Leo Rivas — OGILVIE

Leo Rivas2B Seattle Mariners

Age 28 S/R 5'7" / 150 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 1.047 · Ctrl thru 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION175 act + 116 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 7179vR 98

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .329 / .317

PA116

HR2

SB6

K%27

BB%14

BABIP274

ISO113

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

905.0%

xwOBA

200.273

POWER35

Barrel%

102.2

Avg EV

1686.5

Bat Spd

1064.9

EYE60

Chase%

908.4%

SPEED55

Sprint

4727.4

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 275 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

178

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

243

314

▶▶R

ISO

024

085

▶▶R

BABIP

273

316

▶R

23.7%

27.0%

◀L

BB%

11.3%

16.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.047 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	276	229	46	6	5	1	21	76	17	21	12	201	315	284	598	83	287	28	8	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	276	213	55	8	7	1	37	53	17	21	12	258	408	376	784	117	329	19	13	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK	AZL Angels	—	235	204	45	6	2	1	22	56	4	26	8	221	309	284	593	64	299	24	9	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK	AZL Angels	—	235	190	55	8	3	1	36	39	4	26	8	289	413	379	792	89	360	17	15	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK	2 teams	—	299	245	57	8	3	2	41	62	7	19	1	233	358	314	673	82	299	21	14	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK	2 teams	—	299	227	65	11	4	2	59	44	7	19	1	286	447	396	844	110	342	15	20	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A	Burlington Bees	—	547	484	84	9	7	4	54	200	3	16	10	174	261	246	506	72	284	37	10	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A	Burlington Bees	—	547	454	106	16	7	4	84	138	3	16	10	233	357	326	683	93	325	25	15	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	2 teams	—	363	326	52	10	2	6	34	127	2	5	2	160	243	258	501	98	238	35	9	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	2 teams	—	363	313	71	14	5	6	47	94	2	5	2	227	331	361	693	134	305	26	13	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	226	197	48	4	3	0	25	54	2	9	5	244	335	294	629	51	333	24	11	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	226	190	52	6	3	0	32	45	2	9	5	274	384	337	721	63	356	20	14	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	2 teams	—	361	324	64	11	1	6	26	105	4	18	5	198	266	293	559	96	267	29	7	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	2 teams	—	361	311	71	13	1	7	39	81	4	18	5	228	322	344	666	116	282	22	11	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	436	361	86	11	2	7	54	106	7	50	10	238	348	338	686	100	307	24	12	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	436	329	84	11	2	5	86	89	7	50	10	255	419	347	766	91	324	20	20	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	3 teams	—	415	343	83	13	2	3	57	105	4	33	8	242	356	318	674	76	335	25	14	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	3 teams	—	415	320	81	16	2	4	80	84	4	33	8	253	408	353	762	100	326	20	19	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	410	334	86	9	2	8	61	95	6	30	3	257	382	368	750	111	333	23	15	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	410	313	93	10	2	12	82	83	6	30	3	297	451	457	908	160	367	20	20	403	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	MLB	SEA	—	175	138	20	2	1	1	28	51	6	5	1	145	314	196	510	51	218	29	16	253	52	-9	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.3
YTD	28	MLB	SEA	—	175	132	20	2	1	1	34	47	6	5	1	152	349	205	553	53	224	27	19	279	72	-6	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.1
ROS	28	MLB	SEA	100%	116	97	20	3	1	2	16	31	2	6	1	205	329	317	646	113	263	27	14	289	79	-3	+1	-0	+1	+3	0.2
ROS	28	MLB	SEA	100%	117	98	19	2	1	2	16	31	2	6	1	194	319	296	615	102	261	26	14	273	67	-4	+1	-0	+1	+3	0.1
FULL	28	MLB	SEA	—	292	236	39	4	2	3	44	82	8	11	2	165	316	237	553	72	235	28	15	261	58	-14	+1	-0	+2	+8	-0.3
TOT	28	MLB	SEA	—	291	235	40	5	2	3	44	82	8	11	2	170	320	246	566	76	242	28	15	268	63	-12	+1	-0	+2	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	SEA	82%	380	317	62	8	2	6	53	101	7	17	4	196	324	290	614	95	264	27	14	288	79	-9	+2	-3	+4	+11	0.5
2028	30	MLB	SEA	82%	380	317	62	8	2	6	53	102	7	15	4	196	324	290	614	95	262	27	14	285	77	-10	+1	-4	+4	+11	0.3
2027	29	MLB	SEA	82%	312	259	51	7	1	5	44	83	6	14	3	197	327	290	616	93	262	27	14	273	67	-12	+2	-2	+3	+9	-0.0
2028	30	MLB	SEA	82%	312	259	49	7	1	4	44	84	6	13	3	189	320	270	591	81	260	27	14	271	65	-12	+1	-3	+3	+9	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	938	779	158	19	4	13	134	246	16	42	7	203	332	288	619	85	276	26	14	281	73	-28	+6	-8	+14	+27	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	540	110	13	3	9	93	170	11	29	5	204	332	289	621	85	277	26	14	281	73	-20	+4	-5	+10	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	4444	3778	795	106	34	52	517	1220	72	265	73	210	317	298	615	87	292	27	12	278	71	-145	+24	-9	+45	+126	4.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	553	117	16	5	8	76	178	11	39	11	212	319	302	621	90	293	27	12	278	71	-21	+3	-1	+7	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	276	213	55	8	7	1	37	53	17	21	12	258	408	376	784	117	329	19	13	352	128	+9	-1	—	—	+8	1.6
2016	18	ROK	AZL Angels	—	235	190	55	8	3	1	36	39	4	26	8	289	413	379	792	89	360	17	15	358	132	+9	+2	—	—	+7	1.8
2017	19	A	Burlington Bees	—	116	90	24	5	0	0	20	22	3	8	1	267	416	322	738	56	348	19	17	343	121	+3	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2017	19	ROK	Orem Owlz	—	183	137	41	6	4	2	39	22	4	11	0	299	467	445	912	146	339	12	21	408	171	+15	+2	—	—	+5	2.2
2018	20	A	Burlington Bees	—	547	454	106	16	7	4	84	138	3	16	10	233	357	326	683	93	325	25	15	315	99	-0	-1	—	—	+15	1.5
2019	21	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	338	297	70	14	5	6	39	90	2	4	2	236	328	377	706	141	318	27	12	319	103	+1	+0	—	—	+10	1.1
2019	21	ROK	AZL Angels	—	25	16	1	0	0	0	8	4	0	1	0	62	375	62	438		83	16	32	259	57	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2021	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	226	190	52	6	3	0	32	45	2	9	5	274	384	337	721	63	356	20	14	333	113	+3	-0	—	—	+6	1.0
2022	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	164	140	34	7	0	2	23	46	0	8	0	243	350	336	685	93	348	28	14	316	100	-0	+2	—	—	+5	0.6
2022	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	197	171	37	6	1	5	16	35	4	10	5	216	298	351	649	135	237	18	8	287	77	-5	+0	—	—	+6	0.1
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	436	329	84	11	2	5	86	89	7	50	10	255	419	347	766	91	324	20	20	350	126	+13	+6	—	—	+12	3.2
2024	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	86	73	17	1	1	0	10	24	1	3	0	233	333	274	607	41	347	28	12	281	73	-3	+1	-2	+4	+2	0.3
2024	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	266	203	60	12	1	4	55	51	1	24	6	296	448	424	872	128	368	19	21	389	156	+17	+2	—	—	+8	2.7
2024	26	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	63	44	4	3	0	0	15	9	2	6	2	91	344	159	503	68	114	14	24	265	61	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	111	90	22	2	0	2	20	24	1	6	0	244	387	333	721	89	312	22	18	340	118	+2	+1	-0	+1	+3	0.8
2025	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	299	223	71	8	2	10	62	59	5	24	3	318	476	507	983	188	389	20	21	426	184	+28	+4	—	—	+8	4.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	197	163	39	3	1	2	30	48	2	9	0	239	364	307	671	67	327	24	15	314	99	-0	+2	-2	+6	+6	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	10	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	10	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,087	14	46	199	322	283	+7	-1	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	9	28	199	322	283	+4.4	-0.6	0.9	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leo Rivas (OGILVIE)	28	40	35	55	60	170/320/246	76	242	3	11	28%	15%	63	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler Wade 2023 · MLB	28	44→54	41→40	57→60	49	216/288/311	95	273	8	35	23%	9%	68	-0.5	227/294/306	79	301	6	35	25%	8%	69	-0.4	226/297/286	59	306	4	40	25%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Delino DeShields 2021 · MLB	28	49→55	40→45	57→65	51	233/306/326	93	302	7	27	24%	9%	79	+0.3	216/308/294	78	305	5	28	27%	11%	72	-0.2	207/307/267	61	307	3	31	30%	12%	63	-0.5
✕Kramer Robertson 2023 · AAA	28	43→51	44→45	54→55	50	211/304/325	114	268	12	21	24%	9%	79	+0.3	200/298/284	84	273	7	21	27%	10%	67	-0.5	173/285/221	48	247	3	23	28%	11%	45	-1.8
✕Elliot Johnson 2012 · MLB	28	46→53	45	52→60	42	231/279/357	126	295	13	22	26%	6%	76	+0.0	218/273/325	107	286	10	27	26%	7%	65	-0.7	206/264/302	96	270	8	29	26%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Cliff Pennington 2011 · MLB	27	51→55	40→45	59→55	53	242/311/346	104	286	6	27	17%	9%	85	+0.7	243/303/348	105	292	8	17	18%	8%	83	+0.6	240/301/334	94	290	7	14	19%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Roman Quinn 2022 · MLB	29	46→53	45	61→65	44	223/300/352	129	313	12	31	31%	8%	84	+0.6	206/300/330	124	345	11	25	39%	10%	79	+0.3	167/275/272	105	312	9	34	44%	11%	53	-0.4
✕Sam Haggerty 2022 · MLB	28	47→44	44→50	58→65	45	226/294/347	122	307	11	25	29%	8%	80	+0.4	250/324/395	145	318	12	35	24%	8%	105	+2.1	257/335/401	144	323	11	42	22%	9%	107	+1.2
✕Cesar Crespo 2007 · MLB	28	47→50	40	53→55	48	228/284/321	93	276	8	21	20%	7%	68	-0.5	225/277/311	86	282	7	15	21%	7%	63	-0.9	223/273/284	61	280	4	14	21%	6%	50	-1.1
✕Riley Unroe 2023 · AAA	27	46→48	45→50	54→55	49	228/299/352	124	289	12	20	25%	9%	83	+0.6	228/305/365	137	299	15	23	27%	10%	89	+1.0	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Jeff Duncan 2007 · MLB	28	50→46	42→45	54→60	46	239/303/343	103	307	10	22	24%	7%	82	+0.5	227/292/311	84	297	7	18	24%	7%	69	-0.4	199/273/205	6	269	0	18	24%	9%	31	-0.8
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB	28	45→49	42→45	59→60	40	217/273/330	112	295	9	29	29%	6%	66	-0.6	207/268/318	111	304	11	20	33%	6%	62	-0.9	148/223/226	79	244	8	18	40%	7%	18	-1.1
✕Tyler Saladino 2016 · MLB	27	48→47	41→45	59→55	45	233/284/335	102	283	9	25	21%	6%	72	-0.2	232/287/337	105	290	10	19	23%	6%	73	-0.1	225/286/324	99	288	10	17	24%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Jonathan Davis 2020 · MLB	28	46→52	44→45	53→55	46	224/304/346	122	289	11	19	25%	7%	85	+0.7	215/309/329	114	290	11	22	27%	9%	82	+0.5	224/306/341	117	313	11	22	29%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Billy Hamilton 2021 · MLB	30	46→56	39→40	59→70	49	220/286/306	86	285	5	34	24%	8%	65	-0.7	196/250/295	99	293	8	34	33%	7%	47	-1.9	161/212/239	78	258	4	47	37%	6%	14	-0.9
✕Zach Sorensen 2006 · MLB	29	51	38→30	52→60	47	240/296/319	80	302	6	25	22%	7%	72	-0.2	231/293/313	82	297	7	15	23%	8%	70	-0.3	226/287/284	57	295	4	10	23%	8%	58	-0.5
✕Pedro Florimón 2015 · MLB	28	43→52	41→45	54→55	42	211/263/312	101	283	8	19	28%	6%	56	-1.3	213/263/321	108	305	9	18	31%	6%	59	-1.1	219/275/335	116	325	10	11	34%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Tony Gwynn Jr. 2011 · MLB	28	51→57	38→40	56→60	56	239/314/317	79	277	5	24	15%	10%	80	+0.4	241/302/325	84	295	4	26	18%	8%	76	+0.1	244/299/315	71	304	2	27	19%	7%	68	-0.3
✕Anthony Jackson 2012 · AA	28	52→56	38→40	55	48	248/306/328	80	299	6	23	19%	7%	79	+0.3	235/303/328	93	294	8	21	21%	8%	79	+0.3	217/300/283	66	272	5	31	20%	9%	64	-0.3
✕Nook Logan 2007 · MLB	27	51	37→40	57→60	47	240/293/319	79	300	4	27	21%	7%	71	-0.3	244/292/335	91	324	5	27	24%	6%	75	-0.0	260/300/338	78	351	0	39	25%	5%	75	-0.0
✕Nick Punto 2006 · MLB	28	49→59	41→40	50→55	51	235/299/333	98	284	8	17	20%	9%	78	+0.2	249/317/334	85	297	4	18	16%	9%	85	+0.7	252/322/329	77	299	2	20	15%	9%	83	+0.5