Kade Morris

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	27	24	136	4.50	3.75	20.4%	7.6%	—	K 16.1% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.72
2025	23	MIX2 levels	28	28	150	4.38	3.74	19.9%	7.5%	—	K 16.7% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.89
2026	24	MIX2 levels	24	20	114	5.12	4.81	16.1%	8.2%	0.8	K 14.2% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.98
2027PROJ	25	MLBOAK	20	20	115	4.65	4.90	15.2%	7.0%	0.7
2028PROJ81% MLB	26	MLBOAK	22	22	134	4.68	4.73	17.0%	7.0%	1.0
2029PROJ86% MLB	27	MLBOAK	18	18	105	4.70	4.74	17.4%	7.2%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo50

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 5.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsHiram Burgos (age 25) · Cha Seung Baek (age 24) · Mike MacDougal (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.65

FIP4.90

K%15.2%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p1018.2%

p1011.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.359

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	3	16	3	2	0	100%	1.7	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	0.0%	2.70	3.10	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	3	16	3	2	0	100%	1.7	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	0.0%	2.70	3.10	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	136	592	121	45	15	89%	5.0	16.1%	8.4%	7.6%	3.5%	4.50	4.72	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	136	592	121	45	15	89%	5.0	16.1%	8.4%	7.6%	3.5%	4.50	4.72	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	24	136	592	121	45	15	89%	5.0	20.4%	7.6%	12.8%	2.5%	4.50	3.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	150	643	128	48	16	100%	5.4	16.7%	7.1%	9.7%	2.4%	4.38	3.89	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	150	643	128	48	16	100%	5.4	16.7%	7.1%	9.7%	2.4%	4.38	3.89	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	150	643	128	48	16	100%	5.4	19.9%	7.5%	12.4%	2.5%	4.38	3.74	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	114	502	81	41	18	83%	4.8	14.2%	7.5%	6.7%	3.9%	5.12	4.98	+0.6
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	114	502	81	41	18	83%	4.8	14.2%	7.5%	6.7%	3.9%	5.12	4.98	+0.6
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	114	502	81	41	18	83%	4.8	16.1%	8.2%	8.0%	3.6%	5.12	4.81	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	2	17	89	10	7	5	33%	2.9	11.2%	7.9%	3.4%	5.6%	10.90	6.91	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	OAK	20	20	115	486	74	34	16	100%	5.8	15.2%	7.0%	8.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.90	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	28	28	165	697	119	49	23	100%	5.9	17.0%	7.0%	10.0%	3.3%	4.68	4.73	+1.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	122	513	89	37	17	100%	6.1	17.4%	7.2%	10.2%	3.3%	4.70	4.74	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	115	487	85	36	17	100%	6.1	17.5%	7.3%	10.1%	3.4%	4.75	4.80	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	105	445	76	34	16	100%	5.9	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	3.5%	4.86	4.94	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	95	399	65	31	15	100%	5.9	16.3%	7.9%	8.5%	3.7%	5.03	5.15	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	22	22	134	566	96	40	19	100%	6.1	17.0%	7.0%	10.0%	3.3%	4.68	4.73	+1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	105	443	77	32	15	100%	5.8	17.4%	7.2%	10.2%	3.3%	4.70	4.74	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	104	439	77	32	15	100%	6.1	17.5%	7.3%	10.1%	3.4%	4.75	4.80	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	96	405	69	31	14	100%	6.0	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	3.5%	4.86	4.94	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	88	372	61	29	14	100%	5.9	16.3%	7.9%	8.5%	3.7%	5.03	5.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	90	544	2312	390	171	81	96%	5.8	16.9%	7.4%	9.5%	3.5%	4.98	4.54	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	850	143	63	30	96%	5.8	16.9%	7.4%	9.5%	3.5%	4.98	4.54	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		81	74	404	1753	277	135	55	91%	5.0	15.8%	7.7%	8.1%	3.2%	4.62	4.47	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	37	200	869	137	67	27	91%	5.0	15.8%	7.7%	8.1%	3.2%	4.62	4.47	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 97 IPFIP 4.42 → 4.69 (+0.27)K% 17.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.19%	—	×0.860	14.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.23%	—	×0.900	7.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.15%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.46%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.42 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 98 IPFIP 4.39 → 4.38 (−0.01)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.39%	—	×0.860	15.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.51%	—	×0.900	7.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.22%	÷1.183	×1.100	2.99%

Result: FIP 4.39 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 52 IPFIP 2.35 → 2.87 (+0.52)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.810	18.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.29%	—	×1.100	5.82%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷1.043	×1.200	1.11%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 96 IPFIP 3.29 → 4.22 (+0.93)K% 19.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.57%	—	×0.770	15.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.150	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.867	×1.250	2.44%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 35 IPFIP 4.09 → 6.09 (+2.00)K% 25.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.50%	—	×0.740	18.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.38%	—	×1.180	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	4.03%	÷0.826	×1.300	6.34%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 4.09 → 6.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 6 IPFIP 8.05 → 8.33 (+0.28)K% 6.9% → 5.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	6.90%	—	×0.860	5.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×0.900	12.41%
HR / BF /BF	6.90%	÷1.001	×1.100	7.58%

Result: FIP 8.05 → 8.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kade Morris (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.75	17.3%	10.1%	402	-0.15	—	—	—
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	87
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	84
Mike MacDougal R 2001 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	10.4%	6.0%	3.0%	.296	3.79	20.5%	8.7%	75	-0.82	2.68	379	83
Brian Stokes R 2006 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP-	3.98	13.6%	8.2%	1.8%	.345	4.51	14.3%	6.3%	166	+0.53	3.96	207	82
Brad Lincoln R 2010 · 5.24 FIP	25	SP-	5.24	10.4%	6.2%	4.0%	.298	4.10	19.9%	12.2%	167	-1.14	3.78	280	80
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	80
Stephen Fife R 2012 · 3.87 FIP	25	SP	3.87	17.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.284	3.94	17.4%	10.4%	58	+0.07	3.11	264	80
Alfredo Aceves R 2008 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP-	4.86	13.3%	8.3%	3.3%	.233	3.69	17.6%	10.9%	210	-1.17	3.53	541	79
Jason Grilli R 2001 · 5.93 FIP	24	SP	5.93	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	.296	6.24	12.8%	2.9%	45	+0.31	2.00	678	79
Daniel McCutchen R 2009 · 4.93 FIP	26	SP	4.93	12.3%	5.8%	3.9%	.264	4.81	12.5%	4.3%	152	-0.12	4.13	476	79
Eddie Bonine R 2008 · 4.40 FIP	27	SP	4.40	7.7%	4.3%	2.6%	.330	4.90	10.1%	3.2%	102	+0.50	4.40	129	77
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	77
Clayton Mortensen R 2009 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.7%	8.7%	4.0%	.308	4.84	17.1%	7.7%	100	-0.84	4.31	383	77
Wes Obermueller R 2003 · 4.93 FIP	26	SP	4.93	11.2%	7.6%	3.3%	.301	4.77	11.1%	2.0%	183	-0.16	4.72	308	77
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	77
Kyle Gibson R 2013 · 4.74 FIP	25	SP	4.74	12.2%	8.4%	2.9%	.341	3.93	16.0%	8.4%	521	-0.81	3.56	1,920	76
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	75
Nick Belzer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	12.8%	8.6%	2.6%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	112	75
Max Duval R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	15.0%	5.9%	3.6%	.317	5.41	16.1%	9.5%	127	+0.88	3.24	189	75
Max Beatty R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP	4.31	11.8%	3.7%	3.2%	.264	3.88	13.2%	6.8%	46	-0.43	3.88	117	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	131	16.5%	7.3%	1.34	4.89
Rodrigo Lopez ('12)	6.8	135	14.7%	7.1%	1.35	4.82
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70
Dave Bush ('13)	5.7	143	15.7%	6.0%	1.34	4.73
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Al Nipper ('83-'90, 4 WAR*)	4.0	133	14.8%*	8.5%*	1.23*	4.56*
Ken Schrom ('80-'87, 3 WAR*)	4.5	150	13.4%*	8.1%*	1.41*	4.77*