Jason Adam
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+1.1
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'3" / 229 lbs
AAA
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.1 · 2026
ERA2.93
FIP3.39
xFIP5.34
SIERA4.69
K%26.5%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%18.5%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2026
K†6565
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p9033.3%
K%
p7025.9%
xwOBA vs
p900.260
SL+2.3 (45%)
FB (23%)
CH-0.6 (33%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 13 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 25 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.80 | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 48 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 69 | 25 | 9 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 4.15 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 37 | 1 | 39 | 161 | 42 | 16 | 3 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 2.54 | 3.37 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 13 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 36.2% | 13.8% | 3.7% | 3.29 | 3.80 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 20 | 1 | 20 | 88 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 38.0% | 12.0% | 1.9% | 3.60 | 2.48 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 67 | 0 | 63 | 237 | 75 | 15 | 5 | 31.6% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 1.56 | 2.40 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 56 | 0 | 54 | 222 | 69 | 20 | 7 | 31.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 2.98 | 3.26 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 74 | 0 | 74 | 282 | 81 | 19 | 5 | 28.7% | 6.7% | 1.6% | 1.95 | 2.41 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 65 | 0 | 65 | 270 | 70 | 22 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 1.93 | 2.66 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 8 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | SD | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 66 | 19 | 5 | 27.5% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 2.85 | 3.38 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 34 | MLB | SD | — | — | 64 | 266 | 67 | 22 | 5 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 2.51 | 2.98 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SD | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 63 | 19 | 5 | 26.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 3.26 | 3.53 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 57 | 19 | 5 | 26.0% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 3.52 | 3.70 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | SD | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 51 | 18 | 5 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 3.73 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 38 | MLB | SD | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 46 | 17 | 5 | 24.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 39 | MLB | SD | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 40 | MLB | SD | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 401 | 2 | 408 | 1647 | 476 | 144 | 39 | 28.9% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 2.58 | 3.08 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 196 | 1 | 200 | 807 | 233 | 71 | 19 | 28.9% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 2.58 | 3.08 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Adam (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.38 | 27.5% | 8.1% | 2.2% | — | 3.69 | 26.0% | 17.5% | 156 | +0.31 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.63 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 316 | 75 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.94 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .244 | 2.97 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.03 | 1.43 | 240 | 72 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.19 | 27.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .197 | 4.64 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 94 | +1.45 | 3.13 | 244 | 72 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 2.16 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.16 | 29.4% | 5.9% | 1.5% | .304 | 3.45 | 26.9% | 19.8% | 129 | +1.29 | 2.00 | 380 | 72 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.52 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.56 | 2.57 | 251 | 71 |
| Daniel Bard R 2027 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 71 |
| David Robertson R 2025 · 2.77 FIP | 33 | SW | 2.77 | 32.2% | 8.8% | 2.3% | .244 | 3.72 | 32.0% | 24.0% | 12 | +0.95 | 2.00 | 494 | 70 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.81 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.64 | 3.81 | 208 | 69 |
| Will Harris R 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.98 | 27.1% | 6.1% | 2.5% | .245 | 4.44 | 25.0% | 14.3% | 18 | +1.46 | 2.15 | 315 | 69 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 2.74 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.74 | 24.9% | 5.0% | 2.0% | .270 | 3.28 | 22.4% | 15.6% | 180 | +0.54 | 2.26 | 602 | 68 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.91 | 27.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .339 | 5.16 | 23.1% | 16.2% | 121 | +2.25 | 2.91 | 864 | 67 |
| Luis Ayala R 2029 · 3.03 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.03 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.25 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.22 | 3.01 | 119 | 66 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.85 | 26.8% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .380 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 268 | 65 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.18 | 23.7% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .253 | 5.14 | 25.0% | 13.8% | 32 | +0.96 | 3.38 | 212 | 65 |
| Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.45 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 426 | 65 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.10 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 277 | 65 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.77 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 533 | 65 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 65 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.50 | 26.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | .195 | 2.95 | 25.0% | 16.3% | 92 | -0.55 | 2.52 | 417 | 64 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2018
Service 5.767 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $7M | +1.1 | $9M | +$2M |
| Totals | $7M | $9M | +$2M | ||