Jason Adam
P
San Diego Padres
Age 34
RHP
6'3" / 229 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 22 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 81
ERA3.38
FIP3.50
K%23.3%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%16.0%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p1016.4%
xwOBA vs
p750.288
SL+2.3 (45%)
FB (23%)
CH-0.6 (32%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.7% | 9.5% | 30.2% | 0.0% | 4.80 | 0.96 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.7% | 9.5% | 30.2% | 0.0% | 4.80 | 0.97 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 69 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 5.0% | 4.15 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 69 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.0% | 10.5% | 18.5% | 3.8% | 4.15 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 37 | 1 | 39 | 161 | 42 | 16 | 3 | 3% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 2.54 | 3.39 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 37 | 1 | 39 | 161 | 42 | 16 | 3 | 3% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 9.9% | 16.1% | 1.9% | 2.54 | 3.18 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 13 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 36.2% | 13.8% | 22.4% | 3.4% | 3.29 | 3.64 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 13 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 36.2% | 13.8% | 22.4% | 3.4% | 3.29 | 3.69 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 1 | 20 | 88 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 5% | 1.0 | 38.0% | 12.0% | 26.0% | 2.0% | 3.60 | 2.48 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 1 | 20 | 88 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 5% | 1.0 | 31.8% | 9.1% | 22.7% | 1.1% | 3.60 | 2.15 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 67 | 0 | 63 | 237 | 75 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.6% | 6.3% | 25.3% | 2.2% | 1.56 | 2.45 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 67 | 0 | 63 | 237 | 75 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.6% | 6.3% | 25.3% | 2.1% | 1.56 | 2.47 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 56 | 0 | 54 | 222 | 69 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 9.0% | 22.1% | 3.3% | 2.98 | 3.45 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 56 | 0 | 54 | 222 | 69 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 9.0% | 22.1% | 3.2% | 2.98 | 3.34 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 74 | 0 | 74 | 282 | 81 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 6.7% | 22.0% | 1.9% | 1.95 | 2.57 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 74 | 0 | 74 | 282 | 81 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 6.7% | 22.0% | 1.8% | 1.95 | 2.56 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 65 | 0 | 65 | 270 | 70 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 8.1% | 17.8% | 1.6% | 1.93 | 2.82 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 65 | 0 | 65 | 270 | 70 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 8.1% | 17.8% | 1.5% | 1.93 | 2.76 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 40 | 0 | 37 | 152 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.4% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 2.17 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | SD | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 7.3% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 3.38 | 3.50 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | SD | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 7.3% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 3.38 | 3.50 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | SD | — | — | 59 | 245 | 45 | 17 | 7 | — | — | 18.2% | 6.8% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 2.62 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | SD | — | — | 54 | 229 | 45 | 17 | 7 | — | — | 19.5% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 2.86 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SD | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 52 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SD | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 4.27 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | SD | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 37 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 4.64 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SD | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 52 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SD | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 4.27 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | SD | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 37 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 4.64 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 532 | 0 | 530 | 2173 | 567 | 178 | 61 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 8.2% | 17.9% | 2.8% | 3.12 | 3.48 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 0 | 200 | 820 | 214 | 67 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 8.2% | 17.9% | 2.8% | 3.12 | 3.48 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 433 | 2 | 438 | 1771 | 500 | 150 | 47 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 8.5% | 19.7% | 2.7% | 2.59 | 3.25 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 198 | 1 | 200 | 809 | 228 | 69 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 8.5% | 19.7% | 2.7% | 2.59 | 3.25 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Adam (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.39 | 28.0% | 7.8% | 2.3% | — | 4.47 | 22.5% | 14.1% | 141 | +1.08 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 77 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 75 |
| Bud Norris R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 74 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.83 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.59 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.83 | 208 | 74 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 74 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 74 |
| Luis Ayala R 2029 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 73 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.49 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .262 | 3.63 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | +0.14 | 2.35 | 140 | 72 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 72 |
| Daniel Bard R 2027 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 72 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.15 | 27.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .197 | 4.85 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 94 | +1.70 | 3.15 | 244 | 70 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.39 | 19.1% | 5.0% | 2.3% | .328 | 4.71 | 25.2% | 13.8% | 37 | +1.32 | 3.39 | 382 | 70 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 2.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.77 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 0.7% | .310 | 3.26 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 74 | +0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 69 |
| Francisco Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .248 | 7.10 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 25 | +3.26 | 2.85 | 141 | 68 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 2.63 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.63 | 24.9% | 5.0% | 1.8% | .270 | 3.31 | 22.4% | 15.6% | 180 | +0.68 | 2.40 | 617 | 68 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 26.8% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .380 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 268 | 67 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.82 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 0.7% | .296 | 2.96 | 25.0% | 17.3% | 56 | +0.14 | 2.82 | 284 | 67 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 2.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.67 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 0.7% | .327 | 5.44 | 11.5% | 0.9% | 30 | +2.77 | 2.66 | 259 | 67 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.03 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 533 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 24.0% | 8.2% | 1.18 | 3.98 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |