Cade Smith — OGILVIE

Cade Smith P Somerset Patriots

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION125 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%22.3%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4555

CTRL—50

CMD4045

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$0.9M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	94	386	118	43	6	90%	4.5	23.2%	13.3%	9.9%	1.9%	3.65	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	94	386	118	43	6	90%	4.5	23.2%	13.3%	9.9%	1.9%	3.65	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	94	386	118	43	6	90%	4.5	30.6%	11.1%	19.4%	1.6%	3.65	2.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	40	161	42	18	2	100%	3.6	20.3%	13.8%	6.4%	1.9%	2.50	4.21	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	40	161	42	18	2	100%	3.6	20.3%	13.8%	6.4%	1.9%	2.50	4.21	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	11	40	161	42	18	2	100%	3.6	26.1%	11.2%	14.9%	1.2%	2.50	3.00	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	25	24	125	549	119	55	22	96%	5.0	17.6%	11.0%	6.5%	4.8%	5.27	5.65	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	25	24	125	549	119	55	22	96%	5.0	17.6%	11.0%	6.5%	4.8%	5.27	5.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	NYY	25	24	125	549	119	55	22	96%	5.0	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	4.0%	5.27	4.74	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYY	1	1	5	22	5	3	1	100%	5.2	22.3%	13.6%	8.7%	2.8%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	130	571	124	58	23	—	—	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	4.0%	5.25	5.62	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	124	522	118	64	15	100%	5.9	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	2.8%	4.72	4.66	+0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	124	522	119	62	15	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	2.8%	4.64	4.60	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	122	514	117	60	15	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.7%	11.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.62	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	118	498	113	59	15	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.8%	10.9%	3.0%	4.67	4.70	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	113	476	106	57	15	100%	5.9	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.1%	4.77	4.83	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	106	447	98	55	15	100%	5.9	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	3.3%	4.91	5.01	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	54	228	52	28	7	100%	6.0	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.82	4.76	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	83	350	80	41	11	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	3.0%	4.74	4.70	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	94	397	90	46	12	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.74	4.73	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	99	418	94	49	13	100%	6.2	22.6%	11.8%	10.9%	3.2%	4.78	4.81	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	99	418	93	50	14	100%	6.2	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.3%	4.89	4.95	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	95	401	88	49	14	100%	5.9	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	3.6%	5.03	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	88	525	2216	499	265	71	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.9%	10.6%	3.2%	4.84	4.48	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	190	101	27	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.9%	10.6%	3.2%	4.84	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		57	54	258	1096	219	134	37	95%	4.5	19.9%	12.2%	7.7%	3.4%	4.26	4.81	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	850	169	104	28	95%	4.5	19.9%	12.2%	7.7%	3.4%	4.26	4.81	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	22.3%	13.6%	2.8%	—	4.63	22.7%	10.8%	369	-0.23	—	—	—
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	87
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	83
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.37	18.7%	5.7%	59	+0.72	4.65	194	81
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	81
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	80
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	80
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	80
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.81	22.5%	9.1%	231	-0.01	3.75	326	80
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	80
Zach Messinger R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.96	17.9%	8.2%	286	-1.30	3.70	466	80
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.55	24.9%	17.3%	216	-0.12	2.28	474	79
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	79
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	79
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	79
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	78
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	78
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	78
Noah Davis R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP	3.76	19.4%	11.8%	1.5%	.264	4.96	18.5%	8.1%	312	+1.20	3.76	594	78
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	109	22.5%	12.1%	1.15	4.73
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77