Tyler Kinley
P
Atlanta Braves
Age 35
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 22 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10797vR 88
ERA3.99
FIP3.82
K%25.3%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%15.7%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p7328.9%
K%
p6825.5%
xwOBA vs
p900.265
SL+4.2 (66%)
FB (17%)
CU (16%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 47 | 188 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 3% | 1.4 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 1.1% | 3.04 | 3.22 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 47 | 188 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 3% | 1.4 | 21.8% | 5.9% | 16.0% | 0.5% | 3.04 | 2.34 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 60 | 267 | 63 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 1.2% | 4.53 | 3.57 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 60 | 267 | 63 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 4.53 | 3.27 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 53 | 227 | 72 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 2.6% | 3.54 | 3.74 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 53 | 227 | 72 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.7% | 9.3% | 22.5% | 2.2% | 3.54 | 2.80 | — |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 69 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 2.0% | 4.94 | 3.39 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 69 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.1% | 11.4% | 18.8% | 1.7% | 4.94 | 2.94 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 65 | 278 | 65 | 41 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 7.7% | 2.2% | 3.18 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 65 | 278 | 65 | 41 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 14.7% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 3.18 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 24 | 0 | 24 | 96 | 26 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 1.6% | 5.32 | 3.27 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 24 | 0 | 24 | 96 | 26 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 2.1% | 5.32 | 3.52 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 70 | 0 | 70 | 295 | 68 | 25 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 3.94 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 70 | 0 | 70 | 295 | 68 | 25 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 4.1% | 4.73 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 25 | 0 | 24 | 100 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 6.0% | 21.0% | 0.0% | 0.75 | 1.58 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 25 | 0 | 24 | 100 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 6.0% | 21.0% | 0.0% | 0.75 | 1.60 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 2 | 25 | 117 | 29 | 10 | 5 | 7% | 0.9 | 22.4% | 7.9% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 7.20 | 3.87 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 2 | 25 | 117 | 29 | 10 | 5 | 7% | 0.9 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 4.3% | 7.20 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 67 | 0 | 64 | 285 | 72 | 31 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 10.9% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 6.19 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 67 | 0 | 64 | 285 | 72 | 31 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 10.9% | 14.4% | 3.9% | 6.19 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 73 | 0 | 73 | 308 | 73 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 1.9% | 3.96 | 3.36 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 73 | 0 | 73 | 308 | 73 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 1.9% | 3.96 | 3.36 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 38 | 0 | 34 | 137 | 35 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.5% | 8.8% | 16.8% | 4.4% | 3.48 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 0 | 22 | 95 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 9.6% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 3.99 | 3.82 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 9.6% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 3.99 | 3.82 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 56 | 232 | 59 | 21 | 9 | — | — | 25.4% | 9.1% | 16.4% | 3.8% | 3.68 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 56 | 237 | 59 | 21 | 9 | — | — | 24.9% | 8.9% | 16.0% | 3.7% | 3.68 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 51 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 4.78 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 35 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 4.2% | 5.15 | 5.40 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 4.78 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 4.2% | 5.15 | 5.40 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 525 | 0 | 518 | 2219 | 529 | 229 | 70 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.14 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 203 | 0 | 200 | 858 | 204 | 88 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 570 | 3 | 590 | 2527 | 592 | 260 | 57 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 2.2% | 4.27 | 3.66 | +12.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 1 | 200 | 857 | 201 | 88 | 19 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 2.2% | 4.27 | 3.66 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Kinley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 25.1% | 9.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.94 | 23.2% | 12.4% | 130 | +0.89 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 77 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 74 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 73 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.96 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 284 | 72 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 69 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 69 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 69 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 68 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 67 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 67 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 67 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.28 | 1.99 | 488 | 67 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 66 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 66 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.03 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.28 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.75 | 2.03 | 804 | 65 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.71 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 46 | -0.36 | 3.08 | 349 | 65 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 65 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 63 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.17 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.50 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.33 | 3.17 | 225 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 1.32 | 4.61 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |