Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 4 | 24 | 100 | 43 | 14 | 0 | 50% | 3.0 | 29.9% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 2.96 | 2.46 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 4 | 24 | 100 | 43 | 14 | 0 | 50% | 3.0 | 43.0% | 14.0% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 2.96 | 1.29 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 19 | 87 | 364 | 130 | 53 | 9 | 70% | 3.2 | 29.0% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 3.71 | 4.41 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 19 | 87 | 364 | 130 | 53 | 9 | 70% | 3.2 | 35.7% | 14.6% | 21.2% | 2.5% | 3.71 | 3.28 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 60 | 270 | 81 | 50 | 5 | 100% | 3.5 | 25.9% | 17.1% | 8.8% | 1.9% | 6.00 | 4.12 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 60 | 270 | 81 | 50 | 5 | 100% | 3.5 | 30.0% | 18.5% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 6.00 | 3.98 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 32 | 150 | 42 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 25.0% | -1.1% | 2.3% | 4.55 | 5.50 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 32 | 150 | 42 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 23.3% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 4.55 | 4.99 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 84 | 353 | 124 | 49 | 5 | 100% | 4.0 | 27.4% | 16.3% | 11.2% | 1.5% | 3.44 | 3.65 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 84 | 353 | 124 | 49 | 5 | 100% | 4.0 | 35.1% | 13.9% | 21.2% | 1.4% | 3.44 | 2.67 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 31 | 0 | 27 | 143 | 35 | 43 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.7% | 31.5% | -8.8% | 0.9% | 6.67 | 5.67 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 82 | 57 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 19.2% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 19.2% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 97 | 439 | 117 | 100 | 8 | — | — | 26.7% | 22.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 5.43 | 5.15 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 7 | 30 | 8 | 6 | 1 | — | — | 27.8% | 19.2% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 4.95 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 78 | 53 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 73 | 49 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 17.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 67 | 46 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 17.8% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 5.09 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 33 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 43 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 17.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 48 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 17.8% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 5.09 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 111 | 0 | 117 | 494 | 132 | 89 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 18.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 5.01 | 4.70 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 226 | 152 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 18.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 5.01 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 134 | 61 | 314 | 1380 | 371 | 256 | 27 | 46% | 2.3 | 26.9% | 18.6% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 4.36 | 4.27 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 39 | 200 | 879 | 236 | 163 | 17 | 46% | 2.3 | 26.9% | 18.6% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 4.36 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Griff McGarry (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 27.8% | 19.2% | 2.5% | — | 5.07 | 26.8% | 8.8% | 194 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Sean Isaac R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 77 |
| Brian Keller R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.16 | 22.6% | 19.1% | 1.0% | .288 | 3.75 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 113 | -0.41 | 1.89 | 577 | 70 |
| Fernando Baez R 2024 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 69 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 69 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2024 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.50 | 22.7% | 16.4% | 4.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 181 | 68 |
| Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.02 | 25.6% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 383 | 68 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.07 | 26.7% | 14.7% | 4.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 144 | 68 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .302 | 3.12 | 26.0% | 15.4% | 35 | -0.99 | 3.12 | 187 | 67 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.12 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 4.0% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 414 | 67 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 65 |
| Bailey Dees R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.36 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 330 | 65 |
| Cory Abbott R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.95 | 23.8% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .300 | 5.28 | 22.6% | 11.7% | 151 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 703 | 65 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 65 |
| Deylen Miley R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.05 | 22.3% | 17.5% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 185 | 65 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 64 |
| Austin Vernon R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.1% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 261 | 64 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.91 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 79 | -1.44 | 3.04 | 341 | 64 |
| Cody Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.10 | 23.8% | 16.1% | 1.8% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.26 | 256 | 64 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 64 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 378 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 27.0% | 18.3% | 1.07 | 4.98 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |