Steven Wilson
P
Chicago White Sox
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA4.46
FIP4.64
xFIP5.13
SIERA4.39
K%22.0%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.4%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†5050
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p4724.8%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p600.302
FB+4.9 (33%)
SL+3.5 (58%)
CT (1%)
CH-6.7 (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 42 | 0 | 64 | 258 | 85 | 26 | 7 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 2.67 | 4.02 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 30 | 0 | 42 | 166 | 71 | 14 | 7 | 35.3% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 3.21 | 3.61 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 52 | 1 | 55 | 221 | 57 | 20 | 8 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 3.11 | 3.74 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 52 | 0 | 53 | 219 | 57 | 26 | 7 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 3.91 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 52 | 0 | 47 | 218 | 48 | 27 | 10 | 21.2% | 12.5% | 4.5% | 5.59 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 64 | 0 | 61 | 263 | 61 | 21 | 8 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 3.26 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 14 | — | 14 | 58 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.77 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 21.2% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 36 | 19 | 6 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 33 | 18 | 6 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 5.06 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 19.1% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.21 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 27 | 17 | 6 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 3.8% | 5.36 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 294 | 1 | 324 | 1366 | 345 | 142 | 49 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 3.69 | 4.26 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 1 | 200 | 842 | 213 | 88 | 30 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 3.69 | 4.26 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Steven Wilson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 3.3% | — | 5.01 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 125 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 81 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 80 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 76 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 75 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 75 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 74 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 74 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 74 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 73 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 73 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 73 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 72 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 72 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 72 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.