Yennier Cano
P
Baltimore Orioles
+0.6
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 245 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA3.80
FIP4.07
xFIP2.17
SIERA1.85
K%22.9%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%14.2%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p3723.5%
K%
p4321.1%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
SL+0.8 (21%)
FB+0.7 (48%)
SI (43%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 10 | 0 | 15 | 68 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 17.6% | 20.2% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 5.91 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 42 | 1 | 70 | 307 | 86 | 33 | 5 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 1.6% | 3.23 | 3.39 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 44 | 0 | 58 | 261 | 66 | 30 | 8 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 5.55 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 75 | 0 | 76 | 296 | 69 | 12 | 4 | 23.0% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 2.02 | 2.39 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 70 | 0 | 60 | 249 | 65 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 3.15 | 3.33 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 67 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 55 | 23 | 7 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 5.10 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 9 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | BAL | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 50 | 18 | 5 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 3.74 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 55 | 228 | 58 | 18 | 5 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.52 | 3.56 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 55 | 19 | 6 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.86 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | BAL | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 38 | MLB | BAL | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 317 | 1 | 344 | 1460 | 342 | 138 | 32 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 3.69 | 3.53 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 1 | 200 | 848 | 199 | 80 | 19 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 3.69 | 3.53 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yennier Cano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.97 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.00 | 24.3% | 15.6% | 149 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 73 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 72 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 72 |
| Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 72 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.88 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 3.28 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.60 | 2.80 | 284 | 72 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 71 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 70 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 70 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 70 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .291 | 5.41 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.42 | 2.93 | 176 | 69 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.42 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .240 | 3.32 | 33.4% | 25.7% | 97 | -0.10 | 1.69 | 468 | 69 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .246 | 4.56 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.71 | 1.82 | 119 | 69 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 68 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 68 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.94 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .244 | 2.97 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.03 | 1.43 | 240 | 68 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 68 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.23 | 2.56 | 144 | 68 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 67 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.02 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .263 | 3.46 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.44 | 2.58 | 277 | 67 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2022
Service 3.378 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $7M | +$0.8M | ||