Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 15 | 68 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.6% | 20.2% | -2.6% | 2.5% | 4.20 | 5.57 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 15 | 68 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.1% | 20.6% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 5.63 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 1 | 70 | 307 | 86 | 33 | 5 | 2% | 1.7 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 3.23 | 3.32 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 1 | 70 | 307 | 86 | 33 | 5 | 2% | 1.7 | 28.0% | 10.7% | 17.3% | 1.6% | 3.23 | 2.99 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 58 | 261 | 66 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 5.55 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 58 | 261 | 66 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 11.5% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 5.55 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 75 | 0 | 76 | 296 | 69 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 3.9% | 19.1% | 1.3% | 2.02 | 2.37 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 75 | 0 | 76 | 296 | 69 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 4.1% | 19.3% | 1.4% | 2.02 | 2.44 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 70 | 0 | 60 | 249 | 65 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 2.2% | 3.15 | 3.30 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 70 | 0 | 60 | 249 | 65 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 2.4% | 3.15 | 3.38 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 55 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 5.10 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 55 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 5.10 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 42 | 0 | 31 | 127 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 22.0% | 6.3% | 15.7% | 0.8% | 2.32 | 2.47 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 2.2% | 3.27 | 3.40 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 2.2% | 3.27 | 3.40 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 55 | 228 | 51 | 16 | 3 | — | — | 22.5% | 7.1% | 15.4% | 1.4% | 2.73 | 2.87 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 55 | 232 | 51 | 16 | 3 | — | — | 22.1% | 7.0% | 15.1% | 1.4% | 2.73 | 2.88 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 48 | 0 | 50 | 213 | 48 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 2.5% | 3.89 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 45 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 2.5% | 3.89 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 404 | 0 | 389 | 1637 | 369 | 137 | 38 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 3.90 | 3.53 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 208 | 0 | 200 | 842 | 190 | 70 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 3.90 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 350 | 1 | 370 | 1567 | 362 | 146 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 2.0% | 3.60 | 3.45 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 1 | 200 | 848 | 196 | 79 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 2.0% | 3.60 | 3.45 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yennier Cano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.02 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.34 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 138 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 73 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 73 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 72 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 72 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.59 | 2.82 | 284 | 71 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 71 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 71 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 71 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 70 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 70 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 69 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 69 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 69 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 69 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.66 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .246 | 4.50 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.84 | 1.86 | 119 | 69 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.62 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .224 | 7.57 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +3.95 | 1.86 | 238 | 69 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.61 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .240 | 3.37 | 33.4% | 25.7% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.74 | 468 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 1.06 | 4.08 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |