Juan Minaya
P
Altoona Curve
+0.2
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP4.54
SIERA3.71
K%23.1%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.5%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD5050
K†5555
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p5626.2%
K%
p6925.7%
xwOBA vs
p700.293
CH+0.7
SL-0.7
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | 35 | 0 | 55 | 229 | 59 | 21 | 2 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 2.80 | 3.19 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 45 | 0 | 62 | 270 | 53 | 22 | 3 | 18.5% | 8.0% | 1.6% | 3.75 | 3.43 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 53 | 0 | 63 | 263 | 66 | 25 | 7 | 24.4% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 3.59 | 3.69 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 71 | 0 | 70 | 303 | 85 | 34 | 7 | 27.0% | 11.4% | 2.1% | 3.60 | 3.42 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 46 | 0 | 62 | 275 | 68 | 26 | 8 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 3.79 | 3.92 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 46 | 0 | 69 | 302 | 80 | 35 | 7 | 25.0% | 11.8% | 2.3% | 2.87 | 3.78 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 41 | 1 | 58 | 268 | 53 | 30 | 8 | 16.6% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 6.17 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 34 | 0 | 37 | 172 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 19.9% | 12.5% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 28 | — | 28 | 117 | 28 | 12 | 3 | 23.6% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 26 | — | 26 | 109 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 371 | 1 | 476 | 2082 | 460 | 218 | 49 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 3.82 | 3.86 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 0 | 200 | 875 | 193 | 92 | 21 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 3.82 | 3.86 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Minaya (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.6% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.51 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 26 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 73 |
| Will Harris R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.44 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.15 | 315 | 72 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 72 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 70 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 70 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 70 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 69 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 69 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 68 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.04 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.25 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.79 | 2.03 | 804 | 68 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 68 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 68 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 67 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 66 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 66 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 66 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.14 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 212 | 66 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.41 | 19.2% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 239 | 66 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.