Matt Rudick — OGILVIE

Matt RudickOF Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 28 L/L 5'7" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION238 act + 158 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .298 / .305

PA158

HR3

SB5

K%25

BB%10

BABIP248

ISO109

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	ROK	FCL Mets	—	89	80	16	1	2	1	8	16	1	6	0	200	281	300	581	100	238	18	9	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	ROK	FCL Mets	—	89	76	23	2	3	1	12	11	1	6	0	303	404	447	852	145	344	12	13	382	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	2 teams	—	384	332	63	15	3	3	30	83	17	17	5	190	290	280	570	90	239	22	8	255	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	2 teams	—	384	315	75	19	4	3	47	61	17	17	5	238	367	352	719	114	281	16	12	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	2 teams	—	285	248	57	10	0	10	31	57	6	12	1	230	330	391	721	161	260	20	11	319	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	2 teams	—	285	231	62	13	0	9	48	44	6	12	1	268	407	442	849	173	298	15	17	384	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	491	434	95	25	1	11	45	125	10	12	7	219	307	357	664	138	280	25	9	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	491	415	99	27	1	8	64	106	10	12	7	239	354	366	720	128	300	22	13	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	15	13	2	0	1	0	2	7	0	0	0	154	267	308	574	154	333	47	13	219	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	15	12	2	0	1	0	3	5	0	0	0	167	333	333	667	167	286	33	20	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AA	NYM	—	238	202	33	7	0	4	25	60	8	11	1	163	281	257	538	94	207	25	11	244	45	-15	+2	+0	-1	+7	-0.8
YTD	28	AA	NYM	—	238	190	36	8	0	4	37	47	8	11	1	189	345	295	639	105	227	20	16	303	90	-3	+2	+0	-1	+7	0.4
ROS	28	AA	NYM	2%	158	137	27	6	0	3	16	39	4	5	1	196	298	305	603	109	250	25	10	285	76	-4	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.0
ROS	28	MLB	NYM	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						250	33	0	268	63	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	28	AA	NYM	—	241	205	33	7	0	4	25	61	8	11	1	161	277	254	531	93	204	25	10	244	45	-15	+2	+0	-1	+7	-0.8
TOT	28	AA	NYM	—	396	339	60	13	0	7	41	99	12	16	2	177	288	277	565	100	224	25	10	260	57	-19	+2	+0	-2	+11	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	NYM	23%	474	414	83	18	1	10	47	117	10	12	3	200	297	321	618	121	253	25	10	286	77	-12	+1	-1	-3	+13	-0.2
2028	30	MLB	NYM	35%	494	432	88	19	1	11	49	123	10	11	2	204	299	329	628	125	255	25	10	286	77	-13	+1	-2	-3	+14	-0.2
2027	29	MLB	NYM	23%	107	93	18	4	0	2	11	27	2	3	1	194	292	301	594	108	253	25	10	271	65	-4	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.2
2028	30	MLB	NYM	35%	171	149	31	7	0	4	17	43	3	4	1	208	302	336	637	128	255	25	10	271	66	-7	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	281	245	49	11	0	6	28	71	5	7	2	200	295	318	613	118	253	25	10	271	66	-11	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	113	25	0	14	65	164	12	16	5	199	295	317	613	118	251	25	10	271	66	-25	+1	-2	-4	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	2390	2090	431	94	9	49	228	567	58	75	19	206	302	330	632	124	257	24	10	285	76	-65	+7	-3	-14	+68	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	117	26	2	13	62	154	16	20	5	206	302	327	629	121	257	24	10	285	76	-18	+2	-1	-4	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	ROK	FCL Mets	—	89	76	23	2	3	1	12	11	1	6	0	303	404	447	852	145	344	12	13	382	150	+5	+1	—	—	+3	0.9
2022	24	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	18	15	2	1	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	133	278	200	478	67	167	17	11	240	42	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	24	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	366	300	73	18	4	3	45	58	16	17	5	243	371	360	731	117	287	16	12	334	114	+6	+1	—	—	+10	1.8
2023	25	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	266	214	58	11	0	9	46	42	6	12	1	271	414	449	862	178	301	16	17	390	157	+17	+2	—	—	+8	2.7
2023	25	ROK	FCL Mets	—	19	17	4	2	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	235	316	353	669	118	267	11	11	304	91	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2024	26	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	491	415	99	27	1	8	64	106	10	12	7	239	354	366	720	128	300	22	13	330	111	+6	-0	—	—	+14	2.0
2025	27	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	15	12	2	0	1	0	3	5	0	0	0	167	333	333	667	167	286	33	20	308	94	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	282	6	7	204	297	329	-2	+0	-0.1	-0.0
	/162	664	14	16	204	297	329	-4.0	+0.0	-0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Rudick (OGILVIE)	28	44	42	52	55	177/288/277	100	224	7	16	25%	10%	57	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2021 · MLB	28	47→53	49→50	50	49	238/303/392	154	278	17	9	21%	8%	95	+1.4	217/278/325	108	290	11	8	27%	7%	67	-0.5	186/249/234	48	274	3	3	31%	8%	27	-0.8
✕Jeff Fiorentino 2011 · MLB	28	50→53	44→50	51→50	49	246/304/369	122	294	11	15	20%	8%	89	+1.0	227/292/357	130	274	12	10	21%	8%	82	+0.5	220/294/359	138	263	13	8	21%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Kevin Reese 2006 · AAA	28	50→51	46→45	52→50	48	244/302/386	142	278	12	13	17%	7%	93	+1.3	239/299/357	118	278	11	11	18%	6%	84	+0.6	236/299/335	100	275	10	9	18%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Zack Collins 2023 · MLB	28	36→43	49→50	46→40	50	190/284/340	150	262	16	6	32%	11%	75	-0.0	214/291/357	143	326	16	7	36%	10%	82	+0.5	207/287/340	133	326	15	4	38%	10%	73	-0.1
✕Russ Adams 2009 · MLB	28	46→53	45	47→45	48	227/281/348	121	260	13	9	19%	7%	75	-0.0	222/274/347	125	259	13	8	19%	6%	71	-0.3	221/273/347	126	256	13	4	19%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Mitchell Tolman 2022 · AAA	28	45→50	47→45	47→50	42	223/287/360	138	292	14	8	28%	6%	81	+0.4	238/310/381	143	299	14	9	24%	8%	95	+1.4	242/323/385	143	300	14	7	22%	9%	98	+1.1
✕Luis González 2023 · MLB	27	49→52	46→45	52→50	49	242/315/369	128	306	14	18	25%	9%	95	+1.4	239/311/356	117	315	10	17	25%	8%	89	+1.0	225/307/310	85	284	4	28	20%	9%	73	-0.0
✕Carlos Moncrief 2017 · AAA	28	45→49	45→55	51→50	46	224/286/348	124	283	13	11	25%	8%	76	+0.1	221/277/331	110	302	10	10	28%	7%	68	-0.5	222/274/316	94	328	5	9	32%	7%	59	-0.4
✕Chris Herrmann 2017 · MLB	29	47→48	47→50	57→50	46	230/294/372	142	295	13	11	26%	8%	86	+0.8	221/302/378	157	287	19	8	28%	10%	92	+1.2	209/296/361	152	272	19	4	29%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Carlos Alvarez 2016 · AAA	28	47	42→45	46→45	53	227/309/340	113	273	9	8	19%	9%	85	+0.7	234/301/318	84	292	5	9	20%	7%	75	-0.0	236/302/296	60	298	2	7	20%	7%	66	-0.2
✕Hoy Park 2023 · MLB	27	41→49	47→45	53→55	48	209/284/337	128	275	15	16	29%	9%	73	-0.1	224/308/335	111	306	11	17	28%	10%	82	+0.5	227/321/326	100	311	9	19	27%	11%	83	+0.4
✕Nate Spears 2013 · AAA	28	42→52	44→45	52→50	48	209/281/326	118	261	11	10	24%	8%	69	-0.4	218/279/323	105	291	9	11	26%	7%	67	-0.5	218/281/312	94	292	7	12	26%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→48	49→50	48→45	49	233/301/374	141	274	17	6	22%	8%	90	+1.0	239/299/374	135	304	15	6	25%	8%	89	+1.0	230/288/355	125	295	14	6	26%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Matthew den Dekker 2016 · MLB	28	49→57	45→50	51→55	46	238/296/368	130	296	11	14	23%	7%	85	+0.7	204/257/332	128	278	13	17	30%	6%	60	-1.0	191/240/320	130	267	13	18	33%	5%	47	-1.2
✕Christian Lopes 2021 · AAA	28	46→50	44→45	47→50	49	225/299/344	120	279	11	13	23%	8%	82	+0.5	212/291/340	128	302	13	11	32%	8%	78	+0.2	192/281/315	123	279	13	9	33%	9%	65	-0.2
✕Juan Carlos Gamboa 2019 · AAA	28	48	43→45	47→50	43	236/289/345	109	300	11	10	25%	6%	76	+0.1	236/300/346	110	323	12	9	28%	8%	82	+0.5	237/305/328	92	327	11	5	29%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Casey Benjamin 2009 · AAA	28	45→52	44→45	50→45	49	224/286/340	116	269	12	6	21%	8%	74	-0.1	211/287/315	104	273	10	7	25%	9%	69	-0.4	188/279/270	82	246	7	4	24%	10%	53	-0.9
✕Conner Crumbliss 2014 · AAA	27	43→50	46→45	51→50	57	215/316/346	130	259	14	15	22%	12%	90	+1.0	221/295/349	128	260	13	12	20%	9%	82	+0.5	217/287/338	121	249	12	11	18%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Jack Larsen 2023 · AA	28	49→50	49→55	48→45	48	244/315/394	150	319	16	9	28%	9%	101	+1.8	240/320/350	110	328	10	9	27%	10%	92	+1.2	255/372/281	26	377	0	4	27%	14%	95	+0.3
✕Cody Asche 2018 · MLB	28	43→53	47→50	46→45	45	218/282/355	137	279	15	6	27%	8%	77	+0.1	198/267/326	128	282	13	6	33%	8%	63	-0.8	172/231/305	133	240	13	0	33%	6%	39	-1.5