Matt Brash — OGILVIE

Matt Brash P Seattle Mariners

+0.4 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 173 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.7 · 2027

ERA3.25

FIP3.53

xFIP3.66

SIERA3.98

K%28.1%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%19.4%

IP43

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2027

K†7070

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p8630.9%

p8729.1%

xwOBA vs

p810.282

SL+1.9 (55%)

CH+1.0 (16%)

FB+0.8 (29%)

SI (21%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	21	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	5	1	5	20	8	0	0	—	—	—	1.69	—	—
2021	23	AA	Arkansas Travelers	20	19	97	405	142	48	6	27.8%	13.3%	1.9%	2.31	3.48	+2.0
2022	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	61	5	77	329	103	46	7	29.8%	14.2%	2.1%	4.11	3.54	+1.4
2023	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	78	0	71	308	107	29	3	34.7%	9.4%	1.0%	3.06	1.90	+2.5
2025	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	59	0	53	227	63	18	5	29.1%	8.0%	2.0%	3.08	2.73	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	7	0	6	21	4	0	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	28	MLB	SEA	15	—	15	65	20	6	2	30.3%	8.6%	2.4%	3.18	3.35	+0.3
2026 Total	28	MLB	SEA	—	—	21	86	24	6	2	27.5%	6.5%	1.8%	2.28	2.41	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	SEA	42	—	42	176	50	14	4	28.7%	8.2%	2.4%	3.30	3.40	+0.7
2028	30	MLB	SEA	40	—	40	171	48	14	4	28.2%	8.3%	2.4%	3.41	3.49	+0.7
2029	31	MLB	SEA	39	—	39	165	45	14	4	27.6%	8.4%	2.5%	3.52	3.60	+0.6
2030	32	MLB	SEA	37	—	37	158	43	14	4	27.0%	8.6%	2.6%	3.63	3.71	+0.5
2031	33	MLB	SEA	36	—	36	151	40	13	4	26.3%	8.8%	2.7%	3.75	3.84	+0.4
2032	34	MLB	SEA	34	—	34	143	37	13	4	25.6%	9.0%	2.8%	3.89	3.98	+0.4
2033	35	MLB	SEA	32	—	32	135	34	12	4	24.9%	9.2%	2.9%	4.03	4.13	+0.3
2034	36	MLB	SEA	30	—	30	126	30	12	4	24.1%	9.4%	3.0%	4.19	4.29	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			230	25	309	1310	396	148	22	30.2%	11.3%	1.7%	3.00	2.90	+8.4
/ 200 IP	—			149	16	200	849	257	96	14	30.2%	11.3%	1.7%	3.00	2.90	+5.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Brash (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.35	30.3%	8.6%	2.4%	—	3.49	28.2%	19.9%	121	+0.14	—	—	—
Jake Cousins R 2026 · 3.11 FIP	28	SU	3.11	30.9%	11.9%	2.0%	.265	3.91	31.6%	18.8%	65	+0.80	1.11	160	74
Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 2.93 FIP	30	SU	2.93	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.62	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.69	2.93	176	74
Ray Black R 2026 · 2.95 FIP	28	SU	2.95	38.1%	9.5%	3.4%	.289	4.95	30.8%	17.6%	45	+2.00	2.95	150	73
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	28	SW	3.48	24.5%	7.9%	2.6%	.302	3.74	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.26	1.69	468	72
AJ Ramos R 2026 · 2.90 FIP	28	SW	2.90	31.4%	9.4%	2.3%	.247	3.48	26.8%	14.0%	142	+0.58	2.55	266	71
Adam Ottavino R 2028 · 2.61 FIP	30	SU	2.61	32.7%	6.5%	2.6%	.242	3.08	31.7%	19.3%	197	+0.47	2.15	488	70
Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	28	SW	3.54	25.1%	9.1%	2.6%	.277	3.88	21.1%	12.7%	203	+0.34	2.86	596	70
John Brebbia R 2026 · 3.20 FIP	28	SW	3.20	30.0%	6.4%	3.3%	.317	3.13	29.3%	22.2%	106	-0.07	2.96	523	70
Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 3.09 FIP	28	SW	3.09	28.6%	8.4%	2.4%	.303	1.71	35.2%	30.1%	160	-1.38	0.60	495	69
Leonel Campos R 2026 · 2.63 FIP	28	SU	2.63	30.1%	11.1%	1.2%	.259	3.62	25.2%	12.2%	118	+0.99	2.63	168	69
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	69
Cody Allen R 2026 · 3.20 FIP	28	SW	3.20	32.6%	7.4%	3.5%	.300	4.96	27.0%	14.6%	90	+1.76	1.58	295	69
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	28	SW	3.82	28.1%	7.5%	3.9%	.229	3.42	24.6%	15.8%	190	-0.40	2.29	332	69
Trevor May R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	28	SW	3.59	26.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.291	3.53	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.06	3.04	432	69
Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.34	2.42	125	68
Conor Mullee R 2026 · 2.17 FIP	28	SU	2.17	28.9%	8.4%	0.8%	.250	3.56	14.9%	8.1%	18	+1.39	2.17	110	68
Alex Powers R 2025 · 2.87 FIP	27	SU	2.87	27.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.272	4.22	25.0%	14.7%	48	+1.35	2.81	264	68
Arodys Vizcaíno R 2025 · 3.61 FIP	27	SU	3.61	25.3%	8.9%	2.8%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.27	183	68
Jumbo Diaz R 2029 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	68
Matt Bush R 2028 · 2.88 FIP	30	SW	2.88	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.96	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.08	2.88	249	68

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.703 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$5M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$7M	+$0.0M