Ty Cummings — OGILVIE

Ty Cummings P Arkansas Travelers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%13.9%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	25	25	117	502	124	46	13	100%	4.7	19.0%	10.5%	8.5%	2.8%	4.17	4.34	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	25	25	117	502	124	46	13	100%	4.7	19.0%	10.5%	8.5%	2.8%	4.17	4.34	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	25	25	117	502	124	46	13	100%	4.7	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	2.6%	4.17	3.61	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	20	123	522	92	40	16	69%	4.2	14.2%	8.3%	5.9%	3.7%	3.29	4.99	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	20	123	522	92	40	16	69%	4.2	14.2%	8.3%	5.9%	3.7%	3.29	4.99	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	20	123	522	92	40	16	69%	4.2	17.6%	7.7%	10.0%	3.1%	3.29	4.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	39	0	61	273	51	21	13	0%	1.6	15.1%	8.5%	6.7%	5.7%	5.75	6.03	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	39	0	61	273	51	21	13	0%	1.6	15.1%	8.5%	6.7%	5.7%	5.75	6.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	SEA	39	0	61	273	51	21	13	0%	1.6	18.7%	7.7%	11.0%	4.8%	5.75	5.11	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SEA	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	13.9%	9.7%	4.2%	3.2%	5.30	5.30	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	67	298	54	23	14	—	—	18.3%	7.9%	10.4%	4.6%	5.71	5.97	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SEA	107	0	112	473	74	44	15	0%	1.0	15.6%	9.3%	6.3%	3.2%	5.13	5.08	-0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	SEA	107	0	112	473	79	43	15	0%	1.0	16.7%	9.2%	7.5%	3.2%	5.01	4.97	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	SEA	105	0	110	466	79	43	15	0%	1.1	16.9%	9.2%	7.7%	3.2%	4.97	4.97	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	SEA	102	0	107	452	76	42	15	0%	1.1	16.9%	9.3%	7.6%	3.3%	5.01	5.04	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	SEA	97	0	102	432	72	41	15	0%	1.1	16.7%	9.5%	7.2%	3.5%	5.11	5.17	-0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	SEA	92	0	96	406	66	40	15	0%	1.0	16.3%	9.8%	6.5%	3.7%	5.25	5.35	-0.8
2027	25	MLB CTX	SEA	47	0	49	207	32	19	7	0%	1.0	15.6%	9.3%	6.3%	3.2%	5.13	5.08	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	SEA	71	0	75	317	53	29	10	0%	1.1	16.7%	9.2%	7.5%	3.2%	5.01	4.97	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	SEA	82	0	86	363	61	33	12	0%	1.0	16.9%	9.2%	7.7%	3.2%	4.97	4.97	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	SEA	86	0	90	380	64	35	13	0%	1.0	16.9%	9.3%	7.6%	3.3%	5.01	5.04	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	SEA	86	0	90	380	63	36	13	0%	1.0	16.7%	9.5%	7.2%	3.5%	5.11	5.17	-0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	SEA	83	0	87	367	60	36	13	0%	1.0	16.3%	9.8%	6.5%	3.7%	5.25	5.35	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		454	0	476	2011	334	189	67	0%	1.0	16.6%	9.4%	7.2%	3.3%	5.08	4.72	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	79	28	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.4%	7.2%	3.3%	5.08	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		93	45	301	1297	211	119	49	48%	3.2	16.3%	9.2%	7.1%	3.8%	4.13	4.96	-4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	30	200	863	140	79	32	48%	3.2	16.3%	9.2%	7.1%	3.8%	4.13	4.96	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Cummings (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	13.9%	9.7%	3.2%	—	5.01	16.4%	7.2%	335	-0.29	—	—	—
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	88
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	87
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	87
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	87
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	86
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	85
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	84
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	84
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	83
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	83
Kelvis Valerio R 2016 · 4.23 FIP	24	SW	4.23	11.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.317	4.14	11.7%	4.6%	100	-0.09	4.14	266	82
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	82
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	82
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	81
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.28	14.8%	3.5%	163	+0.78	2.59	367	81
Drasen Johnson R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	24	SW	4.70	9.6%	5.7%	3.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	110	81
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	81
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	80
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	103	16.2%	9.4%	1.28	5.10
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58