Luis Garcia — OGILVIE

Luis Garcia P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 248 lbs AAA Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.99

FIP3.96

K%24.3%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%17.5%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†6060

FB+1.3 (49%)

CH+0.8 (5%)

SL+0.5 (8%)

CT (25%)

CU (13%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.0M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	6	1	11	47	18	4	1	17%	1.8	38.3%	8.5%	29.8%	2.1%	1.64	2.11	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	6	1	11	47	18	4	1	17%	1.8	38.3%	8.5%	29.8%	2.1%	1.64	2.10	—
2018	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	19	10	69	290	70	33	4	53%	3.6	17.9%	13.4%	4.4%	1.8%	2.48	4.30	—
2018	21	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	19	10	69	290	70	33	4	53%	3.6	24.1%	11.4%	12.8%	1.4%	2.48	3.26	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	109	441	168	50	9	75%	4.5	28.9%	13.1%	15.8%	2.7%	2.98	3.80	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	109	441	168	50	9	75%	4.5	38.1%	11.3%	26.8%	2.0%	2.98	2.47	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	5	1	12	49	9	5	1	20%	2.5	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	2.0%	2.92	3.96	+0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	5	1	12	49	9	5	1	20%	2.5	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	2.0%	2.92	3.91	+0.1
2021	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	30	28	155	633	167	49	19	93%	5.2	26.4%	7.7%	18.6%	3.1%	3.48	3.55	+2.6
2021	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	30	28	155	633	167	49	19	93%	5.2	26.4%	7.7%	18.6%	3.0%	3.48	3.49	+2.7
2022	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	28	28	157	643	157	47	23	100%	5.6	24.4%	7.3%	17.1%	3.7%	3.72	3.98	+1.7
2022	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	28	28	157	643	157	47	23	100%	5.6	24.4%	7.3%	17.1%	3.6%	3.72	3.90	+1.9
2023	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	6	6	27	115	31	10	3	100%	4.5	27.0%	8.7%	18.3%	2.7%	4.00	3.40	+0.5
2023	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	6	6	27	115	31	10	3	100%	4.5	27.0%	8.7%	18.3%	2.7%	4.00	3.40	+0.5
2023	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	6	6	27	115	31	10	3	100%	4.5	27.0%	8.7%	18.3%	2.6%	4.00	3.36	+0.5
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	2	11	4	1	2	100%	1.2	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	18.2%	15.43	11.16	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	2	11	4	1	2	100%	1.2	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	18.2%	15.43	11.16	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	2	11	4	1	2	100%	1.2	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	18.2%	15.43	12.10	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	5 levels	11	10	38	150	45	8	7	91%	3.4	23.7%	5.1%	18.6%	3.3%	3.35	3.54	+0.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	5 levels	11	10	38	150	45	8	7	91%	3.4	23.7%	5.1%	18.6%	3.3%	3.35	3.54	+0.6
2025	28	MIX RAW	5 levels	11	10	38	150	45	8	7	91%	3.4	30.0%	5.3%	24.7%	4.7%	3.35	3.76	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	65	360	1468	371	112	48	92%	5.1	25.3%	7.6%	17.6%	3.3%	3.60	3.71	+5.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	HOU	2	2	12	51	12	3	2	100%	6.0	24.3%	6.8%	17.5%	3.0%	3.99	3.96	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	HOU	24	24	144	609	144	43	20	100%	6.0	23.6%	7.1%	16.5%	3.2%	4.09	4.16	+1.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	22	22	135	568	130	42	20	100%	6.1	22.9%	7.4%	15.4%	3.5%	4.27	4.40	+0.8
2029	32	MLB MLE	HOU	21	21	124	526	116	41	20	100%	5.9	22.1%	7.8%	14.2%	3.7%	4.50	4.65	+0.4
2030	33	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	114	482	102	40	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	4.0%	4.76	4.93	-0.0
2031	34	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	104	439	89	39	19	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	4.3%	5.04	5.23	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	HOU	24	24	144	608	144	43	19	100%	6.0	23.6%	7.1%	16.5%	3.2%	4.04	4.11	+1.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	22	22	135	570	130	42	19	100%	6.1	22.9%	7.4%	15.4%	3.4%	4.22	4.35	+0.8
2029	32	MLB CTX	HOU	21	21	124	524	116	41	19	100%	5.9	22.1%	7.8%	14.2%	3.6%	4.44	4.59	+0.4
2030	33	MLB CTX	HOU	19	19	114	481	102	40	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	3.9%	4.70	4.87	-0.0
2031	34	MLB CTX	HOU	17	17	104	439	89	39	18	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	4.2%	4.98	5.17	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		175	169	981	4092	953	317	142	97%	5.6	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	3.5%	4.13	4.03	+10.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	834	194	65	29	97%	5.6	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	3.5%	4.13	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		131	104	581	2379	601	221	72	79%	4.4	25.3%	9.3%	16.0%	3.0%	3.35	3.81	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	36	200	819	207	76	25	79%	4.4	25.3%	9.3%	16.0%	3.0%	3.35	3.81	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.96	24.3%	6.8%	3.0%	—	4.39	22.9%	15.5%	403	+0.43	—	—	—
Ricky Nolasco R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	32	SP	3.22	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.41	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.19	3.22	425	73
Stephen Fife R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	29	SP	3.11	18.8%	8.1%	1.1%	.329	3.65	14.1%	8.3%	152	+0.54	3.11	179	70
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	432	68
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	66
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	64
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	63
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	63
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	62
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	62
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	355	62
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	61
Andy Ferguson R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SP	3.10	18.6%	8.0%	1.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	137	60
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	60
Trevor Cahill R 2017 · 5.13 FIP	29	SP-	5.13	22.8%	11.5%	4.5%	.321	4.36	21.3%	11.7%	251	-0.77	3.37	556	59
Nate Karns R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	27.1%	6.4%	5.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	287	59
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	59
Logan Verrett R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	29	SP-	3.90	20.1%	3.3%	3.8%	.283	4.48	16.9%	12.4%	240	+0.58	3.81	550	59
Bryan Evans R 2016 · 4.63 FIP	29	SP	4.63	21.0%	5.7%	4.7%	.280	4.47	19.3%	13.7%	139	-0.16	3.89	231	59
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	58
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	129	22.6%	7.6%	1.38	4.39
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47