Kade Morris
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2028
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 74 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
K%16.6%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%8.6%
ROS IP74
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 166 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p1016.5%
K%
p1011.3%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 12.5% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 12.5% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 24 | 136 | 592 | 121 | 45 | 15 | 89% | 5.0 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 4.50 | 5.14 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 24 | 136 | 592 | 121 | 45 | 15 | 89% | 5.0 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 2.5% | 4.50 | 3.75 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 150 | 643 | 128 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 2.1% | 4.38 | 3.82 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 150 | 643 | 128 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.38 | 3.74 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Athletics | 18 | 16 | 92 | 406 | 67 | 36 | 17 | 89% | 5.1 | 14.7% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.30 | 5.50 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 74 | 314 | 52 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 52 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 166 | 720 | 119 | 61 | 26 | — | — | 16.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.95 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 84 | 356 | 119 | 61 | 26 | — | — | 33.4% | 17.1% | 16.3% | 7.2% | 9.50 | 6.41 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 30 | 30 | 175 | 739 | 132 | 58 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.69 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 140 | 58 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.59 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 139 | 58 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.61 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 139 | 59 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 165 | 695 | 131 | 57 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.82 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 155 | 653 | 120 | 56 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 5.00 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 144 | 609 | 110 | 54 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 5.08 | 5.20 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 134 | 564 | 99 | 53 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 5.29 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 166 | 701 | 125 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.65 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 166 | 701 | 133 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.55 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 164 | 692 | 132 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.57 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 164 | 692 | 132 | 56 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 124 | 54 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 114 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.96 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 104 | 52 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 5.03 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 94 | 50 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 5.24 | 5.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 221 | 219 | 1312 | 5548 | 1017 | 461 | 187 | 99% | 5.9 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.45 | +14.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 33 | 200 | 846 | 155 | 70 | 29 | 99% | 5.9 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 75 | 70 | 381 | 1657 | 267 | 140 | 57 | 93% | 5.1 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 37 | 200 | 870 | 140 | 74 | 30 | 93% | 5.1 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kade Morris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.63 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 522 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Hawks R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.72 | 13.9% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 5.48 | 14.6% | 3.7% | 67 | +0.76 | 4.72 | 304 | 91 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.32 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.09 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.23 | 3.09 | 129 | 90 |
| Jose Reyes R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .289 | 5.03 | 11.0% | 2.8% | 100 | +0.81 | 4.22 | 225 | 90 |
| James Needy R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.93 | 14.2% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .326 | 2.82 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 36 | -2.11 | 2.82 | 167 | 88 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 88 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.66 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .298 | 5.01 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.20 | 416 | 87 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 87 |
| Rainy Lara R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 13.9% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .305 | 4.82 | 11.4% | 2.4% | 108 | +0.60 | 4.22 | 242 | 87 |
| Justin Vernia R 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.07 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.46 | 14.7% | 10.2% | 79 | -0.61 | 4.42 | 193 | 87 |
| Kendall Graveman R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.42 | 14.8% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .288 | 4.45 | 14.5% | 8.0% | 360 | +0.03 | 2.56 | 723 | 86 |
| Jordan Pries R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.15 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .307 | 4.55 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.40 | 4.15 | 219 | 86 |
| Blaine Knight R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .263 | 4.58 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.12 | 4.16 | 269 | 86 |
| Justin Hancock R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 14.2% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .316 | 3.55 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 73 | -0.90 | 3.49 | 193 | 86 |
| Tim Atherton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 86 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.77 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .279 | 4.10 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 216 | +0.33 | 3.74 | 459 | 86 |
| Brady Feigl R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.81 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .333 | 5.77 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 122 | +1.96 | 3.81 | 257 | 85 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.67 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.85 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.18 | 3.67 | 523 | 85 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 85 |
| Tyler Herb R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.32 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.89 | 15.7% | 7.0% | 378 | +0.57 | 3.87 | 867 | 85 |
| Wily Peralta R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.64 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .314 | 4.52 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.12 | 4.02 | 748 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 156 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 1.31 | 4.79 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |