Juan Minaya — OGILVIE

Juan Minaya P Altoona Curve

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 91

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%23.4%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p5626.2%

p6925.7%

xwOBA vs

p700.293

CH+0.7

SL-0.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	55	229	59	21	2	0%	1.6	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	1.2%	2.80	3.20	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	55	229	59	21	2	0%	1.6	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	0.9%	2.80	2.57	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	62	270	53	22	3	0%	1.4	18.5%	8.0%	10.5%	1.6%	3.75	3.40	+0.9
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	62	270	53	22	3	0%	1.4	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	1.1%	3.75	3.08	+1.1
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	63	263	66	25	7	0%	1.2	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	2.6%	3.59	3.69	+0.6
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	63	263	66	25	7	0%	1.2	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	2.7%	3.59	3.64	+0.7
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	71	0	70	303	85	34	7	0%	1.0	27.0%	11.4%	15.6%	2.1%	3.60	3.40	+1.0
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	71	0	70	303	85	34	7	0%	1.0	28.1%	11.2%	16.8%	2.3%	3.60	3.43	+0.9
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	62	275	68	26	8	0%	1.3	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	2.7%	3.79	3.90	+0.5
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	62	275	68	26	8	0%	1.3	24.7%	9.5%	15.3%	2.9%	3.79	3.85	+0.5
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	69	302	80	35	7	0%	1.5	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.3%	2.87	3.75	+0.7
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	69	302	80	35	7	0%	1.5	26.5%	11.6%	14.9%	2.3%	2.87	3.62	+0.8
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	58	268	53	30	8	2%	1.4	16.6%	11.8%	4.8%	3.6%	6.17	5.19	-0.4
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	58	268	53	30	8	2%	1.4	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.0%	6.17	4.61	-0.0
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	37	172	41	20	4	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.7%	7.7%	2.4%	4.34	4.28	—
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	37	172	41	20	4	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.7%	7.7%	2.4%	4.34	4.28	—
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	37	172	41	20	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.6%	12.2%	2.3%	4.34	3.90	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			160	0	178	778	196	88	18	0%	1.1	25.2%	11.3%	13.9%	2.3%	3.69	3.70	+1.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	PIT	4	0	4	17	4	2	0	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	PIT	44	0	46	193	43	20	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.6%	11.8%	3.3%	4.57	4.72	-0.1
2028	37	MLB MLE	PIT	38	0	40	169	36	19	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	11.2%	10.0%	3.7%	4.90	5.12	-0.3
2027	36	MLB CTX	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	10.6%	11.8%	3.3%	4.57	4.72	—
2028	37	MLB CTX	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.2%	11.2%	10.0%	3.7%	4.90	5.12	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		160	0	178	778	196	88	18	0%	1.1	25.2%	11.3%	13.9%	2.3%	3.69	3.68	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	0	200	874	220	99	20	0%	1.1	25.2%	11.3%	13.9%	2.3%	3.69	3.68	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		371	1	476	2082	459	217	49	0%	1.3	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	2.3%	3.82	3.83	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	0	200	875	193	91	20	0%	1.3	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	2.3%	3.82	3.83	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Minaya (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	23.4%	10.0%	2.9%	—	4.91	21.8%	10.9%	86	+0.56	—	—	—
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	77
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	77
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	74
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	74
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	73
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	73
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	71
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	71
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	70
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	69
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	69
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	69
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.38 FIP	35	SU	4.38	18.3%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	68
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	68
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	67
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	67
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	67
Will Harris R 2020 · 4.31 FIP	35	SU	4.31	25.0%	10.7%	3.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	315	66
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	66
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	22.4%	10.5%	1.25	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84