Nasim Nuñez
2B Washington Nationals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | INTLTigres del Li… | 35 | .167/.242/.267 | 0 | 2 | 36 | — | |
| 2024 | 23 | MLBWSH | 78 | .246/.370/.262 | 0 | 8 | 80 | 0.3 | |
| 2025 | 24 | AAAWSH | 232 | .254/.342/.313 | 2 | 36 | 67 | — | .240/.307/.293 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLBWSH | 92 | .232/.300/.402 | 4 | 9 | 94 | 1.0 | |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBWSH | 493 | .209/.293/.244 | 1 | 49 | 56 | -0.7 | |
| 2027PROJ | 26 | MLBWSH | 396 | .222/.304/.319 | 8 | 40 | 79 | 0.7 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 27 | MLBWSH | 360 | .221/.303/.317 | 7 | 36 | 78 | 0.6 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 28 | MLBWSH | 351 | .219/.301/.312 | 7 | 33 | 77 | 0.5 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Marlins | — | 214 | 175 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 43 | 1 | 28 | 2 | 211 | 343 | 251 | 594 | 40 | 276 | 20 | 16 | 283 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 228 | 189 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 46 | 2 | 33 | 10 | 243 | 367 | 265 | 632 | 21 | 319 | 20 | 15 | 303 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 171 | 142 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 36 | 2 | 21 | 5 | 261 | 375 | 303 | 678 | 42 | 343 | 21 | 14 | 316 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 378 | 300 | 74 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 71 | 103 | 1 | 49 | 11 | 247 | 392 | 323 | 716 | 77 | 365 | 27 | 19 | 333 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 585 | 490 | 110 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 87 | 107 | 2 | 52 | 7 | 224 | 344 | 286 | 629 | 61 | 275 | 18 | 15 | 296 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 94 | 79 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 253 | 366 | 291 | 657 | 38 | 333 | 21 | 14 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 78 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 246 | 370 | 262 | 632 | 16 | 326 | 19 | 15 | 286 | 80 | -2 | +1 | +2 | +1 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 35 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 167 | 242 | 267 | 509 | 100 | 263 | 31 | 9 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 92 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 232 | 300 | 402 | 702 | 171 | 254 | 22 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -1 | +1 | +3 | +3 | +2 | 1.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 232 | 201 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 58 | 2 | 36 | 6 | 254 | 342 | 313 | 656 | 60 | 343 | 25 | 11 | 300 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 493 | 431 | 90 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 49 | 99 | 2 | 49 | 10 | 209 | 293 | 244 | 536 | 35 | 267 | 20 | 10 | 249 | 56 | -26 | +6 | +1 | +2 | +11 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 663 | 574 | 124 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 69 | 134 | 2 | 66 | 13 | 216 | 302 | 268 | 571 | 52 | 272 | 20 | 10 | 261 | 63 | -29 | +8 | +6 | +6 | +14 | 0.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 214 | 188 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 62 | 1 | 28 | 2 | 160 | 248 | 191 | 439 | 32 | 224 | 29 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 228 | 199 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 61 | 2 | 33 | 10 | 221 | 314 | 236 | 550 | 15 | 312 | 27 | 11 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 171 | 149 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 45 | 2 | 21 | 5 | 255 | 339 | 295 | 635 | 40 | 347 | 26 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 378 | 319 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 52 | 129 | 1 | 49 | 11 | 213 | 325 | 276 | 601 | 63 | 340 | 34 | 14 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 585 | 520 | 103 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 57 | 132 | 2 | 52 | 7 | 198 | 280 | 250 | 530 | 52 | 253 | 23 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 78 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 246 | 370 | 262 | 632 | 16 | 326 | 19 | 15 | 286 | 80 | -2 | +1 | +2 | +1 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 92 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 232 | 300 | 402 | 702 | 171 | 254 | 22 | 9 | 306 | 94 | -1 | +1 | +3 | +3 | +2 | 1.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 232 | 208 | 50 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 68 | 2 | 36 | 6 | 240 | 307 | 293 | 600 | 53 | 333 | 29 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 493 | 431 | 91 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 99 | 2 | 49 | 10 | 211 | 295 | 251 | 545 | 39 | 267 | 20 | 10 | 251 | 56 | -26 | +6 | +1 | +2 | +11 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 214 | 188 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 62 | 1 | 28 | 2 | 160 | 248 | 191 | 439 | 32 | 234 | 29 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Marlins | — | 214 | 175 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 43 | 1 | 28 | 2 | 211 | 343 | 251 | 594 | 40 | 276 | 20 | 16 | 283 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 228 | 199 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 61 | 2 | 33 | 10 | 221 | 314 | 236 | 550 | 15 | 317 | 27 | 11 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 228 | 189 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 46 | 2 | 33 | 10 | 243 | 367 | 265 | 632 | 21 | 319 | 20 | 15 | 303 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 469 | 106 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 175 | 3 | 70 | 16 | 226 | 328 | 279 | 607 | 53 | 351 | 32 | 12 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 549 | 442 | 111 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 95 | 139 | 3 | 70 | 16 | 251 | 387 | 317 | 704 | 66 | 357 | 25 | 17 | 328 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 679 | 602 | 119 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 67 | 153 | 3 | 66 | 7 | 198 | 281 | 246 | 527 | 48 | 256 | 23 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 679 | 569 | 130 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 100 | 127 | 3 | 66 | 7 | 228 | 347 | 286 | 633 | 58 | 283 | 19 | 15 | 298 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 113 | 89 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 236 | 358 | 247 | 606 | 11 | 313 | 19 | 15 | 286 | 80 | -3 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 113 | 91 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 26 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 220 | 330 | 264 | 594 | 44 | 308 | 23 | 13 | 266 | 80 | -3 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 324 | 290 | 69 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 88 | 2 | 45 | 7 | 238 | 305 | 324 | 629 | 86 | 317 | 27 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 324 | 283 | 70 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 78 | 2 | 45 | 7 | 247 | 330 | 339 | 669 | 92 | 317 | 24 | 10 | 302 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 493 | 431 | 91 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 99 | 2 | 49 | 10 | 211 | 295 | 251 | 545 | 39 | 270 | 20 | 10 | 251 | 56 | -26 | +6 | +1 | +2 | +11 | -0.7 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB RAW | Washington Nationals | — | 493 | 431 | 90 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 49 | 99 | 2 | 49 | 10 | 209 | 293 | 244 | 536 | 35 | 267 | 20 | 10 | 249 | 56 | -26 | +6 | +1 | +2 | +11 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 214 | 190 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 62 | 1 | 28 | 2 | 158 | 248 | 189 | 437 | 32 | 224 | 29 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 228 | 199 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 61 | 2 | 33 | 10 | 221 | 314 | 236 | 550 | 15 | 312 | 27 | 11 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 473 | 106 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 175 | 3 | 70 | 16 | 224 | 328 | 277 | 605 | 53 | 342 | 32 | 12 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 679 | 604 | 119 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 67 | 153 | 3 | 66 | 7 | 197 | 281 | 245 | 526 | 48 | 253 | 23 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 113 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 221 | 358 | 232 | 590 | 11 | 326 | 19 | 15 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 324 | 293 | 69 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 88 | 2 | 45 | 7 | 235 | 305 | 321 | 626 | 85 | 311 | 27 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 493 | 439 | 91 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 99 | 2 | 49 | 10 | 207 | 295 | 246 | 541 | 39 | 267 | 20 | 10 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 113 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 221 | 358 | 232 | 590 | 11 | 326 | 19 | 15 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 324 | 293 | 69 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 88 | 2 | 45 | 7 | 235 | 305 | 321 | 626 | 85 | 311 | 27 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 493 | 439 | 91 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 99 | 2 | 49 | 10 | 207 | 295 | 246 | 541 | 39 | 267 | 20 | 10 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 100% | 420 | 373 | 83 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 87 | 2 | 43 | 7 | 222 | 304 | 322 | 626 | 99 | 266 | 21 | 10 | 286 | 79 | -10 | +6 | +2 | +1 | +9 | 1.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 100% | 396 | 352 | 79 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 82 | 2 | 40 | 7 | 222 | 304 | 319 | 623 | 97 | 265 | 21 | 10 | 284 | 79 | -10 | +5 | +2 | +1 | +9 | 0.7 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 92% | 391 | 347 | 77 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 81 | 2 | 40 | 6 | 221 | 303 | 319 | 622 | 98 | 265 | 21 | 10 | 284 | 78 | -10 | +6 | +2 | +1 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 92% | 382 | 339 | 74 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 80 | 2 | 36 | 6 | 220 | 301 | 315 | 616 | 95 | 264 | 21 | 10 | 282 | 77 | -11 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 92% | 368 | 327 | 71 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 78 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 217 | 299 | 308 | 607 | 91 | 263 | 21 | 10 | 278 | 74 | -11 | +4 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | WSH | 92% | 355 | 316 | 68 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 35 | 77 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 214 | 295 | 301 | 596 | 86 | 262 | 22 | 10 | 274 | 71 | -12 | +4 | -1 | +1 | +8 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 92% | 360 | 319 | 71 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 75 | 2 | 36 | 6 | 221 | 303 | 317 | 619 | 96 | 264 | 21 | 10 | 283 | 78 | -9 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +8 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 92% | 351 | 311 | 68 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 74 | 2 | 33 | 5 | 219 | 301 | 312 | 613 | 93 | 264 | 21 | 10 | 281 | 77 | -10 | +5 | +1 | +1 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 92% | 339 | 301 | 65 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 72 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 217 | 298 | 306 | 604 | 89 | 262 | 21 | 10 | 277 | 74 | -10 | +4 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | WSH | 92% | 327 | 291 | 63 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 71 | 1 | 24 | 4 | 214 | 295 | 298 | 593 | 85 | 261 | 22 | 10 | 273 | 71 | -11 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +7 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2040 | 1796 | 391 | 34 | 8 | 31 | 205 | 426 | 9 | 188 | 33 | 218 | 301 | 297 | 598 | 80 | 267 | 21 | 10 | 273 | 67 | -70 | +24 | +8 | +11 | +44 | 1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 572 | 125 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 65 | 136 | 3 | 60 | 11 | 219 | 302 | 301 | 602 | 82 | 267 | 21 | 10 | 273 | 67 | -22 | +8 | +2 | +4 | +14 | 0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4492 | 3949 | 848 | 80 | 20 | 49 | 460 | 1058 | 22 | 474 | 84 | 215 | 300 | 282 | 583 | 68 | 278 | 24 | 10 | 267 | 67 | -83 | +31 | +9 | +13 | +55 | 2.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 123 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 67 | 153 | 3 | 69 | 12 | 215 | 301 | 284 | 585 | 68 | 280 | 24 | 10 | 267 | 67 | -21 | +8 | +2 | +3 | +14 | 0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 232 PAwOBA .296 → .267 (−29)K% 25.0% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.028 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.78% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.07% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×1.017 | ×1.033 | 29.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×1.033 | 3.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.40% | ÷0.960 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .296 → .267; ISO .060 → .049; BABIP .343 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 585 PAwOBA .291 → .244 (−48)K% 18.3% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.29% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.87% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 9.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.02% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×1.027 | 21.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.87% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×1.027 | 2.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.097 | ×0.880 | ×1.017 | ×1.027 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.31% | ÷1.091 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .291 → .244; ISO .061 → .054; BABIP .275 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 378 PAwOBA .328 → .276 (−51)K% 27.2% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.25% | ÷1.011 | ×1.270 | — | — | 34.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.78% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 13.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.26% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.44% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 27.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.58% | ÷0.950 | ×0.810 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.068 | ×0.850 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.885 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.93% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 114, K 102, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .328 → .276; ISO .077 → .067; BABIP .365 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 171 PAwOBA .312 → .285 (−27)K% 21.1% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.04% | ÷1.021 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 9.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.25% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 30.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.66% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 93, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .312 → .285; ISO .042 → .040; BABIP .343 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AJupiter Hammerheads · 228 PAwOBA .297 → .256 (−41)K% 20.2% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.18% | ÷1.021 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.35% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 10.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.07% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 29.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.40% | ÷1.226 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 1.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.996 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.891 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 99, 2B 145, 3B 99, K 104, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .297 → .256; ISO .021 → .018; BABIP .319 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKGCL Marlins · 214 PAwOBA .280 → .203 (−77)K% 20.1% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.09% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 19.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .280 → .203; ISO .040 → .029; BABIP .276 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .