Seth Stephenson — OGILVIE

Seth StephensonOF Erie SeaWolves

Age 25 R/R 5'8" / 165 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION286 act + 190 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .265 / .284

PA190

HR2

SB19

K%26

BB%5

BABIP263

ISO87

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	33	30	5	0	0	0	1	12	2	9	0	167	242	167	409		278	36	3	199	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	33	30	7	0	0	0	1	8	2	9	0	233	303	233	536		318	24	3	258	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	2 teams	—	505	440	101	16	6	2	27	158	30	70	15	230	318	307	625	77	349	31	5	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	2 teams	—	505	425	119	21	9	4	42	108	30	70	15	280	384	400	784	120	363	21	8	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	477	427	91	12	3	5	25	125	19	60	9	213	287	290	577	77	288	26	5	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	477	415	109	12	3	5	37	85	19	60	9	263	350	342	692	80	318	18	8	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	2 teams	—	508	456	109	18	6	9	22	103	23	49	6	239	307	364	671	125	289	20	4	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	2 teams	—	508	442	124	21	6	8	36	72	23	49	6	281	365	410	775	129	319	14	7	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AA	DET	—	286	262	51	13	1	1	15	85	9	41	5	195	262	263	526	69	284	30	5	237	40	-20	+6	+0	-2	+8	-0.7
YTD	25	AA	DET	—	286	254	59	16	1	1	22	66	9	41	5	232	315	315	630	83	310	23	8	291	81	-6	+6	+0	-2	+8	0.7
ROS	25	AA	DET	2%	190	172	34	7	1	2	10	50	6	19	2	197	265	284	549	87	266	26	5	252	51	-11	+3	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
ROS	25	MLB	DET	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		262	25	0	224	30	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	AA	DET	—	290	266	52	13	1	1	15	86	9	41	5	195	262	263	525	68	285	30	5	237	39	-20	+6	+0	-2	+8	-0.7
TOT	25	AA	DET	—	476	434	85	20	2	3	25	135	15	60	7	196	263	271	535	76	275	28	5	243	44	-30	+9	+0	-3	+14	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	DET	31%	365	331	68	14	2	5	20	95	11	31	4	205	273	305	579	100	269	26	5	262	59	-17	+5	+0	-2	+10	-0.4
2028	27	MLB	DET	42%	388	351	74	15	2	6	23	100	11	33	4	211	281	316	597	105	270	26	6	267	62	-17	+5	+0	-2	+11	-0.3
2029	28	MLB	DET	48%	401	363	75	15	2	6	24	104	11	32	4	207	276	309	585	102	271	26	6	268	64	-16	+5	-1	-2	+11	-0.3
2027	26	MLB	DET	31%	113	103	20	4	1	1	6	29	3	10	1	194	259	282	540	87	264	26	5	236	39	-8	+2	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
2028	27	MLB	DET	42%	163	148	30	6	1	2	9	42	5	14	2	203	272	297	569	95	266	26	6	242	43	-10	+2	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
2029	28	MLB	DET	48%	192	173	36	7	1	3	12	50	5	15	2	208	279	312	591	104	267	26	6	245	45	-12	+2	-0	-1	+5	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	472	428	87	17	3	6	27	122	13	39	5	203	271	299	570	96	267	26	6	241	43	-30	+6	-0	-3	+13	-1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	119	23	4	8	37	168	18	54	7	202	270	295	565	93	266	26	6	241	43	-42	+8	-0	-4	+18	-2.0
Career	—			—	2867	2570	557	97	22	35	152	747	113	303	44	217	290	312	602	96	289	26	5	268	63	-118	+43	-1	-17	+81	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	126	22	5	8	34	169	26	69	10	216	289	312	601	96	289	26	5	268	63	-27	+10	-0	-4	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	33	30	7	0	0	0	1	8	2	9	0	233	303	233	536		318	24	3	258	55	-2	+2	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	22	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	68	57	17	4	1	0	5	19	6	8	2	298	412	404	815	105	447	28	7	375	145	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	437	368	102	17	8	4	37	89	24	62	13	277	380	399	779	122	351	20	8	349	125	+13	+7	—	—	+12	3.3
2024	23	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	477	415	109	12	3	5	37	85	19	60	9	263	350	342	692	80	318	18	8	317	100	+0	+8	—	—	+14	2.3
2025	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	81	71	18	5	1	0	6	10	2	7	1	254	329	352	681	99	290	12	7	303	90	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	24	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	427	371	106	16	5	8	30	62	21	42	5	286	372	420	793	135	325	15	7	354	129	+14	+6	—	—	+12	3.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#2Tony Womacklast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,230 PA	7	3,230	23	169	269	310	351	-8	-7	3.3	3.3
	/162	664	5	35	269	310	351	-1.7	-1.5	0.7	pk7: 3
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	5	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
#4Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	/162	664	1	37	251	310	309	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.7
	/162	664	4	56	245	312	332	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	475	7	39	208	274	310	-3	+0	-0.4	-0.2
	/162	664	10	55	208	274	310	-4.0	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Seth Stephenson (OGILVIE)	25	55	40	60	30	196/263/271	76	275	3	60	28%	5%	44	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2021 · AA	26	45→52	42→45	58→65	40	218/275/315	97	285	10	40	26%	5%	64	-0.8	211/265/329	118	288	12	34	30%	5%	63	-0.8	197/253/317	120	268	14	44	31%	4%	53	-0.7
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	43→48	38→40	58→65	41	207/257/286	79	287	5	32	29%	6%	47	-1.9	194/251/270	76	305	5	17	35%	7%	41	-2.3	158/224/216	58	272	3	12	40%	7%	14	-2.0
✕Darren Ford 2012 · MLB	26	45→53	42→45	59→65	40	220/272/324	104	302	9	34	29%	6%	64	-0.8	227/272/311	84	309	6	39	27%	6%	59	-1.1	229/273/299	70	312	5	48	27%	5%	54	-0.8
✕Jeff Kobernus 2013 · AA	25	53→62	37→40	60→65	39	250/280/320	69	318	4	37	22%	4%	65	-0.7	248/294/317	69	316	4	37	21%	6%	70	-0.3	245/295/303	58	311	3	39	21%	6%	65	-0.4
●Tyler Graham 2009 · A	25	50→56	37→40	60→65	41	236/282/306	71	304	4	39	23%	5%	63	-0.9	256/300/336	80	328	6	41	23%	5%	79	+0.3	274/325/343	69	348	2	52	20%	5%	87	+0.5
✕Rafael Bautista 2017 · AA	24	51→53	35→30	61→60	43	242/284/300	58	297	3	36	20%	5%	62	-0.9	228/272/288	60	287	3	23	20%	5%	53	-1.5	222/261/287	65	276	5	13	21%	4%	45	-0.7
✕Adam Engel 2017 · AAA	25	44→48	41→50	61→60	40	211/268/314	102	303	7	33	31%	6%	59	-1.1	206/263/323	117	291	10	20	31%	6%	60	-1.0	224/280/353	129	300	12	21	28%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Kevin Mattison 2011 · AAA	25	38→48	41→45	59→60	38	190/240/286	96	256	9	33	29%	5%	41	-2.3	206/264/320	114	295	8	26	31%	6%	59	-1.1	200/262/319	119	298	8	26	34%	6%	56	-1.1
✕Josh Prince 2013 · AA	25	45→49	38→40	53→60	45	214/273/298	84	282	5	29	25%	7%	57	-1.2	207/278/298	91	277	8	28	26%	8%	60	-1.0	220/298/303	83	297	8	28	26%	10%	67	-0.3
✕Billy Hamilton 2016 · MLB	25	48→58	39→40	69→70	46	229/274/313	84	275	6	61	19%	6%	61	-1.0	239/294/326	87	300	5	55	21%	7%	73	-0.1	240/299/324	84	307	4	55	22%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Mike Antico 2023 · AA	25	41→42	45	62→60	44	206/273/330	124	274	12	36	29%	8%	67	-0.5	214/277/336	122	294	13	34	30%	7%	70	-0.3	214/278/335	120	296	13	35	31%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Derrick Robinson 2012 · AA	24	46→50	35→40	60→65	42	217/258/271	54	281	3	42	23%	5%	43	-2.2	226/278/285	59	297	3	24	23%	7%	56	-1.3	237/289/277	40	305	1	22	21%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Eric Farris 2011 · AAA	25	52→58	39→40	59→60	44	249/280/328	80	278	6	32	14%	4%	68	-0.5	238/275/315	77	272	6	24	14%	4%	62	-0.9	236/274/306	70	270	5	26	14%	4%	56	-1.2
✕Cam Eden 2023 · AA	25	41→48	46→40	61→65	39	201/273/325	124	314	14	38	38%	7%	66	-0.6	201/271/292	91	300	8	42	33%	7%	56	-1.3	191/263/268	77	283	6	49	32%	7%	44	-1.2
✕Max Schuemann 2022 · AAA	25	44→47	40→45	59→60	44	212/288/308	96	283	8	32	26%	7%	68	-0.5	223/314/344	121	303	12	25	28%	9%	89	+0.9	220/317/335	116	299	12	22	28%	10%	86	+0.6
✕Jeremias Pineda 2016 · AAA	25	49→57	36→30	60→65	38	230/279/288	58	327	4	41	30%	5%	56	-1.3	226/283/282	56	351	2	37	33%	7%	57	-1.2	236/296/283	47	365	1	40	33%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Duke Ellis 2023 · AA	25	45→51	40→45	60→80	37	211/267/295	84	331	8	37	37%	6%	54	-1.4	217/276/309	92	331	8	53	34%	7%	62	-0.9	227/278/331	104	316	10	91	30%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Kenny Wilson 2015 · AAA	25	46→51	38→40	56→60	38	215/268/293	79	305	4	27	30%	5%	54	-1.4	224/281/313	89	311	6	26	28%	6%	65	-0.7	195/262/289	94	302	8	22	35%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Tyler Tolbert 2023 · A	25	38→46	39→45	70→65	41	184/250/276	91	280	5	40	34%	7%	43	-2.2	210/264/313	103	293	8	40	30%	6%	58	-1.2	217/276/298	80	302	7	58	29%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Cade Gotta 2018 · AAA	26	48→51	40→45	56→55	44	233/278/328	96	292	7	29	22%	6%	67	-0.5	237/296/347	110	305	8	27	23%	8%	80	+0.4	243/312/366	124	313	7	33	23%	9%	90	+0.3