Ty Cummings

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+SEA	25	25	117	4.17	3.61	24.7%	9.2%	—	K 19.0% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.34
2025	23	MIX2 levels	29	20	123	3.29	4.27	17.6%	7.7%	—	K 14.2% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.99
2026	24	AASEA	40	0	62	5.66	5.25	18.4%	7.9%	—	K 14.9% · BB 8.7% · FIP 6.04
2027PROJ	25	MLBSEA	1	0	1	5.54	5.54	13.5%	9.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBSEA	34	0	36	5.37	5.34	15.2%	9.2%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSEA	43	0	45	5.29	5.29	15.7%	9.2%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDennis O'Grady (age 26) · Paulshawn Pasqualotto (age 23) · Hunter Adkins (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%13.5%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	25	25	117	502	124	46	13	100%	4.7	19.0%	10.5%	8.5%	2.8%	4.17	4.34	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	25	25	117	502	124	46	13	100%	4.7	19.0%	10.5%	8.5%	2.8%	4.17	4.34	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	25	25	117	502	124	46	13	100%	4.7	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	2.6%	4.17	3.61	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	20	123	522	92	40	16	69%	4.2	14.2%	8.3%	5.9%	3.7%	3.29	4.99	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	20	123	522	92	40	16	69%	4.2	14.2%	8.3%	5.9%	3.7%	3.29	4.99	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	20	123	522	92	40	16	69%	4.2	17.6%	7.7%	10.0%	3.1%	3.29	4.27	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	40	0	62	277	51	22	13	0%	1.6	14.9%	8.7%	6.2%	5.6%	5.66	6.04	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	40	0	62	277	51	22	13	0%	1.6	14.9%	8.7%	6.2%	5.6%	5.66	6.04	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	40	0	62	277	51	22	13	0%	1.6	18.4%	7.9%	10.5%	4.7%	5.66	5.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SEA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	13.5%	9.4%	4.1%	3.7%	5.54	5.54	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SEA	78	0	82	348	53	32	12	0%	1.1	15.2%	9.2%	6.0%	3.6%	5.37	5.34	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	SEA	68	0	71	300	47	28	11	0%	1.0	15.7%	9.2%	6.5%	3.6%	5.29	5.29	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	SEA	62	0	65	274	44	25	10	0%	1.0	15.9%	9.3%	6.6%	3.7%	5.29	5.32	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	SEA	57	0	60	252	40	24	10	0%	1.0	15.8%	9.4%	6.3%	3.8%	5.36	5.43	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	SEA	52	0	54	230	35	22	9	0%	1.0	15.4%	9.8%	5.7%	4.0%	5.51	5.61	-0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	SEA	34	0	36	152	23	14	5	0%	1.1	15.2%	9.2%	6.0%	3.6%	5.37	5.34	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	SEA	43	0	45	190	30	17	7	0%	1.0	15.7%	9.2%	6.5%	3.6%	5.29	5.29	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	SEA	47	0	49	207	33	19	8	0%	1.0	15.9%	9.3%	6.6%	3.7%	5.29	5.32	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	SEA	47	0	49	207	33	20	8	0%	1.0	15.8%	9.4%	6.3%	3.8%	5.36	5.43	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	SEA	45	0	47	198	31	19	8	0%	1.0	15.4%	9.8%	5.7%	4.0%	5.51	5.61	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		215	0	226	953	149	89	36	0%	1.1	15.6%	9.4%	6.2%	3.7%	5.36	5.02	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	132	79	32	0%	1.1	15.6%	9.4%	6.2%	3.7%	5.36	5.02	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		94	45	302	1301	211	120	49	48%	3.2	16.2%	9.3%	7.0%	3.8%	4.12	4.96	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	30	200	863	140	80	32	48%	3.2	16.2%	9.3%	7.0%	3.8%	4.12	4.96	-1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 62 IPFIP 5.13 → 6.04 (+0.91)K% 18.4% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.41%	—	×0.810	14.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.94%	—	×1.100	8.74%
HR / BF /BF	4.69%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.63%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.13 → 6.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 116 IPFIP 4.14 → 4.99 (+0.85)K% 17.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.52%	—	×0.810	14.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.54%	—	×1.100	8.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.85%	÷0.922	×1.200	3.71%

Result: FIP 4.14 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 7 IPFIP 6.23 → 5.62 (−0.61)K% 19.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.35%	—	×0.860	16.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×0.900	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	6.45%	÷1.380	×1.100	5.14%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 176).

Result: FIP 6.23 → 5.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 117 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.34 (+0.74)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.70%	—	×0.770	19.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.16%	—	×1.150	10.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷1.175	×1.250	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 135).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Cummings (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	13.5%	9.4%	3.7%	—	5.32	15.6%	6.3%	218	-0.22	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	87
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	85
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	85
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	85
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	84
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	84
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	84
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	83
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	83
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	82
Fernando Nieve R 2006 · 5.18 FIP	24	SW	5.18	17.0%	8.8%	4.4%	.240	4.67	14.3%	3.1%	37	-0.51	1.96	287	81
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	81
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	81
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	81
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	81
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	80
Lance Cormier R 2006 · 4.55 FIP	25	SW	4.55	12.9%	9.6%	2.4%	.328	4.73	12.7%	4.2%	195	+0.18	3.80	469	80
Dominic DeMasi R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	13.0%	6.9%	4.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	275	80
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	67	15.2%	9.4%	1.43	5.39
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*