Luis Garcia

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 248 lbs AAA Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

AAASPExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MLBHOU	6	6	27	4.00	3.36	27.0%	8.7%	0.7
2024	27	MIX2 levels	2	2	2	15.43	12.10	36.4%	9.1%	—	K 36.4% · BB 9.1% · FIP 11.16
2025	28	MIX5 levels	11	10	38	3.35	3.76	30.0%	5.3%	0.7	K 24.6% · BB 5.1% · FIP 3.47
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBHOU	2	2	15	3.95	4.01	23.9%	7.0%	0.2
2028PROJ	31	MLBHOU	22	22	130	4.07	4.19	23.2%	7.3%	1.8
2029PROJ	32	MLBHOU	19	19	112	4.30	4.45	22.4%	7.7%	1.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$21M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Control53Command57FB velo49

CompsJarrett Grube (age 33) · Austin Bibens-Dirkx (age 30) · Chris Bassitt (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA3.95

FIP4.01

K%23.9%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%17.0%

Proj IP154

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+0.2	$1M	-$20M
Totals		$21M		$1M	-$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	6	1	11	47	18	4	1	17%	1.8	38.3%	8.5%	29.8%	2.1%	1.64	2.11	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	6	1	11	47	18	4	1	17%	1.8	38.3%	8.5%	29.8%	2.1%	1.64	2.10	—
2018	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	19	10	69	290	70	33	4	53%	3.6	17.9%	13.4%	4.4%	1.8%	2.48	4.30	—
2018	21	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	19	10	69	290	70	33	4	53%	3.6	24.1%	11.4%	12.8%	1.4%	2.48	3.26	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	109	441	168	50	9	75%	4.5	28.9%	13.1%	15.8%	2.7%	2.98	3.80	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	109	441	168	50	9	75%	4.5	38.1%	11.3%	26.8%	2.0%	2.98	2.47	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	5	1	12	49	9	5	1	20%	2.5	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	2.0%	2.92	3.96	+0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	5	1	12	49	9	5	1	20%	2.5	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	2.0%	2.92	3.91	+0.1
2021	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	30	28	155	633	167	49	19	93%	5.2	26.4%	7.7%	18.6%	3.1%	3.48	3.55	+3.5
2021	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	30	28	155	633	167	49	19	93%	5.2	26.4%	7.7%	18.6%	3.0%	3.48	3.49	+3.6
2022	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	28	28	157	643	157	47	23	100%	5.6	24.4%	7.3%	17.1%	3.7%	3.72	3.98	+2.7
2022	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	28	28	157	643	157	47	23	100%	5.6	24.4%	7.3%	17.1%	3.6%	3.72	3.90	+2.8
2023	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	6	6	27	115	31	10	3	100%	4.5	27.0%	8.7%	18.3%	2.7%	4.00	3.40	+0.7
2023	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	6	6	27	115	31	10	3	100%	4.5	27.0%	8.7%	18.3%	2.6%	4.00	3.36	+0.7
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	2	11	4	1	2	100%	1.2	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	18.2%	15.43	11.16	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	2	11	4	1	2	100%	1.2	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	18.2%	15.43	11.16	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	2	11	4	1	2	100%	1.2	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	18.2%	15.43	12.10	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	5 levels	11	10	38	150	45	8	7	91%	3.4	24.6%	5.1%	19.4%	3.3%	3.35	3.47	+0.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	5 levels	11	10	38	150	45	8	7	91%	3.4	24.6%	5.1%	19.4%	3.3%	3.35	3.47	+0.9
2025	28	MIX RAW	5 levels	11	10	38	150	45	8	7	91%	3.4	30.0%	5.3%	24.7%	4.7%	3.35	3.76	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	65	360	1468	371	112	48	92%	5.1	25.3%	7.6%	17.6%	3.3%	3.60	3.71	+7.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	HOU	2	2	15	63	15	4	2	100%	7.5	23.9%	7.0%	17.0%	3.0%	3.95	4.01	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	22	22	130	547	127	40	18	100%	5.9	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	3.3%	4.12	4.24	+1.8
2029	32	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	112	475	106	37	17	100%	5.9	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	3.5%	4.35	4.50	+1.2
2030	33	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	97	410	88	33	16	100%	6.1	21.5%	8.2%	13.4%	3.8%	4.61	4.78	+0.7
2031	34	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	82	345	71	30	14	100%	5.8	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	4.1%	4.89	5.08	+0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	22	22	130	549	127	40	17	100%	5.9	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	3.2%	4.07	4.19	+1.8
2029	32	MLB CTX	HOU	19	19	112	473	106	36	16	100%	5.9	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	3.4%	4.30	4.45	+1.2
2030	33	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	97	410	88	33	15	100%	6.1	21.5%	8.2%	13.4%	3.7%	4.55	4.72	+0.7
2031	34	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	82	346	71	30	14	100%	5.9	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	4.0%	4.83	5.02	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	135	780	3244	763	252	110	96%	5.5	23.5%	7.8%	15.8%	3.4%	4.03	3.96	+13.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	831	196	65	28	96%	5.5	23.5%	7.8%	15.8%	3.4%	4.03	3.96	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		131	104	581	2379	602	221	72	79%	4.4	25.3%	9.3%	16.0%	3.0%	3.35	3.81	+11.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	36	200	819	207	76	25	79%	4.4	25.3%	9.3%	16.0%	3.0%	3.35	3.81	+2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 17 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.47 (+0.49)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.860	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×0.900	5.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.961	×1.100	3.27%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 7 IPFIP 5.34 → 6.38 (+1.04)K% 28.1% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.810	22.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.100	10.31%
HR / BF /BF	6.25%	÷1.057	×1.200	7.10%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 5.34 → 6.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fayetteville Woodpeckers · 66 IPFIP 2.34 → 3.64 (+1.29)K% 39.4% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.42%	—	×0.770	30.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.41%	—	×1.150	14.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.969	×1.250	2.35%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.34 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 43 IPFIP 2.59 → 4.06 (+1.47)K% 35.9% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.93%	—	×0.740	26.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.58%	—	×1.180	11.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷0.964	×1.300	3.23%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 69 IPFIP 3.26 → 4.30 (+1.04)K% 24.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.740	17.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.38%	—	×1.180	13.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.38%	÷0.973	×1.300	1.84%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKDSL Astros Blue · 11 IPFIP 2.11 → 3.88 (+1.77)K% 38.3% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.30%	—	×0.680	26.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.51%	—	×1.250	10.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.98%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.11 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.01	23.9%	7.0%	3.0%	—	4.48	22.4%	14.8%	339	+0.47	—	—	—
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	76
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	71
Chris Bassitt R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	30	SP	4.20	23.0%	7.7%	3.8%	.258	3.35	23.2%	16.9%	402	-0.85	2.92	1,596	70
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	68
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,170	68
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	68
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	67
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	67
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	67
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	66
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	65
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	65
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	65
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	215	65
Raynel Espinal R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	23.9%	10.5%	3.6%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	507	64
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	64
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	63
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	63
Mark Leiter Jr. R 2021 · 3.49 FIP	30	SP-	3.49	26.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.277	3.48	29.2%	21.0%	212	-0.01	2.53	827	63
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	117	23.6%	7.6%	1.31	4.04
Mike Fiers ('21)	5.8	128	20.5%	7.0%	1.44	4.07
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Matt Harvey ('21)	4.8	121	21.2%	6.7%	1.15	4.42
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Ed Halicki ('74-'80, 11 WAR*)	5.3	152	22.9%*	7.2%*	1.10*	4.18*
Sonny Siebert ('64-'75, 28 WAR*)	10.8	179	22.1%*	7.5%*	1.17*	3.86*