Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 12 | 0 | 14 | 51 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.7% | 9.8% | 20.9% | 0.0% | 0.63 | 1.75 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 12 | 0 | 14 | 51 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 45.1% | 7.8% | 37.3% | 0.0% | 0.63 | 0.73 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 55 | 254 | 69 | 42 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.6% | 18.6% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 3.74 | 3.82 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 55 | 254 | 69 | 42 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.2% | 16.5% | 10.6% | 0.4% | 3.74 | 3.12 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 47 | 203 | 71 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.1% | 14.0% | 16.0% | 0.9% | 3.61 | 2.84 | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 47 | 203 | 71 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.0% | 13.3% | 21.7% | 1.0% | 3.61 | 2.36 | — |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 46 | 203 | 62 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.3% | 9.4% | 17.8% | 1.3% | 2.96 | 2.73 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 46 | 203 | 62 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.5% | 9.4% | 21.2% | 2.0% | 2.96 | 2.77 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 69 | 302 | 80 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 14.5% | 1.7% | 4.30 | 3.24 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 69 | 302 | 80 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 16.9% | 1.7% | 4.30 | 2.98 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 2 | 35 | 160 | 40 | 16 | 7 | 6% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 4.4% | 4.67 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 2 | 35 | 160 | 40 | 16 | 7 | 6% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 4.4% | 4.67 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 53 | 226 | 64 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 4.1% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 53 | 226 | 64 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 9.7% | 18.6% | 4.0% | 4.39 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 52 | 226 | 54 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.3% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 4.64 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 52 | 226 | 54 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 4.64 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 37 | 1 | 39 | 189 | 47 | 27 | 5 | 3% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 15.0% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 6.52 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | LAA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 243 | 65 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | LAA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 96 | 432 | 112 | 56 | 14 | — | — | 25.9% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 5.32 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 6 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 26.6% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 56 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 4.84 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 48 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 4.3% | 5.19 | 5.43 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | LAA | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 40 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 5.57 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 4.84 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.6% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 4.3% | 5.19 | 5.43 | — |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.6% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 5.57 | 5.83 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 126 | 2 | 131 | 567 | 136 | 56 | 26 | 2% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 4.6% | 4.98 | 4.89 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 3 | 200 | 867 | 208 | 86 | 40 | 2% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 4.6% | 4.98 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 366 | 3 | 411 | 1814 | 457 | 228 | 41 | 1% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 2.3% | 4.16 | 3.82 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 1 | 200 | 883 | 222 | 111 | 20 | 1% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 2.3% | 4.16 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kaleb Ort (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 26.6% | 12.0% | 3.6% | — | 5.41 | 24.7% | 11.6% | 138 | +0.69 | — | — | — |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 78 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.83 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.59 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.83 | 208 | 76 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.93 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 277 | 75 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 75 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 75 |
| Bud Norris R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 73 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.03 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 533 | 71 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 70 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 26.8% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .380 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 268 | 70 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 187 | 69 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 67 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.88 | 27.3% | 10.7% | 5.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.55 | 266 | 66 |
| Radhames Liz R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 66 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.37 | 22.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .306 | 5.16 | 16.3% | 4.9% | 41 | +0.79 | 3.11 | 113 | 66 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.72 | 23.7% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .253 | 5.26 | 25.0% | 13.8% | 32 | +1.54 | 3.41 | 212 | 65 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 65 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 176 | 65 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 65 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .323 | 5.60 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 16 | +1.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 25.3% | 12.8% | 1.58 | 4.98 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Michael Feliz ('21) | 5 | 47 | 30.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 | 5.05 |