Niko Goodrum

SS Syracuse Mets

Age 35 S/R 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA H -5% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	31	AAABOS	286	.280/.449/.440	8	7	98	—	.228/.347/.336
2024	32	AAABAL	243	.284/.376/.460	7	7	91	—	.244/.310/.376
2024	32	MLBLAA	33	.103/.188/.103	0	1	-15	-0.8
2025	33	AAANYM	46	.229/.400/.400	1	2	73	—	.184/.311/.316
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	35	MLBNYM	12	.237/.314/.376	0	0	100	0.0
2028PROJ	36	MLBNYM	81	.225/.301/.351	2	1	89	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.8 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service10.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2024

Bat Spd62

Barrel%57

Speed37

xwOBA32

Avg EV25

CompsDioner Navarro (age 35) · Gary Matthews Jr. (age 35) · Erick Aybar (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†100

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .314 / .376

PA12

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP303

ISO151

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractPOW 54

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2024

CONTACT—

xAVG

100.204

POWER54

Barrel%

579.3

Avg EV

2587.2

Bat Spd

6272.6

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED49

Sprint

3726.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	18	ROK	GCL Twins	—	128	118	19	4	0	0	9	34	0	4	2	161	220	195	415	34	224	27	7	195	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	230	204	56	10	3	2	21	56	4	8	1	275	354	382	736	108	367	24	9	333	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	227	55	12	8	4	38	56	1	6	3	242	353	419	772	176	300	21	14	342	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	455	385	100	22	4	4	60	105	4	20	4	260	365	369	734	109	345	23	13	332	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	504	438	109	19	5	3	58	99	2	35	4	249	339	336	675	87	312	20	12	307	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	238	209	51	6	5	5	28	51	0	18	4	244	333	392	726	148	299	21	12	325	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	240	205	45	11	1	4	32	59	2	11	5	220	331	341	672	122	287	25	13	309	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	207	182	50	10	2	6	22	52	2	8	2	275	359	451	810	176	352	25	11	359	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	26	25	7	4	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	280	308	560	868	280	353	27	4	374	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	INTL	Caribes de Anzoategui	—	132	116	33	8	3	1	13	29	0	6	2	284	354	431	785	147	368	22	10	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	18	17	1	0	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	59	111	59	170		143	56	6	89	-54	-3	+0	-0	+2	+0	-0.1
2017	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	499	461	122	25	5	13	30	119	2	11	7	265	312	425	738	161	326	24	6	323	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	492	444	109	29	3	16	42	132	4	12	4	245	316	432	749	187	312	27	9	331	113	+8	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.1
2019	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	472	423	105	27	5	12	46	138	1	12	3	248	323	421	744	173	338	29	10	330	112	+7	+1	+9	+5	+10	3.3
2020	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	179	158	29	7	1	5	18	69	0	7	1	184	267	335	602	152	276	39	10	268	71	-6	+1	+5	+2	+4	0.6
2021	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	325	290	62	11	2	9	29	107	4	14	5	214	294	359	653	145	301	33	9	294	88	-4	+1	+5	+4	+7	1.3
2021	29	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	62	54	10	0	0	0	7	16	0	1	0	185	279	185	464		256	26	11	225	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	45	43	5	2	0	0	2	23	0	1	0	116	156	163	318	47	250	51	4	148	-16	-6	+0	+1	+0	+1	-0.4
2022	30	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	62	45	14	3	0	2	17	14	0	2	0	311	500	511	1.011	200	414	23	27	452	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	ROK	FCL Astros Orange	—	24	17	4	2	0	0	7	9	0	1	0	235	458	353	811	118	500	38	29	386	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	286	218	61	9	1	8	66	60	1	7	3	280	449	440	889	161	351	21	23	404	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	33	29	3	0	0	0	3	10	0	1	1	103	188	103	291		158	30	9	146	-15	-5	-0	-5	+1	+1	-0.8
2024	32	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	243	211	60	8	4	7	29	66	2	7	1	284	376	460	836	175	381	27	12	371	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	46	35	8	3	0	1	8	12	2	2	2	229	400	400	800	171	304	26	17	361	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1564	1404	314	76	11	42	141	489	9	47	14	224	299	383	682	160	308	31	9	304	92	-15	+4	+14	+16	+34	5.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	128	121	14	3	0	0	6	49	0	4	2	116	157	140	298	25	185	38	5	134	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	230	211	43	7	2	1	14	80	4	8	1	204	266	270	537	66	316	35	6	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	241	44	9	6	3	24	80	1	6	3	183	259	307	566	124	246	30	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	455	406	96	19	4	3	39	150	4	20	4	236	310	325	635	89	350	33	9	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	504	453	94	17	4	3	43	141	2	35	4	208	279	283	562	75	285	28	9	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	238	218	46	6	4	3	19	63	0	18	4	211	274	317	591	106	280	26	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	240	218	37	10	1	3	19	85	2	11	5	170	243	266	509	96	258	35	8	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	207	191	43	8	2	4	13	66	2	8	2	225	282	351	632	126	313	32	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	26	25	6	3	0	1	1	10	0	1	0	240	269	480	749	240	329	38	4	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	18	17	1	0	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	59	111	59	170		143	56	6	89	-54	-3	+0	-0	+2	+0	-0.1
2017	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	499	471	107	19	4	12	20	143	2	11	7	227	262	361	623	134	292	29	4	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	492	445	112	30	3	17	41	132	4	12	4	252	320	447	768	196	312	27	8	336	113	+8	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.1
2019	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	472	424	108	28	5	13	45	138	1	12	3	255	328	436	764	182	338	29	10	334	112	+7	+1	+9	+5	+10	3.3
2020	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	179	158	29	7	1	5	18	69	0	7	1	184	267	335	602	152	276	39	10	273	71	-6	+1	+5	+2	+4	0.6
2021	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	325	290	63	11	2	9	29	107	4	14	5	217	297	362	659	145	301	33	9	299	88	-4	+1	+5	+4	+7	1.3
2021	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	62	56	9	0	0	0	5	19	0	1	0	161	230	161	390		236	31	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	45	43	5	2	0	0	2	23	0	1	0	116	156	163	318	47	250	51	4	145	-16	-6	+0	+1	+0	+1	-0.4
2022	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	62	50	14	3	0	2	12	17	0	2	0	280	419	460	879	180	367	27	19	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	ROK MLE	FCL Astros Orange	—	24	20	2	1	0	0	4	13	0	1	0	100	250	150	400	50	365	54	17	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	286	241	55	6	1	6	43	70	1	7	3	228	347	336	683	108	296	24	15	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	33	29	3	0	0	0	3	10	0	1	1	103	188	103	291		158	30	9	146	-15	-5	-0	-5	+1	+1	-0.8
2024	32	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	243	221	54	6	4	5	19	74	2	7	1	244	310	376	685	131	344	30	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	46	38	7	2	0	1	5	15	2	2	2	184	311	316	627	132	252	33	11	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	128	121	14	3	0	0	6	49	0	4	2	116	157	140	298	25	192	38	5	134	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	—	128	118	19	4	0	0	9	34	0	4	2	161	220	195	415	34	224	27	7	195	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	230	211	43	7	2	1	14	80	4	8	1	204	266	270	537	66	321	35	6	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	230	204	56	10	3	2	21	56	4	8	1	275	354	382	736	108	367	24	9	333	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	241	44	9	6	3	24	80	1	6	3	183	259	307	566	124	255	30	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	227	55	12	8	4	38	56	1	6	3	242	353	419	772	176	300	21	14	342	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	455	406	96	19	4	3	39	150	4	20	4	236	310	325	635	89	365	33	9	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	455	385	100	22	4	4	60	105	4	20	4	260	365	369	734	109	345	23	13	332	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	504	453	94	17	4	3	43	141	2	35	4	208	279	283	562	75	291	28	9	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ RAW	Fort Myers Miracle	—	504	438	109	19	5	3	58	99	2	35	4	249	339	336	675	87	312	20	12	307	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	478	436	82	15	5	6	38	148	2	29	9	188	256	287	543	99	268	31	8	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	478	414	96	17	6	9	60	110	2	29	9	232	332	367	699	135	293	23	13	317	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	365	338	75	18	3	7	22	119	2	15	4	222	273	355	629	133	318	33	6	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	365	323	90	22	5	8	36	88	2	15	4	279	354	452	806	173	358	24	10	354	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	517	488	108	19	4	12	21	153	2	11	7	221	256	350	607	129	293	30	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	517	478	123	25	5	13	31	129	2	11	7	257	305	412	717	155	323	25	6	315	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	492	445	112	30	3	17	41	132	4	12	4	252	320	447	768	196	319	27	8	336	113	+8	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.1
2018	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	492	444	109	29	3	16	42	132	4	12	4	245	316	432	749	187	312	27	9	331	113	+8	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.1
2019	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	472	424	108	28	5	13	45	138	1	12	3	255	328	436	764	182	345	29	10	334	112	+7	+1	+9	+5	+10	3.3
2019	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	472	423	105	27	5	12	46	138	1	12	3	248	323	421	744	173	338	29	10	330	112	+7	+1	+9	+5	+10	3.3
2020	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	179	158	29	7	1	5	18	69	0	7	1	184	267	335	602	152	276	39	10	273	71	-6	+1	+5	+2	+4	0.6
2020	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	179	158	29	7	1	5	18	69	0	7	1	184	267	335	602	152	276	39	10	268	71	-6	+1	+5	+2	+4	0.6
2021	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	387	346	72	11	2	9	34	126	4	15	5	208	286	329	616	121	294	33	9	281	76	-11	+1	+5	+4	+8	0.7
2021	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	387	344	72	11	2	9	36	123	4	15	5	209	292	331	623	122	293	32	9	283	76	-11	+1	+5	+4	+8	0.7
2022	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	131	113	21	6	0	2	18	53	0	4	0	186	298	292	590	106	328	40	14	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	131	105	23	7	0	2	26	46	0	4	0	219	374	343	717	124	368	35	20	336	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	286	241	55	6	1	6	43	70	1	7	3	228	347	336	683	108	295	24	15	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	—	286	218	61	9	1	8	66	60	1	7	3	280	449	440	889	161	351	21	23	404	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	276	250	57	6	4	5	22	84	2	8	2	228	296	344	640	116	321	30	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	276	240	63	8	4	7	32	76	2	8	2	263	354	417	771	154	354	28	12	344	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	46	38	7	2	0	1	5	15	2	2	2	184	311	316	627	132	261	33	11	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	—	46	35	8	3	0	1	8	12	2	2	2	229	400	400	800	171	304	26	17	361	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	128	121	14	3	0	0	6	49	0	4	2	116	157	140	298	25	185	38	5	134	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	230	210	43	7	2	1	14	80	4	8	1	205	266	271	538	67	316	35	6	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	269	242	44	9	6	3	24	80	1	6	3	182	259	306	565	124	246	30	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	455	409	96	19	4	3	39	150	4	20	4	235	310	323	632	88	350	33	9	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	504	454	94	17	4	3	43	141	2	35	4	207	279	282	561	75	285	28	9	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	478	435	82	15	5	6	38	148	2	29	9	189	256	287	544	99	269	31	8	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	365	338	75	18	3	7	22	119	2	15	4	222	273	355	629	133	315	33	6	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	517	489	108	19	4	12	21	153	2	11	7	221	256	350	606	129	287	30	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	492	444	112	30	3	17	41	132	4	12	4	252	320	448	769	196	312	27	8	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	472	423	108	28	5	13	45	138	1	12	3	255	328	437	765	182	338	29	10	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	179	159	29	7	1	5	18	69	0	7	1	182	267	333	600	151	276	39	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	387	346	72	11	2	9	34	126	4	15	5	208	286	329	616	121	291	33	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	131	112	21	6	0	2	18	53	0	4	0	188	298	295	592	107	326	40	14	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	286	240	55	6	1	6	43	70	1	7	3	229	347	338	685	108	296	24	15	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	276	250	57	6	4	5	22	84	2	8	2	228	296	344	640	116	322	30	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	46	39	7	2	0	1	5	15	2	2	2	179	311	308	619	128	252	33	11	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	276	250	57	6	4	5	22	84	2	8	2	228	296	344	640	116	322	30	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	46	39	7	2	0	1	5	15	2	2	2	179	311	308	619	128	252	33	11	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	NYM	10%	193	172	42	8	1	5	17	49	2	4	1	244	321	386	707	142	313	25	9	316	100	+0	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	NYM	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	237	314	376	690	139	303	25	8	309	100	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	81	73	18	3	1	2	7	21	1	1	0	232	307	361	668	128	302	26	9	300	89	-1	+0	-6	+1	+2	-0.4
2028	36	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	81	73	17	3	1	2	7	21	1	1	0	225	301	351	652	125	293	26	9	294	89	-1	+0	-6	+1	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1645	1477	331	79	12	44	148	510	10	48	14	224	299	383	682	159	308	31	9	303	74	-16	+4	+8	+17	+36	4.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	130	31	5	17	58	202	4	19	6	223	297	380	677	158	306	31	9	303	74	-6	+2	+3	+7	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5416	4888	1061	211	46	98	451	1659	34	199	55	217	288	339	627	122	304	31	8	278	74	-16	+4	+8	+18	+38	5.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	128	25	6	12	54	199	4	24	7	218	288	342	631	124	305	31	8	278	74	-6	+2	+3	+7	+14	2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 46 PAwOBA .361 → .276 (−84)K% 26.1% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.09%	÷0.981	×1.200	—	—	31.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.39%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.942	11.24%
HBP% /PA	4.35%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	3.85%
Singles /BIP	17.39%	÷0.975	×0.930	—	×0.942	15.62%
Doubles /BIP	13.04%	÷1.022	×0.830	—	×0.942	9.98%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.970	—	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.35%	÷1.167	×0.700	—	×0.942	2.46%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .361 → .276; ISO .171 → .121; BABIP .304 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 243 PAwOBA .363 → .302 (−61)K% 27.2% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.16%	÷1.070	×1.200	—	—	30.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.93%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.94%
HBP% /PA	0.82%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.74%
Singles /BIP	28.28%	÷0.962	×0.930	×1.009	×0.952	26.26%
Doubles /BIP	5.52%	÷1.006	×0.830	×1.009	×0.952	4.37%
Triples /BIP	2.76%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.009	×0.952	2.86%
Home runs /BIP	4.83%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.952	3.23%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .363 → .302; ISO .175 → .139; BABIP .381 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 286 PAwOBA .394 → .313 (−81)K% 21.0% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.98%	÷1.023	×1.200	—	—	24.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.38%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×0.962	15.07%
HBP% /PA	0.35%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.32%
Singles /BIP	27.22%	÷0.996	×0.930	×1.008	×0.962	24.64%
Doubles /BIP	5.70%	÷1.309	×0.830	×1.008	×0.962	3.50%
Triples /BIP	0.63%	÷0.905	×0.970	×1.008	×0.962	0.66%
Home runs /BIP	5.06%	÷1.008	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.38%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .394 → .313; ISO .161 → .118; BABIP .351 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 62 PAwOBA .442 → .364 (−78)K% 22.6% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.58%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	27.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.42%	÷0.953	×0.690	—	×0.972	19.29%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.03%	÷0.982	×0.930	—	×0.972	26.71%
Doubles /BIP	9.68%	÷0.952	×0.830	—	×0.972	8.20%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.45%	÷0.917	×0.700	—	×0.972	4.79%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 97, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .442 → .364; ISO .200 → .165; BABIP .414 → .367. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Astros Orange · 24 PAwOBA .378 → .225 (−153)K% 37.5% → 54.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.50%	÷0.986	×1.440	—	—	54.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	29.17%	÷0.997	×0.620	—	×0.940	17.05%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.977	×0.820	—	×0.940	19.71%
Doubles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.006	×0.720	—	×0.940	16.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.006	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.056	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 95, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (10.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .378 → .225; ISO .118 → .067; BABIP .500 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 62 PAwOBA .223 → .185 (−38)K% 25.8% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.81%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	30.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.29%	÷1.038	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.37%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷0.991	×0.930	—	×0.982	24.25%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.013	×0.830	—	×0.982	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.981	×0.920	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 96, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .223 → .185; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .256 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAARochester Red Wings · 499 PAwOBA .317 → .268 (−49)K% 23.8% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.85%	÷0.997	×1.200	—	—	28.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.01%	÷1.080	×0.690	—	×1.033	3.97%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.39%
Singles /BIP	23.10%	÷1.019	×0.930	×0.991	×1.033	21.59%
Doubles /BIP	7.31%	÷1.085	×0.830	×0.991	×1.033	5.73%
Triples /BIP	1.46%	÷1.085	×0.970	×0.991	×1.033	1.34%
Home runs /BIP	3.80%	÷0.956	×0.840	—	×1.033	3.45%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 117, 3B 117, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .317 → .268; ISO .161 → .136; BABIP .326 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 207 PAwOBA .348 → .274 (−74)K% 25.1% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.12%	÷0.961	×1.220	—	—	31.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.66%	÷1.039	×0.680	—	×1.012	6.40%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.82%
Singles /BIP	24.62%	÷1.005	×0.920	×0.999	×1.012	22.79%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.108	×0.910	×0.999	×1.012	6.39%
Triples /BIP	1.54%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.999	×1.012	1.52%
Home runs /BIP	4.62%	÷1.301	×0.800	—	×1.012	2.87%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 101, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 92, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .348 → .274; ISO .176 → .125; BABIP .352 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kyle Farmerlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,367 PA	3.6	2,367	63	16	247	306	388	+17	+23	8.9	9.0
/162	664	18	4	+4.7	+6.4	2.5	pk7: 9
#2Thairo Estradalast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,870 PA	2.8	1,870	51	53	251	299	392	+8	+29	7.8	7.8
/162	664	18	19	+2.7	+10.3	2.8	pk7: 8
#3Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
/162	664	24	7	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6
#4Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.4	1,561	44	46	234	306	401	+14	+11	5.9	5.9
/162	664	19	20	+6.1	+4.6	2.5	pk7: 6
#5Ed Spiezio'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	39	16	238*	304*	389*	+5	+8	4.7	4.9
/162	664	15	6	+1.9	+3.3	1.8	pk7: 5
#6Pat Kelly'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,235 PA	3.4	2,235	36	61	242*	299*	375*	+6	+11	3.7	3.8
/162	664	11	18	+1.7	+3.2	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Niko Goodrum (OGILVIE)	35	—	54	49	48	242/318/383	141	313	3	3	26%	9%	100	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dioner Navarro 2019 · MLB	35	45→55	47→50	46→45	48	227/290/362	135	269	14	8	22%	8%	84	+0.1	222/297/340	118	273	12	8	22%	9%	82	-0.0	171/255/218	47	218	4	0	22%	9%	37	-0.6
✕Gary Matthews Jr. 2010 · MLB	35	51→61	45→55	50	53	246/320/373	127	293	11	11	20%	9%	97	+1.1	240/304/364	124	319	11	11	26%	8%	89	+0.5	232/276/337	105	344	7	12	33%	6%	69	-0.3
✕Erick Aybar 2019 · MLB	35	49→59	43→45	47→60	49	236/294/345	109	266	10	13	16%	7%	82	-0.0	239/311/368	129	280	12	9	18%	8%	93	+0.8	237/312/356	118	280	10	6	18%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Nick Hundley 2019 · MLB	35	48→45	52→55	46→40	42	245/290/418	172	303	20	4	26%	6%	97	+1.1	226/277/380	154	301	18	7	30%	6%	84	+0.1	161/196/283	123	228	14	0	36%	3%	31	-0.8
✕Abraham Almonte 2023 · MLB	34	47→55	51→55	46→55	55	239/329/403	164	293	19	10	25%	11%	108	+1.9	216/298/373	157	285	20	10	30%	10%	90	+0.6	153/248/296	143	191	23	6	34%	11%	54	-0.8
✕Andrés Blanco 2018 · MLB	34	48	47→50	44→50	48	238/304/382	144	283	13	7	21%	7%	94	+0.9	212/284/343	131	254	15	6	22%	7%	78	-0.3	198/274/326	127	237	15	5	23%	7%	68	-0.7
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→54	47→50	49→40	50	252/320/389	137	288	14	7	18%	8%	101	+1.4	221/287/336	115	291	11	8	26%	8%	77	-0.3	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
✕Aaron Boone 2008 · MLB	35	51→57	46→60	46→55	49	253/323/384	131	286	14	8	17%	7%	102	+1.5	244/311/384	140	288	14	6	20%	8%	97	+1.1	237/294/377	140	281	14	0	20%	7%	90	+0.2
✕Adam Rosales 2018 · MLB	35	44→50	51→55	45	40	225/281/387	162	304	19	7	32%	6%	86	+0.3	198/248/332	134	258	16	5	29%	5%	61	-1.5	175/223/296	120	224	15	3	29%	5%	42	-1.8
✕Tom Wilson 2006 · MLB	35	50	50	48→30	49	248/315/411	163	306	17	4	24%	9%	105	+1.7	232/291/378	146	300	15	6	27%	7%	88	+0.5	221/277/354	134	291	14	2	28%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Curt Casali 2023 · MLB	34	44	49→50	48→30	52	219/317/366	147	293	17	4	29%	11%	96	+1.0	223/315/328	105	288	10	4	24%	10%	86	+0.3	214/312/278	65	277	4	0	22%	10%	74	-0.2
✕Jason Kipnis 2021 · MLB	34	46→56	50→55	49→55	52	234/308/394	160	270	18	8	21%	9%	99	+1.2	234/309/390	156	295	18	7	26%	8%	98	+1.2	215/293/362	147	274	17	2	27%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Michael Tucker 2005 · MLB	34	51	49→55	48→55	56	251/332/410	159	294	15	11	20%	11%	110	+2.1	229/315/360	131	272	12	9	19%	11%	93	+0.8	208/300/322	114	250	9	9	20%	11%	78	-0.2
✕Justin Ruggiano 2017 · MLB	35	44→54	50→60	45→55	43	223/291/377	154	307	18	11	32%	8%	88	+0.5	223/274/370	147	289	17	9	28%	6%	80	-0.1	215/249/357	142	264	18	5	26%	3%	65	-0.5
✕Jose Lobatón 2019 · MLB	34	44	48→45	49→30	48	225/293/367	142	275	16	5	24%	8%	86	+0.3	198/260/333	135	271	15	5	31%	7%	67	-1.1	158/215/279	120	214	15	1	33%	6%	34	-2.2
✕Raul Casanova 2009 · MLB	36	47	48→60	47→30	45	240/287/376	137	284	16	4	22%	6%	86	+0.3	242/302/362	120	281	13	5	18%	7%	88	+0.5	247/310/350	103	281	12	1	16%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Cameron Maybin 2021 · MLB	34	52→60	47→50	48→55	51	254/329/400	145	325	14	15	25%	10%	107	+1.8	207/279/326	119	292	11	12	31%	8%	72	-0.7	93/171/130	37	150	3	9	37%	7%	-14	-1.4
✕Dexter Fowler 2020 · MLB	34	45→55	53→55	45→55	57	231/330/403	172	275	20	9	24%	12%	109	+2.0	243/327/399	156	303	19	10	25%	10%	107	+1.8	236/319/400	165	293	26	6	28%	10%	106	+0.3
✕Stephen Vogt 2020 · MLB	35	47→57	56→60	47→40	49	246/306/449	203	282	22	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	216/287/381	165	257	19	5	23%	9%	88	+0.4	179/259/328	149	204	20	1	24%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Fernando Tatis 2009 · MLB	34	47→52	52→55	47→45	48	241/305/410	169	278	20	7	21%	8%	101	+1.4	250/310/410	160	287	17	7	19%	7%	103	+1.5	273/327/425	151	304	13	6	14%	5%	113	+1.4

Niko Goodrum

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps