Chase Solesky
P
Durham Bulls
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 201 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.89
FIP4.89
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.0%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%8.9%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 18 | 18 | 68 | 308 | 88 | 24 | 11 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 5.14 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 26 | 24 | 116 | 490 | 88 | 34 | 15 | 13.3% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 4.10 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 26 | 25 | 117 | 520 | 92 | 55 | 16 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 5.31 | 4.96 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 17 | 15 | 83 | 339 | 51 | 20 | 6 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 3.02 | 4.07 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 25 | 24 | 113 | 497 | 97 | 43 | 16 | 17.3% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 4.85 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 3 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 25.9% | 12.4% | 6.5% | 4.50 | 6.03 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TB | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 5.05 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | TB | — | — | 53 | 222 | 44 | 22 | 9 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 4.92 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 72 | 39 | 14 | 17.2% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 70 | 38 | 13 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 68 | 37 | 13 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.05 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 89 | 376 | 65 | 36 | 13 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 5.07 | 5.12 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 61 | 35 | 13 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 56 | 34 | 12 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 5.26 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 58 | 30 | 12 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 5.21 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 53 | 29 | 12 | 17.7% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 5.27 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 115 | 109 | 510 | 2205 | 350 | 199 | 81 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.56 | 4.92 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 43 | 200 | 865 | 137 | 78 | 32 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.56 | 4.92 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Solesky (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.05 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 3.2% | — | 5.02 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 288 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 88 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 86 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.38 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 101 | 84 |
| Jose Casilla R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.65 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 104 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 84 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 84 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 3.68 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.38 | 3.02 | 258 | 83 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 83 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.01 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.10 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.09 | 3.18 | 253 | 82 |
| Guido Knudson R 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 106 | 81 |
| Eder Llamas R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.85 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.65 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.20 | 3.23 | 171 | 81 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 81 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 81 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.10 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 4.07 | 14.1% | 5.5% | 68 | -1.03 | 4.06 | 256 | 81 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 81 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .276 | 4.87 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 22 | +0.86 | 2.78 | 312 | 80 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 80 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 80 |
| Esteban Haro R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.03 | 11.6% | 8.4% | 1.5% | .302 | 4.25 | 15.6% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.22 | 3.73 | 164 | 80 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.