Tyler Kinley

P Detroit Tigers

Age 36 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	33	MLBCOL	67	64	6.19	4.54	25.3%	10.9%	0.0
2025	34	MLBATL	73	73	3.96	3.36	23.7%	9.4%	1.0
2026	35	MLBDET	64	57	3.45	4.84	20.7%	9.5%	-0.2
2027PROJ	36	MLBDET	46	48	4.47	4.56	23.2%	9.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ	37	MLBDET	24	25	4.76	4.96	22.1%	10.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ	38	MLBDET	10	11	5.14	5.39	21.0%	11.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs75

FB Velo48

K%40

Form1.89 ERA (proj 4.47) · K 13.5% (proj 23.2%) · BB 13.5% (proj 9.6%) ▼▼ last 90d · 19 IP through Oct 27

CompsJoe Nelson (age 34) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA4.47

FIP4.56

K%23.2%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p6227.1%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p750.288

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	47	188	41	11	1	3%	1.4	16.4%	7.1%	9.3%	0.9%	3.04	3.08	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	47	188	41	11	1	3%	1.4	21.8%	5.9%	16.0%	0.5%	3.04	2.34	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	267	63	28	4	0%	1.4	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	1.4%	4.53	3.67	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	60	267	63	28	4	0%	1.4	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	1.5%	4.53	3.27	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	53	227	72	21	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	10.3%	14.7%	2.6%	3.54	3.74	—
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	53	227	72	21	5	0%	1.1	31.7%	9.3%	22.5%	2.2%	3.54	2.80	—
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	51	229	69	26	4	0%	1.0	27.2%	11.8%	15.4%	1.9%	4.94	3.36	+0.7
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	51	229	69	26	4	0%	1.0	30.1%	11.4%	18.8%	1.7%	4.94	2.94	+1.0
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	65	278	65	41	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	14.9%	7.7%	2.3%	3.18	4.32	+0.2
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	65	278	65	41	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	14.7%	8.6%	2.2%	3.18	4.19	+0.3
2020	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	24	0	24	96	26	12	2	0%	1.0	27.1%	12.5%	14.6%	1.8%	5.32	3.41	+0.3
2020	29	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	24	0	24	96	26	12	2	0%	1.0	27.1%	12.5%	14.6%	2.1%	5.32	3.52	+0.3
2021	30	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	70	0	70	295	68	25	12	0%	1.0	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	3.6%	4.73	4.21	+0.3
2021	30	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	70	0	70	295	68	25	12	0%	1.0	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	4.1%	4.73	4.45	+0.1
2022	31	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	25	0	24	100	27	6	0	0%	1.0	27.0%	6.0%	21.0%	0.0%	0.75	1.58	+0.9
2022	31	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	25	0	24	100	27	6	0	0%	1.0	27.0%	6.0%	21.0%	0.0%	0.75	1.60	+0.9
2023	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	2	25	117	29	10	5	7%	0.9	22.4%	7.9%	14.5%	3.5%	7.20	4.13	+0.1
2023	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	2	25	117	29	10	5	7%	0.9	24.8%	8.5%	16.2%	4.3%	7.20	4.58	-0.0
2024	33	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	67	0	64	285	72	31	11	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.9%	14.4%	3.4%	6.19	4.22	+0.2
2024	33	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	67	0	64	285	72	31	11	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.9%	14.4%	3.4%	6.19	4.22	+0.2
2024	33	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	67	0	64	285	72	31	11	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.9%	14.4%	3.9%	6.19	4.54	+0.0
2025	34	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	73	0	73	308	73	29	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	1.9%	3.96	3.36	+1.0
2025	34	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	73	0	73	308	73	29	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	1.9%	3.96	3.36	+1.0
2025	34	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	73	0	73	308	73	29	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	1.9%	3.96	3.36	+1.0
2026	35	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	64	0	57	232	48	22	10	0%	0.9	20.7%	9.5%	11.2%	4.5%	3.45	5.02	-0.3
2026	35	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	64	0	57	232	48	22	10	0%	0.9	20.7%	9.5%	11.2%	4.5%	3.45	5.02	-0.3
2026	35	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	64	0	57	232	48	22	10	0%	0.9	20.7%	9.5%	11.2%	4.3%	3.45	4.84	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			406	0	389	1670	390	171	51	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.2%	13.1%	3.1%	4.56	4.12	+2.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	DET	46	0	48	203	47	20	7	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.3%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	DET	24	0	25	105	23	11	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	3.7%	4.76	4.96	-0.1
2029	38	MLB MLE	DET	11	0	11	48	10	5	2	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.0%	10.0%	4.2%	5.14	5.39	-0.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	DET	24	0	25	106	23	11	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	3.7%	4.76	4.96	-0.1
2029	38	MLB CTX	DET	10	0	11	46	10	5	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.0%	10.0%	4.2%	5.14	5.39	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		440	0	425	1823	423	187	57	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.3%	13.0%	3.1%	4.59	4.15	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		207	0	200	858	199	88	27	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.3%	13.0%	3.1%	4.59	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		596	3	613	2622	605	270	65	1%	1.0	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.5%	4.24	3.81	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		194	1	200	855	197	88	21	1%	1.0	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.5%	4.24	3.81	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 16 IPFIP 2.80 → 3.22 (+0.42)K% 33.3% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.880	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.28%	—	×1.050	12.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.100	×1.100	1.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 2.80 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 40 IPFIP 2.46 → 2.96 (+0.50)K% 32.6% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.56%	—	×0.880	28.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×1.050	12.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷0.952	×1.100	1.34%

Result: FIP 2.46 → 2.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 26 IPFIP 3.30 → 3.91 (+0.60)K% 27.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.98%	—	×0.810	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.70%	—	×1.100	13.97%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷1.185	×1.200	1.61%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 27 IPFIP 2.18 → 3.53 (+1.35)K% 37.6% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.62%	—	×0.770	28.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.95%	—	×1.150	5.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.97%	÷0.944	×1.250	3.93%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAJacksonville Suns · 50 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.42 (+0.38)K% 23.6% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.61%	—	×0.810	19.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.26%	—	×1.100	10.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.423	×1.200	1.17%

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 10 IPFIP 4.18 → 4.73 (+0.55)K% 23.5% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.880	20.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.69%	—	×1.050	16.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷0.919	×1.100	2.35%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 44 IPFIP 2.39 → 3.08 (+0.69)K% 21.3% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.35%	—	×0.770	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.18%	—	×1.150	7.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷0.819	×1.250	0.86%

Result: FIP 2.39 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Kinley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	23.2%	9.6%	3.3%	—	5.09	21.8%	11.2%	36	+0.53	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	67
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	67
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	66
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	64
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	62
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	62
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	61
Jay Jackson R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	36	SU	5.31	25.4%	7.9%	6.1%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	261	60
Daniel Bard R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	36	SU	3.62	26.3%	11.5%	2.3%	.337	3.64	24.6%	10.3%	110	+0.02	2.56	456	60
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	59
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	59
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	57
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	57
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	56
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	55
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	54
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	54
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	51
Pete Walker R 2005 · 4.79 FIP	36	SU	4.79	12.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.261	4.45	19.6%	11.6%	30	-0.34	4.45	327	50
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	46

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	47	23.2%	10.9%	1.22	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Boone Logan ('18)	2.2	44	24.3%	10.1%	1.12	4.50
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Ed Nunez ('82-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.3	54	24.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.37*