Joe Ross
P
Reno Aces
+0.3
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 243 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.45
xFIP7.21
SIERA6.69
K%19.5%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%11.1%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p2922.4%
K%
p1517.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.373
SI (37%)
CH-0.8 (12%)
FB-1.2 (51%)
SL-2.3 (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 30 | 27 | 153 | 613 | 138 | 40 | 12 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 3.12 | 3.29 | +3.5 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 24 | 24 | 118 | 503 | 105 | 27 | 10 | 20.8% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 3.42 | 3.16 | +2.9 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 18 | 18 | 101 | 445 | 90 | 25 | 19 | 19.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.97 | 4.60 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 9 | 9 | 42 | 175 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 8.8% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 3.40 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 35 | 17 | 104 | 466 | 89 | 40 | 9 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | 5.02 | 3.64 | +2.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 20 | 19 | 108 | 460 | 109 | 30 | 17 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.17 | 4.09 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 29 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 8 | 7 | 14 | 65 | 10 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.14 | — | — |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 14 | 89 | 386 | 76 | 34 | 9 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 2.2% | 4.26 | 3.82 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 44 | 2 | 60 | 263 | 46 | 20 | 8 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 6 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 7 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | 12.10 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | WSH | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 19.8% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 59 | 254 | 48 | 21 | 9 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 5.68 | 3.73 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 38 | 19 | 6 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 17.2% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 138 | 802 | 3434 | 669 | 245 | 92 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 3.84 | +13.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 34 | 200 | 856 | 167 | 61 | 23 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 3.84 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Ross (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 19.8% | 8.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.95 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 142 | +0.49 | — | — | — |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 81 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 81 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 79 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 78 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 78 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 78 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 78 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 77 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 77 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 76 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 125 | 76 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 76 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 76 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 75 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 75 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 75 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.