Chandler Simpson
LF Tampa Bay Rays| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA/A+TB | 505 | .355/.411/.397 | 1 | 104 | 102 | — | .323/.361/.363 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAATB | 156 | .333/.373/.396 | 0 | 19 | 119 | — | .354/.379/.429 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLBTB | 441 | .295/.326/.345 | 0 | 44 | 83 | 0.1 | |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBTB | 612 | .306/.337/.356 | 0 | 46 | 89 | 0.4 | |
| 2027PROJ | 26 | MLBTB | 556 | .287/.323/.342 | 2 | 51 | 86 | 0.7 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 27 | MLBTB | 506 | .286/.322/.339 | 1 | 46 | 85 | 0.6 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 28 | MLBTB | 496 | .284/.320/.334 | 1 | 42 | 83 | 0.4 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 34 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 370 | 485 | 481 | 966 | 111 | 417 | 12 | 18 | 423 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 106 | 89 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 326 | 429 | 393 | 822 | 67 | 362 | 8 | 15 | 374 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 397 | 354 | 101 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 38 | 35 | 2 | 81 | 12 | 285 | 358 | 333 | 691 | 48 | 317 | 9 | 10 | 316 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 358 | 322 | 113 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 27 | 0 | 73 | 12 | 351 | 405 | 407 | 811 | 56 | 377 | 8 | 8 | 361 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 147 | 129 | 47 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 31 | 5 | 364 | 428 | 372 | 800 | 8 | 416 | 11 | 10 | 363 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 441 | 414 | 122 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 43 | 0 | 44 | 12 | 295 | 326 | 345 | 671 | 51 | 327 | 10 | 5 | 300 | 83 | -9 | +4 | -6 | +2 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 156 | 144 | 48 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 333 | 373 | 396 | 768 | 62 | 369 | 10 | 6 | 340 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 612 | 571 | 175 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 48 | 0 | 46 | 14 | 306 | 337 | 356 | 692 | 49 | 331 | 8 | 4 | 305 | 89 | -8 | +4 | +2 | -7 | +13 | 0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1053 | 985 | 297 | 31 | 9 | 0 | 46 | 91 | 0 | 90 | 26 | 302 | 332 | 351 | 683 | 50 | 329 | 9 | 4 | 303 | 91 | -11 | +8 | -4 | -4 | +23 | 1.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 34 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 276 | 364 | 345 | 708 | 69 | 323 | 18 | 12 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 106 | 96 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 281 | 343 | 333 | 676 | 52 | 320 | 11 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 397 | 367 | 87 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 48 | 2 | 81 | 12 | 237 | 289 | 281 | 570 | 44 | 270 | 12 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 358 | 332 | 112 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 33 | 0 | 73 | 12 | 337 | 373 | 392 | 765 | 54 | 362 | 9 | 5 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 147 | 136 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 31 | 5 | 287 | 331 | 294 | 625 | 7 | 335 | 15 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 441 | 416 | 119 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 43 | 0 | 44 | 12 | 286 | 319 | 334 | 653 | 48 | 327 | 10 | 5 | 292 | 83 | -9 | +4 | -6 | +2 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 156 | 147 | 52 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 354 | 379 | 429 | 808 | 75 | 387 | 11 | 4 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 612 | 572 | 172 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 48 | 0 | 46 | 14 | 301 | 330 | 350 | 680 | 49 | 331 | 8 | 4 | 300 | 89 | -8 | +4 | +2 | -7 | +13 | 0.4 |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 34 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 276 | 364 | 345 | 708 | 69 | 333 | 18 | 12 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK RAW | FCL Rays | — | 34 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 370 | 485 | 481 | 966 | 111 | 417 | 12 | 18 | 423 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 503 | 463 | 114 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 34 | 61 | 2 | 94 | 15 | 246 | 301 | 292 | 592 | 45 | 284 | 12 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 503 | 443 | 130 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 54 | 44 | 2 | 94 | 15 | 293 | 373 | 345 | 718 | 52 | 326 | 9 | 11 | 329 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 468 | 151 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 55 | 0 | 104 | 17 | 323 | 361 | 363 | 724 | 41 | 361 | 11 | 6 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 505 | 451 | 160 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 43 | 0 | 104 | 17 | 355 | 411 | 397 | 808 | 42 | 388 | 9 | 9 | 362 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 597 | 563 | 170 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 60 | 0 | 63 | 15 | 302 | 333 | 353 | 686 | 52 | 336 | 10 | 4 | 305 | 93 | -5 | +7 | -6 | +2 | +13 | 1.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 597 | 558 | 170 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 29 | 58 | 0 | 63 | 15 | 305 | 338 | 358 | 696 | 54 | 338 | 10 | 5 | 310 | 93 | -5 | +7 | -6 | +2 | +13 | 1.0 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 612 | 572 | 172 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 48 | 0 | 46 | 14 | 301 | 330 | 350 | 680 | 49 | 325 | 8 | 4 | 300 | 89 | -8 | +4 | +2 | -7 | +13 | 0.4 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB RAW | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 612 | 571 | 175 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 48 | 0 | 46 | 14 | 306 | 337 | 356 | 692 | 49 | 331 | 8 | 4 | 305 | 89 | -8 | +4 | +2 | -7 | +13 | 0.4 |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 34 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 267 | 364 | 333 | 697 | 67 | 323 | 18 | 12 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 503 | 462 | 114 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 34 | 61 | 2 | 94 | 15 | 247 | 301 | 292 | 593 | 45 | 281 | 12 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 472 | 151 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 55 | 0 | 104 | 17 | 320 | 361 | 360 | 721 | 40 | 354 | 11 | 6 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 597 | 566 | 170 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 60 | 0 | 63 | 15 | 300 | 333 | 352 | 684 | 51 | 343 | 10 | 4 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 612 | 582 | 172 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 48 | 0 | 46 | 14 | 296 | 330 | 344 | 674 | 48 | 331 | 8 | 4 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 472 | 151 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 55 | 0 | 104 | 17 | 320 | 361 | 360 | 721 | 40 | 354 | 11 | 6 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 597 | 566 | 170 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 60 | 0 | 63 | 15 | 300 | 333 | 352 | 684 | 51 | 343 | 10 | 4 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 612 | 582 | 172 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 48 | 0 | 46 | 14 | 296 | 330 | 344 | 674 | 48 | 331 | 8 | 4 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 596 | 561 | 159 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 58 | 1 | 55 | 9 | 283 | 319 | 337 | 656 | 54 | 310 | 10 | 5 | 295 | 86 | -10 | +7 | +4 | -6 | +13 | 1.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 556 | 523 | 152 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 54 | 1 | 51 | 9 | 287 | 323 | 342 | 665 | 54 | 316 | 10 | 5 | 299 | 86 | -9 | +7 | +4 | -6 | +12 | 0.7 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 550 | 517 | 146 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 55 | 1 | 50 | 9 | 282 | 318 | 334 | 652 | 52 | 310 | 10 | 5 | 293 | 85 | -10 | +6 | +4 | -6 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 539 | 508 | 142 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 55 | 0 | 45 | 8 | 280 | 316 | 329 | 644 | 49 | 309 | 10 | 5 | 290 | 83 | -11 | +6 | +3 | -6 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 525 | 495 | 137 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 55 | 0 | 40 | 7 | 277 | 312 | 322 | 634 | 45 | 307 | 10 | 5 | 286 | 80 | -13 | +5 | +2 | -6 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 510 | 481 | 131 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 55 | 0 | 33 | 6 | 273 | 308 | 313 | 621 | 40 | 305 | 11 | 5 | 281 | 76 | -14 | +4 | +1 | -5 | +11 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 506 | 475 | 136 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 50 | 1 | 46 | 8 | 286 | 322 | 339 | 661 | 52 | 315 | 10 | 5 | 297 | 85 | -9 | +6 | +4 | -5 | +11 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 496 | 469 | 133 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 50 | 0 | 42 | 7 | 284 | 320 | 334 | 653 | 49 | 314 | 10 | 5 | 294 | 83 | -10 | +6 | +3 | -5 | +11 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 483 | 457 | 128 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 50 | 0 | 37 | 6 | 281 | 317 | 327 | 644 | 45 | 313 | 10 | 5 | 290 | 80 | -12 | +5 | +2 | -5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 469 | 444 | 123 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 50 | 0 | 31 | 5 | 278 | 312 | 318 | 631 | 40 | 310 | 11 | 5 | 285 | 76 | -13 | +4 | +1 | -5 | +10 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3007 | 2830 | 817 | 80 | 24 | 2 | 140 | 291 | 1 | 246 | 52 | 289 | 322 | 336 | 658 | 47 | 319 | 10 | 5 | 296 | 84 | -55 | +28 | +5 | -25 | +65 | 1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 612 | 176 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 30 | 63 | 0 | 53 | 11 | 288 | 321 | 332 | 653 | 44 | 318 | 10 | 5 | 296 | 84 | -12 | +6 | +1 | -5 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4931 | 4619 | 1319 | 129 | 37 | 6 | 246 | 504 | 4 | 534 | 100 | 286 | 322 | 333 | 656 | 48 | 317 | 10 | 5 | 293 | 84 | -69 | +36 | +10 | -33 | +81 | 2.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 609 | 174 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 66 | 1 | 70 | 13 | 286 | 322 | 335 | 657 | 49 | 317 | 10 | 5 | 293 | 84 | -12 | +6 | +2 | -6 | +14 | 0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAADurham Bulls · 156 PAwOBA .333 → .344 (+11)K% 9.6% → 10.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.62% | ÷1.057 | ×1.200 | — | — | 10.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.77% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.56% | ÷0.956 | ×0.930 | ×1.041 | ×1.033 | 34.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×1.041 | ×1.033 | 2.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.041 | ×1.033 | 2.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.380 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .333 → .344; ISO .062 → .070; BABIP .369 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 358 PAwOBA .354 → .335 (−19)K% 7.5% → 9.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.54% | ÷0.999 | ×1.220 | — | — | 9.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.82% | ÷1.022 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.22% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 31.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.41% | ÷0.972 | ×0.910 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 4.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.115 | ×0.880 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.34% | ÷0.958 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.29% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 94, 3B 123, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .354 → .335; ISO .056 → .055; BABIP .377 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 147 PAwOBA .354 → .277 (−77)K% 10.9% → 14.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.88% | ÷0.956 | ×1.310 | — | — | 14.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷0.972 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 6.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 40.71% | ÷1.047 | ×0.870 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 32.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.88% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 0.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 91, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .354 → .277; ISO .008 → .007; BABIP .416 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 397 PAwOBA .309 → .253 (−55)K% 8.8% → 12.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.82% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 12.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.57% | ÷1.035 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.59% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.990 | 23.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.82% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.990 | 2.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷0.938 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×0.990 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.075 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 114, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .309 → .253; ISO .048 → .044; BABIP .317 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 106 PAwOBA .365 → .301 (−65)K% 8.5% → 11.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.49% | ÷0.950 | ×1.310 | — | — | 11.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.09% | ÷1.060 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 8.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 27.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.047 | ×0.780 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 3.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.103 | ×0.850 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.066 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 121, K 90, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .365 → .301; ISO .067 → .056; BABIP .362 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Rays · 34 PAwOBA .425 → .325 (−100)K% 11.8% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.956 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 11.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.43% | ÷1.023 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 23.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷0.933 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 9.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 105, 2B 87, 3B 101, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .425 → .325; ISO .111 → .089; BABIP .417 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).