Trace Bright — OGILVIE

Trace Bright P Norfolk Tides

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 199 lbs AAA peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%18.0%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%0.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	1	10	35	9	4	0	25%	2.4	25.7%	11.4%	14.3%	0.0%	1.86	2.38	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	1	10	35	9	4	0	25%	2.4	25.7%	11.4%	14.3%	0.0%	1.86	2.48	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	100	434	147	56	9	81%	3.8	26.3%	14.7%	11.5%	2.8%	3.97	4.26	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	100	434	147	56	9	81%	3.8	26.3%	14.7%	11.5%	2.8%	3.97	4.26	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	100	434	147	56	9	81%	3.8	33.9%	12.9%	21.0%	2.1%	3.97	3.01	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	27	112	489	120	60	13	100%	4.1	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	2.6%	4.18	4.53	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	27	112	489	120	60	13	100%	4.1	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	2.6%	4.18	4.53	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	27	27	112	489	120	60	13	100%	4.1	24.5%	12.3%	12.3%	2.7%	4.18	4.07	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	23	15	87	377	82	58	4	65%	3.8	17.6%	16.9%	0.7%	1.0%	4.74	4.32	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	23	15	87	377	82	58	4	65%	3.8	17.6%	16.9%	0.7%	1.0%	4.74	4.32	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	23	15	87	377	82	58	4	65%	3.8	21.8%	15.4%	6.4%	1.1%	4.74	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	26	24	114	512	123	57	23	92%	4.4	19.8%	10.7%	9.0%	5.0%	6.63	5.52	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	26	24	114	512	123	57	23	92%	4.4	19.8%	10.7%	9.0%	5.0%	6.63	5.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	BAL	7	6	31	128	45	18	2	86%	4.4	35.2%	14.1%	21.1%	1.6%	3.82	2.77	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	BAL	19	18	83	384	78	39	21	95%	4.4	20.3%	10.2%	10.2%	5.5%	7.67	5.67	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	BAL	1	1	6	25	4	4	1	100%	5.9	18.0%	17.4%	0.6%	2.4%	5.48	5.48	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	120	537	127	61	24	—	—	23.7%	11.4%	12.3%	4.4%	6.57	5.52	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	119	501	93	82	12	100%	5.9	18.6%	16.4%	2.2%	2.5%	5.34	5.34	-0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	121	510	96	81	13	100%	6.0	18.8%	15.8%	3.0%	2.5%	5.28	5.29	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	121	510	96	79	14	100%	6.0	18.9%	15.6%	3.3%	2.7%	5.29	5.32	-0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	115	487	91	76	14	100%	6.1	18.7%	15.6%	3.1%	2.8%	5.36	5.43	-0.7
2031	30	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	108	458	84	73	14	100%	6.0	18.4%	15.9%	2.5%	3.0%	5.51	5.61	-0.9
2027	26	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	57	241	45	39	6	100%	5.7	18.6%	16.4%	2.2%	2.5%	5.34	5.34	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	80	338	64	53	9	100%	6.2	18.8%	15.8%	3.0%	2.5%	5.28	5.29	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	93	393	74	61	10	100%	5.8	18.9%	15.6%	3.3%	2.7%	5.29	5.32	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	96	405	76	63	11	100%	6.0	18.7%	15.6%	3.1%	2.8%	5.36	5.43	-0.6
2031	30	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	94	397	73	63	12	100%	5.9	18.4%	15.9%	2.5%	3.0%	5.51	5.61	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	70	420	1775	332	281	49	100%	6.0	18.7%	15.8%	2.9%	2.7%	5.36	5.03	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	134	23	100%	6.0	18.7%	15.8%	2.9%	2.7%	5.36	5.03	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		106	88	423	1847	388	253	54	83%	4.0	21.0%	13.7%	7.3%	2.9%	4.85	4.66	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	42	200	874	184	120	25	83%	4.0	21.0%	13.7%	7.3%	2.9%	4.85	4.66	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trace Bright (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	18.0%	17.4%	2.4%	—	5.32	18.8%	2.8%	360	-0.16	—	—	—
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	87
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	87
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	83
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.83	22.0%	10.4%	160	+0.06	3.75	326	82
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	79
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	78
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	77
Jamison Hill R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.2%	15.6%	1.8%	.248	5.44	16.0%	6.4%	84	+0.72	4.72	326	77
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	76
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	75
Will Carter R 2018 · 5.17 FIP	25	SP	5.17	11.1%	18.0%	1.3%	.305	4.29	15.0%	1.2%	105	-0.88	3.15	335	75
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	75
Carlos Hernandez R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	74
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	74
Cole Percival R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.0%	14.3%	1.6%	.335	4.23	18.6%	8.6%	99	-0.10	3.58	327	74
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	74
Johnny Hellweg R 2015 · 5.96 FIP	26	SP	5.96	9.9%	19.0%	2.4%	.269	4.06	15.2%	2.0%	48	-1.90	2.98	109	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	109	18.6%	16.0%	1.03	5.37
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98