Trace Bright
P
Chesapeake Baysox
+0.1
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 199 lbs
AA
peak 0.8 · 2028
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.5%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%7.0%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2028
STUF4040
CTRL3030
CMD3535
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 4 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.86 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 26 | 21 | 100 | 434 | 147 | 56 | 9 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 4.24 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 27 | 27 | 112 | 489 | 120 | 60 | 13 | 19.9% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 4.18 | 4.51 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 23 | 15 | 87 | 377 | 82 | 58 | 4 | 17.6% | 16.9% | 1.0% | 4.74 | 4.33 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 3 | 3 | 12 | 57 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 21.3% | 21.2% | 2.1% | 8.49 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 78 | 64 | 10 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.4% | 5.15 | 5.15 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 108 | 462 | 93 | 75 | 11 | 20.2% | 16.2% | 2.3% | 5.51 | 5.15 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 86 | 65 | 11 | 19.8% | 14.9% | 2.5% | 5.05 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 90 | 64 | 11 | 20.0% | 14.4% | 2.5% | 4.99 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 107 | 450 | 90 | 63 | 12 | 20.0% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 4.97 | 4.98 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 88 | 62 | 12 | 19.9% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 4.99 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 84 | 60 | 11 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 5.04 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 80 | 59 | 11 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 5.15 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 76 | 57 | 11 | 19.2% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 5.18 | 5.23 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 378 | 71 | 55 | 11 | 18.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 5.27 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 67 | 53 | 11 | 18.6% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 5.37 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 61 | 51 | 11 | 18.2% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 5.48 | 5.56 | -0.4 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 62 | 46 | 10 | 19.8% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 5.45 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 83 | 67 | 320 | 1392 | 299 | 210 | 29 | 21.5% | 15.1% | 2.1% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 42 | 200 | 869 | 187 | 131 | 18 | 21.5% | 15.1% | 2.1% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trace Bright (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.15 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.4% | — | 5.00 | 19.9% | 5.5% | 316 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 90 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.62 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 4.95 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.33 | 4.62 | 147 | 87 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .285 | 4.26 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -1.07 | 4.07 | 530 | 85 |
| Carlos Tavera R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.28 | 18.5% | 14.8% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.06 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 15 | -1.22 | 4.06 | 249 | 84 |
| Deylen Miley R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.26 | 22.3% | 17.5% | 3.3% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 185 | 84 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .319 | 4.03 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 166 | -0.99 | 3.98 | 481 | 83 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 83 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 18.5% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .308 | 4.35 | 22.9% | 7.2% | 102 | -0.27 | 3.75 | 283 | 83 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 6.22 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 12 | +0.84 | 4.02 | 262 | 82 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 82 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 82 |
| Mike Franco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.74 | 17.2% | 12.9% | 2.7% | .251 | 4.33 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 98 | -0.41 | 3.10 | 322 | 82 |
| Carlos Hernandez R 2023 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 1.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 123 | 81 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .284 | 3.50 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 84 | -1.40 | 3.50 | 368 | 81 |
| Casey Anderson R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 185 | 81 |
| Kyle Funkhouser R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.06 | 19.9% | 14.8% | 1.4% | .361 | 4.39 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 86 | +0.33 | 3.28 | 387 | 80 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.93 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .286 | 5.22 | 16.8% | 4.4% | 61 | +0.29 | 4.24 | 367 | 80 |
| Bryce Conley R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.39 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 3.1% | .227 | 4.33 | 17.4% | 5.6% | 142 | -1.06 | 4.28 | 448 | 80 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 80 |
| Reid Johnston R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 204 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.