Zack Wheeler

PosP

B/TL/R

Born1990-05-30

Age (2026)36

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	26	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	100%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.27	—
2016	26	A+ RAW	St. Lucie Mets	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	100%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.10	—
2017	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	17	17	86	386	81	39	15	100%	5.1	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.9%	5.21	4.75	+0.2
2017	27	MLB RAW	New York Mets	17	17	86	386	81	39	15	100%	5.1	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.9%	5.21	4.84	+0.1
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	187	762	185	56	15	100%	6.2	24.1%	7.4%	16.7%	1.9%	3.27	3.04	+4.4
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	187	762	185	56	15	100%	6.2	24.3%	7.3%	16.9%	2.0%	3.27	3.06	+4.3
2019	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	31	31	195	828	195	46	22	100%	6.3	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	2.7%	3.96	3.28	+3.9
2019	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	31	31	195	828	195	46	22	100%	6.3	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	2.7%	3.96	3.27	+3.9
2020	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	11	11	71	288	53	14	3	100%	6.5	18.4%	4.9%	13.5%	1.0%	2.92	2.69	+2.0
2020	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	11	11	71	288	53	14	3	100%	6.5	18.4%	4.9%	13.5%	1.0%	2.92	2.75	+2.0
2021	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	213	849	247	45	16	100%	6.7	29.1%	5.3%	23.8%	1.8%	2.78	2.28	+7.4
2021	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	213	849	247	45	16	100%	6.7	29.1%	5.3%	23.8%	1.9%	2.78	2.39	+7.1
2022	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	26	26	153	607	163	33	13	100%	5.9	26.9%	5.4%	21.4%	2.0%	2.82	2.62	+4.5
2022	32	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	26	26	153	607	163	33	13	100%	5.9	26.9%	5.4%	21.4%	2.1%	2.82	2.72	+4.3
2023	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	192	787	212	39	20	100%	6.0	26.9%	5.0%	22.0%	2.4%	3.61	2.75	+5.3
2023	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	192	787	212	39	20	100%	6.0	26.9%	5.0%	22.0%	2.4%	3.61	2.75	+5.3
2023	33	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	192	787	212	39	20	100%	6.0	26.9%	5.0%	22.0%	2.5%	3.61	2.86	+5.0
2024	34	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	200	787	224	52	20	100%	6.2	28.5%	6.6%	21.9%	2.4%	2.56	2.83	+5.3
2024	34	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	200	787	224	52	20	100%	6.2	28.5%	6.6%	21.9%	2.4%	2.56	2.83	+5.3
2024	34	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	200	787	224	52	20	100%	6.2	28.5%	6.6%	21.9%	2.5%	2.56	2.94	+5.0
2025	35	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	24	24	150	585	195	33	19	100%	6.2	33.3%	5.6%	27.7%	3.0%	2.71	2.66	+4.3
2025	35	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	24	24	150	585	195	33	19	100%	6.2	33.3%	5.6%	27.7%	3.0%	2.71	2.66	+4.3
2025	35	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	24	24	150	585	195	33	19	100%	6.2	33.3%	5.6%	27.7%	3.2%	2.71	2.81	+4.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			259	259	1586	6435	1721	401	162	100%	6.1	26.7%	6.2%	20.5%	2.5%	3.23	3.02	+37.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	30	30	163	656	195	50	23	100%	5.4	30.0%	7.8%	22.1%	3.2%	3.47	3.35	+3.1
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	30	30	163	656	195	50	23	100%	5.4	30.0%	7.8%	22.1%	3.2%	3.47	3.35	+3.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	36	AA RAW	PHI	2	2	10	38	13	1	2	100%	4.8	34.2%	2.6%	31.6%	5.3%	6.52	3.43	—
2026	36	AAA RAW	PHI	3	3	10	44	10	4	1	100%	3.4	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	2.3%	5.23	3.58	—
2026	36	MLB RAW	PHI	25	25	143	574	172	45	20	100%	5.7	30.0%	7.8%	22.1%	3.5%	3.14	3.48	+2.5
SO FAR	36	MLB RAW	PHI	25	25	143	574	172	45	20	100%	5.7	30.0%	7.8%	22.1%	3.5%	3.14	3.48	+2.5
ROS	36	MLB MLE	PHI	2	2	13	55	17	4	2	100%	6.6	30.3%	7.2%	23.1%	2.9%	2.98	3.03	+0.3
ROS	36	MLB CTX	PHI	2	2	13	55	17	4	2	100%	6.5	30.3%	7.2%	23.1%	3.1%	3.10	3.15	+0.3
2026 TOT	36	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	176	711	212	54	25	—	—	29.8%	7.6%	22.2%	3.5%	3.44	3.32	+3.4
FULL	36	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	156	661	212	54	25	—	—	32.1%	8.2%	23.9%	3.7%	3.88	3.48	+3.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	PHI	22	22	134	567	166	44	20	100%	6.1	29.3%	7.8%	21.5%	3.6%	3.77	3.95	+1.5
2028	38	MLB MLE	PHI	19	19	116	488	137	41	20	100%	6.1	28.1%	8.5%	19.6%	4.0%	4.14	4.38	+0.7
2029	39	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	99	419	113	39	19	100%	5.8	27.0%	9.2%	17.8%	4.5%	4.55	4.82	+0.1
2027	37	MLB CTX	PHI	22	22	134	566	166	44	22	100%	6.1	29.3%	7.8%	21.5%	3.8%	3.91	4.09	+1.5
2028	38	MLB CTX	PHI	19	19	116	490	138	42	21	100%	6.1	28.1%	8.5%	19.6%	4.3%	4.30	4.54	+0.7
2029	39	MLB CTX	PHI	16	16	99	418	113	38	20	100%	6.2	27.0%	9.2%	17.8%	4.8%	4.73	5.00	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		320	320	1949	7964	2154	529	226	100%	6.1	27.0%	6.6%	20.4%	2.8%	3.41	3.22	+40.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	817	221	54	23	100%	6.1	27.0%	6.6%	20.4%	2.8%	3.41	3.22	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		266	266	1612	6539	1750	410	158	100%	6.1	26.8%	6.3%	20.5%	2.4%	3.25	2.96	+39.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		33	33	200	811	217	51	20	100%	6.1	26.8%	6.3%	20.5%	2.4%	3.25	2.96	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Wheeler (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.13	31.2%	6.0%	2.8%	—	4.34	28.3%	19.8%	349	+1.21	—	—	—
Justin Verlander R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	36	SP	3.14	35.4%	5.0%	4.4%	.215	2.32	27.8%	23.4%	175	-0.82	2.32	1,584	63
Max Scherzer R 2020 · 3.27 FIP	36	SP	3.27	31.2%	7.5%	3.4%	.351	2.96	31.1%	25.5%	477	-0.31	2.13	1,822	58
Charlie Morton R 2020 · 3.09 FIP	36	SP	3.09	24.7%	5.9%	2.4%	.342	3.38	27.5%	18.4%	521	+0.29	2.52	1,534	46
Zack Greinke R 2020 · 2.69 FIP	36	SP	2.69	24.5%	3.3%	2.3%	.319	4.52	15.5%	10.9%	450	+1.83	2.56	1,517	41
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	34
Adam Wainwright R 2018 · 4.05 FIP	36	SP	4.05	22.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.303	3.83	20.7%	14.3%	444	-0.22	2.03	1,127	33
A.J. Burnett R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	38	SP	3.16	20.5%	6.7%	1.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	164	31
John Lackey R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	36	SP	3.51	19.5%	5.4%	2.5%	.291	4.34	22.3%	15.4%	359	+0.83	3.51	577	27
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	25
Josh Roenicke R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	34	SP	3.37	18.0%	5.8%	1.9%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	283	25
Kameron Loe R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	35	SP	3.38	17.1%	8.0%	1.3%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	201	21
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	21
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	428	18
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	37	SP	3.28	13.2%	3.6%	1.5%	.345	3.48	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.28	199	17
Shaun Marcum R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	33	SP	4.04	17.8%	6.0%	3.1%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	123	17
CC Sabathia L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	36	SP	3.96	19.8%	8.3%	2.7%	.283	4.30	20.9%	13.0%	409	+0.34	3.76	756	16
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	15
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	15
Brad Penny R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP	3.68	12.0%	5.8%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	135	13
Tim Dillard R 2019 · 4.10 FIP	36	SP-	4.10	13.6%	5.5%	2.6%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	352	11

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	126	29.1%	7.7%	1.39	3.80
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17

Zack Wheeler

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps