Clayton Beeter

P Washington Nationals

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	15	7	43	2.32	2.09	35.5%	12.8%	1.3	K 29.8% · BB 12.9% · FIP 2.60
2025	26	MIX4 levels	50	0	53	4.25	3.18	34.5%	17.9%	0.9	K 31.3% · BB 16.7% · FIP 3.34
2026	27	MIX3 levels	56	1	54	4.33	5.17	24.3%	13.6%	-0.4	K 22.5% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.94
2027PROJ	28	MLBWSH	35	0	37	4.67	4.79	27.4%	15.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ87% MLB	29	MLBWSH	27	0	28	4.80	4.91	26.5%	15.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ90% MLB	30	MLBWSH	20	0	21	4.94	5.07	25.5%	14.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo67

K%52

xwOBA vs31

Form6.46 ERA (proj 4.67) · K 18.6% (proj 27.4%) · BB 15.7% (proj 15.4%) ▼▼ last 90d · 15 IP through Oct 27

CompsShintaro Fujinami (age 29) · Derek Law (age 28) · Ryne Stanek (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.67

FIP4.79

K%27.4%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	52	213	78	22	5	96%	1.9	28.6%	11.7%	16.9%	3.1%	3.44	3.87	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	52	213	78	22	5	96%	1.9	36.6%	10.3%	26.3%	2.3%	3.44	2.62	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	25	23	77	348	129	46	11	92%	3.1	30.0%	14.5%	15.5%	3.7%	4.56	4.42	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	25	23	77	348	129	46	11	92%	3.1	37.1%	13.2%	23.9%	3.2%	4.56	3.40	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	132	573	165	75	18	96%	4.9	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	3.4%	3.62	4.58	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	132	573	165	75	18	96%	4.9	28.8%	13.1%	15.7%	3.1%	3.62	4.08	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	7	43	172	61	22	1	47%	2.8	29.8%	12.9%	17.0%	0.7%	2.32	2.60	+1.0
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	7	43	172	61	22	1	47%	2.8	29.8%	12.9%	17.0%	0.7%	2.32	2.60	+1.0
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	7	43	172	61	22	1	47%	2.8	35.5%	12.8%	22.7%	0.6%	2.32	2.09	+1.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	50	0	53	229	79	41	3	0%	1.1	31.3%	16.7%	14.6%	1.4%	4.25	3.34	+0.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	50	0	53	229	79	41	3	0%	1.1	31.3%	16.7%	14.6%	1.4%	4.25	3.34	+0.8
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	50	0	53	229	79	41	3	0%	1.1	34.5%	17.9%	16.6%	1.3%	4.25	3.18	+0.9
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	1	54	235	57	32	10	2%	1.0	22.5%	12.9%	9.6%	3.8%	4.33	4.94	-0.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	1	54	235	57	32	10	2%	1.0	22.5%	12.9%	9.6%	3.8%	4.33	4.94	-0.2
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	56	1	54	235	57	32	10	2%	1.0	24.3%	13.6%	10.6%	4.3%	4.33	5.17	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			79	0	77	328	85	46	11	0%	1.0	25.9%	14.0%	11.9%	3.4%	4.44	4.54	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	35	0	37	156	43	24	5	0%	1.1	27.4%	15.4%	12.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	30	0	32	134	36	20	4	0%	1.1	26.5%	15.0%	11.4%	3.2%	4.80	4.91	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	22	0	23	98	25	15	3	0%	1.1	25.5%	14.9%	10.6%	3.4%	4.94	5.07	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	27	0	28	118	31	18	4	0%	1.0	26.5%	15.0%	11.4%	3.2%	4.80	4.91	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	20	0	21	89	23	13	3	0%	1.1	25.5%	14.9%	10.6%	3.4%	4.94	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	0	125	533	138	77	18	0%	1.0	26.0%	14.4%	11.6%	3.3%	4.60	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	849	220	123	29	0%	1.0	26.0%	14.4%	11.6%	3.3%	4.60	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		201	84	411	1770	480	240	53	42%	2.0	27.1%	13.6%	13.5%	3.0%	3.81	4.16	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	41	200	862	234	117	26	42%	2.0	27.1%	13.6%	13.5%	3.0%	3.81	4.16	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 5 IPFIP 5.40 → 5.79 (+0.39)K% 36.4% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.860	31.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.73%	—	×0.900	20.45%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.40 → 5.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 24 IPFIP 2.34 → 2.54 (+0.20)K% 36.0% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.04%	—	×0.860	30.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.02%	—	×0.900	16.22%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.960	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.34 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 36 IPFIP 2.35 → 2.60 (+0.25)K% 34.7% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.69%	—	×0.860	29.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷1.045	×1.100	0.72%

Result: FIP 2.35 → 2.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 71 IPFIP 5.08 → 5.45 (+0.37)K% 28.1% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.08%	—	×0.860	24.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.88%	—	×0.900	12.49%
HR / BF /BF	4.73%	÷1.017	×1.100	5.12%

Result: FIP 5.08 → 5.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASomerset Patriots · 61 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.50 (+0.73)K% 29.7% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.69%	—	×0.810	24.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.11%	—	×1.100	13.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.17%	÷1.033	×1.200	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASomerset Patriots · 77 IPFIP 3.38 → 4.42 (+1.05)K% 37.1% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.07%	—	×0.810	30.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.22%	—	×1.100	14.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷1.032	×1.200	3.68%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Great Lakes Loons · 37 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.65 (+1.27)K% 36.4% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.42%	—	×0.770	28.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.93%	—	×1.150	11.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷0.930	×1.250	2.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AATulsa Drillers · 15 IPFIP 3.17 → 4.41 (+1.24)K% 37.1% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.10%	—	×0.810	30.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.29%	—	×1.100	12.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.935	×1.200	4.14%

Result: FIP 3.17 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Clayton Beeter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	27.4%	15.4%	3.1%	—	4.98	26.1%	11.1%	55	+0.19	—	—	—
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.49	22.0%	0.2%	51	+0.40	4.09	130	71
Derek Law R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	23.5%	13.0%	2.8%	.306	3.31	20.8%	12.2%	110	-0.99	2.49	520	68
Ryne Stanek R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	28	SW	4.14	27.2%	11.0%	3.5%	.262	3.39	28.2%	15.7%	123	-0.75	2.96	771	67
Trevor May R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	26.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.291	3.47	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.27	3.05	477	65
Yennier Cano R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	28	SU	4.46	23.2%	11.8%	3.3%	.325	3.19	23.4%	16.2%	191	-1.27	2.43	381	65
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	65
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	64
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	64
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	62
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	62
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	62
Parker Markel R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	28	SU	4.87	29.7%	16.5%	4.0%	.250	4.33	28.9%	11.6%	97	-0.54	3.18	266	61
José A. Váldez R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	28	SU	4.02	23.1%	16.2%	1.5%	.325	4.21	16.8%	6.2%	103	+0.19	4.02	328	61
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	61
David Lebron R 2021 · 5.56 FIP	27	SU	5.56	26.7%	14.7%	5.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	144	61
Tyler Kinley R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	28	SU	4.32	22.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.247	3.51	24.7%	15.9%	118	-0.81	1.58	602	61
Joe Harvey R 2019 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	24.9%	14.3%	4.8%	.258	6.09	26.7%	6.8%	17	+0.66	2.56	197	61
Steven Wilson R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	26.0%	11.9%	3.1%	.217	4.64	20.6%	10.8%	121	+0.52	3.64	331	61
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	61
Juan Minaya R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	22.9%	9.7%	2.8%	.318	4.35	21.5%	9.7%	118	+0.45	3.20	446	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	35	26.3%	15.2%	1.26	4.63
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*