Juaron Watts-Brown

Juaron Watts-Brown P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION102 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%23.6%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6055

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	103	453	131	60	14	100%	4.9	21.8%	15.4%	6.4%	3.7%	4.72	5.25	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	103	453	131	60	14	100%	4.9	21.8%	15.4%	6.4%	3.7%	4.72	5.25	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	103	453	131	60	14	100%	4.9	28.9%	13.2%	15.7%	3.1%	4.72	4.07	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	124	515	158	50	16	100%	4.8	24.4%	10.8%	13.6%	3.2%	3.62	4.16	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	124	515	158	50	16	100%	4.8	24.4%	10.8%	13.6%	3.2%	3.62	4.16	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	124	515	158	50	16	100%	4.8	30.7%	9.7%	21.0%	3.1%	3.62	3.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	25	22	102	464	128	61	18	88%	4.1	21.3%	13.3%	8.1%	5.0%	6.26	5.73	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	25	22	102	464	128	61	18	88%	4.1	21.3%	13.3%	8.1%	5.0%	6.26	5.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	BAL	3	3	14	47	19	5	0	100%	4.6	40.4%	10.6%	29.8%	0.0%	0.66	1.03	—
2026	24	AA RAW	BAL	14	14	59	260	74	25	11	100%	4.2	28.5%	9.6%	18.8%	4.2%	5.76	4.24	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	BAL	8	5	29	157	35	31	7	62%	3.6	22.3%	19.7%	2.5%	4.5%	9.93	6.17	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	BAL	2	2	12	51	12	6	2	100%	6.1	23.6%	12.2%	11.4%	3.2%	4.79	4.79	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	114	515	140	67	20	—	—	27.2%	13.1%	14.1%	3.8%	6.11	5.63	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	146	617	147	68	20	100%	5.8	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	3.2%	4.66	4.61	+0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	146	617	147	66	20	100%	6.1	23.9%	10.7%	13.2%	3.2%	4.59	4.56	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	144	608	145	65	20	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.7%	13.2%	3.2%	4.58	4.58	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	140	589	139	63	19	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.7%	12.9%	3.3%	4.62	4.66	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	133	563	132	62	19	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.5%	4.72	4.79	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	125	529	122	60	19	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.3%	11.8%	3.7%	4.87	4.97	-0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	117	493	112	57	19	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	3.9%	5.05	5.17	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	64	270	64	30	9	100%	5.8	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	3.3%	4.74	4.69	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	98	414	99	44	14	100%	6.1	23.9%	10.7%	13.2%	3.3%	4.67	4.64	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	112	473	113	50	16	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.7%	13.2%	3.4%	4.66	4.66	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	118	498	118	53	17	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.7%	12.9%	3.5%	4.70	4.74	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	117	494	116	54	18	100%	5.8	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.6%	4.81	4.88	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	113	477	110	54	18	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.3%	11.8%	3.8%	4.96	5.06	-0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	107	452	102	52	18	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	4.1%	5.15	5.27	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		122	122	728	3073	720	338	110	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.6%	4.82	4.48	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	198	93	30	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.6%	4.82	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		72	69	329	1432	323	187	56	96%	4.6	22.6%	13.1%	9.5%	3.9%	4.78	5.01	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	870	196	114	34	96%	4.6	22.6%	13.1%	9.5%	3.9%	4.78	5.01	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juaron Watts-Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	23.6%	12.2%	3.2%	—	4.58	23.9%	13.0%	436	-0.21	—	—	—
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	88
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	86
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	84
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	83
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	22.7%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	6.00	18.5%	2.7%	168	+1.97	4.03	412	82
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	82
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.16	17.5%	7.3%	304	+1.22	3.61	547	82
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	81
Chih-Jung Liu R 2023 · 5.16 FIP	24	SP	5.16	23.0%	13.2%	4.3%	.344	5.61	31.7%	18.3%	18	+0.45	4.41	283	80
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.8%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.15	17.4%	7.7%	331	+0.88	3.95	567	80
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	80
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	80
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	20.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.85	20.0%	13.6%	140	-0.63	2.39	485	80
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	79
Thomas Harrington R 2023 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	21.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.317	4.48	18.7%	11.9%	314	+0.41	3.33	441	79
Trevor Bauer R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	22.8%	10.5%	3.1%	.273	3.25	25.8%	17.7%	542	-0.95	2.16	1,111	79
Jaime Schultz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	23.2%	16.9%	2.3%	.297	3.87	27.5%	14.7%	209	-0.67	2.19	391	79
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	79
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	137	23.5%	11.1%	1.30	4.73
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36