Tyler Santana
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.1
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.6%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%9.1%
IP68
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†4040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 9 | 1 | 20 | 83 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 1.7% | 1.35 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 24 | 8 | 99 | 398 | 93 | 31 | 3 | 17.3% | 9.2% | 1.0% | 2.28 | 3.37 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 30 | 9 | 91 | 390 | 78 | 35 | 9 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.07 | 4.46 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 32 | 1 | 73 | 327 | 64 | 32 | 10 | 14.8% | 11.6% | 4.2% | 5.20 | 5.63 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 35 | 1 | 64 | 275 | 50 | 22 | 4 | 14.7% | 8.8% | 1.9% | 4.06 | 4.03 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 4 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 10.2% | 18.2% | 6.3% | 6.17 | 8.03 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 48 | 29 | 8 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 80 | 339 | 54 | 38 | 11 | 16.0% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 5.10 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 49 | 29 | 8 | 17.3% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.91 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 48 | 28 | 8 | 17.6% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 46 | 27 | 8 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 44 | 26 | 8 | 17.5% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 41 | 26 | 8 | 17.2% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 5.07 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 38 | 25 | 8 | 16.9% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 35 | 24 | 7 | 16.5% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 5.29 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 32 | 23 | 7 | 16.0% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 5.42 | 5.50 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 134 | 20 | 358 | 1525 | 240 | 161 | 38 | 15.7% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 4.46 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 11 | 200 | 852 | 134 | 90 | 21 | 15.7% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 4.46 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Santana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.94 | 17.5% | 7.3% | 193 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 94 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 90 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 88 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.13 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .302 | 5.19 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +1.06 | 4.13 | 265 | 87 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 87 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.01 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.10 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.09 | 3.18 | 253 | 87 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 86 |
| Collin Balester R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.20 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -1.03 | 3.20 | 116 | 86 |
| Drew Hayes R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 117 | 86 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.10 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 4.07 | 14.1% | 5.5% | 68 | -1.03 | 4.06 | 256 | 85 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 85 |
| Eder Llamas R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.85 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.65 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.20 | 3.23 | 171 | 85 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.38 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 84 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2029 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 84 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.80 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 3.29 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.51 | 3.15 | 485 | 83 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.01 | 18.2% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .298 | 5.22 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 164 | +1.21 | 3.73 | 399 | 83 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 83 |
| Wil Browning R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.45 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.2% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 162 | 83 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.39 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 109 | 82 |
| Tyler Mizenko R 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.14 | 13.3% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 104 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.