Nelson Rada

CF Salt Lake Bees

Age 21 L/L 5'9" / 185 lbs AAA K +5%HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#150ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	18	AALAA	502	.234/.335/.269	1	35	56	—	.221/.300/.253
2025	19	AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs	645	.287/.394/.352	2	57	96	—	.283/.365/.350
2026	20	AAALAA	585	.278/.379/.363	3	43	97	—	.281/.355/.358
2027PROJ10% MLB	21	MLBLAA	21	.222/.303/.280	0	1	70	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	22	MLBLAA	194	.229/.310/.305	2	12	79	0.2
2029PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBLAA	269	.234/.315/.327	4	16	85	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$5M2033Arb-2$7M2034Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed96

Chase%75

BB%74

Whiff%68

Max EV66

K%66

Career WAR2.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 38, comp-based) · star 19% · didn't stick 50%

CompsLuis Durango (age 21) · Yonny Hernández (age 21) · Mallex Smith (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .303 / .280

PA21

HR0

K%24

BB%10

BABIP288

ISO53

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2033	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$9M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$17M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	16	ROK	DSL Angels	—	206	164	51	12	3	1	26	26	14	27	6	311	446	439	885	128	365	13	13	400	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	540	439	121	13	6	2	73	98	16	55	11	276	398	346	744	71	348	18	14	340	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	502	428	100	12	0	1	57	117	8	35	11	234	335	269	603	35	314	23	11	283	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	201	161	52	6	3	1	30	35	2	20	6	323	435	416	851	93	405	17	15	373	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	388	328	91	13	1	1	45	82	10	34	12	277	381	332	714	55	366	21	12	330	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	56	48	11	2	0	0	5	8	3	3	1	229	339	271	610	42	275	14	9	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	585	485	135	22	5	3	72	109	7	43	9	278	379	363	742	85	349	19	12	330	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	206	173	38	9	2	1	17	33	14	27	6	220	338	312	650	92	260	16	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	540	458	119	12	6	2	54	133	16	55	11	260	358	325	683	66	340	25	10	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	502	443	98	11	0	1	42	147	8	35	11	221	300	253	553	32	311	29	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	201	168	54	6	3	1	23	43	2	20	6	321	409	411	820	89	393	21	11	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	388	342	90	14	1	1	31	99	10	34	12	263	342	319	661	56	360	26	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	585	506	142	21	6	2	51	131	7	43	9	281	355	358	712	77	352	22	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	206	173	38	9	2	1	17	33	14	27	6	220	338	312	650	92	266	16	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	—	206	164	51	12	3	1	26	26	14	27	6	311	446	439	885	128	365	13	13	400	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	540	458	119	12	6	2	54	133	16	55	11	260	358	325	683	66	359	25	10	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	—	540	439	121	13	6	2	73	98	16	55	11	276	398	346	744	71	348	18	14	340	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	502	443	98	11	0	1	42	147	8	35	11	221	300	253	553	32	323	29	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	502	428	100	12	0	1	57	117	8	35	11	234	335	269	603	35	314	23	11	283	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA MLE	3 teams	—	645	558	157	22	4	2	59	155	15	57	19	281	366	346	711	65	385	24	9	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA RAW	3 teams	—	645	537	154	21	4	2	80	125	15	57	19	287	394	352	746	65	369	19	12	340	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	585	506	142	21	6	2	51	131	7	43	9	281	355	358	712	77	370	22	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	585	485	135	22	5	3	72	109	7	43	9	278	379	363	742	85	349	19	12	330	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	206	173	38	9	2	1	17	33	14	27	6	220	338	312	650	92	260	16	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	540	465	119	12	6	2	54	133	16	55	11	256	358	320	678	65	340	25	10	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	502	447	98	11	0	1	42	147	8	35	11	219	300	251	551	31	311	29	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA MLE	3 teams	—	645	566	157	22	4	2	59	155	15	57	19	277	366	341	706	64	371	24	9	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	585	522	142	21	6	2	51	131	7	43	9	272	355	347	701	75	352	22	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	502	447	98	11	0	1	42	147	8	35	11	219	300	251	551	31	311	29	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA MLE	3 teams	—	645	566	157	22	4	2	59	155	15	57	19	277	366	341	706	64	371	24	9	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	585	522	142	21	6	2	51	131	7	43	9	272	355	347	701	75	352	22	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	LAA	10%	648	577	128	19	4	2	57	142	9	38	10	224	304	283	587	59	290	22	9	272	70	-23	+4	+3	+2	+14	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	21	MLB CTX	LAA	10%	21	19	4	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	222	303	280	583	58	288	24	10	271	70	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	38%	504	447	102	15	3	4	45	108	7	30	8	230	311	308	619	77	290	21	9	284	79	-13	+3	+3	+2	+11	0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	50%	537	475	112	17	3	7	49	113	8	33	9	236	316	329	645	93	291	21	9	294	85	-9	+3	+3	+2	+12	1.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	54%	560	496	119	18	3	9	51	117	8	34	9	239	320	343	663	104	292	21	9	301	90	-7	+3	+3	+2	+12	1.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	55%	578	512	123	19	3	10	53	120	8	35	9	241	322	351	672	110	293	21	9	305	92	-5	+3	+4	+2	+13	1.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	56%	590	523	125	19	3	11	54	123	8	35	9	241	322	355	677	114	292	21	9	306	93	-5	+3	+4	+2	+13	1.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	55%	590	523	125	19	3	11	54	124	8	35	9	240	321	352	673	112	292	21	9	305	92	-5	+3	+4	+2	+13	1.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	55%	582	515	123	19	3	10	54	124	8	31	9	238	319	348	667	109	291	21	9	302	91	-6	+3	+3	+2	+13	1.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	53%	565	501	119	18	3	10	52	122	7	27	7	236	316	342	658	105	290	22	9	299	88	-8	+3	+2	+2	+12	1.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	53%	552	490	115	17	3	9	50	121	7	22	6	233	313	334	647	101	289	22	9	294	85	-10	+2	+1	+2	+12	0.8
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAA	52%	534	475	109	16	3	8	48	119	6	16	5	229	308	325	633	95	286	22	9	289	82	-12	+1	+1	+2	+12	0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	38%	194	172	40	6	1	2	17	41	3	12	3	229	310	305	615	76	289	21	9	283	79	-5	+1	+1	+1	+4	0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	50%	269	239	57	8	2	4	24	56	4	16	4	234	315	327	642	92	290	21	9	293	85	-5	+2	+2	+1	+6	0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	54%	300	266	63	9	2	5	27	62	4	18	5	238	319	341	660	103	290	21	9	300	90	-4	+2	+2	+1	+6	0.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	55%	318	282	68	10	2	6	29	66	4	19	5	240	321	349	670	110	291	21	9	304	92	-3	+2	+2	+1	+7	0.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	56%	329	292	69	10	2	6	30	69	4	20	5	240	321	353	674	113	290	21	9	305	93	-3	+2	+2	+1	+7	1.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	55%	325	288	69	10	2	6	30	68	4	19	5	239	320	351	670	112	290	21	9	304	92	-3	+2	+2	+1	+7	0.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	55%	318	282	68	10	2	6	29	68	4	17	5	237	318	346	664	109	289	21	9	301	91	-4	+1	+2	+1	+7	0.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	53%	301	266	63	9	2	5	28	65	4	14	4	235	315	340	655	105	288	22	9	298	88	-4	+1	+1	+1	+7	0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	53%	290	258	60	9	1	5	26	63	4	12	3	232	312	333	645	100	287	22	9	293	85	-5	+1	+1	+1	+6	0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAA	52%	278	248	56	8	1	4	25	62	3	8	3	228	307	323	631	95	285	22	9	288	82	-6	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2922	2593	613	89	17	49	265	620	38	155	42	236	316	341	657	104	291	21	9	298	87	-40	+14	+14	+10	+63	6.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	137	20	4	11	59	138	8	34	9	237	317	343	660	106	292	21	9	298	87	-9	+3	+3	+2	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	8280	7281	1767	258	49	98	752	1836	138	527	139	243	325	332	657	89	309	22	9	297	87	-87	+29	+28	+21	+126	11.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	139	20	4	8	59	144	11	41	11	243	326	334	660	91	309	22	9	297	87	-10	+3	+3	+2	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 585 PAwOBA .324 → .311 (−13)K% 18.6% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.63%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	22.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.14%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.79%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.18%
Singles /BIP	27.93%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.050	×1.050	28.63%
Doubles /BIP	5.85%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×1.050	5.35%
Triples /BIP	1.33%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.050	1.42%
Home runs /BIP	0.80%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	0.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .324 → .311; ISO .085 → .081; BABIP .349 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 388 PAwOBA .323 → .296 (−27)K% 21.1% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.13%	÷1.011	×1.220	—	—	25.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.60%	÷1.020	×0.680	—	×1.050	8.12%
HBP% /PA	2.58%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.27%
Singles /BIP	30.89%	÷1.048	×0.920	×1.050	×1.050	29.89%
Doubles /BIP	5.28%	÷0.929	×0.910	×1.050	×1.050	5.71%
Triples /BIP	0.41%	÷1.028	×0.880	×1.050	×1.050	0.38%
Home runs /BIP	0.41%	÷1.028	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.33%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 110, 2B 86, 3B 106, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .323 → .296; ISO .055 → .057; BABIP .366 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 201 PAwOBA .366 → .346 (−21)K% 17.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.41%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	21.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.93%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×1.050	11.22%
HBP% /PA	1.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.98%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.046	×0.930	×1.050	×1.050	32.69%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.005	×0.830	×1.050	×1.050	4.34%
Triples /BIP	2.38%	÷1.079	×0.970	×1.050	×1.050	2.36%
Home runs /BIP	0.79%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.050	0.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .366 → .346; ISO .093 → .090; BABIP .405 → .393. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 502 PAwOBA .279 → .251 (−28)K% 23.3% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.31%	÷0.974	×1.220	—	—	29.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.35%	÷0.966	×0.680	—	×1.050	8.39%
HBP% /PA	1.59%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.41%
Singles /BIP	27.97%	÷1.016	×0.920	×1.050	×1.050	27.94%
Doubles /BIP	3.86%	÷1.072	×0.910	×1.050	×1.050	3.61%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.045	×0.880	×1.050	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.32%	÷0.976	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.28%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 109, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .279 → .251; ISO .035 → .032; BABIP .314 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AInland Empire 66ers · 540 PAwOBA .334 → .299 (−34)K% 18.1% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.15%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.33%	÷0.970	×0.690	—	×1.050	9.96%
HBP% /PA	2.96%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.43%
Singles /BIP	29.33%	÷1.026	×0.920	×1.050	×1.050	28.98%
Doubles /BIP	3.81%	÷1.016	×0.830	×1.050	×1.050	3.43%
Triples /BIP	1.76%	÷1.049	×0.910	×1.050	×1.050	1.68%
Home runs /BIP	0.59%	÷0.897	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.55%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 110, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .334 → .299; ISO .071 → .065; BABIP .348 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Angels · 206 PAwOBA .389 → .284 (−105)K% 12.6% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.62%	÷0.976	×1.220	—	—	15.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.14%	÷1.074	×0.700	—	×1.022	8.09%
HBP% /PA	6.80%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	4.86%
Singles /BIP	25.36%	÷1.016	×0.680	×1.037	×1.022	18.00%
Doubles /BIP	8.70%	÷0.863	×0.600	×1.037	×1.022	6.41%
Triples /BIP	2.17%	÷0.964	×0.600	×1.037	×1.022	1.43%
Home runs /BIP	0.72%	÷0.801	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.43%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 103, 2B 73, 3B 93, K 95, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .389 → .284; ISO .128 → .095; BABIP .365 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Bournlast yr '16 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,312 PA	8.0	5,312	36	340	266	330	358	+17	+56	22.0	21.6
/162	664	4	42	+2.1	+7.0	2.8	pk7: 21
#2Corey Pattersonlast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,422 PA	6.7	4,422	116	215	254	292	403	-2	+56	15.8	16.6
/162	664	17	32	-0.3	+8.4	2.4	pk7: 17
#3Gary Pettis'82-'92 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,237 PA	6.4	4,237	21	354	234*	332*	326*	+14	+45	14.6	13.8
/162	664	3	55	+2.2	+7.1	2.3	pk7: 13
#4Omar Moreno'75-'86 * career totals — 11 seasons, 5,481 PA	8.3	5,481	37	487	246*	304*	367*	+13	+49	12.5	13.1
/162	664	4	59	+1.6	+6.0	1.5	pk7: 14
#5Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#6Rudy Law'78-'86 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,647 PA	4.0	2,647	18	228	266*	325*	384*	-4	-3	6.5	6.5
/162	664	5	57	-0.9	-0.7	1.6	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	4.4	2,945	48	156	238	315	341	+11	+20	6.6	6.1
/162	664	11	35	+2.4	+4.4	1.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nelson Rada (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	222/302/280	59	290	1	12	22%	9%	70	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Durango 2024 · A	21	47	35→30	57→70	48	219/296/278	59	287	3	29	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/289/285	58	305	2	36	24%	5%	65	-1.2	249/303/294	44	325	0	54	21%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Yonny Hernández 2019 · AA	21	49→59	35→30	56→60	53	229/308/291	62	282	2	27	18%	9%	74	-0.5	240/331/296	56	307	2	27	20%	10%	84	+0.2	266/328/324	58	317	2	17	16%	7%	85	+0.1
●Mallex Smith 2014 · A	21	49→59	37→45	58→65	48	231/303/301	70	302	5	34	24%	8%	75	-0.5	263/326/356	93	344	5	44	23%	8%	95	+1.0	278/341/377	99	360	5	52	22%	8%	102	+1.1
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2011 · AA	21	49→59	39→45	58→60	49	233/290/320	87	278	6	29	18%	7%	74	-0.6	262/305/359	97	304	7	19	16%	6%	88	+0.4	278/316/373	95	318	7	16	14%	5%	93	+0.5
✕Rey Fuentes 2013 · AA	22	47→57	38→40	57→60	40	220/273/301	81	311	5	27	30%	6%	63	-1.4	261/313/355	94	344	7	29	24%	6%	90	+0.6	283/333/378	95	362	7	33	22%	6%	99	+0.9
✕Josh Anderson 2006 · AA	23	55→63	36→40	60	42	257/292/329	72	309	2	33	18%	4%	76	-0.4	273/308/345	72	323	3	32	16%	4%	85	+0.2	284/319/355	72	333	3	35	15%	4%	89	+0.6
✕Enrique Bradfield Jr. 2024 · A	22	49→51	38→40	62→65	57	230/329/306	76	292	5	37	21%	11%	86	+0.3	227/294/309	82	297	5	50	23%	8%	73	-0.6	227/294/309	81	301	5	57	24%	8%	71	-0.5
✕Nasim Nuñez 2022 · A	21	46→51	34→30	57→65	50	211/292/259	47	300	2	32	28%	10%	61	-1.5	216/303/273	57	308	3	41	27%	11%	69	-0.9	214/299/272	58	299	5	52	27%	10%	65	-1.0
✕Marcus Sanders 2007 · A	21	47→57	36→30	59→60	48	221/294/290	69	297	4	31	25%	8%	69	-0.9	221/290/293	72	294	3	23	24%	8%	68	-1.0	228/303/293	65	301	0	28	22%	9%	70	-0.5
✕Travis Jankowski 2014 · A	23	54→63	35→40	61→65	45	248/298/312	64	324	2	37	23%	6%	74	-0.5	257/315/331	74	327	3	34	20%	8%	84	+0.2	268/334/344	76	339	3	37	20%	8%	94	+0.5
✕Theo Bowe 2013 · A	22	52→57	35→30	57→60	46	242/302/303	61	321	3	35	24%	7%	74	-0.6	220/272/302	82	290	6	25	25%	6%	63	-1.4	186/227/268	82	237	7	23	24%	5%	35	-1.5
✕Shawn O'Malley 2011 · AA	23	47→57	35→40	57→60	47	217/301/275	58	294	2	26	25%	8%	69	-0.9	233/296/303	70	299	3	24	21%	7%	72	-0.7	259/320/356	97	321	5	23	20%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Gabriel Mejia 2017 · A	22	52	34→30	58→70	51	241/306/298	57	298	1	34	19%	8%	74	-0.5	213/262/265	52	285	1	16	24%	6%	50	-2.3	211/257/249	37	274	0	19	22%	5%	43	-0.8
●Emilio Bonifácio 2006 · A	21	52→62	35→40	57→65	46	242/294/303	61	308	2	26	21%	7%	70	-0.8	268/310/349	81	345	4	30	22%	6%	87	+0.4	272/337/355	83	348	3	41	21%	9%	98	+0.9
✕Rafael Bautista 2014 · A	21	50→58	35→40	58→60	45	231/293/287	56	294	2	29	21%	6%	68	-1.0	250/292/315	65	306	3	34	18%	5%	73	-0.6	261/303/319	59	317	3	41	18%	4%	74	-0.4
✕Brandon Roberts 2007 · A	22	53→61	37→40	56→55	43	250/297/318	68	311	4	28	20%	5%	76	-0.4	257/305/325	68	314	4	19	18%	5%	80	-0.1	277/332/344	68	330	4	22	16%	5%	92	+0.4
✕Antoan Richardson 2006 · A	22	52→58	35→40	59→60	50	236/321/295	59	323	3	29	26%	10%	80	-0.1	242/317/308	66	321	3	34	23%	8%	82	-0.0	254/346/314	60	335	1	30	22%	11%	90	+0.4
✕Guy Lipscomb 2024 · A	23	49	37→40	63→60	52	225/307/306	81	303	3	36	25%	10%	78	-0.3	226/292/313	87	288	5	29	22%	8%	73	-0.6	223/287/309	86	277	6	31	21%	8%	67	-0.6
✕José Peraza 2014 · A	20	53→63	36→45	61→65	44	248/288/316	68	295	2	33	17%	4%	71	-0.8	275/301/357	82	318	4	36	14%	3%	85	+0.2	275/311/366	91	307	8	25	13%	4%	91	+0.7
✕Diego Hernandez 2023 · AA	22	51→54	39→40	56→60	42	242/292/330	87	323	7	29	26%	6%	76	-0.4	220/258/309	89	306	8	18	29%	4%	59	-1.7	205/236/289	84	289	8	14	31%	3%	43	-1.3

Nelson Rada

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps