Steven Wilson — OGILVIE

Steven Wilson P Durham Bulls

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.55

FIP4.77

K%21.5%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

FB+4.9 (33%)

SL+3.5 (58%)

CT (1%)

CH-6.7 (7%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	2	0	3	21	3	3	2	0%	1.5	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	9.5%	18.00	8.93	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	2	0	3	21	3	3	2	0%	1.5	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	9.5%	18.00	12.77	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	64	258	85	26	7	0%	1.5	27.2%	10.7%	16.4%	3.3%	2.67	3.99	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	64	258	85	26	7	0%	1.5	32.9%	10.1%	22.9%	2.7%	2.67	3.08	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	42	166	71	14	7	0%	1.4	35.3%	9.4%	25.9%	4.2%	3.21	3.64	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	42	166	71	14	7	0%	1.4	42.8%	8.4%	34.3%	4.2%	3.21	2.89	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	55	221	57	20	8	2%	1.1	24.8%	9.3%	15.4%	3.2%	3.11	3.94	+0.4
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	1	55	221	57	20	8	2%	1.1	25.8%	9.0%	16.7%	3.6%	3.11	4.01	+0.4
2023	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	52	0	53	219	57	26	7	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.9%	14.2%	3.1%	3.91	4.12	+0.3
2023	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	52	0	53	219	57	26	7	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.9%	14.2%	3.1%	3.91	4.12	+0.3
2023	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	52	0	53	219	57	26	7	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.9%	14.2%	3.2%	3.91	4.14	+0.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	47	218	48	27	10	0%	0.9	20.9%	12.1%	8.9%	4.6%	5.59	5.39	-0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	47	218	48	27	10	0%	0.9	20.9%	12.1%	8.9%	4.6%	5.59	5.39	-0.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	47	218	48	27	10	0%	0.9	22.0%	12.4%	9.6%	4.6%	5.59	5.56	-0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	61	263	61	21	8	0%	0.9	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	2.9%	3.26	3.93	+0.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	61	263	61	21	8	0%	0.9	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	2.9%	3.26	3.93	+0.4
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	61	263	61	21	8	0%	0.9	23.2%	8.0%	15.2%	3.0%	3.26	3.84	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			201	1	196	837	195	86	29	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.3%	13.0%	3.5%	3.86	4.35	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	17	1	19	76	19	8	2	6%	1.1	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	3.2%	1.93	4.38	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	17	1	19	76	19	8	2	6%	1.1	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	3.2%	1.93	4.38	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	ROK RAW	TB	2	0	2	7	3	1	0	0%	1.0	42.9%	14.3%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.29	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	TB	15	1	17	69	16	7	2	7%	1.1	23.2%	10.1%	13.0%	2.9%	2.16	4.02	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	TB	5	0	5	23	5	2	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.55	4.77	-0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	24	99	24	10	3	—	—	24.2%	10.5%	13.7%	2.8%	2.52	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TB	53	0	55	233	48	25	8	0%	1.0	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.5%	4.84	5.03	-0.3
2028	33	MLB MLE	TB	48	0	51	214	42	24	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.3%	8.5%	3.8%	5.12	5.31	-0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	TB	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.5%	4.84	5.03	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	TB	27	0	28	118	23	13	4	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.3%	8.5%	3.8%	5.12	5.31	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		247	1	245	1043	237	109	37	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.4%	12.2%	3.5%	4.08	4.43	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	1	200	852	194	89	30	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.4%	12.2%	3.5%	4.08	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		311	2	343	1442	359	148	51	1%	1.1	24.9%	10.3%	14.7%	3.6%	3.59	4.25	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		181	1	200	841	210	86	30	1%	1.1	24.9%	10.3%	14.7%	3.6%	3.59	4.25	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	21.5%	10.5%	3.2%	—	5.16	20.3%	9.2%	106	+0.39	—	—	—
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	82
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	81
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	81
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	81
Junichi Tazawa R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	16.0%	7.6%	3.5%	.270	4.81	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.16	2.94	227	80
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	80
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	79
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	78
Bryan Shaw R 2019 · 4.54 FIP	31	SU	4.54	18.6%	9.0%	3.4%	.268	4.45	20.7%	10.1%	136	-0.09	2.78	596	78
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	77
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	77
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	77
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	77
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	75
Blake Treinen R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	31	SU	4.98	22.2%	13.5%	3.7%	.302	2.60	27.3%	19.4%	98	-2.38	1.53	547	74
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	73
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	73
Alex Wilson R 2018 · 4.16 FIP	31	SU	4.16	17.6%	5.3%	3.4%	.232	5.06	19.4%	13.4%	62	+0.90	3.35	326	73
Pedro Beato R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.22	3.47	295	73
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	20.7%	10.9%	1.35	4.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86