Christian Scott
P
New York Mets
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 94
ERA3.83
FIP3.93
K%24.9%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%17.3%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p5125.4%
K%
p8127.9%
xwOBA vs
p360.328
FB+1.4 (53%)
SL-1.2 (37%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 3.48 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 3.43 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 9 | 59 | 261 | 77 | 22 | 2 | 50% | 3.3 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 1.1% | 4.45 | 3.09 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 9 | 59 | 261 | 77 | 22 | 2 | 50% | 3.3 | 29.5% | 8.4% | 21.1% | 0.8% | 4.45 | 2.04 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 88 | 335 | 107 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 4.6 | 25.6% | 4.1% | 21.5% | 2.2% | 2.57 | 2.65 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 88 | 335 | 107 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 4.6 | 31.9% | 3.6% | 28.4% | 1.5% | 2.57 | 1.81 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 90 | 361 | 94 | 24 | 18 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 17.4% | 5.0% | 3.71 | 4.64 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 90 | 361 | 94 | 24 | 18 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.0% | 6.6% | 19.4% | 5.0% | 3.71 | 4.42 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 15 | 15 | 68 | 291 | 82 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 4.5 | 27.5% | 9.7% | 17.8% | 3.5% | 3.59 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 38 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 7.7% | 17.3% | 3.6% | 3.83 | 3.93 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 38 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 7.7% | 17.3% | 3.6% | 3.83 | 3.93 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 104 | 443 | 120 | 40 | 15 | — | — | 27.1% | 9.0% | 18.1% | 3.5% | 3.68 | 3.94 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 90 | 380 | 120 | 40 | 15 | — | — | 31.6% | 10.4% | 21.1% | 4.1% | 4.23 | 3.99 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 73 | 309 | 76 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 16.0% | 3.5% | 4.34 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 70 | 295 | 70 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 3.7% | 4.48 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 66 | 277 | 64 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 3.9% | 4.66 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 58 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 4.1% | 4.87 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 71 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 16.0% | 3.5% | 4.34 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 67 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 3.7% | 4.47 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 61 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 3.9% | 4.65 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 55 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 4.1% | 4.86 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 72 | 394 | 1664 | 397 | 145 | 61 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 4.31 | 4.21 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 846 | 202 | 74 | 31 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 4.31 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 73 | 61 | 307 | 1259 | 312 | 93 | 38 | 84% | 4.2 | 24.8% | 7.4% | 17.4% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 3.62 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 40 | 200 | 821 | 203 | 61 | 25 | 84% | 4.2 | 24.8% | 7.4% | 17.4% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 3.62 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Scott (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.0% | 6.4% | 3.6% | — | 4.58 | 23.9% | 15.2% | 208 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 77 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 74 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 74 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 74 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 73 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 73 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 73 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 73 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 73 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 73 |
| Brandon White R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.08 | 24.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 264 | 72 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 71 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 167 | 70 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.40 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 4.5% | .325 | 4.40 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 107 | -1.00 | 4.00 | 464 | 69 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 69 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 68 |
| Nathan Wiles R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 399 | 68 |
| Markus Solbach R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 67 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 67 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.82 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .265 | 5.66 | 17.5% | 5.3% | 119 | +1.84 | 3.75 | 299 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 69 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.51 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |