David Festa
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 185 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.9 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.24
FIP4.19
K%26.2%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%17.9%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p6327.4%
K%
p5523.1%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
CH+2.0 (29%)
SL (27%)
SI (12%)
FB-4.6 (44%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 2.1 | 37.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 4.32 | 1.52 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 2.1 | 37.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 4.32 | 1.66 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 104 | 413 | 108 | 34 | 6 | 86% | 4.9 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 2.43 | 3.73 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 104 | 413 | 108 | 34 | 6 | 86% | 4.9 | 26.2% | 8.2% | 17.9% | 1.5% | 2.43 | 2.75 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 92 | 396 | 119 | 42 | 9 | 92% | 3.8 | 24.6% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 1.9% | 4.19 | 3.55 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 92 | 396 | 119 | 42 | 9 | 92% | 3.8 | 30.1% | 10.6% | 19.4% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 3.15 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 125 | 532 | 166 | 49 | 18 | 97% | 4.3 | 29.2% | 9.5% | 19.7% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 3.70 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 125 | 532 | 166 | 49 | 18 | 97% | 4.3 | 31.2% | 9.2% | 22.0% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 3.49 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 85 | 351 | 92 | 26 | 12 | 94% | 4.7 | 24.9% | 7.5% | 17.4% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 3.73 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 85 | 351 | 92 | 26 | 12 | 94% | 4.7 | 26.2% | 7.4% | 18.8% | 3.4% | 4.36 | 3.69 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 53 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.2% | 8.3% | 17.9% | 3.4% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 70 | 293 | 77 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.2% | 8.3% | 17.9% | 3.5% | 4.23 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 67 | 285 | 74 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.1% | 8.5% | 17.6% | 3.6% | 4.28 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 73 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.2% | 8.3% | 17.9% | 3.5% | 4.24 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 70 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.1% | 8.5% | 17.6% | 3.6% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 45 | 248 | 1055 | 274 | 88 | 38 | 96% | 5.3 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 17.6% | 3.6% | 4.67 | 3.97 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 36 | 200 | 852 | 221 | 71 | 31 | 96% | 5.3 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 17.6% | 3.6% | 4.67 | 3.97 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 96 | 85 | 414 | 1724 | 434 | 166 | 45 | 89% | 4.3 | 25.2% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 3.64 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 834 | 210 | 80 | 22 | 89% | 4.3 | 25.2% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Festa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 26.2% | 8.3% | 3.4% | — | 4.26 | 26.1% | 17.7% | 137 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Blake Wehunt R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 78 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 73 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 73 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.08 | 24.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 264 | 72 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2024 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 72 |
| Christian Scott R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .249 | 3.95 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 68 | -0.69 | 2.65 | 302 | 71 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 71 |
| Luke Weaver R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.32 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .346 | 4.34 | 20.7% | 13.8% | 225 | +0.02 | 2.26 | 1,022 | 71 |
| Emmet Sheehan R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 26.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 364 | 70 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 167 | 70 |
| Griffin Canning R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 70 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 69 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 69 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 69 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.95 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 287 | 68 |
| JT Brubaker R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.80 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .313 | 4.22 | 23.4% | 15.7% | 268 | +0.42 | 3.29 | 848 | 68 |
| Alex Meyer R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.14 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 1.6% | .299 | 4.04 | 25.5% | 12.7% | 91 | +0.90 | 3.14 | 230 | 68 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.15 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 3.5% | .306 | 4.38 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 292 | +0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 68 |
| Grant Kipp R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 4.3% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 325 | 67 |
| Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.48 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 4.1% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 259 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 26.2% | 8.4% | 1.35 | 4.25 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Adbert Alzolay ('23) | 3 | 70 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 3.84 |