Clayton Beeter — OGILVIE

Clayton Beeter P Washington Nationals

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.14

FIP4.26

K%26.7%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

SL+1.0 (51%)

FB (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	52	213	78	22	5	96%	1.9	28.6%	11.7%	16.9%	3.1%	3.44	3.87	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	52	213	78	22	5	96%	1.9	36.6%	10.3%	26.3%	2.3%	3.44	2.62	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	25	23	77	348	129	46	11	92%	3.1	30.0%	14.5%	15.5%	3.7%	4.56	4.42	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	25	23	77	348	129	46	11	92%	3.1	37.1%	13.2%	23.9%	3.2%	4.56	3.40	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	132	573	165	75	18	96%	4.9	23.6%	12.9%	10.8%	3.4%	3.62	4.62	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	132	573	165	75	18	96%	4.9	23.6%	12.9%	10.8%	3.4%	3.62	4.62	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	132	573	165	75	18	96%	4.9	28.8%	13.1%	15.7%	3.1%	3.62	4.08	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	7	43	172	61	22	1	47%	2.8	28.8%	12.9%	15.9%	0.7%	2.32	2.69	+1.0
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	7	43	172	61	22	1	47%	2.8	28.8%	12.9%	15.9%	0.7%	2.32	2.69	+1.0
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	7	43	172	61	22	1	47%	2.8	35.5%	12.8%	22.7%	0.6%	2.32	2.09	+1.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	50	0	53	229	79	41	3	0%	1.1	30.8%	16.7%	14.0%	1.4%	4.25	3.39	+0.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	50	0	53	229	79	41	3	0%	1.1	30.8%	16.7%	14.0%	1.4%	4.25	3.39	+0.7
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	50	0	53	229	79	41	3	0%	1.1	34.5%	17.9%	16.6%	1.3%	4.25	3.18	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			79	0	77	328	85	46	11	0%	1.0	25.9%	14.0%	11.9%	3.4%	4.44	4.54	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	53	1	51	220	51	27	9	2%	1.0	22.5%	12.9%	9.6%	3.8%	4.41	4.94	-0.2
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	53	1	51	220	51	27	9	2%	1.0	22.5%	12.9%	9.6%	3.8%	4.41	4.94	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	WSH	1	1	1	4	2	0	1	100%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	25.0%	9.00	12.60	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	WSH	2	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.69	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	WSH	50	0	48	209	47	27	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.9%	9.6%	3.8%	4.50	4.94	-0.2
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	WSH	50	0	48	209	47	27	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.9%	9.6%	3.8%	4.50	4.94	-0.2
ROS	27	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	6	3	1	0%	1.1	26.7%	15.2%	11.5%	2.7%	4.14	4.26	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	1.0	26.7%	15.2%	11.5%	2.7%	4.14	4.26	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	56	243	57	30	10	—	—	23.5%	12.6%	11.0%	4.0%	4.39	4.87	-0.2
FULL	27	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	53	225	57	30	10	—	—	25.3%	13.5%	11.8%	4.3%	4.63	5.02	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	WSH	140	0	147	621	167	91	19	0%	1.1	26.8%	14.6%	12.2%	3.1%	4.67	4.75	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	134	0	140	593	154	85	19	0%	1.0	25.9%	14.3%	11.6%	3.2%	4.77	4.87	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	126	0	132	558	139	80	19	0%	1.0	25.0%	14.3%	10.7%	3.4%	4.92	5.05	-0.7
2027	28	MLB CTX	WSH	133	0	140	591	159	86	18	0%	1.1	26.8%	14.6%	12.2%	3.1%	4.67	4.75	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	127	0	133	562	145	80	18	0%	1.0	25.9%	14.3%	11.6%	3.2%	4.77	4.87	-0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	119	0	125	528	132	75	18	0%	1.1	25.0%	14.3%	10.7%	3.4%	4.92	5.05	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		464	0	481	2034	528	292	66	0%	1.0	25.9%	14.4%	11.6%	3.2%	4.72	4.50	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	0	200	846	219	121	27	0%	1.0	25.9%	14.4%	11.6%	3.2%	4.72	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		198	84	408	1755	470	238	52	42%	2.1	26.8%	13.6%	13.2%	3.0%	3.82	4.18	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	41	200	861	231	117	25	42%	2.1	26.8%	13.6%	13.2%	3.0%	3.82	4.18	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Clayton Beeter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	31.0%	16.6%	2.6%	—	4.88	25.9%	11.5%	420	+0.49	—	—	—
Daniel Robert R 2022 · 4.20 FIP	27	SU	4.20	24.3%	16.3%	2.0%	.312	3.23	23.7%	14.6%	130	-0.97	2.32	186	71
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	70
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	70
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	70
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	69
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	69
Hunter Bigge R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	23.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.316	4.74	26.0%	14.8%	101	+0.72	3.44	229	68
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	68
Tyler Kinley R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	27	SU	3.36	27.2%	11.8%	1.9%	.331	4.14	23.5%	11.8%	159	+0.78	1.58	595	68
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	67
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	67
Joe Harvey R 2019 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	24.9%	14.3%	4.8%	.258	6.09	26.7%	6.8%	17	+0.66	2.56	197	67
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	67
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	67
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	67
Parker Markel R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	28	SU	4.87	29.7%	16.5%	4.0%	.250	4.33	28.9%	11.6%	97	-0.54	3.18	266	66
Cody Morris R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	23.1%	15.6%	3.7%	.203	3.97	22.5%	8.7%	38	-1.18	2.23	256	66
Ray Black R 2016 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	30.0%	24.6%	0.9%	.281	3.88	34.6%	23.4%	94	-0.27	2.95	150	66
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	66
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	140	27.2%	15.0%	1.19	4.65
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47