Chase Solesky
P
Durham Bulls
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 201 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 118
ERA5.21
FIP5.21
K%15.2%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%5.7%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 68 | 308 | 88 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 3.8 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 5.3% | 5.14 | 5.35 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 68 | 308 | 88 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 3.8 | 28.6% | 7.8% | 20.8% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 3.67 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 116 | 490 | 88 | 34 | 15 | 92% | 4.5 | 13.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.10 | 5.39 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 116 | 490 | 88 | 34 | 15 | 92% | 4.5 | 18.0% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 4.14 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 117 | 520 | 92 | 55 | 16 | 96% | 4.5 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.31 | 4.73 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 117 | 520 | 92 | 55 | 16 | 96% | 4.5 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 5.31 | 4.72 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 17 | 15 | 83 | 339 | 51 | 20 | 6 | 88% | 4.9 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 3.02 | 4.08 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 17 | 15 | 83 | 339 | 51 | 20 | 6 | 88% | 4.9 | 15.0% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | 3.02 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 113 | 497 | 97 | 43 | 16 | 96% | 4.5 | 17.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 5.03 | 4.97 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 113 | 497 | 97 | 43 | 16 | 96% | 4.5 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 4.37 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 20 | 7 | 51 | 238 | 53 | 20 | 8 | 35% | 2.5 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 6.75 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TB | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 29 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TB | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 29 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | TB | — | — | 95 | 427 | 82 | 38 | 14 | — | — | 19.2% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 6.03 | 4.84 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | TB | — | — | 48 | 201 | 82 | 38 | 14 | — | — | 40.6% | 18.8% | 21.7% | 7.1% | 12.05 | 5.94 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 68 | 286 | 45 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.8% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 5.20 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 64 | 269 | 43 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.0% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 5.27 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 43 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.8% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 5.20 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 41 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.0% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 5.27 | 5.36 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 21 | 173 | 733 | 117 | 71 | 26 | 33% | 2.7 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 5.24 | 4.90 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 24 | 200 | 849 | 136 | 82 | 30 | 32% | 2.7 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 5.24 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 132 | 113 | 548 | 2392 | 384 | 214 | 87 | 86% | 4.2 | 16.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.88 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 41 | 200 | 872 | 140 | 78 | 32 | 86% | 4.2 | 16.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Solesky (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.21 | 15.2% | 9.5% | 3.3% | — | 5.30 | 15.9% | 6.1% | 132 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 78 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 78 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 78 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2027 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 77 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 76 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 76 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 76 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 354 | 75 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 75 |
| Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 75 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.11 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .244 | 3.82 | 15.6% | 4.1% | 68 | -0.29 | 2.20 | 286 | 74 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 74 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 73 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 72 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 72 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 72 |
| Scott McGregor R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 72 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .279 | 5.79 | 16.8% | 5.6% | 41 | +0.85 | 3.68 | 244 | 72 |
| Alex Cobb R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 71 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.14 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 470 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 15.7% | 9.7% | 1.33 | 5.23 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |