Tyler Santana — OGILVIE

Tyler Santana P Knoxville Smokies

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%13.4%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%2.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	1	20	83	23	10	1	11%	2.2	20.3%	15.1%	5.1%	1.8%	1.35	4.28	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	1	20	83	23	10	1	11%	2.2	27.7%	12.0%	15.7%	1.2%	1.35	2.95	—
2022	24	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	8	99	398	93	31	3	33%	4.1	17.3%	9.2%	8.1%	1.0%	2.28	3.37	—
2022	24	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	8	99	398	93	31	3	33%	4.1	23.4%	7.8%	15.6%	0.8%	2.28	2.55	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	30	9	91	390	78	35	9	30%	3.0	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	2.4%	4.07	4.43	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	30	9	91	390	78	35	9	30%	3.0	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	2.4%	4.07	4.43	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	30	9	91	390	78	35	9	30%	3.0	20.0%	9.0%	11.0%	2.3%	4.07	3.83	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	73	327	64	32	10	3%	2.3	14.8%	11.6%	3.2%	4.3%	5.20	5.69	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	73	327	64	32	10	3%	2.3	14.8%	11.6%	3.2%	4.3%	5.20	5.69	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	73	327	64	32	10	3%	2.3	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.1%	5.20	4.45	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	35	1	64	275	50	22	4	3%	1.8	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	1.9%	4.06	4.02	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	35	1	64	275	50	22	4	3%	1.8	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	1.9%	4.06	4.02	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	35	1	64	275	50	22	4	3%	1.8	18.2%	8.0%	10.2%	1.5%	4.06	3.38	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	30	0	57	260	51	27	8	0%	1.9	16.0%	10.2%	5.8%	3.4%	5.02	4.92	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	30	0	57	260	51	27	8	0%	1.9	16.0%	10.2%	5.8%	3.4%	5.02	4.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	CHC	18	0	33	144	37	11	1	0%	1.8	25.7%	7.6%	18.1%	0.7%	3.82	2.28	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	CHC	12	0	24	116	14	16	7	0%	2.0	12.1%	13.8%	-1.7%	6.0%	6.66	7.14	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CHC	6	0	6	25	3	3	1	0%	1.0	13.4%	10.7%	2.7%	2.8%	5.27	5.27	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	63	285	54	30	9	—	—	19.1%	10.4%	8.7%	3.1%	5.05	4.95	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CHC	63	0	66	280	40	30	8	0%	1.1	14.2%	10.8%	3.4%	3.0%	5.25	5.30	-0.6
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	59	0	62	263	38	29	8	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.9%	3.5%	3.2%	5.31	5.41	-0.6
2027	29	MLB CTX	CHC	20	0	21	89	13	10	3	0%	1.1	14.2%	10.8%	3.4%	3.0%	5.25	5.30	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	30	0	32	135	20	15	4	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.9%	3.5%	3.2%	5.31	5.41	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	53	223	32	24	7	0%	1.1	14.4%	10.9%	3.5%	3.1%	5.29	4.98	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	121	91	27	0%	1.1	14.4%	10.9%	3.5%	3.1%	5.29	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		160	20	404	1733	276	178	43	12%	2.5	15.9%	10.3%	5.7%	2.5%	3.83	4.43	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	10	200	859	137	88	21	12%	2.5	15.9%	10.3%	5.7%	2.5%	3.83	4.43	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Santana (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	13.4%	10.7%	2.8%	—	5.35	14.3%	3.5%	128	+0.08	—	—	—
Casey Coleman R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	12.6%	11.4%	1.5%	.349	4.14	18.3%	8.9%	146	-0.18	2.95	306	85
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	84
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	83
Grant Black R 2022 · 5.20 FIP	28	SU	5.20	14.0%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	5.54	15.4%	4.1%	79	+0.34	4.46	215	82
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	81
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	80
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	80
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	79
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	79
Benjamin Sandoval R 2015 · 4.66 FIP	28	SU	4.66	8.6%	7.8%	2.4%	.253	5.16	5.8%	-5.7%	62	+0.50	4.66	146	79
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	78
Collin Balester R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	14.2%	9.3%	2.1%	.240	3.20	21.2%	15.4%	43	-1.02	3.20	116	78
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	78
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	78
Jose De La Torre R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	29	SU	4.40	14.5%	13.1%	1.6%	.256	2.98	21.6%	14.2%	65	-1.42	2.64	130	78
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	78
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	78
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	77
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	76
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	14.0%	10.8%	1.17	5.28
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10