Carson Ragsdale — OGILVIE

Carson Ragsdale P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 28 RHP 6'8" / 235 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%17.6%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4040

SI (23%)

CU (32%)

SL-1.1 (7%)

FB-1.8 (52%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	24	24	114	494	167	45	13	100%	4.7	25.0%	10.7%	14.3%	3.4%	4.43	4.21	—
2021	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	24	24	114	494	167	45	13	100%	4.7	33.8%	9.1%	24.7%	2.6%	4.43	2.84	—
2022	24	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	5	4	6	25	9	3	0	80%	1.1	36.0%	12.0%	24.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.58	—
2022	24	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	5	4	6	25	9	3	0	80%	1.1	36.0%	12.0%	24.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.51	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	7	7	28	111	42	6	1	100%	4.0	29.1%	6.2%	22.9%	1.0%	2.93	2.00	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	7	7	28	111	42	6	1	100%	4.0	29.1%	6.2%	22.9%	1.0%	2.93	2.00	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	7	7	28	111	42	6	1	100%	4.0	37.8%	5.4%	32.4%	0.9%	2.93	1.18	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	121	506	147	57	19	96%	4.5	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	4.2%	4.18	4.82	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	121	506	147	57	19	96%	4.5	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	4.2%	4.18	4.82	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	121	506	147	57	19	96%	4.5	29.1%	11.3%	17.8%	3.8%	4.18	4.13	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	95	419	81	48	20	68%	3.4	16.2%	10.7%	5.5%	5.5%	5.70	6.12	-1.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	95	419	81	48	20	68%	3.4	16.2%	10.7%	5.5%	5.5%	5.70	6.12	-1.3
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	19	95	419	81	48	20	68%	3.4	19.3%	11.5%	7.9%	4.8%	5.70	5.66	-0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	5	25	4	1	1	0%	2.5	16.0%	4.0%	12.0%	4.0%	14.40	4.70	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	BAL	1	1	6	25	4	3	1	100%	6.0	17.6%	12.1%	5.5%	4.1%	5.78	5.78	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	66	280	50	34	12	100%	6.0	17.9%	12.0%	5.9%	4.2%	5.72	5.77	-0.6
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	62	263	47	32	11	100%	6.2	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	4.3%	5.75	5.84	-0.6
2027	29	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	24	101	18	12	4	100%	6.0	17.9%	12.0%	5.9%	4.2%	5.72	5.77	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	34	144	26	17	6	100%	5.7	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	4.3%	5.75	5.84	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	10	64	273	48	31	11	83%	5.3	17.8%	11.3%	6.4%	4.2%	6.42	5.34	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	31	200	857	151	97	35	83%	5.4	17.8%	11.3%	6.4%	4.2%	6.42	5.34	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		91	80	362	1555	353	165	62	88%	4.0	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	4.0%	4.50	4.72	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	44	200	858	195	91	34	88%	4.0	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	4.0%	4.50	4.72	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Ragsdale (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	17.6%	12.1%	4.1%	—	5.80	17.9%	5.9%	128	+0.02	—	—	—
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	75
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	70
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	69
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	66
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	66
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	65
Alex Cobb R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SP	5.26	14.0%	6.9%	4.5%	.366	4.37	16.3%	10.7%	344	-0.89	2.74	844	65
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	64
Noah Bremer R 2023 · 5.82 FIP	27	SP	5.82	13.1%	11.9%	4.2%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	271	63
Jake Walkinshaw R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	27	SP-	6.54	12.7%	9.7%	6.0%	.288	3.94	15.2%	5.6%	118	-2.60	2.84	307	63
Chi Chi González R 2020 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	17.6%	11.0%	2.9%	.306	4.85	13.5%	6.9%	327	+0.24	4.01	800	63
Alex Blackford R 2017 · 5.59 FIP	26	SP	5.59	14.9%	12.5%	4.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	229	63
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	63
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	62
Miller Hogan R 2022 · 6.75 FIP	26	SP	6.75	14.0%	11.9%	6.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	168	62
Chris Ellis R 2021 · 5.41 FIP	28	SP	5.41	19.6%	11.5%	4.6%	.274	6.19	11.8%	-1.3%	64	+0.78	3.84	780	62
Colin Rea R 2018 · 5.61 FIP	28	SP	5.61	17.6%	11.3%	4.7%	.344	4.14	17.7%	9.8%	198	-1.47	2.57	1,112	62
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	61
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	61
Jayden Murray R 2023 · 5.97 FIP	26	SP-	5.97	16.4%	13.6%	4.6%	.385	3.87	20.2%	9.7%	122	-2.10	3.80	363	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	17.8%	12.1%	1.62	5.75
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43