Joe Ross
P
Round Rock Express
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 243 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.34
FIP4.46
K%17.1%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%8.8%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p8030.0%
K%
p1012.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.391
SI (24%)
CU (6%)
CH-0.8 (2%)
FB-1.2 (44%)
SL-2.3 (29%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 27 | 153 | 613 | 138 | 40 | 12 | 90% | 5.1 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 13.8% | 2.0% | 3.12 | 3.33 | +3.7 |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 27 | 153 | 613 | 138 | 40 | 12 | 90% | 5.1 | 22.5% | 6.5% | 16.0% | 2.0% | 3.12 | 3.10 | +4.1 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 118 | 503 | 105 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.8% | 5.8% | 15.0% | 2.0% | 3.42 | 3.19 | +3.1 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 118 | 503 | 105 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.9% | 5.4% | 15.5% | 2.0% | 3.42 | 3.11 | +3.2 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 101 | 445 | 90 | 25 | 19 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.6% | 5.7% | 13.9% | 4.4% | 4.97 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 101 | 445 | 90 | 25 | 19 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.2% | 5.6% | 14.6% | 4.3% | 4.97 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 9 | 9 | 42 | 175 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 8.8% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.40 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 9 | 9 | 42 | 175 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 3.40 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 17 | 104 | 466 | 89 | 40 | 9 | 49% | 3.0 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 5.02 | 3.76 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 17 | 104 | 466 | 89 | 40 | 9 | 49% | 3.0 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 1.9% | 5.02 | 3.67 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 20 | 19 | 108 | 460 | 109 | 30 | 17 | 95% | 5.4 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 17.2% | 3.7% | 4.17 | 3.95 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 20 | 19 | 108 | 460 | 109 | 30 | 17 | 95% | 5.4 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 17.2% | 3.7% | 4.17 | 3.96 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 29 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.03 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.43 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 7 | 14 | 65 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 88% | 1.8 | 15.4% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 5.14 | 3.36 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 7 | 14 | 65 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 88% | 1.8 | 15.4% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 5.14 | 3.39 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 14 | 89 | 386 | 76 | 34 | 9 | 48% | 3.1 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.05 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 14 | 89 | 386 | 76 | 34 | 9 | 48% | 3.1 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 4.26 | 3.86 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 60 | 263 | 46 | 20 | 8 | 5% | 1.4 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 60 | 263 | 46 | 20 | 8 | 5% | 1.4 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 46 | 2 | 74 | 323 | 42 | 27 | 13 | 4% | 1.6 | 12.0% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.99 | 5.44 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | ARI | 36 | 0 | 37 | 158 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | ARI | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 111 | 481 | 69 | 40 | 18 | — | — | 14.4% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.43 | 5.11 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 53 | 223 | 69 | 40 | 18 | — | — | 31.0% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 11.46 | 7.24 | -1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 33 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 5.15 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 28 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.45 | 5.65 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 36 | 0 | 38 | 161 | 23 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.3% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.79 | 6.02 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 33 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 28 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.50 | 5.70 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 23 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.3% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.84 | 6.07 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 330 | 87 | 750 | 3239 | 628 | 255 | 105 | 26% | 2.3 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.24 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 23 | 200 | 863 | 167 | 68 | 28 | 26% | 2.3 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 264 | 140 | 866 | 3710 | 701 | 267 | 106 | 53% | 3.3 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 3.98 | +14.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 32 | 200 | 857 | 162 | 62 | 24 | 53% | 3.3 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Ross (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 18.8% | 8.4% | 3.1% | — | 5.64 | 15.4% | 5.2% | 129 | +1.01 | — | — | — |
| Marco Quevedo R 2025 · 5.40 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.40 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 300 | 72 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 72 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 70 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 70 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2025 · 4.95 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.95 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 104 | 69 |
| Jason Berken R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 67 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 66 |
| Mitch Lively R 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.49 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 158 | 65 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.29 | 3.69 | 521 | 64 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 63 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 62 |
| Sam LeCure R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 62 |
| Toru Murata R 2024 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.55 | 12.9% | 5.7% | 1.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 267 | 61 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 61 |
| Thad Weber R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.86 | 13.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | .398 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 363 | 59 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .327 | 4.03 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 60 | -0.25 | 2.88 | 533 | 58 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 58 |
| Tom Koehler R 2024 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 58 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.84 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 58 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 16.4% | 9.7% | 1.43 | 5.17 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |