Juaron Watts-Brown

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	21	21	103	4.72	4.07	28.9%	13.2%	—	K 21.8% · BB 15.4% · FIP 5.25
2025	23	MIX2 levels	26	26	124	3.62	3.44	30.7%	9.7%	—	K 24.4% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.16
2026	24	MIX3 levels	27	24	110	6.63	4.97	26.4%	13.2%	—	K 20.7% · BB 13.2% · FIP 5.91
2027PROJ	25	MLBBAL	1	1	3	5.43	5.43	21.5%	13.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBBAL	8	8	51	5.29	5.27	22.1%	12.4%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBAL	11	11	66	5.22	5.23	22.1%	12.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 5.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 78%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Nic Swanson (age 25) · Justin Armbruester (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%21.5%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	103	453	131	60	14	100%	4.9	21.8%	15.4%	6.4%	3.7%	4.72	5.25	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	103	453	131	60	14	100%	4.9	21.8%	15.4%	6.4%	3.7%	4.72	5.25	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	103	453	131	60	14	100%	4.9	28.9%	13.2%	15.7%	3.1%	4.72	4.07	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	124	515	158	50	16	100%	4.8	24.4%	10.8%	13.6%	3.2%	3.62	4.16	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	124	515	158	50	16	100%	4.8	24.4%	10.8%	13.6%	3.2%	3.62	4.16	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	124	515	158	50	16	100%	4.8	30.7%	9.7%	21.0%	3.1%	3.62	3.44	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	110	508	134	67	21	89%	4.1	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	5.2%	6.63	5.91	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	110	508	134	67	21	89%	4.1	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	5.2%	6.63	5.91	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	24	110	508	134	67	21	89%	4.1	26.4%	13.2%	13.2%	4.1%	6.63	4.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BAL	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	21.5%	13.0%	8.6%	3.9%	5.43	5.43	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	116	492	109	61	19	100%	6.1	22.1%	12.4%	9.7%	3.8%	5.29	5.27	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	104	439	97	53	17	100%	6.1	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	3.8%	5.22	5.23	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	96	407	89	49	16	100%	6.0	21.9%	12.0%	9.9%	3.8%	5.23	5.26	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	89	376	82	46	15	100%	5.9	21.7%	12.2%	9.5%	4.0%	5.31	5.37	+0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	80	339	72	42	14	100%	6.2	21.3%	12.5%	8.9%	4.2%	5.45	5.55	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	51	215	48	27	8	100%	6.4	22.1%	12.4%	9.7%	3.8%	5.29	5.27	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	66	279	62	34	11	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	3.8%	5.22	5.23	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	73	308	68	37	12	100%	6.1	21.9%	12.0%	9.9%	3.8%	5.23	5.26	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	73	308	67	37	12	100%	6.1	21.7%	12.2%	9.5%	4.0%	5.31	5.37	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	69	291	62	36	12	100%	5.8	21.3%	12.5%	8.9%	4.2%	5.45	5.55	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	55	332	1400	305	171	55	100%	6.0	21.8%	12.2%	9.6%	3.9%	5.30	4.96	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	184	103	33	100%	6.0	21.8%	12.2%	9.6%	3.9%	5.30	4.96	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		74	71	337	1476	329	192	60	96%	4.6	22.3%	13.0%	9.3%	4.1%	4.94	5.10	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	875	195	114	36	96%	4.6	22.3%	13.0%	9.3%	4.1%	4.94	5.10	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 59 IPFIP 4.24 → 5.28 (+1.04)K% 28.5% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.46%	—	×0.810	23.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×1.100	10.58%
HR / BF /BF	4.23%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.08%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.24 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 37 IPFIP 6.44 → 6.72 (+0.28)K% 20.4% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.40%	—	×0.860	17.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.41%	—	×0.900	16.57%
HR / BF /BF	4.98%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.47%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.44 → 6.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 14 IPFIP 1.03 → 2.02 (+0.99)K% 40.4% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.43%	—	×0.770	31.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.64%	—	×1.150	12.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.03 → 2.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 87 IPFIP 4.32 → 4.80 (+0.48)K% 26.7% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.74%	—	×0.810	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.58%	—	×1.100	11.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.90%	÷1.248	×1.200	3.75%

Result: FIP 4.32 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 37 IPFIP 1.42 → 2.66 (+1.24)K% 39.7% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.74%	—	×0.770	30.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷0.855	×1.250	1.87%

Result: FIP 1.42 → 2.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 58 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.86 (+1.14)K% 30.3% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.33%	—	×0.740	22.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.89%	—	×1.180	14.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.003	×1.300	1.59%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 45 IPFIP 5.56 → 6.89 (+1.32)K% 27.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.770	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.83%	—	×1.150	17.06%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.062	×1.250	6.20%

Result: FIP 5.56 → 6.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juaron Watts-Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.9%	—	5.25	22.0%	9.8%	317	-0.18	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	85
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	82
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	82
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	82
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	82
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	82
Dom Hamel R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	25	SP	5.31	18.3%	11.9%	4.1%	.330	4.96	17.9%	8.8%	180	-0.35	3.61	547	80
Brady Feigl R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	25	SP	5.26	19.4%	9.6%	4.7%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	257	80
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	79
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	79
Shao-Ching Chiang R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	575	79
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	79
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	79
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	79
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	78
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	77
Nick Nastrini R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	24	SP	5.76	19.5%	14.6%	4.5%	.276	6.44	18.0%	-1.2%	47	+0.68	4.02	412	77
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	77
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	77
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	105	21.8%	12.4%	1.51	5.32
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Joe Cowley ('82-'87, 3 WAR*)	2.3	117	22.7%*	11.2%*	1.55*	4.37*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*