David Festa — OGILVIE

David Festa P Minnesota Twins

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 185 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.5 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 100

ERA4.25

FIP4.20

K%25.8%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%17.9%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p6327.4%

p5523.1%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

CH+2.0 (29%)

SL (27%)

SI (12%)

FB-4.6 (44%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.302 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$6M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$7M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	8	32	12	4	0	0%	2.1	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	4.32	1.52	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	8	32	12	4	0	0%	2.1	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	4.32	1.66	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	104	413	108	34	6	86%	4.9	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	1.9%	2.43	3.67	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	104	413	108	34	6	86%	4.9	26.2%	8.2%	17.9%	1.5%	2.43	2.75	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	92	396	119	42	9	92%	3.8	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	2.2%	4.19	3.69	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	92	396	119	42	9	92%	3.8	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	2.2%	4.19	3.69	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	92	396	119	42	9	92%	3.8	30.1%	10.6%	19.4%	2.3%	4.19	3.15	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	125	532	166	49	18	97%	4.3	28.4%	8.7%	19.6%	3.5%	4.48	3.72	+1.8
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	125	532	166	49	18	97%	4.3	28.4%	8.7%	19.6%	3.5%	4.48	3.72	+1.8
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	125	532	166	49	18	97%	4.3	31.2%	9.2%	22.0%	3.4%	4.48	3.49	+2.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	85	351	92	26	12	94%	4.7	24.3%	7.2%	17.1%	3.3%	4.36	3.79	+1.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	85	351	92	26	12	94%	4.7	24.3%	7.2%	17.1%	3.3%	4.36	3.79	+1.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	85	351	92	26	12	94%	4.7	26.2%	7.4%	18.8%	3.4%	4.36	3.69	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	23	118	506	130	42	19	92%	4.7	25.7%	8.3%	17.4%	3.8%	5.12	4.06	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	MIN	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	25.8%	7.9%	17.9%	3.5%	4.25	4.20	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	114	483	125	38	17	100%	6.0	25.8%	8.0%	17.8%	3.5%	4.24	4.23	+0.9
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	114	483	124	39	17	100%	6.0	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	3.6%	4.29	4.32	+0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	109	461	116	38	17	100%	6.1	25.1%	8.3%	16.8%	3.8%	4.40	4.48	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	103	434	106	37	17	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.6%	15.8%	4.0%	4.57	4.69	+0.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	96	404	96	36	17	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.0%	14.7%	4.2%	4.78	4.92	-0.0
2032	32	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	89	374	85	35	17	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	4.4%	5.02	5.17	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	109	460	119	37	16	100%	6.1	25.8%	8.0%	17.8%	3.5%	4.25	4.24	+0.9
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	109	460	118	37	17	100%	6.1	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	3.6%	4.30	4.33	+0.7
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	17	17	104	439	110	37	17	100%	6.1	25.1%	8.3%	16.8%	3.8%	4.41	4.49	+0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	98	414	101	36	16	100%	6.1	24.4%	8.6%	15.8%	4.0%	4.58	4.70	+0.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	91	384	91	35	16	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.0%	14.7%	4.2%	4.79	4.93	-0.0
2032	32	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	84	355	81	33	16	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	4.5%	5.03	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	122	712	3015	749	256	117	98%	5.7	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	3.9%	4.63	4.20	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	847	210	72	33	98%	5.7	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	3.9%	4.63	4.20	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		96	85	414	1724	427	159	47	89%	4.3	24.8%	9.2%	15.5%	2.7%	3.87	3.67	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	834	206	77	23	89%	4.3	24.8%	9.2%	15.5%	2.7%	3.87	3.67	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Festa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	25.8%	7.9%	3.5%	—	4.34	25.5%	17.4%	338	+0.14	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	76
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	74
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	801	73
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	72
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	71
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	70
Luke Weaver R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	26	SP	4.56	23.3%	7.6%	4.5%	.346	4.41	20.7%	13.8%	225	-0.15	2.54	1,038	69
Spencer Howard R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	22.2%	9.3%	4.2%	.314	5.00	25.1%	16.4%	112	+0.31	2.33	484	68
JT Brubaker R 2020 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	23.4%	8.3%	3.2%	.313	4.37	23.4%	15.7%	268	+0.46	3.29	862	68
Thomas Hatch R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	22.6%	7.3%	3.7%	.276	4.23	19.3%	11.4%	206	+0.06	3.18	878	68
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	68
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	68
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	67
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.44	15.8%	9.4%	113	+1.68	2.78	181	67
J.P. France R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	26	SP-	4.04	27.6%	11.3%	3.4%	.306	4.39	21.0%	11.4%	292	+0.35	4.04	577	67
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	67
Alex Meyer R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	26	SP-	3.10	26.2%	10.9%	1.5%	.299	3.99	25.5%	12.7%	91	+0.89	3.10	230	67
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	66
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	66
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	99	24.8%	8.5%	1.48	4.50
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.6	88	24.4%	7.4%	1.65	4.58
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70