Kade Morris
P
Las Vegas Aviators
+1.1
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.5 · 2028
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.2%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%9.8%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 27 | 24 | 136 | 592 | 121 | 45 | 15 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.50 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 28 | 28 | 150 | 643 | 128 | 48 | 16 | 17.0% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 4.38 | 4.00 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 3 | 3 | 16 | 70 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 17.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 3.94 | 7.07 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 92 | 43 | 14 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 136 | 577 | 106 | 49 | 19 | 18.5% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 109 | 47 | 16 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 119 | 48 | 17 | 20.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 122 | 49 | 17 | 20.2% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 122 | 50 | 18 | 20.2% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 119 | 49 | 17 | 20.1% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 114 | 48 | 17 | 19.9% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 109 | 47 | 17 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 103 | 46 | 17 | 19.4% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 97 | 45 | 16 | 19.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 90 | 44 | 16 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 83 | 42 | 16 | 18.3% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 5.00 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 76 | 40 | 15 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 5.05 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 69 | 39 | 15 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 5.28 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 57 | 305 | 1321 | 220 | 109 | 41 | 16.6% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.46 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 37 | 200 | 865 | 144 | 71 | 27 | 16.6% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.46 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kade Morris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.40 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 417 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .307 | 3.96 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.48 | 3.22 | 907 | 93 |
| Chris Devenski R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .298 | 2.89 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 236 | -1.19 | 2.10 | 608 | 93 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 92 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.68 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.69 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.01 | 3.68 | 523 | 92 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 91 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 91 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 90 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.86 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .279 | 4.13 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 177 | +0.27 | 3.77 | 420 | 90 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 90 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.17 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.93 | 354 | 89 |
| Jose Reyes R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.24 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .289 | 5.11 | 11.0% | 2.8% | 100 | +0.87 | 4.24 | 225 | 89 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 89 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.64 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 5.79 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.15 | 3.18 | 237 | 89 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 89 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 89 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.58 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.81 | 3.35 | 541 | 89 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 89 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 88 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 88 |
| Connor Noland R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.01 | 14.8% | 5.7% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.17 | 17.1% | 8.7% | 280 | +0.16 | 4.01 | 388 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +1.3 | $12M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.2 | $11M | +$7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.1 | $11M | +$5M |
| Totals | $16M | $74M | +$58M | ||