Taylor Walls
SS Tampa Bay Rays| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | AAA/ROKTB | 43 | .263/.349/.526 | 1 | 2 | 85 | — | .222/.279/.445 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLBTB | 252 | .183/.285/.248 | 1 | 16 | 54 | -0.4 | |
| 2025 | 29 | MLBTB | 317 | .220/.286/.319 | 4 | 14 | 63 | -0.1 | |
| 2026 | 30 | MLBTB | 433 | .222/.312/.298 | 2 | 21 | 70 | 0.3 | |
| 2027PROJ | 31 | MLBTB | 271 | .196/.282/.269 | 2 | 13 | 58 | -0.5 | |
| 2028PROJ | 32 | MLBTB | 248 | .190/.275/.256 | 1 | 8 | 53 | -1.0 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 540 | 467 | 142 | 28 | 6 | 6 | 66 | 80 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 304 | 395 | 428 | 823 | 124 | 354 | 15 | 12 | 369 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 243 | 211 | 57 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 51 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 270 | 353 | 479 | 832 | 209 | 321 | 21 | 11 | 359 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 180 | 156 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 28 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 269 | 349 | 417 | 765 | 147 | 295 | 16 | 11 | 334 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 176 | 152 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 49 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 211 | 314 | 296 | 610 | 86 | 304 | 28 | 13 | 284 | 78 | -5 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 222 | 178 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 58 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 247 | 391 | 444 | 835 | 197 | 316 | 26 | 18 | 373 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 466 | 407 | 70 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 120 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 172 | 268 | 285 | 553 | 113 | 221 | 26 | 11 | 255 | 59 | -23 | +1 | -6 | +5 | +10 | -1.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 349 | 303 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 92 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 201 | 305 | 333 | 638 | 132 | 261 | 26 | 13 | 292 | 84 | -7 | +4 | -3 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 252 | 218 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 67 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 183 | 285 | 248 | 533 | 64 | 255 | 27 | 12 | 250 | 54 | -14 | +2 | -1 | +3 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 23 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 381 | 435 | 714 | 1.149 | 333 | 533 | 26 | 9 | 489 | 156 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 20 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 118 | 250 | 294 | 544 | 176 | 71 | 10 | 10 | 256 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 317 | 282 | 62 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 70 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 220 | 286 | 319 | 605 | 99 | 271 | 22 | 8 | 268 | 63 | -14 | +0 | +3 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 433 | 369 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 105 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 222 | 312 | 298 | 610 | 76 | 301 | 24 | 10 | 273 | 70 | -15 | +3 | +1 | +5 | +9 | 0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1993 | 1731 | 347 | 77 | 10 | 24 | 221 | 503 | 6 | 87 | 19 | 200 | 293 | 298 | 591 | 98 | 265 | 25 | 11 | 270 | 69 | -75 | +10 | -4 | +22 | +43 | -0.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 540 | 488 | 125 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 109 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 256 | 324 | 357 | 681 | 100 | 312 | 20 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 243 | 219 | 51 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 63 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 233 | 294 | 402 | 696 | 169 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 180 | 161 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 39 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 230 | 291 | 366 | 658 | 137 | 256 | 22 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 176 | 152 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 49 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 211 | 314 | 296 | 610 | 86 | 304 | 28 | 13 | 284 | 78 | -5 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 222 | 191 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 68 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 209 | 314 | 351 | 664 | 141 | 281 | 31 | 12 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 466 | 408 | 69 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 120 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 169 | 266 | 282 | 548 | 113 | 221 | 26 | 11 | 255 | 59 | -23 | +1 | -6 | +5 | +10 | -1.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 349 | 303 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 92 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 198 | 302 | 330 | 632 | 132 | 261 | 26 | 13 | 292 | 84 | -7 | +4 | -3 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 252 | 218 | 39 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 67 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 179 | 281 | 243 | 524 | 64 | 255 | 27 | 12 | 248 | 54 | -14 | +2 | -1 | +3 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 23 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 318 | 348 | 591 | 939 | 273 | 472 | 30 | 4 | 399 | 156 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 20 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 200 | 278 | 478 | 167 | 53 | 15 | 5 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 317 | 282 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 70 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 213 | 279 | 309 | 588 | 96 | 271 | 22 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -14 | +0 | +3 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 433 | 369 | 81 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 105 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 220 | 309 | 295 | 605 | 76 | 301 | 24 | 10 | 272 | 70 | -15 | +3 | +1 | +5 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 540 | 488 | 125 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 109 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 256 | 324 | 357 | 681 | 100 | 318 | 20 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 540 | 467 | 142 | 28 | 6 | 6 | 66 | 80 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 304 | 395 | 428 | 823 | 124 | 354 | 15 | 12 | 369 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 423 | 380 | 87 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 102 | 1 | 28 | 15 | 229 | 291 | 379 | 670 | 150 | 280 | 24 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 423 | 367 | 99 | 23 | 7 | 10 | 45 | 79 | 1 | 28 | 15 | 270 | 351 | 452 | 803 | 183 | 309 | 19 | 11 | 348 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 398 | 343 | 72 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 117 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 210 | 314 | 327 | 640 | 117 | 294 | 29 | 13 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 398 | 330 | 76 | 19 | 1 | 9 | 63 | 107 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 230 | 357 | 376 | 733 | 145 | 310 | 27 | 16 | 333 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 466 | 408 | 69 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 120 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 169 | 266 | 282 | 548 | 113 | 216 | 26 | 11 | 255 | 59 | -23 | +1 | -6 | +5 | +10 | -1.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB RAW | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 466 | 407 | 70 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 120 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 172 | 268 | 285 | 553 | 113 | 221 | 26 | 11 | 255 | 59 | -23 | +1 | -6 | +5 | +10 | -1.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 349 | 303 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 92 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 198 | 302 | 330 | 632 | 132 | 256 | 26 | 13 | 292 | 84 | -7 | +4 | -3 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB RAW | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 349 | 303 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 92 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 201 | 305 | 333 | 638 | 132 | 261 | 26 | 13 | 292 | 84 | -7 | +4 | -3 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 295 | 257 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 77 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 187 | 284 | 276 | 561 | 89 | 254 | 26 | 12 | 254 | 58 | -15 | +2 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB RAW | 3 teams | — | 295 | 256 | 50 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 75 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 195 | 295 | 289 | 584 | 94 | 264 | 25 | 12 | 269 | 58 | -15 | +2 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 317 | 282 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 70 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 213 | 279 | 309 | 588 | 96 | 262 | 22 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -14 | +0 | +3 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB RAW | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 317 | 282 | 62 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 70 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 220 | 286 | 319 | 605 | 99 | 271 | 22 | 8 | 268 | 63 | -14 | +0 | +3 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 433 | 369 | 81 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 105 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 220 | 309 | 295 | 605 | 76 | 297 | 24 | 10 | 272 | 70 | -15 | +3 | +1 | +5 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB RAW | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 433 | 369 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 105 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 222 | 312 | 298 | 610 | 76 | 301 | 24 | 10 | 273 | 70 | -15 | +3 | +1 | +5 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 540 | 486 | 125 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 109 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 257 | 324 | 358 | 682 | 101 | 312 | 20 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 423 | 387 | 87 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 102 | 1 | 28 | 15 | 225 | 291 | 372 | 663 | 147 | 271 | 24 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 398 | 343 | 72 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 117 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 210 | 314 | 327 | 640 | 117 | 291 | 29 | 13 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 466 | 409 | 69 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 120 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 169 | 266 | 281 | 547 | 112 | 221 | 26 | 11 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 349 | 301 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 92 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 199 | 302 | 332 | 634 | 133 | 261 | 26 | 13 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 295 | 258 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 77 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 186 | 284 | 275 | 559 | 89 | 258 | 26 | 12 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 317 | 288 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 70 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 208 | 279 | 302 | 581 | 94 | 271 | 22 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 433 | 382 | 81 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 105 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 212 | 309 | 285 | 595 | 73 | 301 | 24 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 295 | 258 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 77 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 186 | 284 | 275 | 559 | 89 | 258 | 26 | 12 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 317 | 288 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 70 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 208 | 279 | 302 | 581 | 94 | 271 | 22 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 433 | 382 | 81 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 105 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 212 | 309 | 285 | 595 | 73 | 301 | 24 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 379 | 336 | 66 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 88 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 194 | 280 | 268 | 548 | 74 | 253 | 23 | 10 | 254 | 58 | -19 | +2 | -2 | +4 | +8 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 271 | 241 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 63 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 196 | 282 | 269 | 551 | 73 | 256 | 23 | 10 | 256 | 58 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 248 | 220 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 59 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 188 | 273 | 255 | 528 | 66 | 248 | 24 | 10 | 246 | 53 | -14 | +1 | -5 | +3 | +5 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 248 | 220 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 59 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 190 | 275 | 256 | 531 | 65 | 251 | 24 | 10 | 248 | 53 | -14 | +1 | -5 | +3 | +5 | -1.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2241 | 1951 | 388 | 85 | 11 | 25 | 246 | 562 | 7 | 95 | 21 | 199 | 291 | 292 | 583 | 93 | 263 | 25 | 11 | 267 | 72 | -89 | +11 | -9 | +24 | +49 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 566 | 112 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 71 | 163 | 2 | 28 | 6 | 198 | 290 | 290 | 579 | 92 | 262 | 25 | 11 | 267 | 72 | -26 | +3 | -3 | +7 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3740 | 3291 | 690 | 147 | 25 | 48 | 380 | 914 | 16 | 179 | 56 | 210 | 295 | 313 | 608 | 104 | 272 | 24 | 10 | 275 | 72 | -102 | +12 | -11 | +27 | +54 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 120 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 66 | 159 | 3 | 31 | 10 | 210 | 295 | 311 | 607 | 101 | 273 | 24 | 10 | 275 | 72 | -26 | +3 | -3 | +7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAADurham Bulls · 23 PAwOBA .475 → .399 (−77)K% 26.1% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷1.014 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 12.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 27.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 7.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .475 → .399; ISO .333 → .289; BABIP .533 → .472. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Rays · 20 PAwOBA .249 → .172 (−77)K% 10.0% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 14.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 5.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.024 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 5.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.002 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 4.88% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .249 → .172; ISO .176 → .131; BABIP .071 → .053. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAADurham Bulls · 222 PAwOBA .364 → .297 (−67)K% 26.1% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.13% | ÷1.029 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.12% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 12.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷0.945 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 20.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 5.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.55% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 89, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .364 → .297; ISO .197 → .146; BABIP .316 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 243 PAwOBA .355 → .302 (−54)K% 21.0% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.99% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.29% | ÷0.963 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷0.978 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 17.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 8.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 2.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.75% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.35% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .355 → .302; ISO .209 → .178; BABIP .321 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 180 PAwOBA .334 → .283 (−51)K% 15.6% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.56% | ÷1.033 | ×1.420 | — | — | 21.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.56% | ÷1.018 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 7.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.66% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.47% | ÷1.011 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.939 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.92% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .334 → .283; ISO .147 → .134; BABIP .295 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 540 PAwOBA .362 → .297 (−64)K% 14.8% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.04% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.36% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | — | 23.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.24% | ÷1.057 | ×0.830 | ×0.991 | — | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.55% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | — | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.20% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 101, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .362 → .297; ISO .124 → .101; BABIP .354 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).