Joe Ross

P Round Rock Express

Age 34 RHP 6'4" / 243 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MIX3 levels	29	14	89	4.26	3.86	19.7%	8.8%	0.7	K 19.6% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.90
2025	32	MIX2 levels	44	2	60	4.65	4.30	17.5%	7.6%	0.2	K 17.1% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.40
2026	33	MIX2 levels	49	3	76	5.45	4.35	16.6%	8.9%	0.2	K 14.6% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.44
2027PROJ	34	MLBTEX	37	0	39	4.76	4.78	16.8%	8.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ	35	MLBTEX	27	0	28	5.12	5.26	15.8%	9.0%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo60

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsJuan Omar Espinoza (age 32) · Nelson Figueroa (age 34) · Marco Antonio Duarte (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.76

FIP4.78

K%16.8%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p1012.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.391

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	27	153	613	138	40	12	90%	5.1	20.5%	6.8%	13.8%	2.0%	3.12	3.34	+3.9
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	27	153	613	138	40	12	90%	5.1	22.5%	6.5%	16.0%	2.0%	3.12	3.10	+4.4
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	118	503	105	27	10	100%	4.9	20.8%	5.8%	15.0%	2.0%	3.42	3.19	+3.2
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	118	503	105	27	10	100%	4.9	20.9%	5.4%	15.5%	2.0%	3.42	3.11	+3.4
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	101	445	90	25	19	100%	5.6	19.6%	5.7%	13.9%	4.4%	4.97	4.55	+1.0
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	101	445	90	25	19	100%	5.6	20.2%	5.6%	14.6%	4.3%	4.97	4.50	+1.1
2018	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	9	9	42	175	26	12	4	100%	4.7	8.8%	6.8%	1.9%	2.5%	3.40	4.60	+0.4
2018	25	MIX RAW	5 levels	9	9	42	175	26	12	4	100%	4.7	14.9%	6.9%	8.0%	2.3%	3.40	3.95	+0.7
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	104	466	89	40	9	49%	3.0	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	2.0%	5.02	3.75	+1.0
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	17	104	466	89	40	9	49%	3.0	19.1%	8.6%	10.5%	1.9%	5.02	3.67	+1.1
2021	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	20	19	108	460	109	30	17	95%	5.4	23.7%	6.5%	17.2%	3.7%	4.17	3.95	+1.9
2021	28	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	20	19	108	460	109	30	17	95%	5.4	23.7%	6.5%	17.2%	3.7%	4.17	3.96	+1.9
2022	29	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	1	1	3	11	4	0	0	100%	3.0	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.03	—
2022	29	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	1	1	3	11	4	0	0	100%	3.0	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.43	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	7	14	65	10	8	0	88%	1.8	15.4%	12.3%	3.1%	0.0%	5.14	3.36	—
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	7	14	65	10	8	0	88%	1.8	15.4%	12.3%	3.1%	0.0%	5.14	3.39	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	14	89	386	76	34	9	48%	3.1	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	2.4%	4.26	3.90	+0.7
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	14	89	386	76	34	9	48%	3.1	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	2.4%	4.26	3.90	+0.7
2024	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	14	89	386	76	34	9	48%	3.1	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	2.3%	4.26	3.86	+0.7
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	60	263	46	20	8	5%	1.4	17.1%	7.5%	9.6%	3.3%	4.65	4.40	+0.1
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	60	263	46	20	8	5%	1.4	17.1%	7.5%	9.6%	3.3%	4.65	4.40	+0.1
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	2	60	263	46	20	8	5%	1.4	17.5%	7.6%	9.9%	3.0%	4.65	4.30	+0.2
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	3	76	337	56	30	9	6%	1.6	14.6%	8.2%	6.4%	2.8%	5.45	4.44	+0.1
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	3	76	337	56	30	9	6%	1.6	14.6%	8.2%	6.4%	2.8%	5.45	4.44	+0.1
2026	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	3	76	337	56	30	9	6%	1.6	16.6%	8.9%	7.7%	2.7%	5.45	4.35	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			168	87	580	2513	515	182	77	52%	3.5	20.5%	7.2%	13.3%	3.1%	4.38	3.99	+9.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	TEX	37	0	39	165	28	14	5	0%	1.1	16.8%	8.4%	8.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	TEX	26	0	28	116	18	10	4	0%	1.1	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	3.4%	4.98	5.12	-0.2
2028	35	MLB CTX	TEX	27	0	28	118	19	11	4	0%	1.0	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	3.6%	5.12	5.26	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		194	87	608	2629	533	192	81	45%	3.1	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	3.1%	4.41	4.01	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		64	29	200	866	175	63	27	45%	3.1	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	3.1%	4.41	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		267	141	868	3724	711	268	100	53%	3.3	19.1%	7.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.20	3.87	+9.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	32	200	858	164	62	23	53%	3.3	19.1%	7.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.20	3.87	+3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 64 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.10 (+0.22)K% 17.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.50%	—	×0.860	15.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×0.900	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.36%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 9 IPFIP 2.50 → 2.62 (+0.13)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×0.900	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.125	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.50 → 2.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 12 IPFIP 5.10 → 5.57 (+0.47)K% 16.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.36%	—	×0.860	14.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×0.900	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷0.909	×1.100	4.40%

Result: FIP 5.10 → 5.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASan Jose Giants · 7 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.51 (+0.54)K% 15.2% → 11.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.15%	—	×0.740	11.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.180	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.890	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 6 IPFIP 3.85 → 3.84 (−0.02)K% 17.9% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.86%	—	×0.860	15.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.86%	—	×0.900	16.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.057	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.85 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 40 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.07 (+0.31)K% 18.7% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.71%	—	×0.880	16.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.68%	—	×1.050	4.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.17%	÷0.962	×1.100	1.34%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 12 IPFIP 3.42 → 3.55 (+0.13)K% 7.7% → 6.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	7.69%	—	×0.880	6.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.050	8.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.205	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.42 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAHarrisburg Senators · 5 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.61 (+1.30)K% 30.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.810	24.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.925	×1.200	6.49%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Ross (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	5.12	15.8%	6.8%	28	+0.34	—	—	—
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	66
Nelson Figueroa R 2008 · 3.94 FIP	34	SW	3.94	17.1%	11.8%	1.4%	.306	3.96	17.5%	9.9%	192	+0.02	3.71	499	65
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	65
Tim Adleman R 2022 · 5.69 FIP	34	SP-	5.69	17.5%	8.6%	5.4%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	605	64
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	63
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	63
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	62
Pete Walker R 2003 · 5.73 FIP	34	SW	5.73	12.0%	9.1%	4.5%	.267	4.70	14.0%	5.1%	114	-1.03	4.45	327	59
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	57
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	57
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	56
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	55
Rolando Arrojo R 2002 · 3.91 FIP	34	SW	3.91	14.7%	7.5%	2.0%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	700	55
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	55
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	51
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	51
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	50
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	50
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	50
Angel Sánchez R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	11.8%	5.0%	1.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	284	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	72	20.1%	7.8%	1.19	4.42
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Rich Bordi ('80-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.9	74	20.8%*	7.3%*	1.22*	4.55*
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15
Randy O'Neal ('84-'90, 1 WAR*)	2.2	73	17.4%*	7.8%*	1.21*	4.65*
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29