Luis Garcia
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 248 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.10
FIP4.16
xFIP4.30
SIERA3.78
K%24.1%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%15.7%
IP16
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
STUF6060
CTRL5050
CMD6060
K†6060
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p8631.0%
K%
p7627.0%
xwOBA vs
p480.314
FB+1.3 (49%)
CH+0.8 (5%)
SL+0.5 (8%)
CT (25%)
CU (13%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 6 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 18 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.64 | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 19 | 10 | 69 | 290 | 70 | 33 | 4 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 1.9% | 2.48 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 24 | 18 | 109 | 441 | 168 | 50 | 9 | 28.9% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 2.98 | 3.80 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 5 | 1 | 12 | 49 | 9 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.92 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 30 | 28 | 155 | 633 | 167 | 49 | 19 | 26.4% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 3.48 | 3.45 | +3.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 28 | 157 | 643 | 157 | 47 | 23 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 3.72 | 3.87 | +2.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 6 | 6 | 27 | 115 | 31 | 10 | 3 | 27.0% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 3.46 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 15.43 | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 11 | 10 | 38 | 150 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 25.1% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 3.35 | 3.53 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 14 | — | 14 | 61 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.04 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 23.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.17 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 131 | 104 | 581 | 2379 | 603 | 222 | 70 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 3.35 | 3.76 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 36 | 200 | 819 | 208 | 76 | 24 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 3.35 | 3.76 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.26 | 23.5% | 15.1% | 20 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 85 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 84 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 84 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 81 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 81 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 80 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 78 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 77 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.25 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.48 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.23 | 3.25 | 150 | 76 |
| Stephen Fife R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 3.65 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.55 | 3.10 | 179 | 76 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.05 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.05 | 227 | 76 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 76 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.50 | 24.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 177 | 76 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 158 | 75 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 75 |
| Mark Serrano R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.10 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.2% | .290 | 4.39 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.29 | 3.10 | 120 | 75 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.60 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .328 | 4.66 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.06 | 2.39 | 676 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.