David Festa
P
Minnesota Twins
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 185 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.57
FIP4.21
xFIP4.49
SIERA4.16
K%25.8%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%17.1%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p6327.4%
K%
p5523.1%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
CH+2.0 (29%)
SL (27%)
SI (12%)
FB-4.6 (44%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 4 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.32 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 21 | 18 | 104 | 413 | 108 | 34 | 6 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 2.43 | 3.66 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 24 | 22 | 92 | 396 | 119 | 42 | 9 | 24.6% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 4.19 | 3.70 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 29 | 28 | 125 | 532 | 166 | 49 | 18 | 29.2% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.48 | 3.76 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 18 | 17 | 85 | 351 | 92 | 26 | 12 | 24.9% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 3.76 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 17 | — | 17 | 72 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 25.6% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 61 | 21 | 8 | 25.7% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.43 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 60 | 21 | 8 | 25.6% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 58 | 20 | 8 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 55 | 20 | 8 | 24.6% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 52 | 19 | 8 | 24.0% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 48 | 19 | 8 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 45 | 18 | 8 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 4.78 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 41 | 18 | 7 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 4.91 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 38 | 17 | 7 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 5.05 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 34 | 17 | 7 | 20.5% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 5.21 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 96 | 85 | 414 | 1724 | 434 | 166 | 47 | 25.2% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.68 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 834 | 210 | 80 | 23 | 25.2% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.68 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Festa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 25.6% | 8.7% | 3.5% | — | 4.36 | 25.5% | 16.7% | 167 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 84 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 82 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 81 |
| Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.71 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | .252 | 3.57 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 108 | -0.14 | 2.57 | 323 | 81 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 81 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 80 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 80 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 79 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 79 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.99 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .289 | 3.80 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 66 | -0.19 | 3.11 | 166 | 79 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 4.5% | .281 | 5.60 | 15.5% | 4.3% | 32 | +1.07 | 2.03 | 164 | 79 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 79 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 79 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 78 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 78 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.73 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.09 | 2.62 | 304 | 78 |
| Peter Strzelecki R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 26.5% | 8.3% | 3.2% | .325 | 3.11 | 26.5% | 16.8% | 170 | -0.59 | 2.87 | 328 | 78 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 5.1% | .241 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 18.8% | 60 | -1.80 | 2.40 | 362 | 77 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 77 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.302 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $6M | +$1M | ||