Nelson Rada — OGILVIE

Nelson RadaCF Salt Lake Bees

Age 20 L/L 5'9" / 185 lbs AAA HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION363 act + 242 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.243 / .325 / .304

PA242

HR1

SB16

K%21

BB%9

BABIP315

ISO61

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 56 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT56

scouting grade only

POWER36

scouting grade only

EYE59

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$13M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+2.4	$15M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+2.8	$17M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$15M	+3.0	$16M	+$7M
Totals		$32M		$71M	+$50M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	16	ROK	DSL Angels	—	206	176	47	13	3	1	14	39	14	27	6	267	368	392	760	125	338	19	7	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK	DSL Angels	—	206	164	51	12	3	1	26	26	14	27	6	311	446	439	885	128	365	13	13	400	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	540	457	108	11	4	2	55	131	16	55	11	236	339	291	630	55	324	24	10	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	540	439	121	13	6	2	73	98	16	55	11	276	398	346	744	71	348	18	14	340	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	502	443	89	9	0	1	42	159	8	35	11	201	282	228	510	27	306	32	8	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	502	428	100	12	0	1	57	117	8	35	11	234	335	269	603	35	314	23	11	283	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA	3 teams	—	645	559	142	21	3	2	58	165	15	57	19	254	340	313	653	59	355	26	9	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA	3 teams	—	645	537	154	21	4	2	80	125	15	57	19	287	394	352	746	65	369	19	12	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	AAA	LAA	—	363	312	82	8	4	2	33	72	5	28	5	263	343	333	676	71	331	20	9	295	84	-7	+4	+0	+1	+10	0.9
YTD	20	AAA	LAA	—	363	297	84	9	4	2	48	56	5	28	5	283	391	360	752	77	337	15	13	335	115	+6	+4	+0	+1	+10	2.2
ROS	20	AAA	LAA	10%	242	214	52	6	2	1	22	52	4	16	4	243	325	304	629	61	312	21	9	288	78	-6	+2	+1	+1	+7	0.5
ROS	20	MLB	LAA	10%	24	22	5	1	0	0	2	5	0	2	0	227	292	273	564	45	311	21	8	276	70	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
FULL	20	AAA	LAA	—	387	334	87	9	4	2	35	77	5	30	5	260	340	329	669	69	328	20	9	294	83	-7	+4	+0	+1	+11	0.9
TOT	20	AAA	LAA	—	605	526	134	14	6	3	55	124	9	44	9	255	336	321	657	67	324	20	9	292	82	-12	+5	+1	+2	+17	1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	LAA	38%	575	510	123	15	4	4	52	123	8	36	8	241	321	310	631	69	309	21	9	292	81	-12	+4	+3	+2	+16	1.3
2028	22	MLB	LAA	50%	597	528	130	16	4	7	55	125	9	37	9	246	328	331	659	85	308	21	9	302	89	-7	+4	+3	+2	+17	1.9
2029	23	MLB	LAA	55%	615	543	137	17	4	10	58	126	9	38	9	252	334	354	688	101	308	20	9	311	96	-3	+4	+3	+2	+17	2.4
2030	24	MLB	LAA	56%	627	554	140	18	4	11	59	127	9	39	9	253	334	359	694	106	309	20	9	316	100	+0	+4	+3	+2	+18	2.8
2031	25	MLB	LAA	56%	634	559	143	18	4	12	61	128	9	39	9	256	339	367	705	111	309	20	10	320	103	+2	+4	+3	+2	+18	3.0
2032	26	MLB	LAA	56%	639	563	144	18	4	13	62	128	9	40	9	256	339	371	710	115	309	20	10	321	104	+3	+4	+3	+2	+18	3.1
2033	27	MLB	LAA	55%	637	561	144	18	4	13	62	129	9	40	9	257	340	373	713	116	309	20	10	321	104	+3	+4	+3	+2	+18	3.1
2034	28	MLB	LAA	55%	631	555	141	18	4	12	62	128	9	37	9	254	339	366	704	112	308	20	10	320	103	+2	+4	+2	+2	+18	2.9
2035	29	MLB	LAA	53%	621	546	138	17	4	12	61	127	9	34	8	253	338	364	702	112	308	20	10	319	102	+1	+4	+1	+2	+18	2.7
2036	30	MLB	LAA	53%	609	535	135	17	4	11	60	126	9	30	7	252	338	361	698	108	307	21	10	316	100	+0	+3	+1	+2	+17	2.4
2037	31	MLB	LAA	52%	595	523	129	16	3	10	59	125	8	26	6	247	332	346	678	99	305	21	10	312	97	-2	+3	-0	+2	+17	2.0
2038	32	MLB	LAA	52%	576	506	124	15	3	10	57	124	8	21	5	245	331	346	677	101	303	22	10	307	93	-4	+2	-1	+2	+16	1.6
2039	33	MLB	LAA	52%	547	481	115	13	3	8	54	120	7	15	4	239	325	328	653	89	300	22	10	301	89	-7	+1	-2	+2	+15	1.0
2040	34	MLB	LAA	47%	499	440	103	11	3	7	49	113	7	10	2	234	321	320	641	86	295	23	10	293	83	-10	+1	-3	+2	+14	0.5
2041	35	MLB	LAA	43%	443	391	88	9	2	6	43	104	6	6	2	225	311	304	616	79	291	23	10	285	76	-12	+0	-4	+2	+13	-0.1
2027	21	MLB	LAA	38%	221	196	47	6	1	1	20	47	3	14	3	240	320	296	616	56	308	21	9	280	72	-7	+2	+1	+1	+6	0.3
2028	22	MLB	LAA	50%	299	265	65	8	2	3	28	63	4	19	4	245	327	325	651	79	307	21	9	290	80	-7	+2	+1	+1	+8	0.7
2029	23	MLB	LAA	55%	338	298	74	9	2	5	32	69	5	21	5	248	331	342	674	94	307	20	9	299	87	-5	+2	+2	+1	+10	1.0
2030	24	MLB	LAA	56%	350	309	78	10	2	6	33	71	5	22	5	252	334	356	690	104	308	20	9	305	91	-3	+2	+2	+1	+10	1.2
2031	25	MLB	LAA	56%	356	314	80	10	2	7	34	72	5	22	5	255	337	366	703	111	308	20	10	308	94	-3	+2	+2	+1	+10	1.3
2032	26	MLB	LAA	56%	360	317	81	10	2	7	35	72	5	22	5	256	339	366	705	110	308	20	10	309	95	-2	+2	+2	+1	+10	1.4
2033	27	MLB	LAA	55%	353	311	79	10	2	7	34	71	5	22	5	254	337	367	704	113	308	20	10	309	95	-2	+2	+2	+1	+10	1.3
2034	28	MLB	LAA	55%	346	304	78	10	2	7	34	70	5	20	5	257	341	372	713	115	308	20	10	308	94	-2	+2	+1	+1	+10	1.2
2035	29	MLB	LAA	53%	332	291	73	9	2	6	33	68	5	18	4	251	337	357	695	107	307	20	10	307	93	-3	+2	+1	+1	+9	1.1
2036	30	MLB	LAA	53%	320	280	71	9	2	6	32	66	5	16	4	254	341	364	705	111	306	21	10	304	91	-3	+2	+0	+1	+9	0.9
2037	31	MLB	LAA	52%	310	272	67	8	2	5	31	65	4	13	3	246	332	346	678	99	305	21	10	301	88	-4	+1	-0	+1	+9	0.7
2038	32	MLB	LAA	52%	299	264	65	8	2	5	29	64	4	11	3	246	330	348	678	102	302	21	10	296	85	-5	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.5
2039	33	MLB	LAA	52%	283	249	60	7	2	4	28	62	4	8	2	241	327	333	661	92	299	22	10	290	80	-6	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.3
2040	34	MLB	LAA	47%	236	208	48	5	1	3	23	53	3	5	1	231	316	308	624	77	295	22	10	283	74	-7	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.0
2041	35	MLB	LAA	43%	189	167	37	4	1	2	18	44	2	3	1	222	305	293	598	72	290	23	10	274	68	-7	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4616	4067	1008	124	27	74	446	962	64	238	55	248	332	346	678	98	306	21	10	299	87	-67	+26	+9	+16	+131	11.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	141	17	4	10	63	135	9	34	8	246	330	342	672	96	304	21	10	299	87	-9	+4	+1	+2	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	10980	9644	2372	296	66	153	1045	2399	182	638	156	246	331	338	669	92	311	22	10	304	91	-117	+65	+16	+39	+311	32.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	141	18	4	9	62	142	11	38	9	247	332	340	672	93	312	22	10	304	91	-7	+4	+1	+2	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	16	ROK	DSL Angels	—	206	164	51	12	3	1	26	26	14	27	6	311	446	439	885	128	365	13	13	400	164	+15	+3	—	—	+6	2.4
2023	17	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	540	439	121	13	6	2	73	98	16	55	11	276	398	346	744	71	348	18	14	340	119	+11	+7	—	—	+15	3.4
2024	18	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	502	428	100	12	0	1	57	117	8	35	11	234	335	269	603	35	314	23	11	283	74	-14	+3	—	—	+14	0.2
2025	19	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	201	161	52	6	3	1	30	35	2	20	6	323	435	416	851	93	405	17	15	373	144	+10	+2	—	—	+6	1.8
2025	19	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	388	328	91	13	1	1	45	82	10	34	12	277	381	332	714	55	366	21	12	330	110	+5	+2	—	—	+11	1.8
2025	19	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	56	48	11	2	0	0	5	8	3	3	1	229	339	271	610	42	275	14	9	293	82	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Julio Lugolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,290 PA	11	5,290	80	198	270	334	386	+31	+25	23.8	23.1
	/162	664	10	25	270	334	386	+3.9	+3.1	3.0	pk7: 22
#3Chone Figginslast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,348 PA	11	5,348	35	339	276	350	363	+16	+13	22.1	22.9
	/162	664	4	42	276	350	363	+2.0	+1.6	2.7	pk7: 24
#4Michael Bournlast yr '16 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,312 PA	10	5,312	36	340	266	330	358	+17	+56	22.1	21.6
	/162	664	4	42	266	330	358	+2.1	+7.0	2.8	pk7: 21
#5Corey Pattersonlast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,422 PA	10	4,422	116	215	254	292	403	-2	+56	15.8	16.6
	/162	664	17	32	254	292	403	-0.3	+8.4	2.4	pk7: 17
#6Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,623	77	237	250	330	352	+6	+34	14.5	12.2
	/162	664	11	34	250	330	352	+0.9	+4.9	2.1	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nelson Rada (OGILVIE)	20	45→56	31→36	61→60	59	255/336/321	67	324	3	44	20%	9%	82	+1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Mallex Smith 2014 · A	21	47→57	37→45	58→65	48	221/294/290	68	289	5	34	24%	8%	65	-0.7	255/319/349	94	335	6	44	23%	8%	90	+1.0	270/333/370	100	351	5	52	23%	8%	97	+1.1
✕Rochest Cruz 2019 · A	20	49	37→40	61→65	54	226/303/299	73	269	4	34	16%	9%	71	-0.3	206/274/271	65	290	3	23	28%	7%	52	-1.6	144/214/156	12	235	0	30	35%	6%	-5	-1.2
✕Yonny Hernández 2019 · AA	21	50→60	35→30	56→60	52	230/305/294	64	287	2	27	20%	9%	70	-0.3	235/323/292	57	302	2	27	20%	10%	78	+0.2	268/330/326	58	319	3	17	16%	7%	84	+0.3
●Elvis Andrus 2009 · AA	20	52→61	37→50	55→60	43	245/293/318	73	319	5	32	24%	6%	71	-0.3	258/320/332	74	307	4	32	16%	8%	85	+0.7	277/330/410	133	307	11	23	13%	7%	107	+2.4
✕Gabriel Mejia 2015 · A	20	54	34→30	63→70	51	245/315/301	55	327	1	43	24%	9%	76	+0.0	246/304/301	55	315	1	32	20%	7%	70	-0.3	248/299/288	40	312	0	29	19%	6%	62	-0.3
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2011 · AA	21	47→57	39→45	58→60	49	225/283/310	85	269	6	29	18%	7%	65	-0.7	254/297/354	100	294	8	19	16%	6%	82	+0.5	267/306/366	100	305	8	16	15%	5%	85	+0.5
●Rey Fuentes 2011 · A	20	46→56	36→40	59→60	38	219/261/290	71	297	3	25	27%	4%	50	-1.8	223/271/306	83	318	6	27	30%	5%	59	-1.1	274/321/368	94	353	8	33	23%	5%	91	+0.8
✕Rafael Bautista 2013 · A	20	51→53	35→30	61→60	45	236/301/296	59	312	1	33	23%	7%	69	-0.4	243/290/308	65	304	3	32	20%	5%	67	-0.5	248/289/311	63	301	3	38	18%	4%	64	-0.4
✕Ayendy Perez 2014 · A	20	50	34→30	57→60	52	231/306/289	58	287	1	25	19%	8%	69	-0.4	226/280/283	57	301	1	23	23%	7%	56	-1.3	225/274/275	49	316	0	27	27%	6%	48	-0.8
✕José Peraza 2014 · A	20	52→62	36→45	60→65	43	244/281/309	66	292	2	33	17%	4%	63	-0.9	265/291/347	82	307	4	36	14%	3%	76	+0.1	272/311/362	90	305	8	25	13%	4%	86	+0.7
●Dee Strange-Gordon 2010 · A	22	55→65	37→40	60→65	42	257/297/336	79	317	3	30	20%	4%	76	+0.1	254/291/320	66	313	2	40	18%	4%	69	-0.4	313/345/388	75	364	3	52	14%	4%	106	+2.1
●Emilio Bonifácio 2006 · A	21	51→61	35→40	57→65	46	237/287/297	60	301	2	26	21%	6%	63	-0.9	260/302/339	79	336	4	30	22%	5%	79	+0.3	273/340/354	81	349	3	41	21%	9%	96	+1.1
✕Carlos Willoughby 2009 · A	20	49→42	34→40	59→60	50	223/307/278	55	297	1	25	23%	9%	68	-0.5	226/305/299	73	287	2	26	20%	8%	72	-0.2	217/294/290	74	272	2	27	19%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	49	41→45	60→65	51	234/321/343	109	284	7	29	19%	8%	91	+1.1	235/310/360	125	296	12	18	23%	8%	91	+1.1	230/307/354	124	286	8	13	21%	9%	82	+0.1
✕Randy Ventura 2016 · A	19	53→54	35→30	61→60	51	244/305/305	61	293	1	37	17%	8%	72	-0.2	237/283/285	48	313	2	22	23%	6%	57	-1.2	240/281/274	34	325	1	21	25%	5%	50	-1.0
●Andrés Giménez 2019 · AA	20	51→60	40→50	53→55	43	240/302/341	101	309	5	21	23%	6%	81	+0.4	233/288/358	125	298	11	24	25%	5%	80	+0.4	261/326/416	155	313	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.0
✕Marcus Sanders 2007 · A	21	46→55	36→30	59→60	48	217/288/285	68	291	3	31	25%	8%	61	-1.0	220/289/292	72	293	3	23	24%	8%	63	-0.8	228/303/293	65	301	0	28	22%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Nasim Nuñez 2022 · A	21	46→49	34→30	57→65	50	211/291/257	47	297	2	32	27%	10%	56	-1.3	207/294/264	57	302	3	41	29%	11%	59	-1.1	210/286/268	58	278	5	56	25%	9%	54	-1.0
✕Gorkys Hernández 2008 · A	20	53→59	39→45	58→55	43	253/288/340	88	302	6	27	18%	4%	74	-0.1	244/288/325	81	326	5	18	25%	5%	70	-0.3	263/321/381	118	325	11	16	21%	7%	95	+1.0
✕Delino DeShields 2014 · A	21	48→55	40→45	62→65	44	228/292/324	96	309	7	37	27%	7%	72	-0.2	229/303/336	107	310	8	35	26%	9%	80	+0.4	242/320/339	97	323	6	34	25%	10%	85	+0.6