Christian Scott

P New York Mets

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX3 levels	19	19	88	2.57	1.81	31.9%	3.6%	—	K 25.6% · BB 4.1% · FIP 2.56
2024	25	MIX2 levels	18	18	90	3.71	4.42	26.0%	6.6%	1.0	K 23.9% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.68
2026	27	MIX2 levels	26	26	124	4.00	3.42	28.4%	9.2%	3.0	K 27.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.48
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYM	15	15	89	4.00	4.08	25.8%	8.8%	1.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBNYM	13	13	80	4.15	4.24	25.2%	9.0%	1.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBNYM	12	12	71	4.33	4.45	24.5%	9.3%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.530First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$2M2031Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%83

xwOBA vs65

FB Velo64

Form4.11 ERA (proj 4.00) · K 33.9% (proj 25.8%) · BB 4.8% (proj 8.8%) ▲▲ last 60d · 15 IP through Oct 27

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA4.00

FIP4.08

K%25.8%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%17.0%

Proj IP89

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p8328.3%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.530 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$11M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$25M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	3	0	3	11	1	1	0	0%	1.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.48	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	3	0	3	11	1	1	0	0%	1.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.43	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	9	59	261	77	22	2	50%	3.3	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	1.0%	4.45	3.05	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	9	59	261	77	22	2	50%	3.3	29.5%	8.4%	21.1%	0.8%	4.45	2.04	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	88	335	107	12	5	100%	4.6	25.6%	4.1%	21.5%	2.0%	2.57	2.56	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	88	335	107	12	5	100%	4.6	31.9%	3.6%	28.4%	1.5%	2.57	1.81	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	90	361	94	24	18	100%	5.0	23.9%	6.3%	17.6%	5.1%	3.71	4.68	+0.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	90	361	94	24	18	100%	5.0	23.9%	6.3%	17.6%	5.1%	3.71	4.68	+0.7
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	90	361	94	24	18	100%	5.0	26.0%	6.6%	19.4%	5.0%	3.71	4.42	+1.0
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	124	532	151	49	15	100%	4.8	27.9%	9.2%	18.8%	2.9%	4.00	3.48	+2.9
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	124	532	151	49	15	100%	4.8	27.9%	9.2%	18.8%	2.9%	4.00	3.48	+2.9
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	124	532	151	49	15	100%	4.8	28.4%	9.2%	19.2%	2.8%	4.00	3.42	+3.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	32	157	671	173	59	20	100%	4.9	25.8%	8.8%	17.0%	3.0%	4.06	3.68	+3.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	NYM	15	15	89	376	97	33	11	100%	5.9	25.8%	8.8%	17.0%	3.0%	4.00	4.08	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	84	355	89	32	11	100%	6.0	25.2%	9.0%	16.2%	3.2%	4.15	4.24	+1.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	74	314	77	29	11	100%	6.2	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	3.4%	4.33	4.45	+0.8
2030	31	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	63	266	63	26	10	100%	5.7	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.6%	4.54	4.68	+0.5
2031	32	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	63	266	67	25	10	100%	5.7	25.0%	9.3%	15.7%	3.9%	4.62	4.67	+0.5
2032	33	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	49	207	50	20	9	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	4.1%	4.82	4.95	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	80	338	85	30	11	100%	6.2	25.2%	9.0%	16.2%	3.2%	4.15	4.24	+1.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	71	300	74	28	10	100%	5.9	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	3.4%	4.33	4.45	+0.8
2030	31	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	60	253	60	24	9	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.6%	4.54	4.68	+0.5
2031	32	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	60	253	63	23	10	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.3%	15.7%	3.9%	4.61	4.66	+0.5
2032	33	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	47	198	48	19	8	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	4.1%	4.81	4.94	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	474	2009	502	184	68	100%	5.6	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	3.4%	4.32	4.00	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	847	212	78	29	100%	5.6	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	3.4%	4.32	4.00	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		84	72	363	1500	379	112	43	86%	4.3	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	2.9%	3.65	3.49	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	40	200	827	209	62	24	86%	4.3	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	2.9%	3.65	3.49	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 14 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.49 (+0.59)K% 29.3% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.31%	—	×0.860	25.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×0.900	3.10%
HR / BF /BF	5.17%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.69%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 42 IPFIP 4.54 → 4.98 (+0.43)K% 33.5% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.54%	—	×0.860	28.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×0.900	6.59%
HR / BF /BF	6.10%	÷1.059	×1.100	6.33%

Result: FIP 4.54 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 62 IPFIP 1.93 → 2.85 (+0.92)K% 32.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.77%	—	×0.810	26.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.40%	—	×1.100	3.74%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷0.925	×1.200	2.76%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 1.93 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 24 IPFIP 1.13 → 1.80 (+0.67)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.770	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.44%	—	×1.150	5.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.054	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 1.13 → 1.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 37 IPFIP 2.03 → 3.13 (+1.10)K% 31.5% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.52%	—	×0.740	23.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.180	8.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.21%	÷0.949	×1.300	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.03 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 21 IPFIP 2.22 → 2.92 (+0.70)K% 26.0% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.04%	—	×0.770	20.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×1.150	11.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.22 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Scott (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.08	25.8%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.44	24.6%	15.3%	221	+0.36	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	72
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	71
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	71
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	69
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	69
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	68
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	68
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	67
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	67
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	67
Félix Peña R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SP	3.74	22.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.294	4.58	21.9%	13.5%	191	+0.84	2.79	615	67
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	66
Osvaldo Bido R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	28	SP-	3.86	23.8%	8.5%	3.1%	.268	5.48	18.0%	8.0%	116	+1.62	3.67	732	66
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	66
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	65
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	65
Joe Ross R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	28	SP	3.95	23.7%	6.5%	3.7%	.266	3.90	19.6%	10.7%	86	-0.05	3.19	812	65
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	65
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	65
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	72	25.1%	9.1%	1.29	4.28
Dave Tobik ('78-'85, 4 WAR*)	2.0	66	24.5%*	9.3%*	1.33*	3.87*
Roy Lee Jackson ('77-'86, 5 WAR*)	2.8	70	21.9%*	8.6%*	1.09*	3.99*
Joe Beckwith ('79-'86, 3 WAR*)	2.1	70	24.9%*	8.2%*	1.13*	3.96*
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
David Phelps ('22)	3.4	76	22.9%	9.4%	0.94	3.80