David Festa

P Minnesota Twins

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 185 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.9 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	24	22	92	4.19	3.15	30.1%	10.6%	—	K 24.5% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.68
2024	24	MIX2 levels	29	28	125	4.48	3.49	31.2%	9.2%	2.9	K 28.9% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.67
2025	25	MIX2 levels	18	17	85	4.36	3.69	26.2%	7.4%	1.7	K 24.7% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.76
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	7	7	40	4.22	4.15	25.7%	7.7%	0.6
2028PROJ94% MLB	28	MLBMIN	11	11	64	4.24	4.24	25.6%	7.8%	0.9
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIN	10	10	62	4.34	4.40	25.0%	8.0%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.302First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$2M2029Arb-2$3M2030Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%55

FB Velo44

xwOBA vs27

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Todd Redmond (age 28) · Raynel Espinal (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.22

FIP4.15

K%25.7%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%18.1%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p6327.4%

p5523.1%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.302 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$3M	+$1M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.1M
2030	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	8	32	12	4	0	0%	2.1	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	4.32	1.52	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	8	32	12	4	0	0%	2.1	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	4.32	1.66	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	104	413	108	34	6	86%	4.9	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	1.9%	2.43	3.67	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	104	413	108	34	6	86%	4.9	26.2%	8.2%	17.9%	1.5%	2.43	2.75	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	92	396	119	42	9	92%	3.8	24.5%	11.2%	13.3%	2.2%	4.19	3.68	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	92	396	119	42	9	92%	3.8	30.1%	10.6%	19.4%	2.3%	4.19	3.15	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	125	532	166	49	18	97%	4.3	28.9%	8.7%	20.1%	3.5%	4.48	3.67	+2.6
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	125	532	166	49	18	97%	4.3	28.9%	8.7%	20.1%	3.5%	4.48	3.67	+2.6
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	125	532	166	49	18	97%	4.3	31.2%	9.2%	22.0%	3.4%	4.48	3.49	+2.9
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	85	351	92	26	12	94%	4.7	24.7%	7.2%	17.4%	3.3%	4.36	3.76	+1.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	85	351	92	26	12	94%	4.7	24.7%	7.2%	17.4%	3.3%	4.36	3.76	+1.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	85	351	92	26	12	94%	4.7	26.2%	7.4%	18.8%	3.4%	4.36	3.69	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	23	118	506	130	42	19	92%	4.7	25.7%	8.3%	17.4%	3.8%	5.12	4.06	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	7	7	40	169	43	13	6	100%	5.7	25.7%	7.7%	18.1%	3.4%	4.22	4.15	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	68	289	74	23	10	100%	6.2	25.6%	7.8%	17.8%	3.5%	4.23	4.23	+0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	65	276	69	22	10	100%	5.9	25.0%	8.0%	17.0%	3.7%	4.33	4.39	+0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	62	260	63	22	10	100%	6.2	24.3%	8.3%	16.0%	3.9%	4.49	4.60	+0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	64	270	69	21	10	100%	5.8	25.6%	7.8%	17.8%	3.5%	4.24	4.24	+0.9
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	62	262	66	21	10	100%	6.2	25.0%	8.0%	17.0%	3.7%	4.34	4.40	+0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	58	245	60	20	10	100%	5.8	24.3%	8.3%	16.0%	3.9%	4.50	4.61	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	54	302	1286	325	105	48	96%	5.4	25.3%	8.2%	17.1%	3.7%	4.66	4.04	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	36	200	851	215	69	32	96%	5.4	25.3%	8.2%	17.1%	3.7%	4.66	4.04	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		96	85	414	1724	431	159	47	89%	4.3	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.7%	3.87	3.65	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	834	209	77	23	89%	4.3	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.7%	3.87	3.65	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 31 IPFIP 2.03 → 2.22 (+0.20)K% 32.0% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.97%	—	×0.860	27.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.74%	—	×0.900	5.16%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.253	×1.100	1.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 2.03 → 2.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 60 IPFIP 3.38 → 3.78 (+0.40)K% 34.9% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.90%	—	×0.860	30.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×0.900	9.18%
HR / BF /BF	3.53%	÷1.039	×1.100	3.74%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 80 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.62 (+0.58)K% 30.4% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.41%	—	×0.810	24.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.65%	—	×1.100	10.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷1.231	×1.200	2.28%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 12 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.09 (+0.21)K% 27.8% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.860	23.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×0.900	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.009	×1.100	2.02%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 80 IPFIP 3.09 → 3.97 (+0.88)K% 23.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.770	17.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×1.150	9.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷0.948	×1.250	2.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.09 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 24 IPFIP 1.42 → 2.59 (+1.17)K% 37.5% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.740	27.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×1.180	8.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.48%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.42 → 2.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Festa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	25.7%	7.7%	3.4%	—	4.40	25.0%	17.0%	195	+0.25	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	77
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	73
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	72
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	70
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	70
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	69
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	69
Christian Scott R 2024 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP	4.68	23.9%	6.3%	5.1%	.249	3.48	27.9%	18.7%	124	-1.20	2.56	358	68
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	68
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	67
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	66
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	65
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	65
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	235	65
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	64
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	64
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	64
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	64
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	64
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	60	25.3%	8.1%	1.42	4.58
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*