2%	4.10	3.43	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jarlin Susana (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	30.9%	15.2%	2.5%	—	3.78	30.7%	18.7%	471	-0.38	—	—	—
Spencer Strider R 2021 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	30.7%	11.6%	2.5%	.298	2.16	37.4%	29.6%	318	-1.21	1.65	589	82
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	82
Sean Mooney R 2021 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	30.2%	15.3%	1.6%	.250	4.70	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.34	3.36	102	80
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	78
Hayden Birdsong R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	26.7%	11.9%	1.7%	.320	4.77	24.4%	11.6%	225	+1.48	3.29	326	75
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	74
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	73
Kai-Wei Teng R 2021 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP	4.47	26.3%	14.7%	3.1%	.310	4.52	20.9%	7.9%	349	+0.05	2.57	727	73
Prelander Berroa R 2022 · 3.68 FIP	22	SP	3.68	28.6%	17.3%	1.5%	.254	3.96	25.8%	10.8%	131	+0.28	3.13	389	73
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.81	22.5%	9.1%	231	-0.01	3.75	326	73
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	73
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	73
Wikelman González R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP	3.90	27.6%	16.6%	1.9%	.297	4.00	21.9%	7.0%	188	+0.10	3.20	496	71
Matt Brash R 2021 · 3.46 FIP	23	SP	3.46	27.8%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	2.76	32.2%	20.3%	147	-0.70	1.91	309	71
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	71
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	70
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	70
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.89	24.9%	14.1%	398	+0.45	3.44	682	70
Hunter Brown R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP-	4.28	25.4%	12.5%	3.2%	.333	3.49	26.4%	17.4%	452	-0.79	2.77	830	69
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.6	148	30.1%	12.1%	1.12	4.03
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67