Michael Gigliotti
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | A+/ROKTB | 100 | .228/.384/.481 | 4 | 6 | 76 | — | .184/.305/.390 |
| 2022 | 26 | AASF | 319 | .215/.369/.343 | 7 | 24 | 69 | — | .190/.304/.295 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAASF | 278 | .240/.382/.353 | 3 | 7 | 84 | — | .222/.331/.312 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 100 | 86 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 302 | 381 | 419 | 800 | 116 | 379 | 20 | 8 | 351 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Burlington Royals | — | 191 | 155 | 51 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 329 | 447 | 477 | 924 | 148 | 361 | 11 | 17 | 408 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 24 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 435 | 471 | 905 | 235 | 273 | 21 | 25 | 390 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 99 | 87 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 184 | 268 | 230 | 498 | 46 | 250 | 23 | 8 | 232 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 279 | 236 | 73 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 49 | 8 | 29 | 7 | 309 | 399 | 411 | 810 | 102 | 381 | 18 | 10 | 358 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 18 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 429 | 529 | 500 | 1.029 | 71 | 545 | 17 | 17 | 439 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 74 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 203 | 311 | 391 | 701 | 188 | 270 | 32 | 12 | 317 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 26 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 333 | 600 | 867 | 1.467 | 533 | 364 | 15 | 27 | 563 | 179 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 319 | 251 | 54 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 51 | 77 | 10 | 24 | 6 | 215 | 369 | 343 | 711 | 127 | 278 | 24 | 16 | 326 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 278 | 221 | 53 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 46 | 53 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 240 | 382 | 353 | 735 | 113 | 296 | 19 | 17 | 336 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 100 | 89 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 281 | 340 | 382 | 722 | 101 | 373 | 27 | 5 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 191 | 167 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 30 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 257 | 340 | 353 | 694 | 96 | 297 | 16 | 10 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 348 | 421 | 769 | 211 | 222 | 29 | 17 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 99 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 167 | 227 | 211 | 438 | 44 | 230 | 32 | 5 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 279 | 246 | 64 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 62 | 8 | 29 | 7 | 260 | 328 | 341 | 670 | 81 | 320 | 22 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 18 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 333 | 412 | 400 | 812 | 67 | 423 | 22 | 11 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 74 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 152 | 243 | 273 | 516 | 121 | 231 | 43 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 278 | 480 | 722 | 1.202 | 444 | 242 | 23 | 15 | 433 | 179 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 319 | 268 | 51 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 95 | 10 | 24 | 6 | 190 | 304 | 295 | 599 | 104 | 257 | 30 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 278 | 234 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 58 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 222 | 331 | 312 | 643 | 90 | 273 | 21 | 12 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 256 | 69 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 57 | 4 | 22 | 10 | 270 | 344 | 371 | 715 | 102 | 332 | 20 | 9 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 291 | 241 | 77 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 41 | 4 | 22 | 10 | 320 | 425 | 456 | 881 | 137 | 367 | 14 | 14 | 388 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 348 | 421 | 769 | 211 | 273 | 29 | 17 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A RAW | Lexington Legends | — | 24 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 435 | 471 | 905 | 235 | 273 | 21 | 25 | 390 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 396 | 352 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 98 | 10 | 36 | 10 | 236 | 301 | 304 | 605 | 68 | 320 | 25 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 396 | 337 | 95 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 75 | 10 | 36 | 10 | 282 | 371 | 368 | 739 | 86 | 356 | 19 | 10 | 330 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 100 | 84 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 37 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 167 | 293 | 345 | 638 | 179 | 244 | 37 | 11 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 100 | 79 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 228 | 384 | 481 | 865 | 253 | 292 | 28 | 16 | 381 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 319 | 268 | 51 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 95 | 10 | 24 | 6 | 190 | 304 | 295 | 599 | 104 | 266 | 30 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 319 | 251 | 54 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 51 | 77 | 10 | 24 | 6 | 215 | 369 | 343 | 711 | 127 | 278 | 24 | 16 | 326 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 278 | 234 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 58 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 222 | 331 | 312 | 643 | 90 | 281 | 21 | 12 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | Sacramento River Cats | — | 278 | 221 | 53 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 46 | 53 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 240 | 382 | 353 | 735 | 113 | 296 | 19 | 17 | 336 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 260 | 69 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 57 | 4 | 22 | 10 | 265 | 344 | 365 | 709 | 100 | 323 | 20 | 9 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 24 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 348 | 400 | 748 | 200 | 222 | 29 | 17 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 396 | 360 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 98 | 10 | 36 | 10 | 231 | 301 | 297 | 599 | 67 | 302 | 25 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 100 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 37 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 165 | 293 | 341 | 634 | 176 | 234 | 37 | 11 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 319 | 272 | 51 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 95 | 10 | 24 | 6 | 188 | 304 | 290 | 595 | 103 | 257 | 30 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 278 | 238 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 58 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 218 | 331 | 307 | 638 | 88 | 273 | 21 | 12 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1408 | 1213 | 273 | 50 | 10 | 16 | 130 | 352 | 33 | 96 | 29 | 225 | 317 | 322 | 639 | 97 | 300 | 25 | 9 | 282 | 77 | -38 | +8 | +0 | -8 | +31 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 560 | 126 | 23 | 5 | 7 | 60 | 162 | 15 | 44 | 13 | 225 | 317 | 321 | 638 | 96 | 300 | 25 | 9 | 282 | 77 | -18 | +4 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 278 PAwOBA .333 → .292 (−41)K% 19.1% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.06% | ÷1.087 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.55% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 11.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.80% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷0.992 | ×0.930 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 19.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 7.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.956 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .333 → .292; ISO .113 → .098; BABIP .296 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 319 PAwOBA .320 → .270 (−50)K% 24.1% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.14% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.67% | ÷1.018 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 10.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.13% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.41% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 21.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.87% | ÷1.011 | ×0.860 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 2.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 1.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.02% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.34% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .320 → .270; ISO .127 → .114; BABIP .278 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 74 PAwOBA .309 → .228 (−81)K% 32.4% → 42.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.43% | ÷1.027 | ×1.350 | — | — | 42.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.16% | ÷0.953 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 8.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.50% | ÷0.957 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 16.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.135 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 5.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.50% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 6.23% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 91, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 105, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .309 → .228; ISO .188 → .132; BABIP .270 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Rays · 26 PAwOBA .572 → .433 (−139)K% 15.4% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 26.92% | ÷0.999 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 15.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 11.54% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 7.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.006 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 18.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.065 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 5.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 7.07% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 101, 3B 113, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .572 → .433; ISO .533 → .483; BABIP .364 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ALexington Legends · 279 PAwOBA .353 → .286 (−66)K% 17.6% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.56% | ÷1.066 | ×1.340 | — | — | 22.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷1.047 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 6.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.87% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 2.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.81% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×0.990 | 24.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.16% | ÷1.020 | ×0.820 | ×0.964 | ×0.990 | 7.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.013 | ×0.940 | ×0.964 | ×0.990 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.095 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 0.40% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 103, 2B 104, 3B 103, K 113, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .353 → .286; ISO .102 → .082; BABIP .381 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 99 PAwOBA .227 → .180 (−47)K% 23.2% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.23% | ÷1.024 | ×1.420 | — | — | 32.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.08% | ÷1.102 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 4.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.02% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.31% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 19.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 2.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷0.921 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.884 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 100, 2B 99, 3B 84, K 105, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .227 → .180; ISO .046 → .037; BABIP .250 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Royals · 18 PAwOBA .429 → .330 (−99)K% 16.7% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 9.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 45.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 35.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .429 → .330; ISO .071 → .054; BABIP .545 → .423. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ALexington Legends · 24 PAwOBA .381 → .300 (−82)K% 20.8% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.660 | — | — | 16.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | — | — | 14.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.112 | ×0.820 | — | — | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.051 | ×0.820 | — | — | 6.50% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 109, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .381 → .300; ISO .235 → .202; BABIP .273 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).