Matt Brash
P
Seattle Mariners
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 173 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.8 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8576vR 67
ERA2.94
FIP2.83
K%29.4%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%21.4%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7896.5
Whiff%
p9032.1%
K%
p5723.4%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
SL+1.9 (60%)
CH+1.0 (13%)
FB+0.8 (27%)
SI (21%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20% | 1.1 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.69 | -0.28 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20% | 1.1 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 0.10 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 97 | 405 | 142 | 48 | 6 | 95% | 4.9 | 27.8% | 13.3% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 2.31 | 3.51 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 97 | 405 | 142 | 48 | 6 | 95% | 4.9 | 35.1% | 11.9% | 23.2% | 1.5% | 2.31 | 2.46 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 5 | 77 | 329 | 103 | 46 | 7 | 8% | 1.3 | 29.8% | 14.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | 4.11 | 3.48 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 5 | 77 | 329 | 103 | 46 | 7 | 8% | 1.3 | 31.3% | 14.0% | 17.3% | 2.1% | 4.11 | 3.40 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 78 | 0 | 71 | 308 | 107 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.7% | 9.4% | 25.3% | 1.0% | 3.06 | 1.92 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 78 | 0 | 71 | 308 | 107 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.7% | 9.4% | 25.3% | 1.0% | 3.06 | 1.85 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 53 | 227 | 63 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.1% | 8.0% | 21.1% | 2.1% | 3.08 | 2.82 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 53 | 227 | 63 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.8% | 7.9% | 19.8% | 2.2% | 3.08 | 2.97 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 22 | 0 | 18 | 71 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 15.6% | 0.0% | 0.49 | 2.11 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 36 | 0 | 38 | 159 | 47 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 8.0% | 21.4% | 2.2% | 2.94 | 2.83 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 47 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.4% | 8.0% | 21.4% | 2.1% | 2.91 | 2.80 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 56 | 230 | 66 | 20 | 3 | — | — | 28.6% | 8.6% | 20.0% | 1.5% | 2.14 | 2.59 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 54 | 230 | 66 | 20 | 3 | — | — | 28.6% | 8.6% | 20.0% | 1.5% | 2.18 | 2.58 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 70 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 8.2% | 21.2% | 2.4% | 3.31 | 3.33 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 65 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 8.5% | 20.2% | 2.6% | 3.44 | 3.53 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 59 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 8.9% | 19.1% | 2.8% | 3.63 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 53 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 9.3% | 17.9% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 67 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.4% | 8.2% | 21.2% | 2.3% | 3.28 | 3.30 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 62 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 8.5% | 20.2% | 2.5% | 3.40 | 3.49 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 56 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 8.9% | 19.1% | 2.7% | 3.59 | 3.72 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 51 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 9.3% | 17.9% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 412 | 5 | 418 | 1776 | 523 | 166 | 35 | 1% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 9.4% | 20.1% | 2.0% | 3.25 | 2.87 | +12.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 2 | 200 | 849 | 250 | 79 | 17 | 1% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 9.4% | 20.1% | 2.0% | 3.25 | 2.87 | +5.9 | ||
| Career | — | 245 | 25 | 321 | 1360 | 408 | 154 | 22 | 10% | 1.3 | 30.0% | 11.3% | 18.7% | 1.6% | 2.92 | 2.90 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 16 | 200 | 847 | 254 | 96 | 14 | 10% | 1.3 | 30.0% | 11.3% | 18.7% | 1.6% | 2.92 | 2.90 | +5.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Brash (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.21 | 31.4% | 8.0% | 2.5% | — | 3.53 | 28.8% | 20.2% | 159 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .302 | 3.78 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.47 | 1.74 | 468 | 78 |
| Jake Cousins R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.23 | 30.9% | 11.9% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.01 | 31.6% | 18.8% | 65 | +0.78 | 1.11 | 160 | 74 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 74 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .277 | 3.68 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | -0.06 | 2.78 | 596 | 73 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.89 | 31.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .247 | 3.43 | 26.8% | 14.0% | 142 | +0.54 | 2.55 | 266 | 73 |
| Matt Bush R 2028 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.10 | 2.86 | 249 | 72 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 72 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2029 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 72 |
| Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.23 | 28.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 1.67 | 35.2% | 30.1% | 160 | -1.56 | 0.60 | 495 | 72 |
| Jay Jackson R 2025 · 2.41 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.41 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 1.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 261 | 71 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.21 | 30.0% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .317 | 3.04 | 29.3% | 22.2% | 106 | -0.17 | 2.81 | 574 | 71 |
| Mychal Givens R 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.68 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 1.2% | .274 | 4.12 | 29.1% | 18.9% | 136 | +1.44 | 1.75 | 526 | 71 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 28.1% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .229 | 3.52 | 24.6% | 15.8% | 190 | -0.31 | 2.39 | 332 | 70 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 2.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.74 | 30.3% | 12.2% | 1.2% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 239 | 70 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 70 |
| Leonel Campos R 2026 · 2.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.69 | 30.1% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .259 | 3.66 | 25.2% | 12.2% | 118 | +0.97 | 2.69 | 168 | 70 |
| Arodys Vizcaíno R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.47 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 183 | 70 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 70 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.70 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 103 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 52 | 29.0% | 8.6% | 1.01 | 3.50 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |
| Keone Kela ('19) | 5 | 43 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 0.92 | 3.23 |
| Pedro Báez ('19) | 5 | 63 | 26.1% | 8.3% | 0.97 | 3.06 |
| Joe Jiménez ('24) | 7 | 53 | 29.8% | 8.6% | 1.11 | 4.06 |
| Will Smith ('24) | 8 | 56 | 29.2% | 8.8% | 1.07 | 3.60 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |