Ty Cummings
P
Arkansas Travelers
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.9 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 81 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139129vR 120
ERA5.32
FIP5.32
K%13.9%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%4.3%
ROS IP81
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 25 | 25 | 117 | 502 | 124 | 46 | 13 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 4.17 | 4.14 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 25 | 25 | 117 | 502 | 124 | 46 | 13 | 100% | 4.7 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 3.61 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 20 | 123 | 522 | 92 | 40 | 16 | 69% | 4.2 | 14.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.29 | 5.18 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 20 | 123 | 522 | 92 | 40 | 16 | 69% | 4.2 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 3.29 | 4.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 25 | 0 | 37 | 162 | 32 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.1% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.06 | 5.67 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 78 | 0 | 81 | 344 | 48 | 33 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.32 | 5.32 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.27 | 5.27 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 119 | 506 | 80 | 47 | 18 | — | — | 15.7% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 5.24 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 13.9% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.27 | 4.89 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 78 | 0 | 82 | 348 | 54 | 32 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 5.15 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 78 | 0 | 82 | 348 | 58 | 31 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 4.99 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 77 | 0 | 81 | 343 | 58 | 31 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 4.99 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 75 | 0 | 79 | 333 | 63 | 28 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 59 | 27 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 24 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 39 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 45 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 53 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 52 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 275 | 0 | 288 | 1217 | 214 | 107 | 39 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.51 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 148 | 74 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 79 | 45 | 277 | 1186 | 194 | 112 | 41 | 57% | 3.5 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 3.90 | 4.81 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 32 | 200 | 856 | 140 | 81 | 30 | 57% | 3.5 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 3.90 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ty Cummings (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.32 | 13.9% | 9.5% | 3.3% | — | 5.03 | 16.4% | 7.3% | 246 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 88 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2028 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 87 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 86 |
| Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 84 |
| Marco Camarena R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .365 | 3.81 | 8.4% | 0.9% | 73 | -0.72 | 3.81 | 142 | 83 |
| Thomas Ponticelli R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.73 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .264 | 5.29 | 15.3% | 2.9% | 163 | +0.56 | 2.59 | 367 | 83 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.20 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.18 | 4.20 | 171 | 83 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 82 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 82 |
| Justin Dillon R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .265 | 4.34 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 124 | -0.89 | 3.63 | 239 | 82 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.3% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .302 | 4.58 | 15.7% | 5.8% | 124 | +0.45 | 4.13 | 240 | 82 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 81 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.46 | 14.7% | 10.6% | 4.1% | .330 | 4.19 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 139 | -1.27 | 3.27 | 339 | 81 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 81 |
| Kevin Johnson R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 81 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 81 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 81 |
| Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.83 | 12.5% | 8.9% | 4.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 146 | 81 |
| Alex Sanabia R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 11.4% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .358 | 3.56 | 11.1% | 6.2% | 161 | -0.91 | 3.51 | 378 | 81 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 80 | 16.7% | 9.0% | 1.28 | 5.04 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Drew Hutchison ('22) | 5 | 69 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 1.39 | 5.16 |
| Luis Perdomo ('22) | 5 | 90 | 16.6% | 7.8% | 1.08 | 5.09 |
| Matt Moore ('24) | 8 | 98 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 1.33 | 4.82 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |