Blade Tidwell
P
San Francisco Giants
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 244 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.0 · 2028
ERA6.46
FIP4.76
xFIP3.77
SIERA3.22
K%21.4%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%10.6%
IP116
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2028
K†5050
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p1019.7%
K%
p1012.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.361
FB+2.0 (49%)
CH (3%)
SL (47%)
SI (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 5 | 5 | 9 | 41 | 11 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 25 | 25 | 116 | 487 | 153 | 63 | 14 | 24.5% | 14.7% | 3.5% | 3.57 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 26 | 22 | 122 | 535 | 121 | 64 | 18 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 5.05 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 25 | 19 | 112 | 484 | 121 | 46 | 12 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 3.95 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 6 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 35 | 18 | 5 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 6.46 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 49 | 200 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 5.55 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 122 | 517 | 113 | 52 | 16 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 5.32 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 126 | 530 | 117 | 53 | 17 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.61 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 116 | 52 | 17 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.62 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 123 | 519 | 111 | 51 | 17 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.69 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 105 | 50 | 17 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 99 | 49 | 16 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 92 | 48 | 16 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.00 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 85 | 46 | 16 | 19.0% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 5.13 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 77 | 45 | 15 | 18.3% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 5.18 | 5.27 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 94 | 398 | 70 | 43 | 15 | 17.6% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 5.32 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 63 | 41 | 14 | 16.8% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 5.48 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 72 | 369 | 1581 | 351 | 196 | 51 | 22.2% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.56 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 39 | 200 | 856 | 190 | 106 | 28 | 22.2% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.56 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blade Tidwell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.62 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 374 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 84 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 83 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 83 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 82 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 82 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 82 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 81 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 81 |
| Joe Harvey R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .183 | 3.92 | 25.0% | 12.7% | 107 | +0.10 | 2.56 | 197 | 81 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 81 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.17 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 58 | +0.16 | 4.01 | 142 | 81 |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.09 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 78 | -0.78 | 2.67 | 102 | 80 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.4% | .450 | 4.64 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.12 | 4.02 | 187 | 80 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 80 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 80 |
| Michael King R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .316 | 2.74 | 28.3% | 20.8% | 219 | -1.38 | 1.98 | 862 | 80 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.78 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.40 | 3.84 | 299 | 80 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.16 | 3.16 | 153 | 80 |
| Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.37 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .370 | 3.72 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.65 | 3.22 | 145 | 80 |
| Will Vest R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .282 | 3.66 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | -0.05 | 2.53 | 421 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $3M | +1.0 | $8M | +$5M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $6M | +1.0 | $9M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $7M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $14M | $26M | +$12M | ||