Kaleb Ort

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 248 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	32	MIX2 levels	52	0	53	4.39	4.13	28.3%	9.7%	0.3	K 26.0% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.38
2025	33	MIX2 levels	56	0	52	4.64	5.30	23.9%	13.7%	-0.5	K 25.3% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.99
2026	34	AAALAA	57	1	58	6.05	4.48	25.4%	12.5%	—	K 21.8% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.62
2027PROJ	35	MLBLAA	6	0	6	4.50	4.77	24.9%	11.8%	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.88	5.14	23.9%	12.4%	—
2029PROJMLE	37	MLBLAA	—	—	0	5.28	5.54	22.8%	13.0%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo77

xwOBA vs75

K%67

CompsBrendan Donnelly (age 35) · Mark Serrano (age 33) · Joe Nelson (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 95

ERA4.50

FIP4.77

K%24.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p7529.2%

p6725.3%

xwOBA vs

p750.288

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	25	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	12	0	14	51	23	4	0	0%	1.2	30.7%	9.8%	20.9%	0.0%	0.63	1.75	—
2017	25	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	12	0	14	51	23	4	0	0%	1.2	45.1%	7.8%	37.3%	0.0%	0.63	0.73	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	55	254	69	42	1	0%	1.6	21.6%	18.6%	3.0%	0.4%	3.74	3.86	—
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	55	254	69	42	1	0%	1.6	27.2%	16.5%	10.6%	0.4%	3.74	3.12	—
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	47	203	71	27	2	0%	1.4	30.1%	14.0%	16.0%	1.0%	3.61	2.88	—
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	47	203	71	27	2	0%	1.4	35.0%	13.3%	21.7%	1.0%	3.61	2.36	—
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	46	203	62	19	4	0%	1.1	27.3%	9.4%	17.8%	1.7%	2.96	2.91	+0.9
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	46	203	62	19	4	0%	1.1	30.5%	9.4%	21.2%	2.0%	2.96	2.77	+1.0
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	69	302	80	29	5	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.9%	14.5%	1.7%	4.30	3.25	+1.1
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	69	302	80	29	5	0%	1.1	26.5%	9.6%	16.9%	1.7%	4.30	2.98	+1.3
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	2	35	160	40	16	7	6%	1.0	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	4.5%	4.67	4.80	-0.1
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	2	35	160	40	16	7	6%	1.0	25.0%	10.0%	15.0%	4.4%	4.67	4.80	-0.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	53	226	64	22	9	0%	1.0	26.0%	8.9%	17.0%	4.3%	4.39	4.38	+0.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	53	226	64	22	9	0%	1.0	26.0%	8.9%	17.0%	4.3%	4.39	4.38	+0.1
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	53	226	64	22	9	0%	1.0	28.3%	9.7%	18.6%	4.0%	4.39	4.13	+0.3
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	52	226	54	31	10	0%	0.9	25.3%	13.4%	11.9%	4.2%	4.64	4.99	-0.3
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	52	226	54	31	10	0%	0.9	25.3%	13.4%	11.9%	4.2%	4.64	4.99	-0.3
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	52	226	54	31	10	0%	0.9	23.9%	13.7%	10.2%	4.4%	4.64	5.30	-0.5
2026	34	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	57	1	58	280	71	35	9	2%	1.0	21.8%	11.2%	10.6%	3.5%	6.05	4.62	—
2026	34	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	57	1	58	280	71	35	9	2%	1.0	21.8%	11.2%	10.6%	3.5%	6.05	4.62	—
2026	34	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	57	1	58	280	71	35	9	2%	1.0	25.4%	12.5%	12.9%	3.2%	6.05	4.48	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			118	2	122	531	126	52	25	2%	1.0	23.7%	9.8%	13.9%	4.7%	5.00	4.97	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	LAA	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.8%	13.2%	3.5%	4.50	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	LAA	30	0	32	134	32	17	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.4%	11.5%	3.8%	4.88	5.14	-0.2
2029	37	MLB MLE	LAA	14	0	15	64	15	8	3	0%	1.1	22.8%	13.0%	9.8%	4.3%	5.28	5.54	-0.2
2030	38	MLB MLE	LAA	6	0	7	28	6	4	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.7%	7.9%	4.7%	5.70	5.97	-0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.9%	12.4%	11.5%	3.8%	4.88	5.14	—
2029	37	MLB CTX	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	13.0%	9.8%	4.3%	5.28	5.54	—
2030	38	MLB CTX	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.6%	13.7%	7.9%	4.7%	5.70	5.97	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		118	2	123	532	126	52	25	2%	1.0	23.7%	9.8%	13.9%	4.7%	5.00	4.92	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	3	200	868	205	85	41	2%	1.0	23.7%	9.8%	13.9%	4.7%	5.00	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		386	3	430	1905	475	227	48	1%	1.1	24.9%	11.9%	13.0%	2.5%	4.21	3.89	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		180	1	200	886	221	106	22	1%	1.1	24.9%	11.9%	13.0%	2.5%	4.21	3.89	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 58 IPFIP 4.31 → 4.62 (+0.32)K% 25.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.36%	—	×0.860	21.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.54%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.31 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 6 IPFIP 7.19 → 7.67 (+0.48)K% 15.6% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.62%	—	×0.860	13.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.62%	—	×0.900	14.06%
HR / BF /BF	6.25%	÷0.961	×1.100	7.15%

Result: FIP 7.19 → 7.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 29 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.57 (+0.35)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.860	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.53%	—	×0.900	12.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.50%	÷0.903	×1.100	1.83%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 12 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.76 (+0.26)K% 30.2% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.19%	—	×0.860	25.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.09%	—	×0.900	13.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.008	×1.100	2.06%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 41 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.40 (+0.44)K% 31.5% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.55%	—	×0.880	27.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.050	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.60%	÷0.939	×1.100	0.70%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 45 IPFIP 2.72 → 2.91 (+0.19)K% 31.0% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.00%	—	×0.880	27.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.00%	—	×1.050	9.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.318	×1.100	1.67%

Result: FIP 2.72 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 33 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.44 (+0.45)K% 34.0% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.00%	—	×0.880	29.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×1.050	16.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.087	×1.100	1.35%

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATrenton Thunder · 14 IPFIP 0.63 → 1.31 (+0.68)K% 37.7% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.74%	—	×0.810	30.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.66%	—	×1.100	6.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.960	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 0.63 → 1.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kaleb Ort (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	24.9%	11.8%	3.5%	—	5.27	23.5%	11.0%	47	+0.50	—	—	—
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	74
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	72
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	71
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	69
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	69
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	67
Toby Borland R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	35	SU	4.28	20.9%	8.1%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	248	67
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	66
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	66
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	66
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	66
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	65
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	63
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	63
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	62
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	58
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	58
Radhames Liz R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	34	SU	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	219	57
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	34	SU	4.50	21.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	212	57
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	35	SU	3.72	26.2%	8.6%	3.2%	.303	5.02	17.5%	4.8%	12	+1.30	3.45	132	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	30	23.9%	11.3%	1.64	4.89
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Jeff Jones ('80-'84, -2 WAR*)	1.0	41	22.0%*	12.4%*	1.48*	4.53*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*