Luis Durango — OGILVIE

Luis DurangoCF Tampa Tarpons

Age 23 L/L 5'10" / 135 lbs A HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION180 act + 120 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.243 / .294 / .324

PA120

HR1

SB10

K%22

BB%5

BABIP306

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 52 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT52

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE42

scouting grade only

SPEED80

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Indians	—	184	164	41	4	0	1	10	47	7	28	7	250	320	293	613	43	339	26	5	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	ACL Indians	—	184	156	48	6	0	3	18	31	7	28	7	308	403	404	807	96	363	17	10	364	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	261	228	40	4	1	0	21	56	10	20	8	175	274	202	476	26	233	21	8	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	261	217	41	4	2	0	32	38	10	20	8	189	320	226	546	37	229	15	12	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	79	73	20	2	1	0	5	21	1	18	1	274	329	329	658	55	385	27	6	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	79	69	23	2	1	0	9	14	1	18	1	333	418	391	809	58	418	18	11	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	153	136	27	5	1	0	5	44	10	21	1	199	278	250	528	51	293	29	3	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	153	132	33	6	1	0	9	30	10	21	1	250	344	311	655	61	324	20	6	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	130	117	24	1	0	0	7	38	5	17	8	205	279	214	493	9	304	29	5	224	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	130	113	27	1	0	0	10	27	5	17	8	239	326	248	573	9	314	21	8	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A	NYY	—	180	166	52	7	3	0	7	30	3	33	7	313	352	392	744	78	380	17	4	320	103	+1	+4	+0	+1	+5	1.0
YTD	23	A	NYY	—	180	163	55	8	3	0	10	22	3	33	7	337	386	423	810	86	387	12	6	356	131	+6	+4	+0	+1	+5	1.6
ROS	23	A	NYY	0%	120	111	27	4	1	1	6	26	2	10	2	243	294	324	618	81	312	22	5	278	71	-4	+1	+0	+0	+3	0.1
ROS	23	MLB	NYY	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		313	—	—	264	60	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	23	A	NYY	—	180	167	52	7	3	0	7	30	3	33	7	311	352	389	741	78	377	17	4	320	103	+1	+4	+0	+1	+5	1.0
TOT	23	A	NYY	—	300	277	79	11	4	1	13	56	5	43	9	285	329	365	693	79	351	19	4	304	90	-3	+5	+0	+1	+8	1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	NYY	30%	276	255	64	11	2	3	14	60	5	16	4	251	303	345	648	94	311	22	5	287	77	-7	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2028	25	MLB	NYY	44%	345	317	79	13	3	4	19	75	6	20	5	249	304	347	651	98	310	22	6	294	83	-6	+2	+0	+1	+10	0.7
2029	26	MLB	NYY	51%	390	358	90	15	3	6	22	85	7	23	5	251	307	360	668	109	309	22	6	299	87	-6	+3	+0	+1	+11	0.9
2030	27	MLB	NYY	52%	409	375	93	16	3	6	24	89	7	24	5	248	305	355	660	107	309	22	6	299	87	-6	+3	+0	+1	+12	1.0
2031	28	MLB	NYY	53%	418	382	95	16	3	6	25	92	8	23	5	249	308	353	662	105	309	22	6	299	87	-6	+3	-1	+1	+12	0.9
2032	29	MLB	NYY	53%	417	382	94	16	3	6	25	92	7	22	5	246	304	351	655	105	308	22	6	297	85	-7	+2	-1	+1	+12	0.8
2033	30	MLB	NYY	52%	413	378	94	16	3	6	25	92	7	19	4	249	307	354	662	106	307	22	6	294	83	-8	+2	-2	+1	+12	0.6
2034	31	MLB	NYY	52%	401	367	89	15	3	5	24	91	7	16	4	243	302	341	642	98	306	23	6	290	80	-9	+2	-3	+1	+11	0.3
2035	32	MLB	NYY	52%	384	351	84	14	2	5	23	89	7	13	3	239	299	333	633	94	303	23	6	285	76	-10	+1	-4	+1	+11	-0.0
2027	24	MLB	NYY	30%	83	77	19	3	1	1	4	18	2	5	1	247	301	351	652	104	312	22	5	274	68	-3	+1	+0	+0	+2	0.0
2028	25	MLB	NYY	44%	152	140	35	6	1	2	8	33	3	9	2	250	305	350	655	100	311	22	5	283	74	-4	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2029	26	MLB	NYY	51%	198	181	45	8	1	3	11	43	4	12	3	249	306	354	660	105	311	22	6	287	78	-5	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.3
2030	27	MLB	NYY	52%	214	195	49	8	2	3	13	47	4	13	3	251	311	359	670	108	310	22	6	288	79	-5	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.3
2031	28	MLB	NYY	53%	223	204	52	9	2	4	13	49	4	12	3	255	312	377	690	123	310	22	6	287	78	-6	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.2
2032	29	MLB	NYY	53%	219	200	48	8	1	3	13	48	4	11	3	240	300	335	635	95	310	22	6	286	77	-6	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.2
2033	30	MLB	NYY	52%	215	196	48	8	1	3	13	48	4	10	2	245	305	342	647	97	309	22	6	283	75	-6	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2034	31	MLB	NYY	52%	208	189	46	8	1	3	13	47	4	8	2	243	306	344	650	101	307	23	6	279	72	-7	+1	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
2035	32	MLB	NYY	52%	198	181	43	7	1	3	12	46	3	7	2	238	296	337	633	99	304	23	6	274	68	-7	+1	-2	+1	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1710	1564	385	65	11	25	100	379	32	87	21	246	305	350	655	104	308	22	6	283	75	-49	+9	-5	+6	+48	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	147	25	4	10	38	144	12	33	8	247	306	353	659	106	309	22	6	283	75	-18	+3	-2	+2	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	4380	3994	961	152	29	49	255	997	96	290	67	241	302	330	632	89	307	23	6	284	76	-120	+31	-10	+16	+124	4.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	142	23	4	7	38	148	14	43	10	239	301	327	628	88	306	23	6	284	76	-18	+5	-2	+2	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Indians	—	184	156	48	6	0	3	18	31	7	28	7	308	403	404	807	96	363	17	10	364	137	+8	+3	—	—	+5	1.6
2022	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	261	217	41	4	2	0	32	38	10	20	8	189	320	226	546	37	229	15	12	267	63	-11	+1	—	—	+7	-0.3
2023	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	63	55	15	1	0	0	7	11	1	10	0	273	365	291	656	18	341	17	11	311	96	-0	+2	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	20	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	16	14	8	1	1	0	2	3	0	8	1	571	625	786	1.411	214	727	19	12	608	323	+4	+1	—	—	+0	0.6
2024	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	153	132	33	6	1	0	9	30	10	21	1	250	344	311	655	61	324	20	6	304	91	-2	+4	—	—	+4	0.7
2025	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	112	97	25	1	0	0	9	22	5	17	7	258	351	268	619	10	333	20	8	294	83	-2	+1	—	—	+3	0.2
2025	22	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	18	16	2	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	1	125	167	125	292		182	28	6	139	-35	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Emilio Bonifáciolast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,780 PA	8	2,780	13	165	259	315	337	+15	-1	5.5	5.9
	/162	664	3	39	259	315	337	+3.5	-0.1	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Delino DeShieldslast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,114 PA	7	2,114	19	111	246	327	342	+1	+6	5.3	5.3
	/162	664	6	35	246	327	342	+0.4	+1.8	1.7	pk7: 5
#3Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	5	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	/162	664	1	37	251	310	309	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,882	25	93	245	300	345	+7	+12	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	9	33	245	300	345	+2.4	+4.4	0.9	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Durango (OGILVIE)	23	47→52	28→33	80	42	285/329/365	79	351	1	43	19%	4%	90	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jacob Young 2023 · A	24	49→58	36→40	62→60	46	227/293/293	66	298	3	28	23%	7%	65	-0.7	248/307/329	81	310	4	32	20%	6%	79	+0.3	251/311/329	77	310	4	35	19%	6%	79	+0.2
✕Donnie Dewees 2017 · A	23	49→51	40→45	62→50	41	233/275/340	108	297	4	17	23%	5%	69	-0.4	215/263/324	109	266	8	14	22%	5%	59	-1.1	205/256/316	111	247	9	13	21%	6%	52	-1.3
✕Micah Johnson 2014 · AA	23	52→60	40→45	63→60	44	247/298/348	101	326	6	35	25%	7%	80	+0.4	257/301/351	94	334	6	28	23%	6%	82	+0.5	255/298/342	87	332	5	27	24%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Pedro Toribio 2013 · A	23	52	40	64→60	42	245/278/351	106	296	5	22	19%	4%	72	-0.2	246/276/312	66	308	2	22	20%	4%	61	-1.0	274/295/314	40	334	0	35	18%	2%	64	-0.4
✕Chris Garia 2016 · AAA	23	48→55	42→40	64→60	38	231/270/340	109	306	8	28	27%	4%	66	-0.6	215/261/329	114	284	9	20	27%	5%	60	-1.0	179/221/294	115	230	9	22	26%	5%	30	-1.0
✕Anthony Norman 2008 · A	23	53→42	37→50	61→55	48	245/303/328	84	291	2	12	16%	6%	77	+0.1	222/302/363	141	273	13	18	23%	9%	88	+0.9	212/297/363	151	268	15	22	25%	9%	83	+0.2
✕David Hamilton 2022 · AA	24	42→41	42→50	65→70	46	207/269/319	112	274	8	36	27%	8%	62	-0.9	208/276/333	125	274	13	50	28%	8%	69	-0.4	220/282/351	131	271	15	58	24%	8%	74	-0.0
●Andrew Toles 2014 · A	22	52→62	40→45	62→60	35	245/271/356	111	332	5	29	28%	3%	70	-0.3	251/285/360	109	329	6	26	24%	4%	78	+0.2	279/317/428	149	345	13	14	22%	4%	104	+1.0
✕Travis Jankowski 2014 · A	23	54→62	35→40	61→65	46	249/299/311	62	322	2	37	22%	7%	71	-0.3	257/314/330	73	328	3	34	21%	7%	82	+0.5	267/332/343	75	341	3	37	21%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Wes Rogers 2016 · A	22	47→48	38→40	65	43	223/280/308	85	293	5	35	25%	6%	63	-0.8	217/271/302	85	297	5	34	27%	6%	58	-1.2	209/263/288	80	288	5	36	28%	6%	48	-1.5
✕Braiden Ward 2023 · A	24	47→45	39→40	64→70	40	216/309/302	86	322	7	41	32%	6%	77	+0.1	216/302/305	89	306	6	49	29%	5%	74	-0.1	223/313/324	101	306	6	64	26%	6%	79	+0.2
●Michael Bourn 2007 · AAA	24	52→62	39→45	64→65	45	244/297/336	92	320	6	31	25%	7%	76	+0.1	248/307/338	90	318	6	43	22%	8%	82	+0.5	274/337/375	101	350	5	38	21%	8%	101	+2.0
✕Darin Mastroianni 2009 · A	23	42→52	38→40	60	41	201/253/277	76	278	5	22	29%	6%	43	-2.2	244/309/320	76	313	3	35	21%	8%	78	+0.2	252/319/328	76	317	2	38	19%	8%	81	+0.4
●Derek Hill 2018 · A	22	42→51	37→50	61→60	39	196/251/276	80	297	4	28	34%	6%	42	-2.3	194/244/272	78	313	6	24	38%	5%	38	-2.6	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Anthony Jackson 2008 · A	24	43→53	41→40	61→55	42	209/264/315	106	286	6	19	28%	6%	58	-1.2	230/284/308	78	295	4	25	22%	6%	64	-0.8	255/321/326	71	317	4	28	19%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Tony Campana 2009 · A	23	46→56	35→30	58→70	43	216/265/271	55	285	3	28	24%	6%	46	-2.0	257/297/302	45	336	1	40	22%	5%	67	-0.5	272/313/319	47	354	1	56	22%	5%	75	-0.0
✕Ryan Rogowski 2008 · A	24	47→46	39→40	61→55	50	221/291/321	100	275	4	25	20%	8%	71	-0.3	219/287/304	85	272	5	25	20%	8%	66	-0.6	216/288/287	71	262	5	32	18%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Ian Miller 2017 · AA	25	52→60	34→40	64→60	46	243/290/302	58	298	1	37	18%	6%	64	-0.8	248/292/326	78	316	4	33	22%	5%	72	-0.2	245/291/333	88	313	6	35	22%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Johan Rojas 2023 · AA	22	43→53	42→45	63→65	42	210/257/316	106	264	9	35	24%	5%	56	-1.3	242/284/347	105	305	8	37	22%	5%	74	-0.1	253/294/353	100	318	7	41	22%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Carlos Willoughby 2011 · A	22	50→42	36→40	62→60	49	232/308/311	79	296	2	28	21%	8%	76	+0.0	207/277/276	69	268	2	17	21%	8%	54	-1.4	197/272/260	63	253	1	17	20%	8%	45	-1.4