Carson Ragsdale
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'8" / 235 lbs
AAA
ERA5.47
FIP5.47
xFIP5.22
SIERA4.48
K%20.5%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%9.0%
IP92
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†4550
SI (23%)
CU (32%)
SL-1.1 (7%)
FB-1.8 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 24 | 24 | 114 | 494 | 167 | 45 | 13 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.22 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 7 | 7 | 28 | 111 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 29.1% | 6.2% | 1.1% | 2.93 | 2.01 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 27 | 26 | 121 | 506 | 147 | 57 | 19 | 24.3% | 12.1% | 4.2% | 4.18 | 4.89 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 28 | 19 | 95 | 419 | 81 | 48 | 20 | 17.2% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 5.70 | 6.28 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 75 | 50 | 16 | 19.4% | 12.8% | 4.1% | 5.73 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 74 | 47 | 15 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 4.1% | 5.61 | 5.63 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 87 | 367 | 72 | 44 | 15 | 19.5% | 12.1% | 4.0% | 5.55 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 69 | 43 | 14 | 19.4% | 12.0% | 4.1% | 5.55 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 81 | 340 | 65 | 41 | 14 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 4.1% | 5.59 | 5.65 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 68 | 37 | 14 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 5.52 | 5.47 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 63 | 36 | 13 | 20.5% | 11.6% | 4.3% | 5.56 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 59 | 34 | 13 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 5.65 | 5.70 | -0.5 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 54 | 33 | 12 | 19.7% | 12.1% | 4.5% | 5.76 | 5.84 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 80 | 362 | 1555 | 360 | 177 | 62 | 23.2% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 4.50 | 4.79 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 44 | 200 | 858 | 199 | 98 | 34 | 23.2% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 4.50 | 4.79 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Ragsdale (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.73 | 19.4% | 12.8% | 4.1% | — | 5.60 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 261 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 67 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 5.94 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.94 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 239 | 67 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 28 | SP- | 6.02 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 223 | 66 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.94 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 5.2% | .298 | 4.62 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 249 | -1.32 | 2.90 | 806 | 65 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 65 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 63 |
| Kaleb Roper R 2024 · 5.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.69 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 4.7% | .398 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.69 | 146 | 63 |
| Brad Allen R 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.86 | 14.7% | 13.2% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 149 | 63 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 63 |
| Chris Ellis R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.40 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 4.6% | .274 | 6.38 | 12.5% | -2.7% | 64 | +0.98 | 3.88 | 780 | 62 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 62 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 62 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 62 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 61 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 60 |
| Vance Worley R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.65 | 15.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | .278 | 4.81 | 12.2% | 4.4% | 133 | +0.16 | 3.81 | 411 | 60 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.38 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 60 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.39 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 109 | 60 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.89 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 234 | 60 |
| Warwick Saupold R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 389 | 60 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.