Luis Garcia
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 248 lbs
AAA
Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 165 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110100vR 91
ERA3.98
FIP3.96
K%25.0%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%17.8%
ROS IP165
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+1.3 (49%)
CH+0.8 (5%)
SL+0.5 (8%)
CT (25%)
CU (13%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 6 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 17% | 1.8 | 38.3% | 8.5% | 29.8% | 2.1% | 1.64 | 2.11 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 6 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 17% | 1.8 | 38.3% | 8.5% | 29.8% | 2.1% | 1.64 | 2.10 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 19 | 10 | 69 | 290 | 70 | 33 | 4 | 53% | 3.6 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 2.48 | 4.33 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 19 | 10 | 69 | 290 | 70 | 33 | 4 | 53% | 3.6 | 24.1% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 1.4% | 2.48 | 3.26 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 109 | 441 | 168 | 50 | 9 | 75% | 4.5 | 28.9% | 13.1% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 2.98 | 3.85 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 109 | 441 | 168 | 50 | 9 | 75% | 4.5 | 38.1% | 11.3% | 26.8% | 2.0% | 2.98 | 2.47 | — |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 5 | 1 | 12 | 49 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 20% | 2.5 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 2.92 | 3.96 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 5 | 1 | 12 | 49 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 20% | 2.5 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 2.92 | 3.91 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 30 | 28 | 155 | 633 | 167 | 49 | 19 | 93% | 5.2 | 26.4% | 7.7% | 18.6% | 2.8% | 3.48 | 3.41 | +3.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 30 | 28 | 155 | 633 | 167 | 49 | 19 | 93% | 5.2 | 26.4% | 7.7% | 18.6% | 3.0% | 3.48 | 3.49 | +3.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 28 | 157 | 643 | 157 | 47 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 3.72 | 3.82 | +2.9 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 28 | 157 | 643 | 157 | 47 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 17.1% | 3.6% | 3.72 | 3.90 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 6 | 6 | 27 | 115 | 31 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 4.5 | 27.0% | 8.7% | 18.3% | 2.5% | 4.00 | 3.28 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 6 | 6 | 27 | 115 | 31 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 4.5 | 27.0% | 8.7% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 4.00 | 3.36 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 1.2 | 36.4% | 9.1% | 27.3% | 18.2% | 15.43 | 11.16 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 1.2 | 36.4% | 9.1% | 27.3% | 18.2% | 15.43 | 12.10 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 5 levels | 11 | 10 | 38 | 150 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 91% | 3.4 | 25.1% | 6.0% | 19.1% | 3.4% | 3.35 | 3.61 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 5 levels | 11 | 10 | 38 | 150 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 91% | 3.4 | 30.0% | 5.3% | 24.7% | 4.7% | 3.35 | 3.76 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 26 | 26 | 154 | 648 | 162 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.0% | 7.2% | 17.8% | 3.0% | 3.98 | 3.96 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 24 | 24 | 144 | 609 | 148 | 46 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 7.5% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 4.09 | 4.16 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 22 | 135 | 568 | 134 | 45 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 7.9% | 15.7% | 3.5% | 4.27 | 4.40 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 124 | 526 | 120 | 44 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.65 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 114 | 482 | 106 | 42 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 4.0% | 4.76 | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 92 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 4.3% | 5.04 | 5.23 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 93 | 394 | 79 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 4.6% | 5.36 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 148 | 46 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 7.5% | 16.8% | 3.3% | 4.14 | 4.21 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 134 | 45 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 7.9% | 15.7% | 3.6% | 4.33 | 4.46 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 119 | 43 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 3.8% | 4.56 | 4.71 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 106 | 42 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 4.1% | 4.83 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 92 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 5.11 | 5.30 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 79 | 38 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 4.8% | 5.44 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 190 | 184 | 1074 | 4486 | 1050 | 368 | 167 | 97% | 5.7 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 15.2% | 3.7% | 4.31 | 4.20 | +15.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 835 | 195 | 68 | 31 | 97% | 5.7 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 15.2% | 3.7% | 4.31 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 131 | 104 | 581 | 2379 | 603 | 222 | 69 | 79% | 4.4 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 3.35 | 3.74 | +11.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 36 | 200 | 819 | 208 | 76 | 24 | 79% | 4.4 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 3.35 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.96 | 25.0% | 7.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.39 | 23.6% | 15.7% | 403 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 72 |
| Stephen Fife R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.20 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.2% | .329 | 3.62 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.42 | 3.20 | 179 | 70 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.31 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .356 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.16 | 2.93 | 432 | 68 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 66 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.43 | 27.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 287 | 65 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 64 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.57 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.66 | 242 | 63 |
| Connor Schultz R 2024 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 62 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 61 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 61 |
| Mike Clevinger R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.30 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .275 | 4.34 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 246 | +0.04 | 2.28 | 1,227 | 60 |
| Cody Anderson R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 279 | 60 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 60 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 60 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2024 · 3.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.13 | 18.6% | 8.0% | 1.1% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 137 | 59 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 59 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 59 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 21.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.58 | 19.3% | 13.7% | 139 | -0.07 | 3.72 | 231 | 58 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.66 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 290 | 58 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | .283 | 4.47 | 16.9% | 12.4% | 240 | +0.47 | 3.73 | 550 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 124 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 1.43 | 4.50 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 7 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |