Cade Smith
P
Somerset Patriots
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
K%22.3%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%9.2%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 94 | 386 | 118 | 43 | 6 | 90% | 4.5 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 3.65 | 3.88 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 94 | 386 | 118 | 43 | 6 | 90% | 4.5 | 30.6% | 11.1% | 19.4% | 1.6% | 3.65 | 2.79 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 11 | 40 | 161 | 42 | 18 | 2 | 100% | 3.6 | 20.3% | 13.8% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 2.50 | 4.24 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 11 | 40 | 161 | 42 | 18 | 2 | 100% | 3.6 | 26.1% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 1.2% | 2.50 | 3.00 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 15 | 14 | 74 | 324 | 72 | 32 | 17 | 93% | 4.9 | 18.0% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.99 | 6.41 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 54 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 131 | 565 | 126 | 63 | 24 | — | — | 22.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 4.2% | 4.90 | 5.71 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.3% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.85 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 56 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 56 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 55 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 9 | 55 | 233 | 53 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 9 | 53 | 223 | 50 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.8% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 43 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 45 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 44 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 34 | 34 | 202 | 853 | 195 | 100 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 99 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 44 | 207 | 871 | 181 | 109 | 31 | 94% | 4.4 | 20.7% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 3.91 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 42 | 200 | 840 | 174 | 105 | 30 | 94% | 4.4 | 20.7% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 3.91 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.59 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 172 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 86 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 84 |
| Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.66 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 1.5% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 158 | 84 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 83 |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 82 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 80 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 80 |
| Jaron DeBerry R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.03 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 3.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 175 | 80 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 1.9% | .329 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 5.1% | 59 | +0.81 | 4.45 | 194 | 80 |
| Burch Smith R 2029 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 79 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 79 |
| Shane Davis R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.08 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 129 | 79 |
| Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 253 | 78 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 78 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.89 | 26.6% | 21.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.86 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 231 | -0.03 | 3.93 | 323 | 78 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 78 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 78 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 78 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2029 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 78 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 56 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 1.13 | 4.67 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |