Trace Bright

P Norfolk Tides

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 199 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AABowie Baysox	27	27	112	4.18	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	—	K 19.9% · BB 13.5% · FIP 4.53
2025	24	AABAL	23	15	87	4.74	3.81	21.8%	15.4%	—	K 17.6% · BB 16.9% · FIP 4.32
2026	25	MIX2 levels	28	26	123	6.73	5.10	24.1%	10.5%	—	K 20.3% · BB 10.1% · FIP 5.53
2027PROJ	26	MLBBAL	1	1	8	5.70	5.70	19.5%	13.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	27	MLBBAL	5	5	29	5.57	5.59	19.7%	13.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ50% MLB	28	MLBBAL	7	7	40	5.53	5.57	19.8%	13.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJake Bockenstedt (age 24) · Nick Pasquale (age 26) · Nic Swanson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%19.5%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	1	10	35	9	4	0	25%	2.4	25.7%	11.4%	14.3%	0.0%	1.86	2.38	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	1	10	35	9	4	0	25%	2.4	25.7%	11.4%	14.3%	0.0%	1.86	2.48	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	100	434	147	56	9	81%	3.8	26.3%	14.7%	11.5%	2.8%	3.97	4.26	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	100	434	147	56	9	81%	3.8	33.9%	12.9%	21.0%	2.1%	3.97	3.01	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	27	112	489	120	60	13	100%	4.1	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	2.6%	4.18	4.53	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	27	112	489	120	60	13	100%	4.1	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	2.6%	4.18	4.53	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	27	27	112	489	120	60	13	100%	4.1	24.5%	12.3%	12.3%	2.7%	4.18	4.07	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	23	15	87	377	82	58	4	65%	3.8	17.6%	16.9%	0.7%	1.0%	4.74	4.32	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	23	15	87	377	82	58	4	65%	3.8	17.6%	16.9%	0.7%	1.0%	4.74	4.32	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	23	15	87	377	82	58	4	65%	3.8	21.8%	15.4%	6.4%	1.1%	4.74	3.81	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	123	552	133	58	26	93%	4.4	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	5.2%	6.73	5.53	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	123	552	133	58	26	93%	4.4	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	5.2%	6.73	5.53	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	123	552	133	58	26	93%	4.4	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	4.7%	6.73	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	1	1	8	34	7	5	1	100%	8.0	19.5%	13.8%	5.7%	3.9%	5.70	5.70	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	88	373	74	49	14	100%	5.9	19.7%	13.2%	6.5%	3.8%	5.57	5.59	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	79	335	66	43	13	100%	6.1	19.8%	13.0%	6.8%	3.9%	5.53	5.57	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	72	304	60	39	12	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.9%	6.7%	4.0%	5.57	5.64	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	65	273	53	36	11	100%	5.9	19.4%	13.1%	6.2%	4.1%	5.68	5.78	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	5	5	29	122	24	16	5	100%	5.8	19.7%	13.2%	6.5%	3.8%	5.57	5.59	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	40	169	33	22	7	100%	5.7	19.8%	13.0%	6.8%	3.9%	5.53	5.57	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	43	182	36	23	7	100%	6.1	19.6%	12.9%	6.7%	4.0%	5.57	5.64	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	44	186	36	24	8	100%	6.3	19.4%	13.1%	6.2%	4.1%	5.68	5.78	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		26	26	156	658	129	86	26	100%	6.0	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	4.0%	5.59	5.27	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	110	33	100%	6.0	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	4.0%	5.59	5.27	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		108	90	432	1887	399	254	57	83%	4.0	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	4.92	4.68	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	42	200	874	185	117	26	83%	4.0	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	4.92	4.68	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 92 IPFIP 5.65 → 6.09 (+0.44)K% 20.8% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.75%	—	×0.860	17.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×0.900	8.49%
HR / BF /BF	5.66%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.23%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.65 → 6.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 31 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.68 (+0.91)K% 35.2% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.16%	—	×0.810	28.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.06%	—	×1.100	15.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.88%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 87 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.32 (+0.52)K% 21.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.75%	—	×0.810	17.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.100	16.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷1.248	×1.200	1.02%

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 112 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.53 (+0.49)K% 24.5% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.54%	—	×0.810	19.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.27%	—	×1.100	13.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.66%	÷1.249	×1.200	2.55%

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 83 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.41 (+1.38)K% 35.0% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.99%	—	×0.770	26.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.22%	—	×1.150	15.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷0.912	×1.250	3.02%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 17 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.51 (+0.59)K% 28.2% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.17%	—	×0.810	22.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×1.100	12.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷1.208	×1.200	1.40%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 8 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.08 (+0.69)K% 17.2% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.24%	—	×0.740	12.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.180	16.28%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.128	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 126).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trace Bright (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.9%	—	5.60	19.7%	6.7%	240	-0.10	—	—	—
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	84
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	81
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	80
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	79
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	79
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	78
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	76
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	76
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	76
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	76
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	76
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	76
Ben Meyer R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	26	SP	5.58	19.4%	13.1%	4.5%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	387	76
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	76
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	75
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	75
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	75
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	75
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	74
Joaquín Benoit R 2003 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP-	5.64	18.8%	11.0%	5.0%	.252	3.90	22.0%	13.2%	270	-1.74	1.99	1,064	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	76	19.6%	13.2%	1.52	5.61
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*