Corey Rosier
RF Worcester Red Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 551 | .280/.353/.414 | 7 | 57 | 89 | — | .257/.310/.370 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AABOS | 303 | .195/.284/.278 | 3 | 19 | 30 | — | .175/.241/.240 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AABOS | 361 | .252/.360/.382 | 7 | 18 | 65 | — | .208/.288/.304 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBBOS | 16 | .225/.301/.329 | 0 | 1 | 75 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBBOS | 69 | .224/.300/.328 | 1 | 2 | 74 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 141 | 118 | 46 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 390 | 474 | 585 | 1.059 | 195 | 434 | 14 | 13 | 451 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 466 | 388 | 94 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 65 | 99 | 7 | 40 | 5 | 242 | 360 | 371 | 731 | 129 | 306 | 21 | 14 | 331 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 44 | 39 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 282 | 364 | 359 | 723 | 77 | 379 | 23 | 9 | 332 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 400 | 358 | 102 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 86 | 4 | 49 | 7 | 285 | 352 | 439 | 790 | 154 | 354 | 22 | 8 | 348 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 107 | 93 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 258 | 355 | 344 | 699 | 86 | 324 | 18 | 12 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 187 | 164 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 45 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 177 | 270 | 262 | 532 | 85 | 227 | 24 | 11 | 247 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 116 | 102 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 225 | 307 | 304 | 611 | 78 | 275 | 20 | 9 | 278 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 296 | 249 | 62 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 56 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 249 | 366 | 361 | 728 | 112 | 303 | 19 | 14 | 335 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 65 | 57 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 474 | 807 | 211 | 310 | 23 | 9 | 344 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 141 | 124 | 42 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 339 | 401 | 516 | 918 | 177 | 382 | 19 | 9 | 392 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 466 | 415 | 83 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 123 | 7 | 40 | 5 | 200 | 280 | 299 | 579 | 99 | 260 | 26 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 44 | 40 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 318 | 300 | 618 | 50 | 339 | 27 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 400 | 368 | 95 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 105 | 4 | 49 | 7 | 258 | 309 | 378 | 687 | 120 | 337 | 26 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 187 | 170 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 54 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 159 | 227 | 224 | 451 | 65 | 211 | 29 | 7 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 116 | 105 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 200 | 263 | 267 | 530 | 67 | 238 | 23 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 296 | 263 | 54 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 66 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 205 | 292 | 293 | 584 | 87 | 257 | 22 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 65 | 59 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 270 | 356 | 626 | 136 | 272 | 29 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 141 | 124 | 42 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 339 | 401 | 516 | 918 | 177 | 398 | 19 | 9 | 392 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 141 | 118 | 46 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 390 | 474 | 585 | 1.059 | 195 | 434 | 14 | 13 | 451 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 466 | 415 | 83 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 123 | 7 | 40 | 5 | 200 | 280 | 299 | 579 | 99 | 267 | 26 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 466 | 388 | 94 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 65 | 99 | 7 | 40 | 5 | 242 | 360 | 371 | 731 | 129 | 306 | 21 | 14 | 331 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 551 | 508 | 130 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 32 | 145 | 6 | 57 | 9 | 256 | 308 | 368 | 676 | 112 | 344 | 26 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 551 | 490 | 137 | 29 | 8 | 7 | 50 | 115 | 6 | 57 | 9 | 280 | 353 | 414 | 768 | 135 | 350 | 21 | 9 | 342 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 303 | 276 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 81 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 170 | 234 | 232 | 466 | 62 | 228 | 27 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 303 | 266 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 68 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 195 | 284 | 278 | 562 | 83 | 246 | 22 | 10 | 259 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 361 | 322 | 67 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 85 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 208 | 288 | 304 | 592 | 96 | 265 | 24 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 361 | 306 | 77 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 48 | 71 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 252 | 360 | 382 | 743 | 131 | 304 | 20 | 13 | 337 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 141 | 127 | 42 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 331 | 401 | 504 | 905 | 173 | 382 | 19 | 9 | 392 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 466 | 417 | 83 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 123 | 7 | 40 | 5 | 199 | 280 | 297 | 577 | 98 | 260 | 26 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 551 | 508 | 130 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 32 | 145 | 6 | 57 | 9 | 256 | 308 | 368 | 676 | 112 | 337 | 26 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 303 | 277 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 81 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 170 | 234 | 231 | 465 | 61 | 221 | 27 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 361 | 322 | 67 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 85 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 208 | 288 | 304 | 592 | 96 | 260 | 24 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 303 | 277 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 81 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 170 | 234 | 231 | 465 | 61 | 221 | 27 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 361 | 322 | 67 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 85 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 208 | 288 | 304 | 592 | 96 | 260 | 24 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 10% | 380 | 340 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 91 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 217 | 294 | 318 | 612 | 101 | 278 | 24 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 301 | 329 | 630 | 104 | 289 | 25 | 6 | 286 | 75 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 31% | 222 | 199 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 54 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 217 | 293 | 317 | 611 | 101 | 278 | 24 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -7 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +5 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 31% | 69 | 62 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 300 | 328 | 628 | 104 | 288 | 25 | 9 | 285 | 74 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 69 | 62 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 304 | 323 | 627 | 97 | 295 | 25 | 9 | 285 | 71 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 131 | 28 | 0 | 9 | 57 | 160 | 9 | 19 | 9 | 224 | 303 | 318 | 622 | 94 | 294 | 25 | 9 | 285 | 71 | -20 | +0 | -2 | -7 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2199 | 1982 | 442 | 79 | 21 | 27 | 169 | 552 | 24 | 158 | 32 | 223 | 292 | 325 | 617 | 102 | 292 | 25 | 8 | 274 | 71 | -11 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +8 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 130 | 23 | 6 | 8 | 50 | 163 | 7 | 47 | 9 | 222 | 291 | 323 | 613 | 101 | 290 | 25 | 8 | 274 | 71 | -20 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 296 PAwOBA .327 → .262 (−65)K% 18.9% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.92% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.19% | ÷1.042 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.80% | ÷1.060 | ×0.930 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 19.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷0.991 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.88% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .327 → .262; ISO .112 → .089; BABIP .303 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 65 PAwOBA .346 → .277 (−69)K% 23.1% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.23% | ÷1.055 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 16.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 10.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.141 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.119 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.28% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .346 → .277; ISO .211 → .154; BABIP .310 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 187 PAwOBA .244 → .203 (−41)K% 24.1% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.06% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.70% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×1.013 | ×1.033 | 16.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.36% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×1.013 | ×1.033 | 3.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.68% | ÷1.143 | ×0.970 | ×1.013 | ×1.033 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.68% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.22% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .244 → .203; ISO .085 → .070; BABIP .227 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 116 PAwOBA .276 → .226 (−50)K% 19.8% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.83% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.48% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.52% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.33% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.97% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .276 → .226; ISO .078 → .058; BABIP .275 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 400 PAwOBA .341 → .297 (−44)K% 21.5% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.25% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.63% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 24.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.09% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.21% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 2.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.57% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.94% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .341 → .297; ISO .154 → .125; BABIP .354 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 44 PAwOBA .324 → .270 (−54)K% 22.7% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.023 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.59% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 26.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.34% | ÷1.309 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 6.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .324 → .270; ISO .077 → .050; BABIP .379 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greenville Drive · 466 PAwOBA .325 → .257 (−68)K% 21.2% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.24% | ÷1.059 | ×1.310 | — | — | 26.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.95% | ÷1.001 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 8.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.84% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 19.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 3.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.77% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 2.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.42% | ÷0.996 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.14% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .325 → .257; ISO .129 → .109; BABIP .306 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AModesto Nuts · 141 PAwOBA .452 → .392 (−60)K% 14.2% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.18% | ÷1.019 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.65% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | — | 29.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷1.014 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | — | 6.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.06% | ÷0.903 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | — | 3.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.06% | ÷0.861 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.85% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 81, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .452 → .392; ISO .195 → .182; BABIP .434 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .