Tyler Kinley — OGILVIE

Tyler Kinley P Detroit Tigers

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10193vR 85

ERA4.09

FIP3.93

K%23.7%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%13.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p6928.3%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p750.288

SL+4.2 (66%)

FB (17%)

SI (1%)

CU (16%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	47	188	41	11	1	3%	1.4	16.4%	7.1%	9.3%	0.9%	3.04	3.08	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	47	188	41	11	1	3%	1.4	21.8%	5.9%	16.0%	0.5%	3.04	2.34	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	267	63	28	4	0%	1.4	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	1.4%	4.53	3.67	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	60	267	63	28	4	0%	1.4	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	1.5%	4.53	3.27	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	53	227	72	21	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	10.3%	14.7%	2.6%	3.54	3.74	—
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	53	227	72	21	5	0%	1.1	31.7%	9.3%	22.5%	2.2%	3.54	2.80	—
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	51	229	69	26	4	0%	1.0	27.2%	11.8%	15.4%	1.9%	4.94	3.36	+0.7
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	51	229	69	26	4	0%	1.0	30.1%	11.4%	18.8%	1.7%	4.94	2.94	+1.0
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	65	278	65	41	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	14.9%	7.7%	2.3%	3.18	4.32	+0.2
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	65	278	65	41	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	14.7%	8.6%	2.2%	3.18	4.19	+0.3
2020	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	24	0	24	96	26	12	2	0%	1.0	27.1%	12.5%	14.6%	1.8%	5.32	3.41	+0.3
2020	29	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	24	0	24	96	26	12	2	0%	1.0	27.1%	12.5%	14.6%	2.1%	5.32	3.52	+0.3
2021	30	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	70	0	70	295	68	25	12	0%	1.0	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	3.6%	4.73	4.21	+0.3
2021	30	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	70	0	70	295	68	25	12	0%	1.0	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	4.1%	4.73	4.45	+0.1
2022	31	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	25	0	24	100	27	6	0	0%	1.0	27.0%	6.0%	21.0%	0.0%	0.75	1.58	+0.9
2022	31	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	25	0	24	100	27	6	0	0%	1.0	27.0%	6.0%	21.0%	0.0%	0.75	1.60	+0.9
2023	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	2	25	117	29	10	5	7%	0.9	22.4%	7.9%	14.5%	3.5%	7.20	4.13	+0.1
2023	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	2	25	117	29	10	5	7%	0.9	22.4%	7.9%	14.5%	3.5%	7.20	4.13	+0.1
2023	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	2	25	117	29	10	5	7%	0.9	24.8%	8.5%	16.2%	4.3%	7.20	4.58	-0.0
2024	33	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	67	0	64	285	72	31	11	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.9%	14.4%	3.4%	6.19	4.22	+0.2
2024	33	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	67	0	64	285	72	31	11	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.9%	14.4%	3.4%	6.19	4.22	+0.2
2024	33	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	67	0	64	285	72	31	11	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.9%	14.4%	3.9%	6.19	4.54	+0.0
2025	34	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	73	0	73	308	73	29	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	1.9%	3.96	3.36	+1.0
2025	34	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	73	0	73	308	73	29	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	1.9%	3.96	3.36	+1.0
2025	34	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	73	0	73	308	73	29	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	1.9%	3.96	3.36	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			400	0	382	1648	389	170	50	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.3%	13.3%	3.0%	4.62	4.10	+2.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	58	0	51	210	47	21	9	0%	0.9	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	4.5%	3.73	4.93	-0.2
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	58	0	51	210	47	21	9	0%	0.9	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	4.5%	3.73	4.93	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	MLB RAW	DET	58	0	51	210	47	21	9	0%	0.9	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	4.3%	3.73	4.83	-0.2
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	DET	58	0	51	210	47	21	9	0%	0.9	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	4.3%	3.73	4.83	-0.2
ROS	35	MLB MLE	DET	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.9%	13.7%	2.9%	4.09	3.93	+0.0
ROS	35	MLB CTX	DET	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.9%	13.7%	2.9%	4.09	3.93	+0.0
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	56	231	52	23	10	—	—	22.5%	10.0%	12.5%	4.2%	3.76	4.84	-0.2
FULL	35	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	56	235	52	23	10	—	—	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	4.1%	3.76	4.72	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	DET	47	0	50	209	48	22	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.5%	12.4%	3.5%	4.74	4.82	-0.2
2028	37	MLB MLE	DET	41	0	43	183	40	20	7	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.2%	10.7%	4.0%	5.03	5.22	-0.3
2027	36	MLB CTX	DET	48	0	50	211	48	22	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.5%	12.4%	3.5%	4.74	4.82	-0.2
2028	37	MLB CTX	DET	41	0	43	182	40	20	7	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.2%	10.7%	4.0%	5.03	5.22	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		493	0	480	2062	482	215	65	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	3.2%	4.66	4.18	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	0	200	859	201	90	27	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	3.2%	4.66	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		590	3	607	2600	604	269	64	1%	1.0	23.2%	10.3%	12.9%	2.4%	4.27	3.79	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		195	1	200	857	199	89	21	1%	1.0	23.2%	10.3%	12.9%	2.4%	4.27	3.79	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Kinley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	25.0%	9.9%	2.7%	—	5.01	22.4%	11.6%	93	+0.91	—	—	—
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	76
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	75
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	74
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	74
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	73
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	73
Jumbo Diaz R 2019 · 2.98 FIP	35	SU	2.98	25.0%	7.7%	1.8%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	284	73
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	73
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	72
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	72
Adam Ottavino R 2021 · 3.46 FIP	35	SU	3.46	25.7%	12.0%	1.9%	.299	3.14	27.7%	19.7%	183	-0.32	2.10	488	71
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	71
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	70
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	69
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	69
Joakim Soria R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	35	SU	3.52	28.4%	6.8%	3.6%	.246	3.45	25.1%	17.7%	60	-0.07	2.01	380	68
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	67
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.38 FIP	35	SU	4.38	18.3%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	67
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	50	23.4%	10.5%	1.29	4.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64