Garrett Hill

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX3 levels	37	6	67	6.58	4.73	25.8%	15.1%	-0.1	K 22.8% · BB 14.1% · FIP 5.05
2024	28	MIX3 levels	44	5	68	4.79	4.15	25.6%	16.3%	—	K 20.7% · BB 16.6% · FIP 4.86
2025	29	AASEA	10	10	42	4.04	4.00	19.0%	16.9%	—	K 15.4% · BB 18.6% · FIP 4.58
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBSEA	1	1	1	6.14	6.22	15.7%	18.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	32	MLBSEA	2	2	12	6.15	6.29	15.6%	18.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	33	MLBSEA	2	2	15	6.25	6.42	15.4%	18.0%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo37

K%18

xwOBA vs10

CompsLuis Mateo (age 29) · Bradin Hagens (age 30) · Scott Copeland (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 135

ERA6.14

FIP6.22

K%15.7%

BB%18.8%

K-BB%-3.2%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2020

CMD2525

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.365

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	9	6	38	163	46	10	2	67%	4.2	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	1.7%	3.11	3.39	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	9	6	38	163	46	10	2	67%	4.2	28.2%	6.1%	22.1%	1.2%	3.11	2.14	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	124	492	129	47	3	100%	5.4	19.9%	11.1%	8.9%	0.8%	2.25	3.25	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	124	492	129	47	3	100%	5.4	26.2%	9.6%	16.7%	0.6%	2.25	2.47	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	76	316	99	28	3	100%	4.5	24.5%	10.0%	14.4%	1.3%	2.74	3.02	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	76	316	99	28	3	100%	4.5	31.3%	8.9%	22.5%	0.9%	2.74	2.11	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	23	130	550	138	54	15	72%	4.1	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.0%	3.60	4.15	+1.9
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	23	130	550	138	54	15	72%	4.1	25.1%	9.8%	15.3%	2.7%	3.60	3.72	+2.6
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	6	67	325	84	49	10	16%	1.8	22.8%	14.1%	8.7%	3.8%	6.58	5.05	-0.4
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	6	67	325	84	49	10	16%	1.8	25.8%	15.1%	10.8%	3.1%	6.58	4.73	-0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	5	68	313	80	51	6	11%	1.5	20.7%	16.6%	4.1%	2.6%	4.79	4.86	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	5	68	313	80	51	6	11%	1.5	20.7%	16.6%	4.1%	2.6%	4.79	4.86	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	5	68	313	80	51	6	11%	1.5	25.6%	16.3%	9.3%	1.9%	4.79	4.15	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	10	10	42	195	37	33	1	100%	4.2	15.4%	18.6%	-3.2%	0.8%	4.04	4.58	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	10	10	42	195	37	33	1	100%	4.2	15.4%	18.6%	-3.2%	0.8%	4.04	4.58	—
2025	29	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	10	10	42	195	37	33	1	100%	4.2	19.0%	16.9%	2.1%	0.5%	4.04	4.00	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			26	8	76	343	54	43	12	31%	2.9	15.7%	12.5%	3.2%	3.5%	5.09	5.43	-0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	SEA	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	15.7%	18.8%	-3.2%	3.1%	6.14	6.22	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SEA	6	6	37	157	25	29	5	100%	6.2	15.6%	18.3%	-2.6%	3.3%	6.15	6.29	-0.4
2029	33	MLB MLE	SEA	5	5	29	123	19	22	4	100%	5.8	15.4%	18.0%	-2.7%	3.6%	6.25	6.42	-0.3
2030	34	MLB MLE	SEA	4	4	25	104	15	19	4	100%	6.2	14.9%	18.1%	-3.2%	3.8%	6.43	6.62	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	SEA	2	2	12	51	8	9	2	100%	6.0	15.6%	18.3%	-2.6%	3.3%	6.15	6.29	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	SEA	2	2	15	63	10	11	2	100%	7.5	15.4%	18.0%	-2.7%	3.6%	6.25	6.42	-0.2
2030	34	MLB CTX	SEA	2	2	12	51	8	9	2	100%	6.0	14.9%	18.1%	-3.2%	3.8%	6.43	6.62	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	14	114	504	79	72	18	44%	3.6	15.6%	14.3%	1.3%	3.5%	5.49	5.53	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		57	25	200	883	138	126	32	44%	3.5	15.6%	14.3%	1.3%	3.5%	5.49	5.53	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		172	90	544	2354	498	289	49	52%	3.2	21.2%	12.3%	8.9%	2.1%	3.69	4.01	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	33	200	865	183	106	18	52%	3.2	21.2%	12.3%	8.9%	2.1%	3.69	4.01	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 42 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.58 (+0.66)K% 19.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.97%	—	×0.810	15.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.92%	—	×1.100	18.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.51%	÷0.800	×1.200	0.77%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 60).

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 28 IPFIP 5.42 → 6.10 (+0.67)K% 21.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.71%	—	×0.860	18.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.38%	—	×0.900	17.44%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷0.792	×1.100	4.31%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 58).

Result: FIP 5.42 → 6.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 22 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.49 (+0.86)K% 33.0% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.00%	—	×0.810	26.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.00%	—	×1.100	15.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷0.941	×1.200	1.27%

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 18 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.59 (+0.94)K% 22.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.62%	—	×0.740	16.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.180	16.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷1.099	×1.300	1.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 46 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.45 (+0.48)K% 28.7% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.70%	—	×0.860	24.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.35%	—	×0.900	12.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.69%	÷0.901	×1.100	3.28%

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 5 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.43 (+0.91)K% 27.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.740	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.180	16.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.216	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 38 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.68 (+0.45)K% 28.7% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.75%	—	×0.880	25.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.050	9.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.026	×1.100	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 32 IPFIP 1.94 → 3.08 (+1.14)K% 40.9% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.94%	—	×0.810	33.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.87%	—	×1.100	8.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.36%	÷0.926	×1.200	3.06%

Result: FIP 1.94 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Hill (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.22	15.7%	18.8%	3.1%	—	6.42	15.3%	-2.8%	91	+0.20	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	67
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	66
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	63
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	59
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	58
David Holman R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	29	SW	5.80	8.9%	10.7%	3.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	5.28	129	58
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	57
Seth Frankoff R 2021 · 7.41 FIP	32	SP-	7.41	18.8%	13.5%	7.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	263	55
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	54
Brian Boehringer R 2000 · 6.75 FIP	31	SW	6.75	12.2%	13.5%	5.4%	.275	3.95	18.8%	10.3%	211	-2.80	3.31	535	52
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	51
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	51
Ariel Peña R 2019 · 6.07 FIP	30	SP	6.07	19.9%	25.6%	2.6%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	223	50
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	50
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	49
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	48
R.A. Dickey R 2005 · 5.40 FIP	30	SW	5.40	11.2%	12.7%	3.0%	.255	4.96	11.6%	2.2%	112	-0.44	3.14	2,070	47
Wes Parsons R 2024 · 5.24 FIP	31	SW	5.24	25.2%	15.4%	4.2%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	483	46
Randy Wynne R 2024 · 5.75 FIP	31	SP-	5.75	13.6%	6.0%	5.5%	.283	6.55	10.7%	7.2%	60	+0.80	4.35	461	45
Dallas Beeler R 2018 · 7.35 FIP	29	SP-	7.35	10.0%	8.5%	7.3%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	122	44

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	44	15.6%	16.3%	1.32	5.83
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*