Jason Adam — OGILVIE

Jason Adam P San Diego Padres

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 229 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9789vR 80

ERA3.24

FIP3.34

K%23.3%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%16.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p1016.4%

xwOBA vs

p750.288

SL+2.3 (45%)

FB (23%)

CH-0.6 (32%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	0	15	63	25	6	0	0%	1.2	39.7%	9.5%	30.2%	0.0%	4.80	0.96	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	0	15	63	25	6	0	0%	1.2	39.7%	9.5%	30.2%	0.0%	4.80	0.97	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	56	238	69	25	9	0%	1.2	25.9%	11.0%	14.9%	5.0%	4.15	5.06	-0.3
2018	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	56	238	69	25	9	0%	1.2	29.0%	10.5%	18.5%	3.8%	4.15	4.06	+0.3
2019	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	1	39	161	42	16	3	3%	1.1	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.2%	2.54	3.39	+0.5
2019	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	37	1	39	161	42	16	3	3%	1.1	26.1%	9.9%	16.1%	1.9%	2.54	3.18	+0.6
2020	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	13	0	14	58	21	8	2	0%	1.1	36.2%	13.8%	22.4%	3.6%	3.29	3.76	+0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	13	0	14	58	21	8	2	0%	1.1	36.2%	13.8%	22.4%	3.4%	3.29	3.69	+0.1
2021	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	1	20	88	28	8	1	5%	1.0	38.0%	12.0%	26.0%	2.1%	3.60	2.55	+0.5
2021	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	1	20	88	28	8	1	5%	1.0	31.8%	9.1%	22.7%	1.1%	3.60	2.15	+0.6
2022	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	67	0	63	237	75	15	5	0%	0.9	31.6%	6.3%	25.3%	2.2%	1.56	2.42	+1.6
2022	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	67	0	63	237	75	15	5	0%	0.9	31.6%	6.3%	25.3%	2.1%	1.56	2.47	+1.6
2023	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	56	0	54	222	69	20	7	0%	1.0	31.1%	9.0%	22.1%	3.2%	2.98	3.40	+0.7
2023	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	56	0	54	222	69	20	7	0%	1.0	31.1%	9.0%	22.1%	3.2%	2.98	3.40	+0.7
2023	31	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	56	0	54	222	69	20	7	0%	1.0	31.1%	9.0%	22.1%	3.2%	2.98	3.34	+0.8
2024	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	74	0	74	282	81	19	5	0%	1.0	28.7%	6.7%	22.0%	1.7%	1.95	2.48	+1.8
2024	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	74	0	74	282	81	19	5	0%	1.0	28.7%	6.7%	22.0%	1.7%	1.95	2.48	+1.8
2024	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	74	0	74	282	81	19	5	0%	1.0	28.7%	6.7%	22.0%	1.8%	1.95	2.56	+1.8
2025	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	65	0	65	270	70	22	4	0%	1.0	25.9%	8.1%	17.8%	1.4%	1.93	2.74	+1.4
2025	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	65	0	65	270	70	22	4	0%	1.0	25.9%	8.1%	17.8%	1.4%	1.93	2.74	+1.4
2025	33	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	65	0	65	270	70	22	4	0%	1.0	25.9%	8.1%	17.8%	1.5%	1.93	2.76	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			377	0	367	1486	412	121	39	0%	1.0	27.7%	8.1%	19.6%	2.6%	2.67	3.23	+5.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	40	0	37	152	23	10	5	0%	0.9	16.4%	6.0%	10.4%	3.6%	2.17	4.47	+0.0
YTD	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	40	0	37	152	23	10	5	0%	0.9	16.4%	6.0%	10.4%	3.6%	2.17	4.47	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	AAA RAW	SD	4	0	5	18	1	2	0	0%	1.2	5.6%	11.1%	-5.6%	0.0%	0.00	4.04	—
2026	34	MLB RAW	SD	36	0	32	134	22	8	5	0%	0.9	16.4%	6.0%	10.4%	3.7%	2.51	4.52	+0.0
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	SD	36	0	32	134	22	8	5	0%	0.9	16.4%	6.0%	10.4%	3.7%	2.51	4.52	+0.0
ROS	34	MLB MLE	SD	4	0	5	20	5	1	0	0%	1.2	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	2.3%	3.24	3.34	+0.1
ROS	34	MLB CTX	SD	5	0	5	21	5	2	0	0%	1.0	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	2.3%	3.24	3.34	+0.1
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	42	172	28	11	5	—	—	16.1%	6.7%	9.4%	3.2%	2.29	4.34	+0.1
FULL	34	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	37	156	28	11	5	—	—	17.7%	7.3%	10.3%	3.5%	2.60	4.46	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	SD	50	0	53	224	52	17	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	7.8%	15.6%	2.9%	3.91	4.08	+0.3
2028	36	MLB MLE	SD	45	0	47	198	44	17	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	8.4%	14.0%	3.3%	4.24	4.45	+0.1
2029	37	MLB MLE	SD	39	0	41	173	37	16	6	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.1%	12.3%	3.7%	4.61	4.85	-0.1
2027	35	MLB CTX	SD	50	0	53	224	52	17	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	7.8%	15.6%	2.9%	3.91	4.08	+0.3
2028	36	MLB CTX	SD	45	0	47	198	44	17	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	8.4%	14.0%	3.3%	4.24	4.45	+0.1
2029	37	MLB CTX	SD	39	0	41	173	37	16	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.1%	12.3%	3.7%	4.61	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		516	0	513	2100	550	172	59	0%	1.0	26.2%	8.2%	18.0%	2.8%	3.10	3.46	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	0	200	819	215	67	23	0%	1.0	26.2%	8.2%	18.0%	2.8%	3.10	3.46	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		433	2	438	1771	500	150	46	0%	1.0	28.2%	8.5%	19.7%	2.6%	2.59	3.22	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		198	1	200	809	228	69	21	0%	1.0	28.2%	8.5%	19.7%	2.6%	2.59	3.22	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jason Adam (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.34	28.0%	7.8%	2.3%	—	4.43	22.5%	14.1%	141	+1.09	—	—	—
Jim Johnson R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	34	SU	3.89	23.8%	8.6%	3.1%	.309	4.48	16.8%	9.0%	63	+0.59	2.56	251	84
Bud Norris R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	33	SU	3.65	27.3%	7.3%	3.5%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	316	82
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	77
Dustin McGowan R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	22.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.230	4.58	19.4%	12.7%	78	+0.76	3.82	208	76
Matt Albers R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	34	SU	3.15	27.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.197	4.64	21.5%	12.7%	94	+1.49	3.15	244	76
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	4.12	186	76
David Hernandez R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	34	SU	3.72	26.8%	8.6%	3.3%	.380	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	268	75
Jumbo Diaz R 2018 · 2.80 FIP	34	SU	2.80	23.2%	10.4%	0.6%	.296	2.98	25.0%	17.3%	56	+0.18	2.80	284	74
Fernando Salas R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	34	SU	4.28	20.8%	5.3%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	288	74
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	74
Luis García R 2021 · 2.72 FIP	34	SU	2.72	24.9%	5.0%	2.0%	.270	3.26	22.4%	15.6%	180	+0.54	2.33	617	74
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	74
Will Harris R 2019 · 3.07 FIP	34	SU	3.07	27.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.245	4.31	25.0%	14.3%	18	+1.24	2.17	315	73
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	73
Brandon Kintzler R 2019 · 3.13 FIP	34	SU	3.13	21.1%	4.4%	2.3%	.244	4.77	14.8%	8.9%	54	+1.64	2.47	332	73
Luis Ayala R 2015 · 3.03 FIP	37	SU	3.03	19.7%	5.0%	1.7%	.270	3.27	12.1%	5.9%	57	+0.24	3.03	119	73
Ramon E Ramirez R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	34	SU	3.60	18.4%	6.0%	2.4%	.262	3.49	14.0%	8.2%	40	-0.11	2.37	140	73
Joakim Soria R 2018 · 2.18 FIP	34	SU	2.18	29.4%	5.9%	1.5%	.304	3.49	26.9%	19.8%	129	+1.31	2.01	380	73
Pedro Strop R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	34	SU	4.05	27.5%	10.7%	3.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	277	72
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	24.0%	8.2%	1.15	3.95
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36