Seth Stephenson — OGILVIE

Seth StephensonOF Erie SeaWolves

Age 25 R/R 5'8" / 165 lbs AA HR +5%H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2027

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .294 / .326

PA320

HR5

SB32

K%23

BB%5

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

40→40

SPD

60→60

EYE

39↘30

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$7M		$2M	-$4M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	33	30	5	0	0	0	1	12	2	9	0	.167	.242	.167	.409	.000	.278	36	3	.203	14	-3	+2	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2023	22	A	2 teams	505	438	101	17	6	3	29	153	30	70	15	.231	.322	.317	.639	.087	.343	30	6	.285	77	-13	+8	+0	-3	+14	0.6
2024	23	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	477	426	93	10	3	4	26	114	19	60	9	.218	.293	.284	.577	.066	.287	24	5	.256	54	-25	+8	+0	-3	+14	-0.6
2025	24	A+	2 teams	508	455	112	18	6	8	23	95	23	49	6	.246	.315	.365	.680	.119	.294	19	5	.288	79	-12	+7	+0	-3	+14	0.7
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AA	Erie SeaWolves	66	60	12	3	1	1	2	19	4	12	0	.200	.273	.333	.606	.133	.275	29	3	.265	61	-3	+2	+0	-0	+2	0.1
ROS	25	MLB	DET	254	229	51	9	2	4	13	59	10	20	2	.223	.294	.332	.626	.109	.282	23	5	.282	74	-7	+3	+0	-2	+7	0.1
TOT	25	MLB	DET	320	289	63	12	3	5	15	78	14	32	2	.218	.289	.332	.621	.114	.280	24	5	.279	71	-10	+6	+0	-2	+9	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	DET	365	328	75	13	3	6	21	72	13	26	3	.229	.301	.341	.643	.113	.274	20	6	.295	84	-7	+4	+0	-2	+10	0.6
2028	27	MLB 26%	DET	388	348	80	14	3	7	24	77	13	26	3	.230	.304	.348	.652	.118	.276	20	6	.297	85	-6	+4	+0	-2	+11	0.6
2029	28	MLB 38%	DET	401	360	83	15	3	7	25	81	13	24	2	.231	.304	.347	.651	.117	.277	20	6	.297	86	-6	+4	-1	-2	+11	0.6
2030	29	MLB 47%	DET	400	358	82	15	3	7	26	82	13	22	2	.229	.305	.346	.651	.117	.276	20	6	.296	85	-7	+4	-1	-2	+11	0.4
2031	30	MLB 56%	DET	398	357	81	14	3	7	25	83	13	20	1	.227	.301	.342	.643	.115	.275	21	6	.293	82	-8	+4	-2	-2	+11	0.3
2032	31	MLB 66%	DET	387	347	79	14	3	7	25	83	12	17	1	.228	.302	.346	.648	.118	.274	21	6	.289	80	-9	+3	-3	-2	+11	-0.0
2033	32	MLB 76%	DET	370	331	74	13	3	6	24	81	12	14	0	.224	.300	.335	.635	.112	.273	22	6	.285	76	-10	+3	-4	-2	+10	-0.2
2034	33	MLB 93%	DET	341	305	67	11	3	5	22	77	11	11	0	.220	.296	.325	.620	.105	.272	23	6	.280	72	-11	+2	-4	-2	+10	-0.5
2035	34	MLB	DET	298	268	57	10	2	4	19	70	9	9	0	.213	.287	.310	.597	.097	.271	23	6	.274	68	-11	+2	-5	-2	+8	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5125	4580	1040	173	43	75	303	1139	193	377	44	.227	.303	.333	.635	.106	.284	22	6	.285	77	-136	+58	-20	-31	+145	1.7
/ 162G	—			650	581	132	22	5	10	38	144	24	48	6	.227	.301	.334	.635	.107	.284	22	6	.285	77	-17	+7	-2	-4	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	33	30	7	0	0	0	1	8	2	9	0	.233	.303	.233	.536	.000	.318	24	3	.258	55	-2	+2	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	22	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	68	57	17	4	1	0	5	19	6	8	2	.298	.412	.404	.815	.105	.447	28	7	.375	145	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	437	368	102	17	8	4	37	89	24	62	13	.277	.380	.399	.779	.122	.351	20	8	.349	125	+13	+7	—	—	+12	3.3
2024	23	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	477	415	109	12	3	5	37	85	19	60	9	.263	.350	.342	.692	.080	.318	18	8	.317	100	+0	+8	—	—	+14	2.3
2025	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	81	71	18	5	1	0	6	10	2	7	1	.254	.329	.352	.681	.099	.290	12	7	.303	90	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	24	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	427	371	106	16	5	8	30	62	21	42	5	.286	.372	.420	.793	.135	.325	15	7	.354	129	+14	+6	—	—	+12	3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Seth Stephenson (OGILVIE)	25	55	40	60	30	.225/.294/.326	.101	.284	5	19	23%	5%	76	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Max Schuemann 2022 · AAA	25	44→47	40→45	58→60	44	.213/.287/.306	.094	.282	7	30	26%	7%	67	-0.5	.222/.313/.336	.114	.305	11	25	28%	9%	86	+0.8	.220/.319/.329	.110	.303	11	22	28%	10%	85	+0.5
✕Tyler Graham 2010 · AAA	26	48→54	40	58→65	41	.231/.276/.313	.082	.295	8	36	24%	5%	62	-0.9	.254/.302/.331	.077	.323	5	42	22%	5%	78	+0.2	.264/.316/.331	.067	.335	2	52	20%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Jeff Kobernus 2013 · AA	25	52→61	37→40	59→65	39	.247/.276/.317	.070	.313	4	35	22%	4%	63	-0.9	.251/.294/.321	.070	.317	4	38	21%	5%	71	-0.3	.245/.294/.305	.060	.310	3	39	21%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Eury Pérez 2015 · AAA	25	57→65	38→40	59→65	40	.274/.307/.356	.082	.328	5	33	18%	3%	86	+0.8	.260/.304/.343	.083	.320	5	36	19%	4%	82	+0.5	.292/.329/.379	.087	.355	3	37	18%	4%	97	+0.5
✕Darren Ford 2011 · AA	25	46→53	40→45	59→65	43	.219/.278/.315	.097	.303	7	32	29%	7%	64	-0.8	.225/.275/.318	.093	.307	7	36	27%	6%	63	-0.8	.222/.271/.297	.075	.302	6	49	27%	6%	53	-0.7
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	45→51	39→40	59→65	42	.217/.269/.305	.088	.291	6	33	27%	6%	57	-1.2	.198/.256/.280	.082	.303	6	18	34%	7%	46	-2.0	.164/.230/.230	.066	.276	3	12	39%	7%	20	-1.8
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2021 · AA	26	46→49	41→45	59→65	41	.224/.281/.320	.096	.289	10	41	25%	5%	67	-0.5	.211/.266/.327	.116	.288	12	34	30%	5%	63	-0.8	.196/.253/.315	.120	.265	14	44	31%	5%	52	-0.7
✕Adam Engel 2017 · AAA	25	44→48	40→50	61→60	40	.209/.265/.309	.100	.296	7	33	31%	6%	57	-1.2	.206/.263/.325	.119	.289	10	21	31%	6%	61	-1.0	.227/.287/.366	.138	.305	13	23	28%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Austin Wates 2015 · AAA	26	54→57	39→40	60→55	47	.255/.312/.344	.089	.316	5	31	20%	7%	85	+0.7	.227/.278/.304	.077	.288	4	18	21%	6%	61	-1.0	.206/.251/.260	.054	.265	1	6	22%	4%	34	-1.6
✕Darin Mastroianni 2011 · AA	25	54→59	37→40	61→60	50	.253/.319/.328	.075	.322	3	35	21%	8%	85	+0.7	.241/.304/.322	.081	.306	4	34	21%	8%	76	+0.1	.229/.292/.302	.074	.291	3	39	21%	7%	63	-0.5
✕Tito Polo 2019 · AA	24	47→53	43→45	57→60	40	.231/.284/.344	.113	.304	11	29	27%	5%	75	-0.0	.221/.269/.322	.101	.291	8	22	25%	5%	62	-0.9	.214/.242/.301	.087	.275	4	25	23%	3%	40	-0.5
✕José Caballero 2022 · AA	25	44→45	44→45	55→70	47	.218/.294/.336	.118	.284	11	30	26%	8%	77	+0.1	.223/.328/.341	.118	.288	11	40	24%	11%	94	+1.3	.229/.321/.344	.115	.305	10	63	26%	9%	87	+0.6
✕Jon Berti 2015 · AA	25	49→59	38→45	57→60	45	.229/.287/.309	.080	.289	4	29	21%	6%	66	-0.6	.231/.286/.315	.084	.288	5	29	20%	6%	67	-0.5	.271/.353/.399	.128	.341	12	35	22%	9%	114	+1.4
✕Garrett Hampson 2020 · MLB	25	51→56	42→45	59→60	46	.246/.298/.351	.105	.307	8	29	22%	7%	82	+0.5	.222/.279/.338	.116	.291	11	22	26%	7%	71	-0.3	.230/.295/.332	.102	.301	8	22	25%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Leo German 2017 · AAA	24	49→57	43→45	60→55	40	.237/.283/.352	.115	.300	10	27	24%	4%	76	+0.1	.264/.299/.349	.085	.345	6	23	24%	4%	81	+0.4	.282/.318/.363	.081	.362	7	19	23%	4%	88	+0.6
✕Cade Gotta 2018 · AAA	26	48→51	41→45	56→55	43	.233/.277/.335	.102	.291	8	28	22%	6%	69	-0.4	.237/.295/.345	.108	.305	8	28	23%	8%	79	+0.3	.243/.313/.361	.118	.315	7	33	23%	9%	89	+0.3
✕Tyson Auer 2011 · AAA	25	54→60	38→40	57→60	43	.256/.301/.337	.082	.330	5	29	23%	6%	79	+0.3	.240/.275/.317	.077	.318	4	24	24%	4%	62	-0.9	.247/.271/.309	.061	.330	1	27	25%	3%	53	-1.0
●Wynton Bernard 2016 · AA	25	57→60	39→45	56→60	45	.268/.311/.361	.093	.324	5	26	19%	6%	89	+0.9	.243/.286/.336	.093	.303	7	27	21%	5%	72	-0.2	.251/.299/.377	.127	.306	12	37	21%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Eric Farris 2011 · AAA	25	52→58	38→40	59→60	44	.248/.279/.327	.079	.277	6	31	13%	4%	66	-0.6	.239/.275/.316	.077	.273	6	25	14%	4%	63	-0.9	.237/.274/.306	.069	.271	5	26	14%	4%	57	-1.1
✕Vidal Bruján 2023 · MLB	25	45→55	44→45	56→65	47	.223/.281/.343	.120	.263	12	36	20%	7%	73	-0.1	.225/.290/.340	.115	.276	10	25	21%	7%	76	+0.1	.220/.294/.333	.113	.270	9	23	21%	8%	71	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)