Blade Tidwell

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 244 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAASPIL-6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	26	22	122	4.86	4.60	22.6%	12.0%	—	K 19.0% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.87
2025	24	MIX2 levels	25	19	112	4.34	3.56	25.0%	9.5%	2.5	K 21.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.89
2026	25	MIX2 levels	33	24	129	4.41	4.09	22.5%	10.1%	2.0	K 20.5% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	5	5	32	4.58	4.68	21.1%	9.1%	0.3
2028PROJ87% MLB	27	MLBSF	11	11	66	4.48	4.53	21.1%	9.0%	0.6
2029PROJ90% MLB	28	MLBSF	11	11	68	4.53	4.58	21.1%	9.1%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.714First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$1M2032Ext$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo58

xwOBA vs45

K%32

Form4.26 ERA (proj 4.58) · K 18.5% (proj 21.1%) · BB 9.9% (proj 9.1%) ▼ last 60d · 19 IP through Oct 27

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24) · Nick Payero (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.58

FIP4.68

K%21.1%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p3219.6%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.714 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	9	41	11	7	0	100%	1.9	26.8%	17.1%	9.8%	0.0%	1.93	3.00	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	9	41	11	7	0	100%	1.9	26.8%	17.1%	9.8%	0.0%	1.93	2.99	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	116	487	153	63	14	100%	4.6	24.5%	14.7%	9.8%	3.5%	3.57	4.84	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	116	487	153	63	14	100%	4.6	31.4%	12.9%	18.5%	2.9%	3.57	3.66	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	122	535	121	64	18	85%	4.7	19.0%	11.2%	7.9%	3.6%	4.86	4.87	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	122	535	121	64	18	85%	4.7	19.0%	11.2%	7.9%	3.6%	4.86	4.87	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	122	535	121	64	18	85%	4.7	22.6%	12.0%	10.7%	3.4%	4.86	4.60	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	112	484	121	46	12	76%	4.5	21.8%	8.8%	13.0%	2.8%	4.34	3.89	+2.0
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	112	484	121	46	12	76%	4.5	21.8%	8.8%	13.0%	2.8%	4.34	3.89	+2.0
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	112	484	121	46	12	76%	4.5	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	2.5%	4.34	3.56	+2.5
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	129	552	124	56	16	73%	3.9	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.41	4.31	+1.6
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	129	552	124	56	16	73%	3.9	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.41	4.31	+1.6
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	24	129	552	124	56	16	73%	3.9	22.5%	10.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.41	4.09	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	11	72	313	56	31	12	52%	3.4	17.9%	9.9%	8.0%	3.8%	5.40	5.01	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	5	5	32	135	28	12	4	100%	6.4	21.1%	9.1%	11.9%	3.3%	4.58	4.68	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	76	321	68	29	11	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.3%	4.62	4.67	+0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	75	317	67	29	11	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.4%	4.67	4.72	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	66	280	58	26	10	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.3%	11.3%	3.5%	4.78	4.86	+0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	54	230	46	22	9	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	3.7%	4.94	5.05	+0.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	42	176	34	17	7	100%	5.9	19.1%	9.9%	9.3%	4.0%	5.15	5.28	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	66	279	59	25	9	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.1%	4.48	4.53	+0.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	68	287	61	26	9	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.2%	4.53	4.58	+0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	61	258	53	24	8	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.3%	11.3%	3.3%	4.63	4.71	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	51	215	43	20	7	100%	6.4	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	3.4%	4.79	4.90	+0.2
2032	31	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	39	165	32	16	6	100%	6.5	19.1%	9.9%	9.3%	3.7%	4.99	5.12	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	58	356	1512	302	143	51	85%	5.2	20.0%	9.4%	10.5%	3.4%	4.80	4.47	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	33	200	850	170	80	29	85%	5.2	20.0%	9.4%	10.5%	3.4%	4.80	4.47	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		114	95	488	2099	451	233	67	83%	4.3	21.5%	11.1%	10.4%	3.2%	4.26	4.45	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	39	200	860	185	96	28	83%	4.3	21.5%	11.1%	10.4%	3.2%	4.26	4.45	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 72 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.10 (+0.29)K% 24.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.61%	—	×0.860	21.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.04%	—	×0.900	9.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.78%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 97 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.39 (+0.40)K% 27.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.34%	—	×0.860	23.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.87%	—	×0.900	7.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷0.938	×1.100	2.31%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 85 IPFIP 5.56 → 5.71 (+0.15)K% 19.8% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.85%	—	×0.860	17.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.66%	—	×0.900	12.29%
HR / BF /BF	4.38%	÷1.059	×1.100	4.55%

Result: FIP 5.56 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 37 IPFIP 1.89 → 2.63 (+0.74)K% 29.9% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.93%	—	×0.810	24.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.48%	—	×1.100	8.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷0.834	×1.200	0.98%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 67).

Result: FIP 1.89 → 2.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 82 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.46 (+1.14)K% 33.0% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.04%	—	×0.770	25.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.57%	—	×1.150	15.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.36%	÷1.054	×1.250	2.80%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 34 IPFIP 4.44 → 5.69 (+1.25)K% 27.7% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.70%	—	×0.810	22.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.49%	—	×1.100	12.64%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷0.925	×1.200	5.26%

Result: FIP 4.44 → 5.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 8 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.00 (+0.90)K% 24.3% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.740	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.22%	—	×1.180	19.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.949	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blade Tidwell (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.75	20.9%	11.8%	217	+0.07	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	78
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	78
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	77
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	77
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	76
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	76
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	75
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	75
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	75
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	809	75
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	74
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	74
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	74
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	74
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	74
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	74
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	61	20.1%	9.4%	1.38	4.87
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*