Zac Leigh

P Iowa Cubs

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	38	44	3.45	3.69	26.4%	15.6%	—	K 21.8% · BB 15.4% · FIP 4.21
2025	27	AACHC	43	50	4.11	4.33	21.2%	17.6%	—	K 17.1% · BB 19.3% · FIP 5.08
2026	28	MIX2 levels	27	39	6.18	3.89	27.1%	14.1%	—	K 22.5% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.26
2027PROJ	29	MLBCHC	6	6	5.60	5.60	19.8%	18.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBCHC	14	15	5.58	5.65	19.8%	17.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBCHC	17	18	5.64	5.75	19.7%	17.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control20Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDan Winkler (age 29) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Wil Browning (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 123

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%19.8%

BB%18.0%

K-BB%1.8%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	9	34	17	3	0	0%	1.7	50.0%	8.8%	41.2%	0.0%	1.04	-0.00	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	9	34	17	3	0	0%	1.7	50.0%	8.8%	41.2%	0.0%	1.04	0.22	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	35	146	53	16	3	0%	1.3	28.5%	12.3%	16.2%	2.6%	2.86	3.70	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	35	146	53	16	3	0%	1.3	36.3%	11.0%	25.3%	2.1%	2.86	2.55	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	39	164	58	17	4	0%	1.4	28.1%	11.7%	16.3%	3.0%	3.66	3.84	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	39	164	58	17	4	0%	1.4	35.4%	10.4%	25.0%	2.4%	3.66	2.77	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	44	212	56	33	3	0%	1.2	21.8%	15.4%	6.3%	1.8%	3.45	4.21	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	44	212	56	33	3	0%	1.2	21.8%	15.4%	6.3%	1.8%	3.45	4.21	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	44	212	56	33	3	0%	1.2	26.4%	15.6%	10.8%	1.4%	3.45	3.69	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	43	0	50	222	47	39	3	0%	1.2	17.1%	19.3%	-2.2%	1.8%	4.11	5.08	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	43	0	50	222	47	39	3	0%	1.2	17.1%	19.3%	-2.2%	1.8%	4.11	5.08	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	43	0	50	222	47	39	3	0%	1.2	21.2%	17.6%	3.6%	1.4%	4.11	4.33	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	39	177	48	25	4	0%	1.5	22.5%	12.9%	9.7%	2.6%	6.18	4.26	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	39	177	48	25	4	0%	1.5	22.5%	12.9%	9.7%	2.6%	6.18	4.26	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	39	177	48	25	4	0%	1.5	27.1%	14.1%	13.0%	2.3%	6.18	3.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CHC	6	0	6	25	5	5	1	0%	1.0	19.8%	18.0%	1.8%	2.8%	5.60	5.60	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	38	0	40	168	33	29	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	17.4%	2.4%	3.0%	5.58	5.65	-0.5
2029	31	MLB MLE	CHC	30	0	32	135	27	23	4	0%	1.1	19.7%	17.2%	2.5%	3.2%	5.64	5.75	-0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	14	0	15	63	13	11	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	17.4%	2.4%	3.0%	5.58	5.65	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	CHC	17	0	18	76	15	13	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	17.2%	2.5%	3.2%	5.64	5.75	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	0	32	136	27	24	4	0%	1.0	19.7%	17.3%	2.5%	3.1%	5.61	5.32	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	149	25	0%	1.1	19.7%	17.3%	2.5%	3.1%	5.61	5.32	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		169	0	217	955	229	139	21	0%	1.3	24.0%	14.5%	9.4%	2.2%	3.95	4.13	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	0	200	882	211	128	19	0%	1.3	24.0%	14.5%	9.4%	2.2%	3.95	4.13	-2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 36 IPFIP 4.00 → 4.26 (+0.26)K% 26.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.19%	—	×0.860	22.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 50 IPFIP 4.28 → 5.08 (+0.80)K% 21.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.17%	—	×0.810	17.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.57%	—	×1.100	19.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷0.911	×1.200	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 4.28 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 31 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.77 (+0.95)K% 29.9% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.85%	—	×0.810	24.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.19%	—	×1.100	12.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷0.854	×1.200	2.10%

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 13 IPFIP 4.99 → 4.96 (−0.04)K% 20.5% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.51%	—	×0.860	17.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.08%	—	×0.900	20.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷1.079	×1.100	1.31%

Result: FIP 4.99 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATennessee Smokies · 35 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.84 (+0.85)K% 34.7% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.67%	—	×0.810	28.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.67%	—	×1.100	11.73%
HR / BF /BF	2.67%	÷1.082	×1.200	2.96%

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 23 IPFIP 2.48 → 3.67 (+1.19)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷0.938	×1.250	2.78%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.48 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATennessee Smokies · 12 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.76 (+1.08)K% 42.0% → 34.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.00%	—	×0.810	34.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×1.100	17.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.010	×1.200	2.38%

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+South Bend Cubs · 5 IPFIP 1.76 → 2.72 (+0.97)K% 36.4% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.770	28.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.150	15.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.928	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.76 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zac Leigh (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	19.8%	18.0%	2.8%	—	5.69	19.8%	2.5%	72	+0.09	—	—	—
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	76
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	75
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	74
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	74
Jordan Gore R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.2%	18.5%	2.2%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	113	74
Charles Hall R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	18.0%	19.1%	2.0%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.43	181	74
Edwar Ramirez R 2010 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	18.5%	16.7%	2.0%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	109	74
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	73
Josh Martin R 2019 · 6.73 FIP	29	SU	6.73	19.9%	21.8%	4.7%	.230	—	—	—	—	—	2.41	225	73
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	72
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	72
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	72
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	71
Jared Mortensen R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	28	SU	4.99	20.9%	18.8%	2.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	200	71
Kyle Snyder R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	16.9%	12.4%	2.9%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	236	70
Will Carter R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	29	SU	4.94	18.2%	19.5%	1.7%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	335	70
Connor Law R 2021 · 6.15 FIP	27	SU	6.15	16.2%	17.2%	4.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	110	70
Kane Davis R 2005 · 5.15 FIP	30	SU	5.15	15.7%	14.3%	2.9%	.170	4.82	16.9%	6.7%	11	-0.33	3.40	125	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	43	19.8%	17.6%	1.14	5.60
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*