Mark Leiter Jr.
P
Athletics
Age 35
RHP
6'0" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION39 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA3.37
FIP3.31
xFIP4.30
SIERA3.77
K%26.0%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%17.9%
IP39
K†6060
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p3820.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.372
FB+0.9 (39%)
SI (26%)
CU (18%)
CT-1.3 (9%)
SL-2.4 (1%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 27 | 21 | 143 | 590 | 121 | 33 | 7 | 16.0% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 3.09 | 3.25 | +3.6 |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 23 | 17 | 104 | 424 | 94 | 30 | 9 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 1.6% | 3.39 | 3.47 | +2.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 34 | 16 | 121 | 519 | 122 | 35 | 23 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.77 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 43 | 0 | 57 | 267 | 61 | 22 | 10 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 5.08 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 25 | 19 | 115 | 472 | 145 | 31 | 14 | 26.5% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 3.77 | 3.41 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 41 | 10 | 90 | 376 | 105 | 29 | 14 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 4.32 | 3.89 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 69 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 77 | 24 | 7 | 28.6% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 3.50 | 3.21 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | New York Yankees | 60 | 0 | 58 | 256 | 86 | 21 | 8 | 33.6% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 2.90 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | New York Yankees | 60 | 0 | 49 | 223 | 54 | 18 | 5 | 24.7% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 4.74 | 3.17 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Athletics | 30 | 0 | 28 | 120 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 25.0% | 7.5% | 1.7% | 5.20 | 2.85 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | OAK | 11 | — | 11 | 48 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 26.0% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 3.37 | 3.31 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 39 | 168 | 43 | 13 | 3 | 25.3% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 4.67 | 2.99 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 4.04 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | OAK | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.23 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 412 | 83 | 827 | 3516 | 814 | 262 | 98 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 3.62 | +17.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 20 | 200 | 850 | 197 | 63 | 24 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 3.62 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mark Leiter Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.77 | 26.6% | 8.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.23 | 24.6% | 15.6% | 65 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 76 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 72 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 72 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 71 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 69 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.03 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.28 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.75 | 2.03 | 804 | 68 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.78 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .248 | 4.25 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.47 | 2.78 | 326 | 68 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 68 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 68 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.96 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 284 | 68 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 67 |
| Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.43 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 426 | 66 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.60 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 227 | 66 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.91 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.54 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.63 | 2.79 | 128 | 66 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 65 |
| Peter Moylan R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.10 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.82 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.72 | 3.10 | 174 | 65 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 65 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 65 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.05 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | .271 | 4.18 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 248 | +0.13 | 3.54 | 1,073 | 64 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2025 · 2.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.77 | 25.4% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 186 | 64 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.