Trace Bright
P
Norfolk Tides
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 199 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 122
ERA5.40
FIP5.40
K%18.0%
BB%17.3%
K-BB%0.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 25% | 2.4 | 25.7% | 11.4% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 2.38 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 25% | 2.4 | 25.7% | 11.4% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 2.48 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 100 | 434 | 147 | 56 | 9 | 81% | 3.8 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 4.39 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 100 | 434 | 147 | 56 | 9 | 81% | 3.8 | 33.9% | 12.9% | 21.0% | 2.1% | 3.97 | 3.01 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 27 | 27 | 112 | 489 | 120 | 60 | 13 | 100% | 4.1 | 19.9% | 13.5% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 4.18 | 4.30 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 27 | 27 | 112 | 489 | 120 | 60 | 13 | 100% | 4.1 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 23 | 15 | 87 | 377 | 82 | 58 | 4 | 65% | 3.8 | 17.6% | 16.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 4.74 | 4.22 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 23 | 15 | 87 | 377 | 82 | 58 | 4 | 65% | 3.8 | 21.8% | 15.4% | 6.4% | 1.1% | 4.74 | 3.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 17 | 16 | 74 | 331 | 82 | 42 | 13 | 94% | 4.4 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 6.54 | 5.42 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 49 | 47 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.0% | 17.3% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 5.40 | 5.40 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 17.3% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 5.40 | 5.40 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 139 | 605 | 131 | 89 | 19 | — | — | 21.7% | 14.8% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 6.01 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 1 | — | — | 18.0% | 17.3% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 5.40 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 55 | 49 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 16.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 5.28 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 56 | 46 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.1% | 15.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 5.23 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 54 | 44 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.2% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 5.24 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 51 | 43 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.0% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.31 | 5.38 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.7% | 16.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 5.28 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 37 | 31 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.1% | 15.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 5.23 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 42 | 35 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.2% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 5.24 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 43 | 35 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.31 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 32 | 32 | 190 | 804 | 153 | 128 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 5.27 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 161 | 134 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 5.27 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 97 | 80 | 383 | 1666 | 357 | 243 | 41 | 82% | 3.9 | 21.4% | 14.6% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 4.65 | 4.49 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 42 | 200 | 870 | 186 | 127 | 21 | 82% | 3.9 | 21.4% | 14.6% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 4.65 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trace Bright (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.40 | 18.0% | 17.3% | 2.3% | — | 5.26 | 19.0% | 3.0% | 206 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 87 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 23.5% | 17.5% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.91 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 160 | +0.18 | 3.93 | 323 | 83 |
| Trystan Vrieling R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.66 | 16.8% | 17.2% | 3.3% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 297 | 82 |
| Carlson Reed R 2024 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 79 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 79 |
| Bryce Conley R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | .227 | 4.60 | 17.4% | 5.6% | 142 | -0.73 | 4.60 | 529 | 78 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2024 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.93 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.3% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 75 |
| Will Carter R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 11.1% | 18.0% | 1.2% | .305 | 4.27 | 15.0% | 1.2% | 105 | -0.82 | 3.11 | 335 | 74 |
| Carlos Hernandez R 2023 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.34 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 1.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 123 | 74 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.61 | 13.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 3.15 | 25.1% | 15.5% | 106 | -2.46 | 2.74 | 178 | 74 |
| Casey Steward R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 74 |
| Noah Hall R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.47 | 17.4% | 18.3% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 201 | 74 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.83 | 15.4% | 15.6% | 1.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 151 | 74 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 73 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 73 |
| Johnny Hellweg R 2027 · 5.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.98 | 9.9% | 19.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 4.11 | 15.2% | 2.0% | 48 | -1.87 | 2.98 | 109 | 73 |
| Niko Mazza R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.41 | 22.0% | 15.9% | 2.1% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 165 | 73 |
| Michael Wagner R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.27 | 16.4% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 149 | 73 |
| Reid Johnston R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .256 | 5.86 | 17.2% | 2.4% | 31 | +0.96 | 3.72 | 234 | 73 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.21 | 12.0% | 14.9% | 2.3% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 367 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 68 | 18.8% | 16.2% | 0.96 | 5.29 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |