Steven Wilson
P
FCL Rays
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
ROK
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION2 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.55
FIP4.78
K%21.6%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p4724.8%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p600.302
FB+4.9 (33%)
SL+3.5 (58%)
CT (1%)
CH-6.7 (7%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 18.00 | 8.93 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 18.00 | 12.77 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 64 | 258 | 85 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 16.4% | 3.6% | 2.67 | 4.13 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 64 | 258 | 85 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 32.9% | 10.1% | 22.9% | 2.7% | 2.67 | 3.08 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 42 | 166 | 71 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.3% | 9.4% | 25.9% | 3.7% | 3.21 | 3.36 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 42 | 166 | 71 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 42.8% | 8.4% | 34.3% | 4.2% | 3.21 | 2.89 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 1 | 55 | 221 | 57 | 20 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 15.4% | 3.5% | 3.11 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 1 | 55 | 221 | 57 | 20 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 9.0% | 16.7% | 3.6% | 3.11 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 52 | 0 | 53 | 219 | 57 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 3.91 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 52 | 0 | 53 | 219 | 57 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 3.91 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 47 | 218 | 48 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.2% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 5.59 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 47 | 218 | 48 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.0% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 5.59 | 5.56 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 61 | 263 | 61 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 3.26 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 61 | 263 | 61 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 3.26 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | ROK | FCL Rays | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TB | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | TB | — | — | 42 | 177 | 40 | 19 | 5 | — | — | 22.4% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | TB | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 21.5% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 43 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 5.03 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 22 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 244 | 1 | 241 | 1028 | 234 | 107 | 36 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.07 | 4.42 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 202 | 1 | 200 | 852 | 194 | 89 | 30 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.07 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 296 | 1 | 326 | 1373 | 348 | 143 | 50 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 3.6% | 3.67 | 4.28 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 1 | 200 | 841 | 214 | 88 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 3.6% | 3.67 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Steven Wilson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 3.2% | — | 5.16 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 106 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 81 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 78 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 77 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 76 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | .270 | 4.93 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.27 | 2.90 | 227 | 75 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 75 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 74 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .268 | 4.46 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 136 | +0.17 | 2.78 | 596 | 74 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 73 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 72 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 71 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.89 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 2.69 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.20 | 1.51 | 544 | 71 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 71 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 49 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 1.36 | 4.86 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |