Christian Scott
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.6
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.47
FIP4.41
xFIP4.71
SIERA4.48
K%23.6%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%16.0%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p3419.8%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
FB+1.4 (53%)
SL-1.2 (37%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 18 | 9 | 59 | 261 | 77 | 22 | 2 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 1.0% | 4.45 | 3.05 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 19 | 19 | 88 | 335 | 107 | 12 | 5 | 25.6% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 2.57 | 2.56 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 18 | 18 | 90 | 361 | 94 | 24 | 18 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.71 | 4.74 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 3 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 25.8% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.27 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 85 | 28 | 14 | 22.7% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 4.47 | 4.55 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 102 | 433 | 102 | 30 | 17 | 23.6% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 4.58 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 85 | 29 | 14 | 22.6% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 87 | 369 | 82 | 28 | 13 | 22.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 77 | 28 | 13 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 4.61 | 4.67 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 72 | 27 | 13 | 21.0% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 74 | 24 | 13 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 69 | 24 | 12 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 4.70 | 4.74 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 63 | 23 | 12 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 57 | 22 | 12 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 4.94 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 52 | 22 | 11 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 5.09 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 49 | 253 | 1026 | 247 | 67 | 31 | 24.1% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 3.56 | 3.57 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 39 | 200 | 812 | 196 | 53 | 25 | 24.1% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 3.56 | 3.57 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Scott (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 22.7% | 7.6% | 3.7% | — | 4.61 | 22.1% | 14.4% | 262 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 90 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 83 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 82 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 82 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 81 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 81 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 81 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 81 |
| Tyler Duffey R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 21.1% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .265 | 2.81 | 30.4% | 22.3% | 158 | -1.08 | 2.34 | 803 | 81 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.69 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .284 | 4.86 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.17 | 3.49 | 1,080 | 80 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 79 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 79 |
| Luis Cessa R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.54 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .272 | 4.05 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 167 | -0.49 | 3.15 | 891 | 79 |
| Jason Forjet R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.48 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 197 | 79 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 78 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 78 |
| Tristan Beck R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.62 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .271 | 3.66 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 118 | -0.96 | 3.47 | 442 | 78 |
| Michael Lorenzen R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .266 | 3.90 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 160 | +0.47 | 3.19 | 1,070 | 78 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 78 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.6M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.4M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $10M | +$4M | ||