Blade Tidwell — OGILVIE

Blade Tidwell P Sacramento River Cats

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 244 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.19

FIP4.36

K%20.2%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5550

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p2822.2%

p3019.3%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

FB+2.0 (50%)

CH (4%)

SL (42%)

SI (17%)

CU (4%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	9	41	11	7	0	100%	1.9	26.8%	17.1%	9.8%	0.0%	1.93	3.00	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	9	41	11	7	0	100%	1.9	26.8%	17.1%	9.8%	0.0%	1.93	2.99	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	116	487	153	63	14	100%	4.6	24.5%	14.7%	9.8%	3.5%	3.57	4.84	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	116	487	153	63	14	100%	4.6	24.5%	14.7%	9.8%	3.5%	3.57	4.84	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	116	487	153	63	14	100%	4.6	31.4%	12.9%	18.5%	2.9%	3.57	3.66	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	122	535	121	64	18	85%	4.7	18.6%	11.2%	7.4%	3.6%	4.86	4.90	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	122	535	121	64	18	85%	4.7	18.6%	11.2%	7.4%	3.6%	4.86	4.90	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	122	535	121	64	18	85%	4.7	22.6%	12.0%	10.7%	3.4%	4.86	4.60	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	112	484	121	46	12	76%	4.5	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	2.8%	4.34	3.95	+1.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	112	484	121	46	12	76%	4.5	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	2.8%	4.34	3.95	+1.3
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	112	484	121	46	12	76%	4.5	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	2.5%	4.34	3.56	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	9	62	275	48	30	10	47%	3.2	17.5%	10.9%	6.5%	3.6%	5.84	5.11	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	31	22	119	514	116	55	14	71%	3.8	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	3.0%	4.55	4.31	+0.8
YTD	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	31	22	119	514	116	55	14	71%	3.8	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	3.0%	4.55	4.31	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	SF	16	15	72	317	78	35	8	94%	4.5	24.6%	11.0%	13.6%	2.5%	4.38	3.81	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	SF	15	7	47	197	38	20	6	47%	3.1	19.3%	10.2%	9.1%	3.0%	4.82	4.43	+0.1
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	SF	15	7	47	197	38	20	6	47%	3.1	19.3%	10.2%	9.1%	3.0%	4.82	4.43	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SF	2	2	12	51	10	5	2	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.19	4.36	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	SF	2	2	12	51	10	5	2	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.19	4.36	+0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	131	565	126	60	16	—	—	22.4%	10.6%	11.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.32	+0.9
FULL	25	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	59	248	126	60	16	—	—	51.0%	24.2%	26.8%	6.3%	10.06	5.32	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	149	630	129	60	20	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	3.1%	4.61	4.67	+0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	151	638	132	61	20	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.63	4.67	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	151	638	131	61	21	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.2%	4.69	4.74	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	144	609	122	59	21	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.7%	10.3%	3.4%	4.80	4.88	+0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	23	23	136	573	111	57	21	100%	5.9	19.3%	10.0%	9.3%	3.6%	4.97	5.09	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	142	600	123	57	19	100%	5.9	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	3.1%	4.61	4.67	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	144	608	125	58	19	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.63	4.67	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	144	608	125	58	20	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.2%	4.69	4.74	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	23	23	137	578	116	56	20	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.7%	10.3%	3.4%	4.80	4.88	+0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	22	22	129	545	105	55	20	100%	5.9	19.3%	10.0%	9.3%	3.6%	4.97	5.09	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		137	127	768	3259	652	319	108	93%	5.6	20.0%	9.8%	10.2%	3.3%	4.81	4.47	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	848	170	83	28	93%	5.6	20.0%	9.8%	10.2%	3.3%	4.81	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		112	93	478	2061	435	232	65	83%	4.3	21.1%	11.3%	9.8%	3.2%	4.29	4.48	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	39	200	862	182	97	27	83%	4.3	21.1%	11.3%	9.8%	3.2%	4.29	4.48	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blade Tidwell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.3%	9.6%	3.2%	—	4.69	20.6%	11.0%	452	-0.02	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	77
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	77
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	77
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	77
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	76
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	75
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	75
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	75
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	74
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	74
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	74
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	74
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	74
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	73
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	73
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	73
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	73
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	73
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	72
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	146	20.2%	9.7%	1.26	4.70
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36