Zack Wheeler

PosP

B/TL/R

Born1990-05-30

Age (2027)37

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2028

Pitching

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	34	MLBPHI	32	32	200	2.56	2.94	28.5%	6.6%	6.2
2025	35	MLBPHI	24	24	150	2.71	2.81	33.3%	5.6%	5.0
2026	36	MIX3 levels	33	33	182	3.31	3.30	29.7%	7.2%	4.7	K 29.9% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.16
2027PROJ	37	MLBPHI	24	24	142	3.18	3.36	31.0%	6.8%	3.6
2028PROJ	38	MLBPHI	19	19	115	3.69	3.93	29.8%	7.5%	2.2
2029PROJ	39	MLBPHI	14	14	87	4.10	4.37	28.7%	8.2%	1.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 15.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 7.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Hitting

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2018	28	MLBNYM	60	.196/.196/.232	0	0	11	-0.5
2019	29	MLBNYM	64	.211/.262/.298	1	0	56	-0.2
2021	31	MLBPHI	73	.162/.162/.191	0	0	-14	-0.9
2022	32	No MLB games played
2023	33	No MLB games played
2024	34	No MLB games played
2025	35	No MLB games played
2026	36	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.6

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service13.570First FA2028

2027Ext$42M

Form1.67 ERA (proj 3.18) · K 30.8% (proj 31.0%) · BB 6.2% (proj 6.8%) · last 60d · 38 IP through Oct 27

CompsHiroki Kuroda (age 37) · Yasutomo Kubo (age 38) · Masato Yoshii (age 37)

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2013	23	MLB MLE	New York Mets	17	17	100	431	84	44	10	100%	5.9	19.5%	10.2%	9.3%	2.3%	3.42	4.02	+1.6
2013	23	MLB RAW	New York Mets	17	17	100	431	84	44	10	100%	5.9	19.5%	10.2%	9.3%	2.3%	3.42	4.04	+1.6
2014	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	32	32	185	794	187	76	14	100%	5.8	23.6%	9.6%	14.0%	1.8%	3.54	3.29	+4.8
2014	24	MLB RAW	New York Mets	32	32	185	794	187	76	14	100%	5.8	23.6%	9.6%	14.0%	1.8%	3.54	3.29	+4.8
2016	26	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	100%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.27	—
2016	26	A+ RAW	St. Lucie Mets	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	100%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.10	—
2017	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	17	17	86	386	81	39	15	100%	5.1	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.9%	5.21	4.75	+0.7
2017	27	MLB RAW	New York Mets	17	17	86	386	81	39	15	100%	5.1	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.9%	5.21	4.84	+0.6
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	187	762	185	56	15	100%	6.2	24.1%	7.4%	16.7%	1.9%	3.27	3.04	+5.6
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	187	762	185	56	15	100%	6.2	24.3%	7.3%	16.9%	2.0%	3.27	3.06	+5.5
2019	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	31	31	195	828	195	46	22	100%	6.3	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	2.7%	3.96	3.28	+5.2
2019	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	31	31	195	828	195	46	22	100%	6.3	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	2.7%	3.96	3.27	+5.2
2020	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	11	11	71	288	53	14	3	100%	6.5	18.4%	4.9%	13.5%	1.0%	2.92	2.69	+2.5
2020	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	11	11	71	288	53	14	3	100%	6.5	18.4%	4.9%	13.5%	1.0%	2.92	2.75	+2.4
2021	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	213	849	247	45	16	100%	6.7	29.1%	5.3%	23.8%	1.8%	2.78	2.28	+8.9
2021	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	213	849	247	45	16	100%	6.7	29.1%	5.3%	23.8%	1.9%	2.78	2.39	+8.5
2022	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	26	26	153	607	163	33	13	100%	5.9	26.9%	5.4%	21.4%	2.0%	2.82	2.62	+5.5
2022	32	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	26	26	153	607	163	33	13	100%	5.9	26.9%	5.4%	21.4%	2.1%	2.82	2.72	+5.2
2023	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	192	787	212	39	20	100%	6.0	26.9%	5.0%	22.0%	2.4%	3.61	2.75	+6.5
2023	33	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	192	787	212	39	20	100%	6.0	26.9%	5.0%	22.0%	2.5%	3.61	2.86	+6.2
2024	34	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	200	787	224	52	20	100%	6.2	28.5%	6.6%	21.9%	2.4%	2.56	2.83	+6.5
2024	34	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	200	787	224	52	20	100%	6.2	28.5%	6.6%	21.9%	2.4%	2.56	2.83	+6.5
2024	34	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	200	787	224	52	20	100%	6.2	28.5%	6.6%	21.9%	2.5%	2.56	2.94	+6.2
2025	35	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	24	24	150	585	195	33	19	100%	6.2	33.3%	5.6%	27.7%	3.0%	2.71	2.66	+5.3
2025	35	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	24	24	150	585	195	33	19	100%	6.2	33.3%	5.6%	27.7%	3.0%	2.71	2.66	+5.3
2025	35	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	24	24	150	585	195	33	19	100%	6.2	33.3%	5.6%	27.7%	3.2%	2.71	2.81	+5.0
2026	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	33	182	727	216	52	24	100%	5.5	29.9%	7.3%	22.6%	3.0%	3.31	3.16	+5.1
2026	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	33	182	727	216	52	24	100%	5.5	29.9%	7.3%	22.6%	3.0%	3.31	3.16	+5.1
2026	36	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	33	182	727	216	52	24	100%	5.5	29.7%	7.2%	22.6%	3.3%	3.31	3.30	+4.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			311	311	1890	7731	2013	523	187	100%	6.1	26.0%	6.8%	19.3%	2.4%	3.26	3.09	+54.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	PHI	24	24	142	600	186	41	18	100%	5.9	31.0%	6.8%	24.1%	3.0%	3.18	3.36	+3.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	PHI	19	19	115	486	145	37	17	100%	6.1	29.8%	7.5%	22.3%	3.4%	3.55	3.79	+2.2
2029	39	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	87	367	105	30	14	100%	6.2	28.7%	8.2%	20.4%	3.9%	3.95	4.22	+1.2
2030	40	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	57	240	66	21	10	100%	6.3	27.5%	8.9%	18.6%	4.3%	4.37	4.66	+0.5
2028	38	MLB CTX	PHI	19	19	115	486	145	37	18	100%	6.1	29.8%	7.5%	22.3%	3.7%	3.69	3.93	+2.2
2029	39	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	87	367	105	30	15	100%	6.2	28.7%	8.2%	20.4%	4.1%	4.10	4.37	+1.2
2030	40	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	57	241	66	21	11	100%	5.7	27.5%	8.9%	18.6%	4.6%	4.54	4.83	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		354	354	2149	8823	2329	611	231	100%	6.1	26.4%	6.9%	19.5%	2.6%	3.35	3.19	+59.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	821	217	57	21	100%	6.1	26.4%	6.9%	19.5%	2.6%	3.35	3.19	+5.5
Career	—	MLE		318	318	1916	7835	2042	531	182	100%	6.0	26.1%	6.8%	19.3%	2.3%	3.28	3.04	+58.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		33	33	200	818	213	55	19	100%	6.0	26.1%	6.8%	19.3%	2.3%	3.28	3.04	+5.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 10 IPFIP 3.58 → 3.86 (+0.28)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.860	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 10 IPFIP 3.43 → 4.59 (+1.16)K% 34.2% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.21%	—	×0.810	27.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.63%	—	×1.100	2.89%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.32%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.43 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Wheeler (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.13	28.9%	20.9%	259	+0.77	—	—	—
Hiroki Kuroda R 2012 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP	3.66	18.7%	5.5%	2.6%	.277	3.42	18.0%	13.3%	400	-0.24	2.96	1,319	52
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	35
Masato Yoshii R 2002 · 4.15 FIP	37	SP-	4.15	13.4%	5.4%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	757	27
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	24
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	21
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	15
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	37	SP	3.28	13.2%	3.6%	1.5%	.345	3.48	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.14	259	9
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	4
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	1
Mauricio Lara L 2016 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP-	3.68	12.1%	7.6%	1.1%	.294	4.34	12.2%	5.6%	219	+0.66	3.62	444	0
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	0
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	0

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11.5	143	26.7%	7.1%	1.01	3.32
Johan Santana ('12)	10.1	169	24.1%	6.9%	0.98	3.20
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*
Stephen Strasburg ('22)	7.3	134	28.9%	6.6%	0.91	3.24
Sonny Siebert ('64-'75, 28 WAR*)	10.8	179	22.1%*	7.5%*	1.17*	3.86*
Don Gullett ('70-'78, 21 WAR*)	7.0	154	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.16*	3.77*

Zack Wheeler

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps