Cade Smith

P Somerset Patriots

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	21	19	94	3.65	2.79	30.6%	11.1%	—	K 23.2% · BB 13.3% · FIP 3.86
2025	23	MIX3 levels	11	11	40	2.50	3.00	26.1%	11.2%	—	K 20.3% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.21
2026	24	AANYY	25	24	125	5.27	4.81	21.7%	10.0%	—	K 17.6% · BB 11.0% · FIP 5.65
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	1	1	3	5.43	5.43	18.6%	11.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBNYY	8	8	50	5.26	5.23	19.7%	11.5%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBNYY	11	11	64	5.19	5.20	19.9%	11.2%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 2.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsCarlos Pimentel (age 25) · Nic Swanson (age 25) · Chandler Champlain (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%18.6%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%6.7%

Proj IP145

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	94	386	118	43	6	90%	4.5	23.2%	13.3%	9.9%	1.9%	3.65	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	94	386	118	43	6	90%	4.5	23.2%	13.3%	9.9%	1.9%	3.65	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	94	386	118	43	6	90%	4.5	30.6%	11.1%	19.4%	1.6%	3.65	2.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	40	161	42	18	2	100%	3.6	20.3%	13.8%	6.4%	1.9%	2.50	4.21	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	40	161	42	18	2	100%	3.6	20.3%	13.8%	6.4%	1.9%	2.50	4.21	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	11	40	161	42	18	2	100%	3.6	26.1%	11.2%	14.9%	1.2%	2.50	3.00	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	25	24	125	549	119	55	22	96%	5.0	17.6%	11.0%	6.5%	4.8%	5.27	5.65	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	25	24	125	549	119	55	22	96%	5.0	17.6%	11.0%	6.5%	4.8%	5.27	5.65	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	25	24	125	549	119	55	22	96%	5.0	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	4.0%	5.27	4.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	1	1	3	13	2	2	0	100%	3.0	18.6%	11.9%	6.7%	3.7%	5.43	5.43	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	115	484	96	55	17	100%	6.0	19.7%	11.5%	8.3%	3.6%	5.26	5.23	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	102	429	85	48	15	100%	6.0	19.9%	11.2%	8.7%	3.6%	5.19	5.20	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	94	396	79	44	15	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.2%	8.7%	3.7%	5.20	5.23	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	86	365	72	41	14	100%	6.2	19.7%	11.3%	8.3%	3.8%	5.28	5.34	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	78	331	64	39	13	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.7%	7.7%	4.0%	5.42	5.52	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	50	211	42	24	8	100%	6.2	19.7%	11.5%	8.3%	3.6%	5.26	5.23	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	64	270	54	30	10	100%	5.8	19.9%	11.2%	8.7%	3.6%	5.19	5.20	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	71	300	60	34	11	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.2%	8.7%	3.7%	5.20	5.23	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	71	300	59	34	11	100%	5.9	19.7%	11.3%	8.3%	3.8%	5.28	5.34	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	67	283	55	33	11	100%	6.1	19.4%	11.7%	7.7%	4.0%	5.42	5.52	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	54	323	1365	269	155	51	100%	6.0	19.7%	11.4%	8.3%	3.7%	5.27	4.93	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	96	32	100%	6.0	19.7%	11.4%	8.3%	3.7%	5.27	4.93	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		57	54	258	1096	219	134	37	95%	4.5	19.9%	12.2%	7.7%	3.4%	4.26	4.81	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	850	169	104	28	95%	4.5	19.9%	12.2%	7.7%	3.4%	4.26	4.81	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 125 IPFIP 4.74 → 5.65 (+0.91)K% 21.7% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.68%	—	×0.810	17.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.02%	—	×1.100	11.02%
HR / BF /BF	4.01%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.81%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.74 → 5.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 33 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.21 (+0.98)K% 26.3% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.770	20.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.03%	—	×1.150	13.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.50%	÷0.969	×1.250	1.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 86 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.86 (+1.20)K% 31.4% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.36%	—	×0.740	23.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.30%	—	×1.180	13.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷0.979	×1.300	1.88%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 8 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.12 (+0.96)K% 21.9% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.770	16.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.150	10.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.032	×1.250	3.78%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	5.22	19.8%	8.5%	310	-0.21	—	—	—
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	86
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	83
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	82
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	82
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	82
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	14.9%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.43	16.0%	8.7%	271	-0.34	4.07	567	82
Shao-Ching Chiang R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	575	82
Dom Hamel R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	25	SP	5.31	18.3%	11.9%	4.1%	.330	4.96	17.9%	8.8%	180	-0.35	3.61	547	82
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	81
Brady Feigl R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	25	SP	5.26	19.4%	9.6%	4.7%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	257	81
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	81
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	81
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	80
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	80
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	80
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	80
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	79
David Hess R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	17.5%	8.5%	3.6%	.267	5.99	20.8%	13.3%	187	+1.30	3.97	751	79
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	79
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	103	19.5%	11.5%	1.43	5.30
Jim Britton ('67-'71, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	18.4%*	11.7%*	1.42*	5.10*
Jack Kucek ('74-'80, -2 WAR*)	1.0	51	20.4%*	11.8%*	1.44*	5.37*
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Matt Kinney ('05)	1.9	97	16.8%	9.9%	1.39	5.29
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41