Cade Smith — OGILVIE

Cade Smith P Somerset Patriots

+0.2 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.3 · 2027

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.8%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%12.1%

IP43

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2027

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	21	19	94	386	118	43	6	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	3.65	3.86	+1.5
2025	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	11	11	40	161	42	18	2	20.3%	13.8%	1.9%	2.50	4.20	+0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	2	2	8	39	13	6	3	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	NYY	43	—	43	181	41	19	5	22.8%	10.7%	2.8%	4.45	4.45	+0.2
2026 Total	24	MLB	NYY	—	—	51	220	54	25	8	24.7%	11.6%	3.7%	4.81	3.75	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	NYY	43	—	43	183	42	18	5	23.2%	10.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.34	+0.3
2028	26	MLB	NYY	43	—	43	183	43	18	5	23.4%	10.0%	2.8%	4.34	4.31	+0.3
2029	27	MLB	NYY	43	—	43	182	43	18	5	23.5%	10.0%	2.8%	4.33	4.32	+0.3
2030	28	MLB	NYY	42	—	42	179	42	18	5	23.4%	10.0%	2.9%	4.34	4.35	+0.3
2031	29	MLB	NYY	41	—	41	175	41	18	5	23.3%	10.1%	2.9%	4.37	4.39	+0.3
2032	30	MLB	NYY	40	—	40	170	39	17	5	23.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.42	4.46	+0.2
2033	31	MLB	NYY	39	—	39	164	37	17	5	22.9%	10.3%	3.1%	4.49	4.53	+0.2
2034	32	MLB	NYY	37	—	37	157	35	16	5	22.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.57	4.62	+0.1
2035	33	MLB	NYY	36	—	36	150	33	16	5	22.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.66	4.72	+0.1
2036	34	MLB	NYY	34	—	34	142	31	15	5	21.9%	10.8%	3.3%	4.76	4.83	+0.0
2037	35	MLB	NYY	32	—	32	134	29	15	5	21.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.87	4.95	0.0
2038	36	MLB	NYY	30	—	30	125	26	14	4	21.1%	11.3%	3.6%	5.00	5.08	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			34	32	141	586	135	80	13	23.1%	13.6%	2.3%	3.50	4.13	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—			48	45	200	829	191	113	18	23.1%	13.6%	2.3%	3.50	4.13	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	22.8%	10.7%	2.8%	—	4.32	23.4%	13.4%	130	-0.13	—	—	—
Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	93
Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	93
Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	92
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	23.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.239	5.62	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.91	3.71	325	91
Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	91
Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP	23	SU	4.31	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.11	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.20	4.01	142	90
Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	24	SU	4.06	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.30	4.01	283	90
Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	24	SU	3.48	23.4%	11.9%	1.6%	.316	4.40	23.0%	9.5%	109	+0.92	3.48	142	89
Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	25	SU	3.49	22.4%	10.2%	1.8%	.330	4.95	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.49	140	89
Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	89
Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.53	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.08	3.01	214	89
Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	21.4%	12.4%	2.4%	.296	5.37	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.16	3.60	146	89
Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.51	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.09	3.51	103	88
Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	23.1%	10.7%	3.8%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.98	3.54	156	88
Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	23.9%	14.0%	2.8%	.301	4.39	26.1%	10.7%	96	-0.02	3.95	143	88
Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.09	4.10	112	88
Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.28	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.56	3.72	105	87
Sam Carlson R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	24	SU	3.59	23.5%	11.5%	1.9%	.302	3.45	22.4%	10.4%	108	-0.14	3.20	313	87
Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.50	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.14	2.78	181	87
Cre Finfrock R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	23	SU	4.69	23.0%	11.7%	3.7%	.278	6.32	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.63	4.27	103	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.6M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.7M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.1M
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$2M