Leo Rivas — OGILVIE

Leo Rivas2B Seattle Mariners

Age 28 S/R 5'7" / 150 lbs MLB HR +3% Svc 1.047 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.8 · 2027

wRC+†vL 6572vR 91

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .330 / .314

PA350

HR6

SB15

K%24

BB%14

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

35→35

SPD

55→55

EYE

71↘60

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.047 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
2029	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.2M
2030	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$5M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	17	ROK	DSL Angels	276	229	46	6	5	1	21	76	17	21	12	.201	.315	.284	.598	.083	.287	28	8	.265	61	-12	-1	+0	+3	+8	-0.2
2016	18	ROK	AZL Angels	235	204	45	6	2	1	22	56	4	26	8	.221	.309	.284	.593	.064	.299	24	9	.261	58	-11	+2	+0	+3	+7	0.0
2017	19	ROK	2 teams	299	247	57	8	3	2	39	60	7	19	1	.231	.352	.312	.663	.081	.293	20	13	.299	87	-4	+3	+0	+3	+8	1.1
2018	20	A	Burlington Bees	547	481	87	10	7	3	57	182	3	16	10	.181	.272	.249	.521	.069	.282	33	10	.240	42	-36	-1	+0	+6	+15	-1.6
2019	21	A+	2 teams	363	327	54	10	3	5	33	127	2	5	2	.165	.246	.260	.506	.095	.251	35	9	.227	32	-28	+0	+0	+4	+10	-1.4
2021	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	226	199	48	5	3	0	23	56	2	9	5	.241	.326	.296	.622	.055	.333	25	10	.281	73	-7	-0	+0	+2	+6	0.2
2022	24	AA	2 teams	361	324	64	11	1	6	26	102	4	18	5	.198	.266	.293	.559	.096	.264	28	7	.248	48	-21	+2	+0	+4	+10	-0.5
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	436	357	83	10	2	6	58	111	7	50	10	.232	.351	.322	.673	.090	.309	25	13	.302	89	-5	+6	+0	+5	+12	1.8
2024	26	AAA	3 teams	415	343	83	13	2	3	57	105	4	33	8	.242	.356	.318	.674	.076	.335	25	14	.306	92	-4	+3	-2	+4	+12	1.5
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	410	333	87	9	2	9	62	97	6	30	3	.261	.387	.381	.768	.120	.339	24	15	.341	119	+9	+5	-0	+1	+12	2.7
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	72	60	9	1	1	0	10	23	1	0	0	.150	.282	.200	.482	.050	.237	32	14	.233	36	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.3
ROS	28	MLB	SEA	278	235	48	6	2	4	38	71	3	15	3	.204	.322	.298	.620	.094	.273	26	14	.292	82	-6	+2	+0	+3	+8	0.7
TOT	28	MLB	SEA	350	295	57	7	3	4	48	94	4	15	3	.193	.314	.278	.592	.085	.266	27	14	.280	72	-11	+2	+0	+3	+10	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	29	MLB	SEA	380	321	65	8	2	6	52	79	4	19	4	.202	.321	.296	.617	.093	.250	21	14	.290	80	-9	+2	-1	+4	+11	0.8
2028	30	MLB	SEA	380	321	64	8	2	5	52	80	4	18	4	.199	.318	.283	.602	.084	.249	21	14	.287	78	-10	+2	-2	+4	+11	0.6
2029	31	MLB	SEA	365	308	61	7	2	5	50	79	4	16	3	.198	.318	.282	.600	.084	.247	22	14	.283	75	-10	+2	-2	+4	+10	0.4
2030	32	MLB	SEA	346	291	57	7	2	4	48	77	4	14	3	.196	.318	.275	.593	.079	.245	22	14	.278	71	-11	+2	-3	+4	+10	0.1
2031	33	MLB	SEA	316	267	52	6	2	4	43	72	3	11	2	.195	.313	.277	.590	.082	.243	23	14	.273	67	-12	+1	-4	+3	+9	-0.2
2032	34	MLB	SEA	272	230	43	5	1	3	37	64	3	9	1	.187	.307	.257	.564	.070	.241	24	14	.266	62	-12	+1	-5	+3	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5905	5017	1044	135	43	67	718	1494	81	329	84	.208	.317	.292	.609	.084	.279	25	12	.279	72	-189	+32	-18	+60	+167	5.4
/ 162G	—			650	552	115	15	5	7	79	164	9	36	9	.208	.317	.292	.609	.083	.280	25	12	.279	72	-21	+4	-2	+7	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	17	ROK	DSL Angels	276	213	55	8	7	1	37	53	17	21	12	.258	.408	.376	.784	.117	.329	19	13	.352	128	+9	-1	—	—	+8	1.6
2016	18	ROK	AZL Angels	235	190	55	8	3	1	36	39	4	26	8	.289	.413	.379	.792	.089	.360	17	15	.358	132	+9	+2	—	—	+7	1.8
2017	19	A	Burlington Bees	116	90	24	5	0	0	20	22	3	8	1	.267	.416	.322	.738	.056	.348	19	17	.343	121	+3	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2017	19	ROK	Orem Owlz	183	137	41	6	4	2	39	22	4	11	0	.299	.467	.445	.912	.146	.339	12	21	.408	171	+15	+2	—	—	+5	2.2
2018	20	A	Burlington Bees	547	454	106	16	7	4	84	138	3	16	10	.233	.357	.326	.683	.093	.325	25	15	.315	99	-0	-1	—	—	+15	1.5
2019	21	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	338	297	70	14	5	6	39	90	2	4	2	.236	.328	.377	.706	.141	.318	27	12	.319	103	+1	+0	—	—	+10	1.1
2019	21	ROK	AZL Angels	25	16	1	0	0	0	8	4	0	1	0	.062	.375	.062	.438	.000	.083	16	32	.259	57	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2021	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	226	190	52	6	3	0	32	45	2	9	5	.274	.384	.337	.721	.063	.356	20	14	.333	113	+3	-0	—	—	+6	1.0
2022	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	164	140	34	7	0	2	23	46	0	8	0	.243	.350	.336	.685	.093	.348	28	14	.316	100	-0	+2	—	—	+5	0.6
2022	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	197	171	37	6	1	5	16	35	4	10	5	.216	.298	.351	.649	.135	.237	18	8	.287	77	-5	+0	—	—	+6	0.1
2023	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	436	329	84	11	2	5	86	89	7	50	10	.255	.419	.347	.766	.091	.324	20	20	.350	126	+13	+6	—	—	+12	3.2
2024	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	86	73	17	1	1	0	10	24	1	3	0	.233	.333	.274	.607	.041	.347	28	12	.281	73	-3	+1	-2	+4	+2	0.3
2024	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	266	203	60	12	1	4	55	51	1	24	6	.296	.448	.424	.872	.128	.368	19	21	.389	156	+17	+2	—	—	+8	2.7
2024	26	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	63	44	4	3	0	0	15	9	2	6	2	.091	.344	.159	.503	.068	.114	14	24	.265	61	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	111	90	22	2	0	2	20	24	1	6	0	.244	.387	.333	.721	.089	.312	22	18	.340	118	+2	+1	-0	+1	+3	0.8
2025	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	299	223	71	8	2	10	62	59	5	24	3	.318	.476	.507	.983	.188	.389	20	21	.426	184	+28	+4	—	—	+8	4.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			197	163	39	3	1	2	30	48	2	9	0	.239	.364	.307	.671	.067	.327	24	15	.314	99	-0	+2	-2	+6	+6	1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leo Rivas (OGILVIE)	28	40	35	55	60	.204/.323/.298	.094	.251	5	18	21%	14%	82	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cliff Pennington 2011 · MLB	27	50→55	40→45	58→55	54	.236/.307/.333	.096	.280	6	26	17%	9%	81	+0.4	.241/.301/.344	.103	.289	8	18	18%	8%	82	+0.5	.239/.300/.331	.092	.289	7	14	19%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Tyler Wade 2023 · MLB	28	44→54	41→45	57→60	50	.214/.290/.309	.095	.272	8	34	23%	9%	69	-0.4	.228/.296/.310	.082	.303	6	36	25%	8%	71	-0.3	.228/.300/.289	.061	.309	4	40	25%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Delino DeShields 2021 · MLB	28	49→53	39→45	57→65	51	.230/.306/.317	.088	.297	6	28	23%	10%	77	+0.1	.217/.307/.298	.081	.305	6	28	28%	11%	73	-0.1	.205/.307/.268	.062	.305	4	31	30%	12%	62	-0.5
✕Riley Unroe 2023 · AAA	27	45→47	44→45	54→55	48	.220/.290/.337	.117	.282	11	19	26%	8%	76	+0.0	.221/.300/.344	.123	.297	13	23	28%	10%	82	+0.5	.221/.306/.342	.121	.297	13	26	28%	10%	80	+0.2
✕Kramer Robertson 2023 · AAA	28	45→51	44→45	54→55	51	.219/.313/.337	.118	.275	12	21	24%	10%	86	+0.8	.204/.303/.288	.084	.276	7	21	26%	10%	70	-0.3	.178/.290/.225	.047	.253	3	23	27%	11%	47	-1.6
✕Cesar Crespo 2006 · MLB	27	47→50	43→40	57→55	47	.232/.283/.349	.117	.273	10	27	19%	6%	75	-0.0	.227/.281/.314	.087	.281	7	18	21%	7%	65	-0.7	.222/.278/.287	.065	.278	5	15	21%	7%	54	-1.1
✕Tony Gwynn Jr. 2011 · MLB	28	51→57	37→40	56→60	55	.239/.311/.315	.075	.279	5	24	16%	9%	78	+0.2	.239/.301/.323	.084	.291	4	26	18%	8%	76	+0.0	.242/.298/.311	.070	.300	2	27	19%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Tyler Saladino 2016 · MLB	27	47→46	42→45	58→55	45	.229/.281/.331	.102	.277	9	25	21%	6%	69	-0.4	.235/.288/.341	.106	.290	10	20	22%	6%	76	+0.0	.228/.288/.326	.099	.289	10	17	24%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Anthony Jackson 2012 · AA	28	49→55	38→40	56→55	48	.234/.295/.313	.079	.280	5	23	18%	7%	71	-0.3	.233/.301/.325	.092	.289	8	21	21%	8%	77	+0.1	.212/.295/.280	.067	.266	5	31	20%	9%	61	-0.3
✕José Caballero 2023 · AA	26	45	46→45	58→70	58	.222/.330/.350	.129	.281	13	31	24%	13%	97	+1.5	.227/.324/.345	.118	.296	11	48	25%	10%	93	+1.3	.229/.321/.344	.115	.305	10	63	26%	9%	87	+0.6
✕Garrett Hampson 2023 · MLB	28	43→53	44→45	55→60	46	.215/.277/.330	.116	.278	11	21	26%	8%	68	-0.5	.236/.300/.330	.094	.316	6	18	25%	8%	77	+0.1	.253/.313/.333	.080	.340	3	18	24%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Flavio Romero 2008 · AAA	28	50→57	43→45	54→60	55	.241/.325/.352	.111	.293	10	28	20%	10%	94	+1.3	.236/.324/.316	.080	.291	6	21	19%	11%	85	+0.7	.258/.350/.304	.046	.320	2	22	18%	12%	92	+0.6
✕Adrian Brown 2003 · MLB	29	52→51	41→45	53→55	54	.251/.314/.358	.108	.278	8	21	13%	8%	91	+1.1	.230/.296/.337	.107	.266	8	21	16%	8%	78	+0.2	.242/.306/.333	.091	.281	6	28	15%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Zach Sorensen 2006 · MLB	29	50	39→30	51→60	47	.237/.295/.320	.083	.300	6	24	22%	7%	72	-0.2	.232/.293/.312	.080	.298	6	16	23%	8%	69	-0.4	.226/.287/.284	.057	.295	4	10	23%	8%	58	-0.5
✕Sam Haggerty 2022 · MLB	28	48→43	43→50	59→65	45	.226/.296/.342	.115	.316	9	25	30%	8%	79	+0.3	.245/.319/.388	.143	.313	13	35	24%	8%	101	+1.8	.253/.332/.394	.141	.318	11	42	22%	9%	103	+1.1
✕Everth Cabrera 2015 · MLB	28	53→59	38→40	60→65	49	.250/.309/.330	.080	.312	5	39	21%	8%	81	+0.4	.221/.274/.289	.068	.277	5	22	21%	6%	56	-1.3	.193/.245/.222	.029	.248	1	22	21%	6%	23	-1.3
✕Shawn O'Malley 2016 · MLB	28	53→58	40	59→60	47	.251/.307/.349	.098	.303	6	24	19%	6%	85	+0.7	.241/.300/.340	.099	.307	7	17	22%	7%	79	+0.3	.234/.294/.323	.089	.306	6	12	24%	7%	69	-0.1
✕Greg Allen 2021 · MLB	28	49→56	43→45	56→65	43	.237/.301/.350	.113	.296	9	25	23%	6%	84	+0.6	.242/.332/.365	.123	.312	10	36	24%	7%	102	+1.8	.240/.342/.356	.116	.319	9	52	25%	7%	100	+0.7
✕Alfredo Amezaga 2007 · MLB	29	54→56	39→40	52→55	51	.255/.315/.344	.089	.291	7	26	15%	7%	87	+0.8	.255/.314/.351	.096	.291	5	18	13%	7%	88	+0.9	.274/.323/.358	.084	.321	6	6	16%	6%	92	+0.6
✕Nick Franklin 2019 · MLB	28	47→49	46→50	54→50	48	.234/.295/.364	.130	.280	13	16	21%	7%	85	+0.7	.206/.279/.324	.118	.266	11	11	25%	8%	68	-0.5	.173/.252/.275	.102	.229	8	8	27%	9%	42	-1.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)