Tyler Tolbert
CF Kansas City Royals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 591 | .239/.322/.323 | 4 | 53 | 51 | — | .212/.276/.286 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAAKC | 115 | .265/.345/.408 | 3 | 11 | 70 | — | .220/.291/.320 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLBKC | 57 | .280/.333/.380 | 1 | 21 | 97 | 0.5 | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAAKC | 86 | .260/.365/.288 | 0 | 8 | 63 | — | .247/.318/.273 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLBKC | 148 | .285/.350/.392 | 3 | 22 | 109 | 0.5 | |
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBKC | 177 | .229/.299/.327 | 3 | 20 | 81 | 0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 30 | MLBKC | 172 | .226/.295/.319 | 3 | 17 | 78 | 0.0 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 44 / POW 38
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 174 | 140 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 41 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 221 | 355 | 250 | 605 | 29 | 304 | 24 | 13 | 287 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 19 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 188 | 316 | 438 | 753 | 250 | 222 | 32 | 16 | 335 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 347 | 283 | 62 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 95 | 8 | 49 | 2 | 219 | 354 | 357 | 711 | 138 | 308 | 27 | 15 | 323 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 517 | 447 | 100 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 55 | 125 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 224 | 316 | 340 | 656 | 116 | 297 | 24 | 11 | 294 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL | Brisbane Bandits | — | 152 | 128 | 38 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 32 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 297 | 404 | 430 | 834 | 133 | 383 | 21 | 15 | 374 | 140 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 574 | 518 | 143 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 40 | 127 | 8 | 50 | 8 | 276 | 337 | 419 | 756 | 143 | 346 | 22 | 7 | 333 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 90 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 141 | 247 | 167 | 414 | 26 | 208 | 28 | 10 | 205 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 462 | 393 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 103 | 10 | 40 | 4 | 260 | 340 | 354 | 694 | 94 | 340 | 22 | 8 | 304 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 39 | 36 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 222 | 282 | 333 | 615 | 111 | 296 | 23 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | — | 57 | 50 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 280 | 333 | 380 | 713 | 100 | 325 | 19 | 2 | 307 | 97 | -0 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 115 | 98 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 265 | 345 | 408 | 754 | 143 | 343 | 26 | 8 | 326 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | — | 148 | 130 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 285 | 350 | 392 | 742 | 108 | 351 | 21 | 8 | 324 | 109 | +2 | +3 | -0 | -3 | +3 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 86 | 73 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 260 | 365 | 288 | 652 | 27 | 365 | 24 | 14 | 306 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 205 | 180 | 51 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 42 | 4 | 43 | 6 | 283 | 345 | 389 | 734 | 106 | 343 | 20 | 6 | 320 | 102 | +1 | +6 | -1 | -2 | +4 | 0.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 174 | 149 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 59 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 154 | 254 | 174 | 429 | 20 | 230 | 34 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 19 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 412 | 675 | 235 | 184 | 42 | 11 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 347 | 301 | 49 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 133 | 8 | 49 | 2 | 163 | 263 | 252 | 516 | 90 | 266 | 38 | 10 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 517 | 468 | 88 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 34 | 156 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 188 | 250 | 280 | 530 | 92 | 264 | 30 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 574 | 530 | 124 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 153 | 8 | 50 | 8 | 234 | 283 | 353 | 636 | 119 | 305 | 27 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 90 | 81 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 123 | 202 | 148 | 350 | 25 | 200 | 34 | 7 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 462 | 406 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 127 | 10 | 40 | 4 | 229 | 290 | 313 | 603 | 84 | 297 | 27 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 57 | 50 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 280 | 333 | 380 | 713 | 100 | 325 | 19 | 2 | 312 | 97 | -0 | +3 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 115 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 220 | 291 | 320 | 611 | 100 | 296 | 31 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 148 | 130 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 285 | 350 | 392 | 742 | 108 | 351 | 21 | 8 | 329 | 109 | +2 | +3 | -0 | -3 | +3 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 86 | 77 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 247 | 318 | 273 | 590 | 26 | 350 | 29 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 174 | 149 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 59 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 154 | 254 | 174 | 429 | 20 | 247 | 34 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK RAW | AZL Royals | — | 174 | 140 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 41 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 221 | 355 | 250 | 605 | 29 | 304 | 24 | 13 | 287 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 366 | 318 | 52 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 141 | 8 | 53 | 2 | 164 | 263 | 261 | 524 | 97 | 274 | 39 | 10 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 366 | 299 | 65 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 54 | 101 | 8 | 53 | 2 | 217 | 352 | 361 | 713 | 144 | 304 | 28 | 15 | 324 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 669 | 609 | 114 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 44 | 202 | 5 | 75 | 1 | 187 | 248 | 279 | 527 | 92 | 270 | 30 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 669 | 575 | 138 | 29 | 11 | 6 | 78 | 157 | 5 | 75 | 1 | 240 | 336 | 360 | 696 | 120 | 317 | 23 | 12 | 312 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 574 | 530 | 124 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 153 | 8 | 50 | 8 | 234 | 283 | 353 | 636 | 119 | 310 | 27 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 574 | 518 | 143 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 40 | 127 | 8 | 50 | 8 | 276 | 337 | 419 | 756 | 143 | 346 | 22 | 7 | 333 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 591 | 523 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 168 | 13 | 53 | 7 | 212 | 276 | 285 | 561 | 73 | 303 | 28 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 591 | 507 | 121 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 137 | 13 | 53 | 7 | 239 | 322 | 323 | 645 | 85 | 318 | 23 | 8 | 287 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 172 | 150 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 240 | 305 | 340 | 645 | 100 | 317 | 27 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 172 | 148 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 270 | 341 | 399 | 740 | 128 | 336 | 24 | 6 | 319 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 234 | 207 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 56 | 1 | 30 | 4 | 271 | 338 | 348 | 686 | 77 | 356 | 24 | 9 | 305 | 92 | -2 | +4 | -0 | -3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 234 | 203 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 52 | 1 | 30 | 4 | 276 | 355 | 355 | 710 | 79 | 356 | 22 | 10 | 318 | 92 | -2 | +4 | -0 | -3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 174 | 152 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 59 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 151 | 254 | 171 | 425 | 20 | 230 | 34 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 366 | 320 | 52 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 141 | 8 | 53 | 2 | 163 | 263 | 259 | 523 | 97 | 262 | 39 | 10 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 669 | 615 | 114 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 44 | 202 | 5 | 75 | 1 | 185 | 248 | 276 | 524 | 91 | 264 | 30 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 574 | 533 | 124 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 153 | 8 | 50 | 8 | 233 | 283 | 351 | 634 | 118 | 305 | 27 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 591 | 540 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 168 | 13 | 53 | 7 | 206 | 276 | 276 | 552 | 70 | 281 | 28 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 172 | 156 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 231 | 305 | 327 | 632 | 96 | 306 | 27 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 234 | 211 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 56 | 1 | 30 | 4 | 265 | 338 | 341 | 679 | 76 | 350 | 24 | 9 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 591 | 540 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 168 | 13 | 53 | 7 | 206 | 276 | 276 | 552 | 70 | 281 | 28 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 172 | 156 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 231 | 305 | 327 | 632 | 96 | 306 | 27 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 234 | 211 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 56 | 1 | 30 | 4 | 265 | 338 | 341 | 679 | 76 | 350 | 24 | 9 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | KC | 100% | 284 | 256 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 69 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 232 | 301 | 334 | 635 | 102 | 295 | 24 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -6 | +4 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | KC | 100% | 177 | 160 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 229 | 299 | 327 | 626 | 98 | 292 | 24 | 7 | 284 | 81 | -4 | +2 | -0 | +1 | +4 | 0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | KC | 82% | 210 | 189 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 52 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 228 | 298 | 326 | 623 | 97 | 293 | 25 | 8 | 283 | 78 | -6 | +3 | -2 | +1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | KC | 82% | 172 | 155 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 42 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 226 | 295 | 319 | 614 | 93 | 290 | 24 | 8 | 280 | 78 | -5 | +2 | -2 | +1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 377 | 335 | 86 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 84 | 6 | 60 | 9 | 257 | 322 | 358 | 680 | 101 | 319 | 22 | 7 | 301 | 59 | -4 | +8 | -2 | -1 | +8 | 0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 148 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 45 | 145 | 10 | 103 | 16 | 256 | 321 | 356 | 677 | 100 | 318 | 22 | 7 | 301 | 59 | -7 | +14 | -4 | -2 | +14 | 1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3167 | 2835 | 595 | 96 | 29 | 34 | 210 | 921 | 53 | 360 | 36 | 210 | 277 | 300 | 577 | 90 | 295 | 29 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -9 | +11 | -3 | -1 | +13 | 1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 122 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 43 | 189 | 11 | 74 | 7 | 210 | 277 | 301 | 578 | 91 | 294 | 29 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -10 | +12 | -3 | -1 | +14 | 1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 86 PAwOBA .299 → .262 (−38)K% 24.4% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.42% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 31.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 3.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .299 → .262; ISO .027 → .024; BABIP .365 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 115 PAwOBA .323 → .272 (−51)K% 26.1% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷1.007 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.83% | ÷0.935 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷1.108 | ×0.930 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 23.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.35% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 6.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.41% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.09% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .323 → .272; ISO .143 → .111; BABIP .343 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 462 PAwOBA .297 → .255 (−42)K% 22.3% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.29% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.23% | ÷1.056 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.86% | ÷1.073 | ×0.920 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 22.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.24% | ÷1.025 | ×0.840 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 6.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.38% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .297 → .255; ISO .094 → .085; BABIP .340 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 90 PAwOBA .201 → .169 (−32)K% 27.8% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.98% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | ×1.035 | ×1.018 | 16.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.77% | ÷0.958 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×1.018 | 3.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.111 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 101, 2B 92, 3B 87, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .201 → .169; ISO .026 → .023; BABIP .208 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 574 PAwOBA .326 → .276 (−50)K% 22.1% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.13% | ÷1.014 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.97% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.32% | ÷1.055 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×0.998 | 22.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.14% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×1.040 | ×0.998 | 4.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.062 | ×0.940 | ×1.040 | ×0.998 | 2.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.872 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.34% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 111, 2B 126, 3B 112, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .326 → .276; ISO .143 → .123; BABIP .346 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 517 PAwOBA .290 → .234 (−55)K% 24.2% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.18% | ÷1.016 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷1.125 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.50% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.21% | ÷1.028 | ×0.810 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 4.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.11% | ÷0.920 | ×0.850 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 2.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.24% | ÷1.047 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.94% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 103, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .290 → .234; ISO .116 → .097; BABIP .297 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AColumbia Fireflies · 347 PAwOBA .317 → .235 (−82)K% 27.4% → 38.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.38% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.41% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 9.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.31% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.28% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×0.990 | 18.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.32% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×0.990 | 4.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.72% | ÷1.055 | ×0.910 | ×0.987 | ×0.990 | 3.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.66% | ÷1.237 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.70% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 103, 2B 92, 3B 111, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .317 → .235; ISO .138 → .098; BABIP .308 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 19 PAwOBA .326 → .238 (−88)K% 31.6% → 42.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.58% | ÷1.013 | ×1.350 | — | — | 42.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷0.988 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 11.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 8.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 8.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 8.18% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 98, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .326 → .238; ISO .250 → .182; BABIP .222 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .