Tyler Santana
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 119
ERA5.28
FIP5.28
K%13.4%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%2.9%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 1 | 20 | 83 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 11% | 2.2 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 1.35 | 4.36 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 1 | 20 | 83 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 11% | 2.2 | 27.7% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 1.2% | 1.35 | 2.95 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 24 | 8 | 99 | 398 | 93 | 31 | 3 | 33% | 4.1 | 17.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 1.1% | 2.28 | 3.41 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 24 | 8 | 99 | 398 | 93 | 31 | 3 | 33% | 4.1 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 15.6% | 0.8% | 2.28 | 2.55 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 30 | 9 | 91 | 390 | 78 | 35 | 9 | 30% | 3.0 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 4.07 | 4.24 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 30 | 9 | 91 | 390 | 78 | 35 | 9 | 30% | 3.0 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 2.3% | 4.07 | 3.83 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 1 | 73 | 327 | 64 | 32 | 10 | 3% | 2.3 | 14.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.20 | 5.95 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 1 | 73 | 327 | 64 | 32 | 10 | 3% | 2.3 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 5.20 | 4.45 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 35 | 1 | 64 | 275 | 50 | 22 | 4 | 3% | 1.8 | 14.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 4.06 | 4.14 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 35 | 1 | 64 | 275 | 50 | 22 | 4 | 3% | 1.8 | 18.2% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 1.5% | 4.06 | 3.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 23 | 0 | 49 | 215 | 45 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 2.1 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 39 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 5.28 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 118 | 508 | 84 | 52 | 15 | — | — | 16.6% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 5.01 | 5.03 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 13.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 40 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.2% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.26 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 38 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.5% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.32 | 5.42 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.2% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.26 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 20 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.5% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.32 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 33 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.30 | 5.00 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 122 | 89 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.30 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 153 | 20 | 395 | 1688 | 272 | 174 | 42 | 13% | 2.6 | 16.1% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 3.76 | 4.42 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 10 | 200 | 855 | 138 | 88 | 21 | 13% | 2.6 | 16.1% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 3.76 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Santana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.28 | 13.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | — | 5.37 | 14.3% | 3.6% | 128 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 85 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.22 | 12.6% | 11.4% | 1.3% | .349 | 4.18 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 146 | -0.04 | 2.86 | 306 | 84 |
| Drew Hayes R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 117 | 83 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 83 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.11 | 14.0% | 11.0% | 3.3% | .250 | 5.81 | 16.3% | 3.1% | 79 | +0.70 | 4.49 | 215 | 82 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 81 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 81 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 79 |
| Jose Casilla R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 104 | 78 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 78 |
| Benjamin Sandoval R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.89 | 8.6% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .253 | 5.27 | 5.8% | -5.7% | 62 | +0.38 | 4.89 | 146 | 78 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2023 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 78 |
| Kyle McMyne R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 12.5% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 181 | 78 |
| Mark Peterson R 2024 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.84 | 13.7% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 185 | 77 |
| Collin Balester R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.25 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.40 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -0.85 | 3.40 | 116 | 77 |
| Alex Caldera R 2027 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 77 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.23 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 3.92 | 14.1% | 5.5% | 68 | -1.31 | 3.92 | 256 | 77 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .256 | 2.88 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 65 | -1.51 | 2.54 | 130 | 76 |
| Warwick Saupold R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.00 | 13.7% | 7.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 389 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 14.0% | 10.6% | 1.20 | 5.29 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |