Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 23 | 100 | 413 | 135 | 48 | 4 | 92% | 4.0 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 1.2% | 2.53 | 3.31 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 23 | 100 | 413 | 135 | 48 | 4 | 92% | 4.0 | 32.7% | 11.6% | 21.1% | 1.0% | 2.53 | 2.36 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 15 | 15 | 62 | 261 | 51 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 4.2 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.89 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 15 | 15 | 62 | 261 | 51 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 4.2 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 4.62 | 3.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 14 | 14 | 64 | 252 | 73 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 4.6 | 23.5% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 4.20 | 5.86 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 53 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 129 | 526 | 126 | 63 | 20 | — | — | 24.0% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.4% | 12.3% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 58 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 59 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 59 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 46 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 22 | 129 | 543 | 112 | 61 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.38 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 95 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 54 | 52 | 226 | 926 | 204 | 115 | 28 | 96% | 4.2 | 22.1% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 3.58 | 4.45 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 46 | 200 | 818 | 181 | 101 | 25 | 96% | 4.2 | 22.1% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 3.58 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Baumeister (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.76 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 203 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 87 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 86 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 86 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 84 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 84 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.95 | 13.8% | -5.5% | 46 | +0.43 | 4.52 | 196 | 82 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 82 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.08 | 15.9% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .266 | 5.68 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 29 | +1.60 | 3.93 | 223 | 82 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 82 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 81 |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 81 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 81 |
| Burch Smith R 2029 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 80 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 80 |
| Michael Wagner R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.27 | 16.4% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 149 | 80 |
| Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 16.9% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .317 | 4.33 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.61 | 428 | 79 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 79 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 79 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 1.9% | .329 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 5.1% | 59 | +0.81 | 4.45 | 194 | 79 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 1.11 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |