Riley Unroe

2B Charlotte Knights

Age 31 S/R 5'10" / 180 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAA/INTL2 orgs	404	.247/.351/.387	9	19	69	—	.218/.295/.327
2025	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	456	.244/.366/.354	5	19	76	—	.246/.335/.351
2026	30	AAACWS	339	.214/.347/.421	14	9	57	—	.165/.264/.303
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBCWS	16	.209/.299/.342	0	0	82	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	32	MLBCWS	46	.206/.294/.332	1	1	78	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

BB%87

Chase%85

Speed82

Max EV26

Whiff%22

Z-Con%21

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsAndy Burns (age 31) · Tim Torres (age 32) · Garrett Stubbs (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .299 / .342

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%12

BABIP283

ISO71

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	17	ROK	GCL Rays	—	202	167	41	7	3	1	33	43	2	7	2	246	376	341	718	96	325	21	16	334	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK	Princeton Rays	—	276	243	55	11	2	3	29	47	3	7	5	226	316	325	641	99	268	17	11	295	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	501	439	112	13	2	4	51	99	2	13	9	255	335	321	657	66	318	20	10	298	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	249	211	67	9	3	0	31	37	0	14	4	318	405	389	794	71	381	15	12	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	433	369	81	12	3	4	47	91	4	18	10	220	314	301	615	81	276	21	11	278	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	298	245	55	10	3	2	41	69	2	6	5	224	340	314	655	90	299	23	14	296	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	81	71	10	3	1	1	7	26	1	3	0	141	228	254	481	113	205	32	9	218	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	20	19	5	2	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	263	300	368	668	105	357	25	5	299	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	402	345	78	9	2	4	52	96	2	10	9	226	331	299	629	72	300	24	13	293	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	155	131	32	7	2	7	19	38	2	2	0	244	349	489	837	244	291	25	12	361	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	48	41	7	1	0	1	7	11	0	1	1	171	292	268	560	98	207	23	15	266	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	303	270	77	12	2	5	26	61	2	9	2	285	352	400	752	115	350	20	9	334	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	162	138	42	9	1	3	20	34	3	4	2	304	404	449	853	145	382	21	12	382	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	18	17	3	1	1	0	1	3	0	1	1	176	222	353	575	176	214	17	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	38	33	2	0	0	0	5	8	0	1	0	61	184	61	245		80	21	13	139	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	97	88	23	3	2	2	6	19	2	1	4	261	323	409	732	148	313	20	6	323	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	434	368	97	18	4	8	59	85	3	25	5	264	370	399	769	136	320	20	14	346	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	23	21	4	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	190	261	238	499	48	222	13	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	179	144	37	8	2	5	34	37	0	8	1	257	399	444	843	188	314	21	19	377	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	206	176	43	5	0	5	26	52	2	11	4	244	348	358	706	114	317	25	13	322	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	143	116	31	4	0	0	23	25	1	15	0	267	393	302	695	34	333	17	16	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	294	243	66	16	0	6	41	77	1	18	4	272	379	412	790	140	373	26	14	348	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	110	93	17	2	1	3	10	11	2	1	2	183	276	323	599	140	177	10	9	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	242	198	55	12	1	4	39	48	2	12	1	278	402	409	811	131	342	20	16	365	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	214	158	32	6	2	1	26	33	1	7	3	203	319	285	604	82	242	15	12	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	339	280	60	10	3	14	51	100	6	9	4	214	347	421	769	207	277	29	15	344	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	17	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	202	179	32	5	2	1	21	62	2	7	2	179	272	246	518	67	263	31	10	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	276	253	43	8	1	2	19	67	3	7	5	170	236	233	470	63	223	24	7	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	501	456	102	10	2	3	34	139	2	13	9	224	280	274	555	50	303	28	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	433	381	69	9	2	3	35	133	4	18	10	181	257	239	496	58	251	31	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	298	257	55	10	3	2	29	85	2	6	5	214	299	300	598	86	285	29	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	81	72	9	3	1	1	6	36	1	3	0	125	203	236	439	111	188	44	7	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	20	19	3	1	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	158	200	211	411	53	306	30	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	402	362	74	9	2	3	35	116	2	10	9	204	278	265	543	61	286	29	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	48	43	7	1	0	1	5	14	0	1	1	163	250	256	506	93	193	29	10	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	303	278	65	11	2	4	18	76	2	9	2	234	285	331	616	97	298	25	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Florida Fire Frogs	—	162	145	35	7	1	3	13	47	3	4	2	241	317	366	682	124	322	29	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	38	35	2	0	0	0	3	10	0	1	0	57	132	57	189		75	26	8	106	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	97	90	22	3	2	2	4	23	2	1	4	244	292	389	681	144	289	24	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	434	386	86	15	3	7	41	102	3	25	5	223	302	332	634	109	276	24	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	179	155	34	7	2	3	23	43	0	8	1	219	320	348	669	129	286	24	13	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	206	185	37	4	0	5	17	61	2	11	4	200	275	303	577	103	257	30	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	294	257	56	13	0	5	27	91	1	18	4	218	295	327	622	109	297	31	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	242	211	52	11	1	3	26	54	2	12	1	246	335	351	685	104	307	22	11	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	339	297	49	8	3	9	34	120	6	9	4	165	264	303	567	138	231	35	10	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	202	179	32	5	2	1	21	62	2	7	2	179	272	246	518	67	267	31	10	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	—	202	167	41	7	3	1	33	43	2	7	2	246	376	341	718	96	325	21	16	334	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	276	253	43	8	1	2	19	67	3	7	5	170	236	233	470	63	222	24	7	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	—	276	243	55	11	2	3	29	47	3	7	5	226	316	325	641	99	268	17	11	295	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	750	681	153	15	3	4	51	209	2	27	13	225	281	273	554	48	314	28	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	750	650	179	22	5	4	82	136	2	27	13	275	358	343	701	68	339	18	11	316	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	433	381	69	9	2	3	35	133	4	18	10	181	257	239	496	58	264	31	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+ RAW	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	433	369	81	12	3	4	47	91	4	18	10	220	314	301	615	81	276	21	11	278	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	379	330	63	13	3	3	34	121	3	9	5	191	272	276	548	85	287	32	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	379	316	65	13	4	3	48	95	3	9	5	206	316	301	617	95	281	25	13	279	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	577	518	108	14	3	5	49	167	4	13	9	208	282	276	558	68	296	29	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	577	495	115	18	4	11	72	139	4	13	9	232	335	352	686	119	300	24	12	312	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	513	466	106	19	3	8	36	137	5	14	5	227	290	333	623	105	302	27	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	513	449	126	22	3	9	53	106	5	14	5	281	363	403	766	122	347	21	10	343	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL MLE	Brisbane Bandits	—	18	17	3	1	1	0	1	3	0	1	1	176	222	353	575	176	214	17	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL RAW	Brisbane Bandits	—	18	17	3	1	1	0	1	3	0	1	1	176	222	353	575	176	214	17	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	135	125	23	3	2	2	7	33	2	2	4	184	239	288	527	104	233	24	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	135	121	25	3	2	2	11	27	2	2	4	207	284	314	598	107	250	20	8	272	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	457	407	90	16	3	7	43	107	3	25	5	221	300	327	627	106	280	23	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	457	389	101	19	4	8	61	88	3	25	5	260	364	391	755	131	314	19	13	341	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA MLE	3 teams	—	528	464	98	16	3	11	55	143	3	34	5	211	299	330	629	119	278	27	10	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA RAW	3 teams	—	528	436	111	17	2	10	83	114	3	34	5	255	377	372	749	117	321	22	16	341	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	404	349	78	18	0	8	38	124	3	19	6	223	305	344	649	120	321	31	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	404	336	83	18	1	9	51	88	3	19	6	247	351	387	738	140	308	22	13	324	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	456	371	98	20	2	6	50	101	3	19	4	264	356	377	733	113	339	22	11	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	456	356	87	18	3	5	65	81	3	19	4	244	366	354	719	110	296	18	14	309	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	339	297	49	8	3	9	34	120	6	9	4	165	264	303	567	138	238	35	10	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	339	280	60	10	3	14	51	100	6	9	4	214	347	421	769	207	277	29	15	344	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	202	177	32	5	2	1	21	62	2	7	2	181	272	249	521	68	263	31	10	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	276	252	43	8	1	2	19	67	3	7	5	171	236	234	470	63	223	24	7	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	750	691	153	15	3	4	51	209	2	27	13	221	281	269	550	48	303	28	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	433	391	69	9	2	3	35	133	4	18	10	176	257	233	490	56	251	31	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	379	339	63	13	3	3	34	121	3	9	5	186	272	268	541	83	264	32	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	577	519	108	14	3	5	49	167	4	13	9	208	282	276	557	67	287	29	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	513	467	106	19	3	8	36	137	5	14	5	227	290	332	622	105	296	27	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	135	125	23	3	2	2	7	33	2	2	4	184	239	288	527	104	229	24	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	457	408	90	16	3	7	43	107	3	25	5	221	300	326	626	105	276	23	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA MLE	3 teams	—	528	465	98	16	3	11	55	143	3	34	5	211	299	329	628	118	270	27	10	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	404	360	78	18	0	8	38	124	3	19	6	217	305	333	638	117	297	31	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	456	400	98	20	2	6	50	101	3	19	4	245	356	350	706	105	307	22	11	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	339	296	49	8	3	9	34	120	6	9	4	166	264	304	568	139	231	35	10	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	404	360	78	18	0	8	38	124	3	19	6	217	305	333	638	117	297	31	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	456	400	98	20	2	6	50	101	3	19	4	245	356	350	706	105	307	22	11	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	339	296	49	8	3	9	34	120	6	9	4	166	264	304	568	139	231	35	10	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CWS	10%	339	298	62	12	2	8	34	100	4	10	3	208	298	339	637	131	282	29	10	289	82	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	CWS	10%	16	14	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	209	299	342	641	132	283	31	12	290	82	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CWS	27%	169	148	31	6	1	4	17	50	2	3	1	205	293	330	623	125	278	30	10	283	78	-4	+0	-4	+1	+4	-0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	CWS	27%	46	40	8	2	0	1	5	14	1	1	0	206	294	332	626	127	279	30	11	284	78	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	46	40	8	2	0	1	5	14	1	1	0	200	304	325	629	125	280	30	11	284	61	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	113	28	0	14	71	198	14	14	0	200	305	324	629	124	280	30	11	284	61	-17	+3	-13	+2	+14	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5791	5122	1073	176	33	77	506	1623	47	212	80	209	287	302	588	92	288	28	9	258	61	-8	+1	-4	+1	+7	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	121	20	4	9	57	182	5	24	9	210	287	306	593	96	289	28	9	258	61	-16	+2	-7	+2	+14	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 339 PAwOBA .336 → .252 (−83)K% 29.5% → 35.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.50%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	35.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.04%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	9.99%
HBP% /PA	1.77%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.60%
Singles /BIP	18.33%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.977	×0.962	16.03%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.977	×0.962	4.34%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.977	×0.962	1.52%
Home runs /BIP	7.78%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	5.24%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .336 → .252; ISO .207 → .148; BABIP .277 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 242 PAwOBA .361 → .310 (−51)K% 19.8% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.83%	÷1.073	×1.200	—	—	22.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.12%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×0.972	10.94%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.76%
Singles /BIP	25.33%	÷0.993	×0.930	×1.004	×0.972	23.14%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷0.953	×0.830	×1.004	×0.972	6.80%
Triples /BIP	0.67%	÷0.905	×0.970	×1.004	×0.972	0.70%
Home runs /BIP	2.67%	÷0.872	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.08%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .361 → .310; ISO .131 → .117; BABIP .342 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 294 PAwOBA .340 → .273 (−67)K% 26.2% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.19%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	30.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.95%	÷1.016	×0.690	—	×0.982	9.30%
HBP% /PA	0.34%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.31%
Singles /BIP	26.51%	÷1.117	×0.930	×0.993	×0.982	21.52%
Doubles /BIP	9.64%	÷1.049	×0.830	×0.993	×0.982	7.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.070	×0.970	×0.993	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.61%	÷0.792	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.14%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .340 → .273; ISO .140 → .122; BABIP .373 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAArkansas Travelers · 206 PAwOBA .315 → .251 (−65)K% 25.2% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.24%	÷1.041	×1.220	—	—	29.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.62%	÷1.046	×0.700	—	×0.968	8.17%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.870	—	×0.968	0.82%
Singles /BIP	26.61%	÷1.033	×0.920	×0.950	×0.968	21.80%
Doubles /BIP	4.03%	÷0.983	×0.840	×0.950	×0.968	3.17%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.103	×0.940	×0.950	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.03%	÷0.853	×0.800	—	×0.968	3.66%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 121, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .315 → .251; ISO .114 → .102; BABIP .317 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 179 PAwOBA .368 → .302 (−67)K% 20.7% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.67%	÷1.024	×1.200	—	—	24.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.99%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×0.992	12.84%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.56%	÷0.989	×0.930	×1.002	×0.992	19.22%
Doubles /BIP	7.48%	÷0.940	×0.830	×1.002	×0.992	6.56%
Triples /BIP	1.87%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.002	×0.992	2.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.67%	÷1.157	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.80%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .368 → .302; ISO .188 → .148; BABIP .314 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAArkansas Travelers · 434 PAwOBA .340 → .281 (−59)K% 19.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.59%	÷1.015	×1.220	—	—	23.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.59%	÷0.976	×0.700	—	×0.978	9.53%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.870	—	×0.978	0.59%
Singles /BIP	23.67%	÷0.985	×0.920	×0.972	×0.978	21.02%
Doubles /BIP	6.36%	÷0.987	×0.840	×0.972	×0.978	5.15%
Triples /BIP	1.41%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.972	×0.978	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	2.83%	÷0.909	×0.800	—	×0.978	2.43%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 103, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .340 → .281; ISO .136 → .115; BABIP .320 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMississippi Braves · 97 PAwOBA .315 → .274 (−40)K% 19.6% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.59%	÷0.998	×1.220	—	—	23.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.19%	÷1.106	×0.690	—	×0.988	3.81%
HBP% /PA	2.06%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	1.73%
Singles /BIP	23.19%	÷1.023	×0.940	×1.016	×0.988	21.39%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷0.999	×0.870	×1.016	×0.988	3.80%
Triples /BIP	2.90%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.016	×0.988	2.97%
Home runs /BIP	2.90%	÷0.861	×0.780	—	×0.988	2.59%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 100, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .315 → .274; ISO .148 → .136; BABIP .313 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 38 PAwOBA .137 → .106 (−31)K% 21.1% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.05%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	25.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.16%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.018	9.12%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.011	×0.930	—	×1.018	7.49%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.039	×0.830	—	×1.018	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .137 → .106; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .080 → .075. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Riley Unroe (OGILVIE)	31	55	45	55	60	206/296/336	129	282	4	5	30%	10%	82	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andy Burns 2022 · MLB	31	43→53	47→50	51→55	51	217/297/356	140	273	15	15	25%	10%	86	+0.3	203/274/313	110	283	11	12	30%	9%	68	-1.0	174/245/259	85	244	9	8	31%	8%	42	-1.6
✕Tim Torres 2016 · AAA	32	47→49	43→45	55	44	225/288/341	116	316	10	16	31%	8%	78	-0.3	244/307/369	125	323	12	19	26%	8%	92	+0.7	252/315/373	121	327	12	23	25%	8%	95	+0.4
✕Garrett Stubbs 2024 · MLB	31	47	45	54→50	51	229/307/352	123	286	12	11	24%	9%	88	+0.4	218/290/318	100	282	10	12	25%	8%	74	-0.5	204/276/286	82	265	9	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Carlos Colmenares 2017 · AAA	31	51→54	46→40	57→50	45	250/299/393	143	309	11	16	22%	6%	94	+0.9	235/282/344	109	284	9	15	20%	6%	76	-0.4	243/277/319	77	288	3	17	16%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Niko Goodrum 2023 · MLB	31	43→52	46→55	53→55	47	210/293/337	127	313	13	18	35%	10%	80	-0.2	227/316/347	120	315	12	14	29%	11%	91	+0.6	228/321/339	111	310	11	14	27%	12%	88	+0.2
✕Jonathan Davis 2024 · MLB	32	46→52	44→45	55	48	224/301/347	123	296	11	21	27%	9%	85	+0.2	217/291/331	114	310	10	14	31%	8%	78	-0.3	188/273/268	80	289	6	14	34%	8%	53	-1.0
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2019 · MLB	32	46→50	46→45	56→60	45	228/288/361	133	290	14	23	26%	7%	83	+0.1	198/263/321	123	283	14	16	33%	7%	65	-1.2	148/216/240	92	221	11	15	37%	6%	28	-2.4
✕Jason Pridie 2015 · AAA	31	45→55	45→50	55	42	225/269/346	121	280	13	19	25%	6%	72	-0.7	237/286/384	147	290	17	19	24%	6%	87	+0.4	243/292/403	159	292	20	19	24%	6%	93	+0.8
✕Eddy Alvarez 2021 · MLB	31	47→54	46→50	52→55	44	230/294/367	137	304	13	16	28%	7%	87	+0.4	242/324/383	141	319	14	15	27%	8%	102	+1.5	237/326/375	138	315	14	18	27%	8%	99	+0.5
✕Val Majewski 2012 · AAA	31	46→54	46→45	50	46	231/289/361	130	284	14	11	24%	7%	83	+0.1	217/268/315	98	265	7	9	20%	6%	64	-1.3	196/241/265	68	238	1	5	17%	5%	40	-1.4
✕Andrew Beattie 2008 · AAA	30	44→51	47→45	46→50	47	223/290/358	135	284	15	10	27%	8%	83	+0.1	231/282/354	123	292	13	13	24%	7%	79	-0.2	235/280/345	110	294	10	14	23%	6%	74	-0.5
✕Shawn O'Malley 2018 · MLB	30	48→58	41→40	52→60	47	232/296/334	102	292	8	16	23%	7%	80	-0.2	226/278/328	102	289	9	11	24%	6%	71	-0.8	230/263/298	67	298	2	9	23%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Hernán Pérez 2022 · MLB	31	47→57	48→50	52→55	43	238/285/377	138	300	16	15	26%	6%	86	+0.3	218/264/334	116	278	13	20	26%	5%	68	-1.0	201/245/310	110	254	13	20	26%	5%	54	-1.0
✕Andrew Romine 2017 · MLB	31	50→55	40	55	46	239/297/327	88	294	8	22	21%	6%	78	-0.3	231/286/330	99	285	8	15	21%	6%	75	-0.5	225/274/315	90	276	8	17	21%	5%	66	-0.6
✕Elian Herrera 2016 · MLB	31	52→57	42→40	50→60	44	251/293/357	107	311	9	12	22%	6%	83	+0.1	231/286/338	107	305	10	9	26%	7%	76	-0.4	175/238/190	15	266	0	0	32%	8%	24	-0.8
✕Jace Peterson 2021 · MLB	31	47→57	47→50	55	53	235/315/382	147	285	14	18	22%	10%	98	+1.2	232/318/369	137	296	14	18	25%	11%	97	+1.1	222/312/344	122	285	12	20	25%	11%	89	+0.3
✕Adrian Brown 2005 · MLB	31	47→49	43→45	51→55	52	229/296/344	115	265	10	18	18%	8%	82	+0.0	234/296/333	99	271	8	24	16%	8%	79	-0.2	233/295/320	88	270	6	28	15%	8%	73	-0.4
✕John Andreoli 2021 · MLB	31	44→54	44→45	54→60	48	211/297/330	119	311	11	15	33%	10%	80	-0.2	178/273/307	129	305	15	17	42%	11%	66	-1.1	137/244/257	120	233	15	21	44%	12%	43	-1.4
✕Skye Bolt 2024 · MLB	30	48→40	45→50	52→50	45	235/301/358	123	313	12	11	28%	8%	87	+0.4	225/294/338	113	318	11	10	30%	8%	80	-0.2	194/271/275	81	289	7	4	32%	10%	57	-0.4
✕Wilmer Difo 2022 · MLB	30	50→56	42→45	49→55	48	242/302/347	104	307	10	8	24%	8%	84	+0.2	220/276/318	98	272	9	15	22%	7%	68	-1.0	206/267/291	85	259	8	19	23%	7%	57	-1.0