Juaron Watts-Brown
P
Chesapeake Baysox
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.1 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 106
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
K%23.6%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 103 | 453 | 131 | 60 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.8% | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 4.72 | 5.17 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 103 | 453 | 131 | 60 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 28.9% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 124 | 515 | 158 | 50 | 16 | 100% | 4.8 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 3.62 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 124 | 515 | 158 | 50 | 16 | 100% | 4.8 | 30.7% | 9.7% | 21.0% | 3.1% | 3.62 | 3.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 15 | 15 | 63 | 265 | 82 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 4.2 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 5.5% | 5.03 | 5.68 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 65 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 127 | 539 | 147 | 61 | 18 | — | — | 27.2% | 11.4% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 5.17 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.6% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 25 | 25 | 146 | 617 | 147 | 67 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.50 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 146 | 617 | 147 | 65 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.46 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 145 | 63 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 140 | 589 | 139 | 62 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 133 | 563 | 132 | 61 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 125 | 529 | 122 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.88 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 64 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 99 | 44 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 113 | 49 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 118 | 52 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 116 | 53 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.4% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 110 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 4.85 | 4.95 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 104 | 622 | 2626 | 619 | 281 | 88 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.30 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 90 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 62 | 62 | 290 | 1233 | 286 | 158 | 45 | 100% | 4.7 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.31 | 4.78 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 850 | 197 | 109 | 31 | 100% | 4.7 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.31 | 4.78 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juaron Watts-Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.48 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 436 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 91 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.19 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .291 | 5.46 | 18.2% | 4.6% | 163 | +1.27 | 4.19 | 285 | 87 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.63 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 79 | -0.22 | 3.48 | 331 | 86 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.02 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 4.6% | .279 | 5.06 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 160 | +0.04 | 5.01 | 282 | 85 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.65 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .280 | 6.01 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 56 | +2.36 | 3.65 | 287 | 84 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 3.51 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.68 | 3.51 | 220 | 84 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.20 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.07 | 1.96 | 352 | 84 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 83 |
| Chad Kuhl R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.93 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.73 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 131 | +0.80 | 3.93 | 983 | 83 |
| Dom Hamel R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.08 | 24.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | .314 | 5.13 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 271 | +1.05 | 3.65 | 514 | 82 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 3.8% | .304 | 5.34 | 18.0% | 6.5% | 170 | +0.51 | 3.81 | 527 | 81 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 81 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.36 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.88 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 157 | +0.52 | 4.04 | 402 | 81 |
| Félix Peña R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.68 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .296 | 3.92 | 24.0% | 15.6% | 263 | +0.24 | 2.84 | 615 | 81 |
| Trevor Bauer R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.20 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .273 | 3.25 | 25.8% | 17.7% | 542 | -0.95 | 2.16 | 1,111 | 80 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 80 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .344 | 5.55 | 31.7% | 18.3% | 18 | +0.49 | 4.72 | 283 | 79 |
| Gavin Stone R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .309 | 4.02 | 20.0% | 13.6% | 140 | -0.59 | 2.39 | 485 | 79 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.10 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.53 | 3.57 | 252 | 79 |
| Jaime Schultz R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.56 | 23.2% | 16.9% | 2.3% | .297 | 3.80 | 27.5% | 14.7% | 209 | -0.76 | 2.14 | 391 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 140 | 23.6% | 10.9% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |