Ty Cummings
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2028
ERA4.85
FIP4.85
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.1%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%9.1%
IP116
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 25 | 25 | 117 | 502 | 124 | 46 | 13 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.30 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 29 | 20 | 123 | 522 | 92 | 40 | 16 | 14.2% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 3.29 | 5.00 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 89 | 44 | 16 | 18.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.85 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 120 | 503 | 93 | 45 | 17 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 106 | 47 | 17 | 19.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 137 | 577 | 115 | 49 | 18 | 20.0% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.61 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 140 | 590 | 119 | 50 | 19 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 140 | 589 | 119 | 50 | 19 | 20.1% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 136 | 576 | 115 | 50 | 19 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.66 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 132 | 559 | 111 | 49 | 18 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 128 | 540 | 105 | 48 | 18 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 100 | 47 | 18 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.89 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 117 | 495 | 94 | 45 | 18 | 19.0% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 88 | 44 | 17 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.10 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 81 | 43 | 17 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 5.14 | 5.22 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 74 | 41 | 16 | 17.8% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 5.27 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 45 | 243 | 1036 | 174 | 97 | 34 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 3.70 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 37 | 200 | 853 | 143 | 80 | 28 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 3.70 | 4.67 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ty Cummings (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 18.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.63 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 406 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 94 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 93 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 92 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 92 |
| Ryan Hawks R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.77 | 13.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 2.10 | 19.9% | 14.5% | 15 | -2.67 | 2.10 | 252 | 91 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .307 | 3.96 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.48 | 3.22 | 907 | 91 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 90 |
| Jackson Wentworth R 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.95 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.95 | 124 | 90 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 90 |
| Blaine Knight R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .263 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.05 | 4.35 | 269 | 90 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 89 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.17 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.93 | 354 | 89 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.98 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 155 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 315 | 89 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 89 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 89 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 89 |
| Derek Casey R 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 13.6% | 8.5% | 4.1% | .311 | 2.95 | 22.3% | 13.2% | 58 | -2.32 | 2.95 | 180 | 88 |
| Chris Devenski R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .298 | 2.89 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 236 | -1.19 | 2.10 | 608 | 88 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 88 |
| Jose Reyes R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.24 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .289 | 5.11 | 11.0% | 2.8% | 100 | +0.87 | 4.24 | 225 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| Totals | $6M | $40M | +$33M | ||