Matt Rudick
OF Binghamton Rumble Ponies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AANYM | 491 | .239/.354/.366 | 8 | 12 | 72 | — | .209/.297/.322 |
| 2025 | 27 | A+NYM | 15 | .167/.333/.333 | 0 | 0 | 24 | — | .154/.267/.308 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/AANYM | 284 | .194/.335/.306 | 5 | 12 | 46 | — | .164/.274/.250 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 29 | MLBNYM | 3 | .202/.295/.301 | 0 | 0 | 76 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 30 | MLBNYM | 39 | .201/.292/.299 | 1 | 1 | 75 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 37
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 89 | 76 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 303 | 404 | 447 | 852 | 145 | 344 | 12 | 13 | 382 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 278 | 200 | 478 | 67 | 167 | 17 | 11 | 240 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 366 | 300 | 73 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 45 | 58 | 16 | 17 | 5 | 243 | 371 | 360 | 731 | 117 | 287 | 16 | 12 | 334 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 266 | 214 | 58 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 42 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 271 | 414 | 449 | 862 | 178 | 301 | 16 | 17 | 390 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 19 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 316 | 353 | 669 | 118 | 267 | 11 | 11 | 304 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 491 | 415 | 99 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 64 | 106 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 239 | 354 | 366 | 720 | 128 | 300 | 22 | 13 | 330 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 333 | 667 | 167 | 286 | 33 | 20 | 308 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 69 | 55 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 255 | 406 | 327 | 733 | 73 | 295 | 14 | 14 | 350 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 215 | 177 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 47 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 175 | 311 | 299 | 611 | 124 | 211 | 22 | 13 | 285 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 89 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 200 | 281 | 300 | 581 | 100 | 242 | 18 | 9 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 18 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 222 | 188 | 410 | 62 | 161 | 22 | 6 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 366 | 319 | 60 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 76 | 16 | 17 | 5 | 188 | 283 | 279 | 562 | 91 | 226 | 21 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 266 | 229 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 51 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 236 | 342 | 380 | 722 | 144 | 267 | 19 | 12 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 19 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 158 | 167 | 325 | 56 | 194 | 16 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 491 | 435 | 91 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 124 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 209 | 297 | 322 | 618 | 113 | 268 | 25 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 308 | 574 | 154 | 227 | 40 | 13 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 69 | 58 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 224 | 348 | 293 | 641 | 69 | 255 | 17 | 10 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 215 | 186 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 57 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 145 | 250 | 237 | 487 | 91 | 179 | 27 | 9 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 89 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 200 | 281 | 300 | 581 | 100 | 238 | 18 | 9 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK RAW | FCL Mets | — | 89 | 76 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 303 | 404 | 447 | 852 | 145 | 344 | 12 | 13 | 382 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 384 | 335 | 61 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 80 | 17 | 17 | 5 | 182 | 277 | 269 | 546 | 87 | 226 | 21 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 384 | 315 | 75 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 47 | 61 | 17 | 17 | 5 | 238 | 367 | 352 | 719 | 114 | 281 | 16 | 12 | 330 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 285 | 247 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 54 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 227 | 330 | 364 | 694 | 138 | 259 | 19 | 11 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 285 | 231 | 62 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 48 | 44 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 268 | 407 | 442 | 849 | 173 | 298 | 15 | 17 | 384 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 491 | 435 | 91 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 124 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 209 | 297 | 322 | 618 | 113 | 272 | 25 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 491 | 415 | 99 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 64 | 106 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 239 | 354 | 366 | 720 | 128 | 300 | 22 | 13 | 330 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 308 | 574 | 154 | 286 | 40 | 13 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ RAW | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 333 | 667 | 167 | 286 | 33 | 20 | 308 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 245 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 69 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 159 | 267 | 245 | 512 | 86 | 201 | 24 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 284 | 232 | 45 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 57 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 194 | 335 | 306 | 641 | 112 | 233 | 20 | 14 | 300 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 89 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 200 | 281 | 300 | 581 | 100 | 242 | 18 | 9 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 384 | 337 | 61 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 80 | 17 | 17 | 5 | 181 | 277 | 267 | 544 | 86 | 223 | 21 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 285 | 245 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 54 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 229 | 330 | 367 | 697 | 139 | 262 | 19 | 11 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 491 | 434 | 91 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 124 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 210 | 297 | 323 | 619 | 113 | 268 | 25 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 308 | 574 | 154 | 227 | 40 | 13 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 246 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 69 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 159 | 267 | 244 | 511 | 85 | 197 | 24 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 491 | 434 | 91 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 124 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 210 | 297 | 323 | 619 | 113 | 268 | 25 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 308 | 574 | 154 | 227 | 40 | 13 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 246 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 69 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 159 | 267 | 244 | 511 | 85 | 197 | 24 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYM | 2% | 294 | 258 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 72 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 208 | 300 | 311 | 611 | 103 | 268 | 24 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -8 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYM | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 295 | 301 | 596 | 100 | 259 | 33 | 0 | 275 | 76 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | NYM | 23% | 171 | 149 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 298 | 308 | 606 | 101 | 268 | 25 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -1 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | NYM | 23% | 39 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 201 | 292 | 299 | 591 | 98 | 259 | 26 | 10 | 273 | 75 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 39 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 333 | 382 | 716 | 147 | 304 | 26 | 10 | 273 | 67 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 567 | 133 | 33 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 167 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 235 | 334 | 383 | 717 | 148 | 303 | 26 | 10 | 273 | 67 | -20 | +3 | -8 | -4 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1874 | 1640 | 322 | 70 | 7 | 28 | 169 | 429 | 52 | 66 | 16 | 196 | 292 | 299 | 591 | 102 | 246 | 23 | 9 | 268 | 67 | -9 | +1 | -2 | -2 | +7 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 569 | 111 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 59 | 149 | 18 | 23 | 6 | 195 | 291 | 297 | 588 | 102 | 244 | 23 | 9 | 268 | 67 | -19 | +1 | -4 | -4 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 215 PAwOBA .281 → .221 (−60)K% 21.9% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.86% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 9.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.79% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 2.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 11.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 6.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 2.32% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .281 → .221; ISO .124 → .098; BABIP .211 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 69 PAwOBA .342 → .281 (−61)K% 14.5% → 17.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.49% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.80% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 5.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 23.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 1.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.54% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .342 → .281; ISO .073 → .054; BABIP .295 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 15 PAwOBA .301 → .204 (−98)K% 33.3% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.011 | ×1.310 | — | — | 43.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.958 | 11.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.021 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 11.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.051 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 11.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.073 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .301 → .204; ISO .167 → .126; BABIP .286 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 491 PAwOBA .323 → .274 (−49)K% 21.6% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.59% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.03% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.39% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 18.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.74% | ÷0.954 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 7.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷1.062 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.39% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 112, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .323 → .274; ISO .128 → .115; BABIP .300 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 266 PAwOBA .379 → .318 (−62)K% 15.8% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.92% | ÷1.015 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 11.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.26% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.09% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 20.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.40% | ÷1.032 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.23% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.40% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .379 → .318; ISO .178 → .153; BABIP .301 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Mets · 19 PAwOBA .296 → .202 (−94)K% 10.5% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.949 | ×1.440 | — | — | 15.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.004 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.046 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 9.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.953 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 9.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 91, 3B 96, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .296 → .202; ISO .118 → .083; BABIP .267 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 366 PAwOBA .331 → .250 (−81)K% 15.8% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.85% | ÷0.995 | ×1.310 | — | — | 20.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.30% | ÷1.020 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 7.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.37% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 3.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.83% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 16.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.44% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.65% | ÷1.060 | ×0.850 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 1.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.24% | ÷0.925 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.16% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 112, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .331 → .250; ISO .117 → .096; BABIP .287 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 18 PAwOBA .235 → .206 (−29)K% 16.7% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 5.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 8.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 7.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .235 → .206; ISO .067 → .060; BABIP .167 → .161. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).