Zack Wheeler
PosP
B/TL/R
Born1990-05-30
Age (2026)36
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | -25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.27 | — |
| 2016 | 26 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | -25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.10 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 17 | 17 | 86 | 386 | 81 | 39 | 15 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.21 | 4.75 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 17 | 17 | 86 | 386 | 81 | 39 | 15 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.21 | 4.84 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 187 | 762 | 185 | 56 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 16.7% | 1.9% | 3.27 | 3.04 | +5.2 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 187 | 762 | 185 | 56 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.3% | 7.3% | 16.9% | 2.0% | 3.27 | 3.06 | +5.1 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 31 | 195 | 828 | 195 | 46 | 22 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.6% | 5.6% | 18.0% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.28 | +4.8 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 31 | 195 | 828 | 195 | 46 | 22 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.6% | 5.6% | 18.0% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.27 | +4.9 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 11 | 71 | 288 | 53 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.4% | 4.9% | 13.5% | 1.0% | 2.92 | 2.71 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 11 | 71 | 288 | 53 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.4% | 4.9% | 13.5% | 1.0% | 2.92 | 2.75 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 213 | 849 | 247 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 6.7 | 29.1% | 5.3% | 23.8% | 1.8% | 2.78 | 2.31 | +7.7 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 213 | 849 | 247 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 6.7 | 29.1% | 5.3% | 23.8% | 1.9% | 2.78 | 2.39 | +7.5 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 26 | 26 | 153 | 607 | 163 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.9% | 5.4% | 21.4% | 2.1% | 2.82 | 2.66 | +4.9 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 26 | 26 | 153 | 607 | 163 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.9% | 5.4% | 21.4% | 2.1% | 2.82 | 2.72 | +4.8 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 192 | 787 | 212 | 39 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.9% | 5.0% | 22.0% | 2.5% | 3.61 | 2.80 | +5.8 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 192 | 787 | 212 | 39 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.9% | 5.0% | 22.0% | 2.5% | 3.61 | 2.86 | +5.7 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 200 | 787 | 224 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 6.2 | 28.5% | 6.6% | 21.9% | 2.5% | 2.56 | 2.88 | +5.9 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 200 | 787 | 224 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 6.2 | 28.5% | 6.6% | 21.9% | 2.5% | 2.56 | 2.94 | +5.8 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 24 | 24 | 150 | 585 | 195 | 33 | 19 | 100% | 6.2 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 27.7% | 3.1% | 2.71 | 2.72 | +4.7 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 24 | 24 | 150 | 585 | 195 | 33 | 19 | 100% | 6.2 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 27.7% | 3.2% | 2.71 | 2.81 | +4.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 20 | 20 | 113 | 437 | 131 | 27 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 30.4% | 6.2% | 24.2% | 2.8% | 2.79 | 2.86 | +3.4 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 80 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 30.7% | 6.1% | 24.6% | 2.8% | 2.78 | 2.84 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 80 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 30.7% | 6.1% | 24.6% | 2.9% | 2.81 | 2.87 | +1.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 36 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 175 | 699 | 211 | 43 | 20 | — | — | 30.2% | 6.1% | 24.1% | 2.9% | 2.78 | 2.85 | +5.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 36 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 155 | 654 | 211 | 43 | 21 | — | — | 32.3% | 6.6% | 25.7% | 3.1% | 3.16 | 2.93 | +4.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 22 | 134 | 567 | 168 | 38 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 29.7% | 6.7% | 22.9% | 3.2% | 3.43 | 3.61 | +2.8 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 19 | 116 | 488 | 139 | 36 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.5% | 7.4% | 21.1% | 3.7% | 3.80 | 4.04 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | PHI | 16 | 16 | 99 | 419 | 115 | 34 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 19.2% | 4.2% | 4.21 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 40 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 85 | 361 | 95 | 32 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.2% | 8.8% | 17.4% | 4.6% | 4.63 | 4.91 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 41 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 73 | 310 | 84 | 27 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.1% | 8.7% | 18.3% | 5.1% | 4.90 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 168 | 38 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 29.7% | 6.7% | 22.9% | 3.3% | 3.46 | 3.64 | +2.8 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 140 | 36 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.5% | 7.4% | 21.1% | 3.8% | 3.84 | 4.08 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | PHI | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 114 | 34 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 19.2% | 4.2% | 4.25 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 40 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 94 | 32 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.2% | 8.8% | 17.4% | 4.7% | 4.67 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 41 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 83 | 27 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.1% | 8.7% | 18.3% | 5.1% | 4.95 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 344 | 344 | 2106 | 8622 | 2338 | 562 | 247 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.1% | 6.5% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 3.39 | 3.21 | +54.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 819 | 222 | 53 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.1% | 6.5% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 3.39 | 3.21 | +5.1 | ||
| Career | — | 256 | 256 | 1562 | 6320 | 1686 | 385 | 152 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.7% | 6.1% | 20.6% | 2.4% | 3.20 | 2.94 | +45.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 809 | 216 | 49 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.7% | 6.1% | 20.6% | 2.4% | 3.20 | 2.94 | +5.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zack Wheeler (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.17 | 31.1% | 6.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.00 | 28.6% | 21.3% | 349 | +0.83 | — | — | — |
| Justin Verlander R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 36 | SP | 2.94 | 35.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | .215 | 2.24 | 27.8% | 23.4% | 175 | -0.70 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 34 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 33 |
| A.J. Burnett R 2028 · 3.10 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.10 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 164 | 29 |
| Max Scherzer R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.27 | 31.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | .351 | 3.06 | 31.1% | 25.5% | 477 | -0.21 | 2.13 | 1,761 | 29 |
| John Lackey R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.42 | 19.5% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.21 | 22.3% | 15.4% | 359 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 577 | 26 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.49 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 283 | 23 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.31 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 485 | 23 |
| Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.13 | 24.7% | 5.9% | 2.5% | .342 | 3.38 | 27.5% | 18.4% | 521 | +0.25 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 20 |
| Kameron Loe R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.47 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 201 | 19 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.47 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 1.8% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 214 | 19 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 18 |
| Zack Greinke R 2026 · 2.58 FIP | 36 | SP | 2.58 | 24.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.43 | 15.5% | 10.9% | 450 | +1.85 | 2.58 | 1,517 | 18 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 18 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.07 | 13.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | .345 | 3.27 | 12.8% | 11.7% | 45 | +0.20 | 3.07 | 199 | 16 |
| Walter Silva R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 15 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2023 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 15 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.35 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 138 | 15 |
| Jake Peavy R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 14 |
| Angel Castro R 2024 · 3.48 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.48 | 14.5% | 7.4% | 1.2% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 292 | 13 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.95 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.72 | 20.7% | 14.3% | 444 | -0.23 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 12 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 110 | 28.7% | 7.4% | 1.45 | 3.86 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Domingo Germán ('24) | 6 | 88 | 24.4% | 7.4% | 1.65 | 4.58 |
| Mike Minor ('22) | 6 | 126 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 1.44 | 4.38 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Kutter Crawford ('24) | 3 | 130 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 1.45 | 4.47 |