Chase Solesky — OGILVIE

Chase Solesky P Louisville Bats

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 201 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%14.4%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	68	308	88	24	11	100%	3.8	21.3%	9.2%	12.2%	4.9%	5.14	5.15	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	68	308	88	24	11	100%	3.8	28.6%	7.8%	20.8%	3.6%	5.14	3.67	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	116	490	88	34	15	92%	4.5	13.3%	7.7%	5.6%	4.2%	4.10	5.28	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	116	490	88	34	15	92%	4.5	18.0%	6.9%	11.0%	3.1%	4.10	4.14	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	117	520	92	55	16	96%	4.5	14.6%	10.0%	4.6%	3.0%	5.31	4.80	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	117	520	92	55	16	96%	4.5	14.6%	10.0%	4.6%	3.0%	5.31	4.80	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	117	520	92	55	16	96%	4.5	17.7%	10.6%	7.1%	3.1%	5.31	4.72	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	17	15	83	339	51	20	6	88%	4.9	12.2%	6.5%	5.7%	2.1%	3.02	4.07	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	17	15	83	339	51	20	6	88%	4.9	12.2%	6.5%	5.7%	2.1%	3.02	4.07	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	17	15	83	339	51	20	6	88%	4.9	15.0%	5.9%	9.1%	1.8%	3.02	3.53	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	113	497	97	43	16	96%	4.5	16.4%	7.9%	8.4%	3.8%	5.03	4.79	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	113	497	97	43	16	96%	4.5	16.4%	7.9%	8.4%	3.8%	5.03	4.79	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	113	497	97	43	16	96%	4.5	19.5%	8.7%	10.9%	3.2%	5.03	4.37	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	3	17	4	1	1	0%	3.0	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	5.9%	6.00	5.77	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	32	9	78	347	74	27	12	28%	2.4	17.6%	7.1%	10.5%	3.7%	5.68	4.52	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	32	9	78	347	74	27	12	28%	2.4	17.6%	7.1%	10.5%	3.7%	5.68	4.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	TB	31	9	75	330	70	26	11	29%	2.4	21.2%	7.9%	13.3%	3.3%	5.67	4.14	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	TB	1	0	3	17	4	1	1	0%	3.0	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	5.9%	6.00	5.09	—
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	TB	1	0	3	17	4	1	1	0%	3.0	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	5.9%	6.00	5.09	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	TB	6	0	6	27	4	2	1	0%	1.1	14.4%	8.3%	6.1%	3.3%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	TB	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	14.4%	8.3%	6.1%	3.3%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	84	374	78	29	13	—	—	20.8%	7.8%	13.0%	3.4%	5.63	4.57	+0.2
FULL	28	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	9	39	78	29	13	—	—	198.2%	74.4%	123.8%	32.8%	50.87	13.77	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	68	286	43	25	10	100%	6.2	15.1%	8.6%	6.5%	3.4%	5.10	5.15	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	64	269	41	24	10	100%	5.8	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	3.5%	5.18	5.27	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	64	270	41	23	9	100%	5.8	15.1%	8.6%	6.5%	3.4%	5.10	5.15	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	61	258	40	23	9	100%	6.1	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	3.5%	5.18	5.27	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	21	134	571	88	50	20	75%	4.8	15.5%	8.7%	6.7%	3.5%	5.16	4.83	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	31	200	851	131	75	30	75%	4.8	15.5%	8.7%	6.7%	3.5%	5.16	4.83	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		144	115	575	2501	390	204	90	80%	4.0	15.6%	8.2%	7.4%	3.6%	4.71	4.80	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	40	200	869	136	71	31	80%	4.0	15.6%	8.2%	7.4%	3.6%	4.71	4.80	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Solesky (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	14.4%	8.3%	3.3%	—	5.21	15.2%	6.4%	132	+0.11	—	—	—
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	81
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	81
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	81
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	80
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	80
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	79
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	79
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	78
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	78
Ivan Zavala R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	28	SP-	4.51	7.0%	4.7%	2.6%	.312	4.73	12.2%	4.3%	50	+0.22	4.27	209	78
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	78
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	77
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	76
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	76
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	76
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	76
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	74
Mike Augliera R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP-	4.27	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	114	74
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	74
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	15.0%	8.7%	1.31	5.13
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77