Joe Ross — OGILVIE

Joe Ross P Round Rock Express

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 243 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.19

FIP4.29

K%17.6%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p1012.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.391

SI (24%)

CU (6%)

CH-0.8 (2%)

FB-1.2 (44%)

SL-2.3 (29%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	27	153	613	138	40	12	90%	5.1	20.5%	6.8%	13.8%	2.0%	3.12	3.34	+2.9
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	27	153	613	138	40	12	90%	5.1	22.5%	6.5%	16.0%	2.0%	3.12	3.10	+3.4
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	118	503	105	27	10	100%	4.9	20.8%	5.8%	15.0%	2.0%	3.42	3.19	+2.5
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	118	503	105	27	10	100%	4.9	20.9%	5.4%	15.5%	2.0%	3.42	3.11	+2.6
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	101	445	90	25	19	100%	5.6	19.6%	5.7%	13.9%	4.4%	4.97	4.55	+0.4
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	101	445	90	25	19	100%	5.6	20.2%	5.6%	14.6%	4.3%	4.97	4.50	+0.5
2018	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	9	9	42	175	26	12	4	100%	4.7	8.8%	6.8%	1.9%	2.5%	3.40	4.60	+0.1
2018	25	MIX RAW	5 levels	9	9	42	175	26	12	4	100%	4.7	14.9%	6.9%	8.0%	2.3%	3.40	3.95	+0.5
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	104	466	89	40	9	49%	3.0	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	2.0%	5.02	3.75	+1.0
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	17	104	466	89	40	9	49%	3.0	19.1%	8.6%	10.5%	1.9%	5.02	3.67	+1.1
2021	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	20	19	108	460	109	30	17	95%	5.4	23.7%	6.5%	17.2%	3.7%	4.17	3.95	+1.2
2021	28	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	20	19	108	460	109	30	17	95%	5.4	23.7%	6.5%	17.2%	3.7%	4.17	3.96	+1.2
2022	29	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	1	1	3	11	4	0	0	100%	3.0	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.03	—
2022	29	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	1	1	3	11	4	0	0	100%	3.0	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.43	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	7	14	65	10	8	0	88%	1.8	15.4%	12.3%	3.1%	0.0%	5.14	3.36	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	7	14	65	10	8	0	88%	1.8	15.4%	12.3%	3.1%	0.0%	5.14	3.36	—
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	7	14	65	10	8	0	88%	1.8	15.4%	12.3%	3.1%	0.0%	5.14	3.39	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	14	89	386	76	34	9	48%	3.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.7%	2.4%	4.26	3.90	+0.7
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	14	89	386	76	34	9	48%	3.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.7%	2.4%	4.26	3.90	+0.7
2024	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	14	89	386	76	34	9	48%	3.1	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	2.3%	4.26	3.86	+0.7
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	60	263	46	20	8	5%	1.4	17.1%	7.5%	9.6%	3.3%	4.65	4.40	+0.1
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	60	263	46	20	8	5%	1.4	17.1%	7.5%	9.6%	3.3%	4.65	4.40	+0.1
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	2	60	263	46	20	8	5%	1.4	17.5%	7.6%	9.9%	3.0%	4.65	4.30	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			168	87	580	2513	515	182	77	52%	3.5	20.5%	7.2%	13.3%	3.1%	4.38	3.99	+6.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	46	2	71	318	49	28	9	4%	1.6	13.2%	8.1%	5.1%	3.0%	5.80	4.64	—
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	46	2	71	318	49	28	9	4%	1.6	13.2%	8.1%	5.1%	3.0%	5.80	4.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AAA RAW	TEX	38	2	60	261	42	22	6	5%	1.6	16.1%	8.4%	7.7%	2.3%	5.13	4.07	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	TEX	8	0	12	57	7	6	3	0%	1.5	12.3%	10.5%	1.8%	5.3%	9.26	6.29	-0.2
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	TEX	8	0	12	57	7	6	3	0%	1.5	12.3%	10.5%	1.8%	5.3%	9.26	6.29	-0.2
ROS	33	MLB MLE	TEX	4	0	4	19	3	2	1	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.3%	9.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.29	+0.0
ROS	33	MLB CTX	TEX	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	17.6%	8.3%	9.3%	3.2%	4.31	4.41	+0.0
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	76	337	52	30	10	—	—	15.5%	8.8%	6.8%	2.8%	5.71	4.62	+0.1
FULL	33	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	16	68	52	30	10	—	—	76.9%	43.4%	33.4%	14.1%	26.88	9.85	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	TEX	46	0	48	203	34	19	7	0%	1.0	16.8%	9.1%	7.7%	3.5%	4.97	5.14	-0.3
2028	35	MLB MLE	TEX	41	0	43	182	29	18	7	0%	1.1	15.8%	9.7%	6.2%	3.8%	5.27	5.47	-0.4
2027	34	MLB CTX	TEX	46	0	48	203	34	19	8	0%	1.0	16.8%	9.1%	7.7%	3.8%	5.11	5.28	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	TEX	41	0	43	182	29	18	7	0%	1.0	15.8%	9.7%	6.2%	4.1%	5.43	5.63	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		259	87	676	2916	581	220	93	34%	2.6	19.9%	7.5%	12.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.12	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		77	26	200	863	172	65	28	34%	2.6	19.9%	7.5%	12.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		264	140	864	3705	704	266	100	53%	3.3	19.0%	7.2%	11.8%	2.7%	4.22	3.89	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	32	200	858	163	62	23	53%	3.3	19.0%	7.2%	11.8%	2.7%	4.22	3.89	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Ross (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	18.7%	8.3%	3.0%	—	5.30	16.4%	7.0%	91	+0.72	—	—	—
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	71
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	70
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	69
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	69
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	68
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	67
Edwin Jackson R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	18.7%	9.5%	4.2%	.278	5.25	16.9%	6.9%	252	+0.23	3.77	521	67
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	219	66
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	66
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	64
Sam LeCure R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	32	SW	4.17	16.6%	6.5%	3.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	171	63
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	62
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	62
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	61
Brad Peacock R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	33	SP-	4.70	21.0%	9.8%	3.9%	.327	3.82	23.9%	13.3%	60	-0.88	2.97	533	61
Mike Pelfrey R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	33	SP-	5.69	14.5%	10.6%	4.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	404	60
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	58
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	58
Thad Weber R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	32	SP-	5.25	13.2%	4.4%	4.9%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	363	58
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	17.2%	9.0%	1.32	4.88
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38