Tyler Kinley
P
Atlanta Braves
+0.5
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.56
FIP4.17
xFIP4.22
SIERA3.91
K%24.0%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%14.3%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF6565
CTRL3535
CMD4545
K†6060
SL+4.2 (68%)
FB (16%)
CU (16%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 33 | 1 | 47 | 188 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 0.9% | 3.04 | 3.09 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | New Orleans Zephyrs | 44 | 0 | 60 | 267 | 63 | 28 | 4 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 1.5% | 4.53 | 3.70 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 50 | 0 | 53 | 227 | 72 | 21 | 5 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 3.54 | 3.72 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 53 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 69 | 26 | 4 | 27.2% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 4.94 | 3.38 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 66 | 0 | 65 | 278 | 65 | 41 | 6 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 2.1% | 3.18 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 24 | 0 | 24 | 96 | 26 | 12 | 2 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 1.9% | 5.32 | 3.45 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 70 | 0 | 70 | 295 | 68 | 25 | 12 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.14 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 25 | 0 | 24 | 100 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 27.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 0.75 | 1.58 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 27 | 2 | 25 | 117 | 29 | 10 | 5 | 22.4% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 7.20 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 67 | 0 | 64 | 285 | 72 | 31 | 11 | 25.3% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 6.19 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 73 | 0 | 73 | 308 | 73 | 29 | 6 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 3.96 | 3.36 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 9 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | ATL | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 52 | 20 | 6 | 25.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 56 | 232 | 58 | 22 | 6 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 3.51 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 54 | 22 | 6 | 24.3% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 23.4% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 541 | 3 | 564 | 2419 | 563 | 250 | 55 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 4.28 | 3.69 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 1 | 200 | 858 | 200 | 89 | 20 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 4.28 | 3.69 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Kinley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.09 | 25.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.36 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 146 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 77 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 74 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 74 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.97 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 284 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 72 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 69 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.04 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.25 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.79 | 2.03 | 804 | 68 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 68 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .246 | 3.43 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | -0.03 | 2.00 | 380 | 68 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 68 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 68 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.31 | 2.15 | 488 | 67 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 67 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.03 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.25 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.22 | 3.01 | 119 | 66 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.4% | .248 | 4.29 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.40 | 2.89 | 326 | 66 |
| Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.45 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 426 | 66 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.72 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 303 | 66 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 64 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.14 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 3.7% | .271 | 3.76 | 22.3% | 15.9% | 184 | -0.38 | 3.61 | 1,008 | 64 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.21 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.44 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.23 | 3.21 | 225 | 64 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.