Steven Wilson

P Durham Bulls

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	52	0	47	5.59	5.56	22.0%	12.4%	-0.6	K 21.1% · BB 12.1% · FIP 5.37
2025	30	MIX2 levels	64	0	61	3.26	3.84	23.2%	8.0%	0.5	K 21.2% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.93
2026	31	MIX2 levels	20	1	21	4.22	4.32	22.2%	10.0%	—	K 17.6% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.89
2027PROJ	32	MLBTB	7	0	7	4.59	4.78	20.5%	9.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBTB	13	0	14	4.87	5.06	19.6%	10.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBTB	7	0	7	5.17	5.36	18.7%	10.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs60

K%43

FB Velo41

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Jose Manuel Lopez (age 32) · Mike Broadway (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.59

FIP4.78

K%20.5%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	23	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	2	0	3	21	3	3	2	0%	1.5	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	9.5%	18.00	8.93	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	2	0	3	21	3	3	2	0%	1.5	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	9.5%	18.00	12.77	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	64	258	85	26	7	0%	1.5	27.2%	10.7%	16.4%	3.3%	2.67	3.99	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	64	258	85	26	7	0%	1.5	32.9%	10.1%	22.9%	2.7%	2.67	3.08	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	42	166	71	14	7	0%	1.4	35.3%	9.4%	25.9%	4.2%	3.21	3.64	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	42	166	71	14	7	0%	1.4	42.8%	8.4%	34.3%	4.2%	3.21	2.89	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	55	221	57	20	8	2%	1.1	24.8%	9.3%	15.4%	3.2%	3.11	3.94	+0.4
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	1	55	221	57	20	8	2%	1.1	25.8%	9.0%	16.7%	3.6%	3.11	4.01	+0.4
2023	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	52	0	53	219	57	26	7	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.9%	14.2%	3.1%	3.91	4.12	+0.3
2023	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	52	0	53	219	57	26	7	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.9%	14.2%	3.2%	3.91	4.14	+0.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	47	218	48	27	10	0%	0.9	21.1%	12.1%	9.1%	4.6%	5.59	5.37	-0.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	47	218	48	27	10	0%	0.9	21.1%	12.1%	9.1%	4.6%	5.59	5.37	-0.4
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	47	218	48	27	10	0%	0.9	22.0%	12.4%	9.6%	4.6%	5.59	5.56	-0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	61	263	61	21	8	0%	0.9	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	2.9%	3.26	3.93	+0.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	61	263	61	21	8	0%	0.9	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	2.9%	3.26	3.93	+0.4
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	61	263	61	21	8	0%	0.9	23.2%	8.0%	15.2%	3.0%	3.26	3.84	+0.5
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	1	21	90	20	9	3	5%	1.1	17.6%	8.7%	8.9%	4.0%	4.22	4.89	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	1	21	90	20	9	3	5%	1.1	17.6%	8.7%	8.9%	4.0%	4.22	4.89	—
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	1	21	90	20	9	3	5%	1.1	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.22	4.32	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			201	1	196	837	195	86	29	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.3%	13.0%	3.5%	3.86	4.35	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	TB	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	3.2%	4.59	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TB	36	0	38	159	31	16	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.4%	9.2%	3.5%	4.87	5.06	-0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	86	16	9	3	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.9%	7.8%	3.8%	5.17	5.36	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	TB	13	0	14	59	12	6	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.4%	9.2%	3.5%	4.87	5.06	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	TB	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.9%	7.8%	3.8%	5.17	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		220	1	216	923	212	95	32	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	3.5%	3.96	4.38	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	1	200	853	196	88	30	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	3.5%	3.96	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		314	2	346	1456	361	149	53	1%	1.1	24.8%	10.2%	14.6%	3.6%	3.72	4.28	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		182	1	200	842	209	86	30	1%	1.1	24.8%	10.2%	14.6%	3.6%	3.72	4.28	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 19 IPFIP 4.58 → 4.89 (+0.32)K% 20.5% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.48%	—	×0.860	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.64%	—	×0.900	8.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.61%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.98%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.58 → 4.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 5 IPFIP 2.33 → 2.40 (+0.06)K% 45.5% → 39.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.45%	—	×0.860	39.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×0.900	4.09%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.320	×1.100	3.79%

Result: FIP 2.33 → 2.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 12 IPFIP 4.56 → 4.86 (+0.31)K% 25.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.45%	—	×0.860	21.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.73%	—	×0.900	11.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.016	×1.100	3.94%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 39 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.64 (+0.35)K% 40.1% → 35.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.13%	—	×0.880	35.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.92%	—	×1.050	9.36%
HR / BF /BF	4.46%	÷1.154	×1.100	4.25%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 131).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 35 IPFIP 4.44 → 5.12 (+0.67)K% 28.4% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.38%	—	×0.880	24.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.86%	—	×1.050	15.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷0.950	×1.100	3.91%

Result: FIP 4.44 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 29 IPFIP 1.26 → 2.47 (+1.22)K% 39.1% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.09%	—	×0.770	30.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.64%	—	×1.150	4.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.900	×1.250	2.53%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 1.26 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 3 IPFIP 8.93 → 12.04 (+3.11)K% 14.3% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.770	11.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.150	16.43%
HR / BF /BF	9.52%	÷0.839	×1.250	14.19%

Result: FIP 8.93 → 12.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	20.5%	9.9%	3.2%	—	5.17	19.3%	8.8%	58	+0.38	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	82
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	81
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	81
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	80
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	79
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	79
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	77
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	77
Santiago Casilla R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	32	SU	3.98	20.2%	6.6%	3.2%	.246	3.23	21.6%	13.7%	166	-0.75	2.76	647	77
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	76
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	76
Jim Henderson R 2015 · 5.27 FIP	32	SU	5.27	16.7%	11.9%	3.8%	.307	4.55	25.8%	16.8%	35	-0.72	1.86	167	75
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	75
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	75
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	74
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	74
Rafael Martín R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	20.5%	10.7%	3.7%	.265	3.96	21.3%	15.8%	110	-0.78	2.94	227	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	46	22.0%	10.9%	1.33	4.22
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*