Sebastián Elizalde

PosOF

B/TL/R

Born1991-11-20

Age (2027)35

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTLPROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	32	INTLTomateros de …	104	.174/.262/.217	1	4	40	—
2025	33	INTLYaquis de Obr…	267	.283/.361/.421	6	9	120	—
2026	34	INTLYaquis de Obr…	48	.436/.532/.744	2	0	247	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	19	AAA	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	41	36	11	3	0	1	2	6	1	0	0	306	359	472	831	167	323	15	5	351	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AAA	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	152	134	37	9	4	2	15	37	1	7	3	276	353	448	801	172	365	24	10	351	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	18	15	3	0	0	0	3	6	0	0	1	200	333	200	533		333	33	17	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AAA	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	123	116	38	5	0	3	5	22	1	5	3	328	361	448	809	121	385	18	4	358	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+	Bakersfield Blaze	—	267	243	66	17	1	9	19	44	3	10	7	272	332	461	793	189	297	16	7	348	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A	Dayton Dragons	—	229	183	57	12	1	7	41	48	2	9	10	311	442	503	945	191	385	21	18	415	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	267	238	66	15	1	5	22	46	4	3	4	277	348	412	760	134	326	17	8	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	525	474	120	28	5	10	39	107	4	9	1	253	315	397	712	143	301	20	7	314	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	265	242	67	8	2	4	15	34	1	2	1	277	322	376	698	99	304	13	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	438	408	121	16	3	5	18	61	2	5	1	297	329	387	717	91	332	14	4	314	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	212	182	42	9	1	1	25	31	1	3	2	231	327	308	635	77	270	15	12	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	561	506	140	15	6	8	35	70	7	4	2	277	331	377	708	101	305	12	6	313	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	INTL	Mexico	—	305	267	100	17	2	5	28	29	5	17	6	375	443	509	953	135	403	10	9	418	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	77	71	18	6	0	2	4	9	2	2	2	254	312	423	734	169	267	12	5	327	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	143	124	36	4	0	2	17	18	1	3	5	290	380	371	751	81	324	13	12	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	113	99	31	7	0	1	12	12	1	3	2	313	393	414	807	101	345	11	11	363	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	INTL	Mexico	—	272	234	71	6	4	11	33	30	2	21	7	303	394	504	898	201	308	11	12	393	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	INTL	Mexico	—	216	194	54	14	0	11	17	20	3	13	6	278	346	521	866	242	261	9	8	376	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	79	70	13	2	0	1	9	10	0	6	1	186	278	257	536	71	203	13	11	253	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	41	35	10	3	0	0	6	5	0	1	0	286	390	371	762	86	333	12	15	351	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	276	232	78	8	1	6	36	15	3	14	9	336	432	457	889	121	333	5	13	394	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	282	258	68	10	2	1	18	18	3	13	6	264	319	329	648	66	277	6	6	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	211	190	54	6	0	5	15	18	1	11	5	284	340	395	735	111	287	9	7	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	104	92	16	1	0	1	11	13	0	4	1	174	262	217	480	43	192	12	11	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	267	233	66	10	2	6	26	31	3	9	4	283	361	421	782	137	303	12	10	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	48	39	17	6	0	2	8	4	0	0	2	436	532	744	1.276	308	441	8	17	533	247	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	19	AAA MLE	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	41	37	11	3	0	1	1	7	1	0	0	297	333	459	793	162	302	17	2	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AAA MLE	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	152	138	32	7	3	1	11	45	1	7	3	232	293	348	641	116	326	30	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AAA MLE	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	123	117	36	4	0	2	4	25	1	5	3	308	336	393	729	85	368	20	3	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	—	267	248	52	13	1	6	14	61	3	10	7	210	260	343	603	133	243	23	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	229	196	52	11	1	6	28	60	2	9	10	265	363	423	786	158	339	26	12	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	525	484	98	24	3	8	29	154	4	9	1	202	253	314	567	112	265	29	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	438	415	108	13	3	4	11	71	2	5	1	260	283	335	618	75	293	16	3	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	561	522	128	12	5	7	21	85	7	4	2	245	284	328	611	82	272	15	4	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	77	72	16	5	0	2	3	11	2	2	2	222	273	375	648	153	230	14	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	113	105	27	5	0	1	6	16	1	3	2	257	304	333	637	76	285	14	5	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	79	73	12	2	0	1	6	12	0	6	1	164	228	233	461	68	172	15	8	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	41	37	8	2	0	0	4	6	0	1	0	216	293	270	563	54	277	15	10	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	AAA MLE	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	41	37	11	3	0	1	1	7	1	0	0	297	333	459	793	162	323	17	2	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	AAA RAW	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	41	36	11	3	0	1	2	6	1	0	0	306	359	472	831	167	323	15	5	351	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	170	155	36	8	4	1	12	50	1	7	4	232	292	355	647	123	333	29	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	170	149	40	9	4	2	18	43	1	7	4	268	351	423	774	154	362	25	11	342	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AAA MLE	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	123	117	36	4	0	2	4	25	1	5	3	308	336	393	729	85	378	20	3	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AAA RAW	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	123	116	38	5	0	3	5	22	1	5	3	328	361	448	809	121	385	18	4	358	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	763	681	157	36	3	17	65	187	9	22	21	231	306	367	673	137	291	25	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	763	664	189	44	3	21	82	138	9	22	21	285	371	455	826	170	330	18	11	365	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	790	726	147	35	5	12	44	231	5	11	2	202	253	314	567	112	273	29	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	790	716	187	36	7	14	54	141	5	11	2	261	317	390	707	128	302	18	7	311	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	650	616	162	20	4	7	17	106	3	8	3	263	286	343	629	80	303	16	3	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	650	590	163	25	4	6	43	92	3	8	3	276	329	363	691	86	313	14	7	306	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	866	806	197	19	8	10	32	132	12	21	8	244	284	325	609	81	278	15	4	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	866	773	240	32	8	13	63	99	12	21	8	310	371	423	794	113	339	11	7	350	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	220	208	44	14	0	5	8	32	3	5	7	212	251	351	602	139	227	15	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	220	195	54	10	0	4	21	27	3	5	7	277	356	390	746	113	303	12	10	337	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	385	356	90	17	0	2	22	53	3	24	9	253	302	317	619	65	289	14	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	385	333	102	13	4	12	45	42	3	24	9	306	394	477	871	171	319	11	12	384	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	INTL MLE	Mexico	—	216	194	54	14	0	11	17	20	3	13	6	278	346	521	866	242	261	9	8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	INTL RAW	Mexico	—	216	194	54	14	0	11	17	20	3	13	6	278	346	521	866	242	261	9	8	376	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	396	355	65	14	0	2	33	61	3	21	10	183	258	239	498	56	212	15	8	219	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	INTL RAW	3 teams	—	396	337	101	13	1	7	51	30	3	21	10	300	396	407	803	107	308	8	13	361	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	INTL MLE	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	282	258	68	10	2	1	18	18	3	13	6	264	319	329	648	66	277	6	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	INTL RAW	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	282	258	68	10	2	1	18	18	3	13	6	264	319	329	648	66	277	6	6	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	INTL MLE	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	211	190	54	6	0	5	15	18	1	11	5	284	340	395	735	111	287	9	7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	INTL RAW	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	211	190	54	6	0	5	15	18	1	11	5	284	340	395	735	111	287	9	7	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	INTL MLE	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	104	92	16	1	0	1	11	13	0	4	1	174	262	217	480	43	192	12	11	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	INTL RAW	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	104	92	16	1	0	1	11	13	0	4	1	174	262	217	480	43	192	12	11	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	INTL MLE	Yaquis de Obregon	—	267	233	66	10	2	6	26	31	3	9	4	283	361	421	782	137	303	12	10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	INTL RAW	Yaquis de Obregon	—	267	233	66	10	2	6	26	31	3	9	4	283	361	421	782	137	303	12	10	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	INTL MLE	Yaquis de Obregon	—	48	39	17	6	0	2	8	4	0	0	2	436	532	744	1.276	308	441	8	17	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	INTL RAW	Yaquis de Obregon	—	48	39	17	6	0	2	8	4	0	0	2	436	532	744	1.276	308	441	8	17	533	247	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	AAA MLE	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	41	39	11	3	0	1	1	7	1	0	0	282	333	436	769	154	302	17	2	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	170	155	36	8	4	1	12	50	1	7	4	232	292	355	647	123	326	29	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AAA MLE	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	123	117	36	4	0	2	4	25	1	5	3	308	336	393	729	85	368	20	3	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	763	683	157	36	3	17	65	187	9	22	21	230	306	366	672	136	287	25	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	790	735	147	35	5	12	44	231	5	11	2	200	253	310	563	110	265	29	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	650	625	162	20	4	7	17	106	3	8	3	259	286	338	624	78	293	16	3	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	866	815	197	19	8	10	32	132	12	21	8	242	284	321	605	80	272	15	4	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	220	207	44	14	0	5	8	32	3	5	7	213	251	353	604	140	230	15	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	385	357	90	17	0	2	22	53	3	24	9	252	302	317	618	64	285	14	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	396	357	65	14	0	2	33	61	3	21	10	182	258	238	496	56	208	15	8	219	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	5532	5063	1220	217	28	85	333	988	51	174	91	241	294	345	640	104	281	18	6	214	31	-456	-2	+0	-33	+120	-37.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	143	25	3	10	39	116	6	20	11	240	294	343	637	103	279	18	6	214	31	-54	-0	+0	-4	+14	-4.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 79 PAwOBA .247 → .192 (−55)K% 12.7% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.66%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	15.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.39%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.59%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.032	×0.930	×0.966	×0.972	14.10%
Doubles /BIP	3.33%	÷0.897	×0.830	×0.966	×0.972	2.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.986	×0.920	×0.966	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.67%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.09%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 79, 3B 97, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .247 → .192; ISO .071 → .053; BABIP .203 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 41 PAwOBA .342 → .272 (−70)K% 12.2% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.20%	÷1.017	×1.220	—	—	14.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.63%	÷1.018	×0.690	—	×0.948	9.40%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.948	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.33%	÷1.045	×0.940	—	×0.948	19.90%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.053	×0.870	—	×0.948	7.83%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.060	×0.920	—	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.995	×0.780	—	×0.948	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 112, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .342 → .272; ISO .086 → .070; BABIP .333 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASultanes de Monterrey · 113 PAwOBA .351 → .282 (−69)K% 10.6% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.62%	÷0.922	×1.200	—	—	13.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.85%	÷1.058	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.73%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.83%
Singles /BIP	26.44%	÷1.002	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	23.13%
Doubles /BIP	8.05%	÷1.149	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	5.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.091	×0.920	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.15%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.80%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 100, 2B 130, 3B 118, K 84, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .351 → .282; ISO .101 → .072; BABIP .345 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALouisville Bats · 77 PAwOBA .318 → .265 (−53)K% 11.7% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.69%	÷0.962	×1.200	—	—	14.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.19%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.72%
HBP% /PA	2.60%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.45%
Singles /BIP	16.13%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.979	×1.003	14.57%
Doubles /BIP	9.68%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.979	×1.003	7.75%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.001	×0.970	×0.979	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷0.988	×0.840	—	×1.003	2.75%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 100, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .318 → .265; ISO .169 → .138; BABIP .267 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALouisville Bats · 561 PAwOBA .304 → .268 (−36)K% 12.5% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.48%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	15.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.35%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×1.018	3.70%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.19%
Singles /BIP	25.46%	÷1.038	×0.930	×0.996	×1.018	23.11%
Doubles /BIP	3.44%	÷1.051	×0.830	×0.996	×1.018	2.75%
Triples /BIP	1.38%	÷1.113	×0.970	×0.996	×1.018	1.22%
Home runs /BIP	1.83%	÷1.042	×0.840	—	×1.018	1.51%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 108, 2B 110, 3B 123, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .304 → .268; ISO .101 → .086; BABIP .305 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 438 PAwOBA .311 → .270 (−41)K% 13.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.93%	÷1.042	×1.220	—	—	16.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.11%	÷1.075	×0.680	—	×0.998	2.59%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.38%
Singles /BIP	27.95%	÷0.993	×0.920	×0.968	×0.998	25.03%
Doubles /BIP	4.61%	÷1.081	×0.910	×0.968	×0.998	3.75%
Triples /BIP	0.86%	÷0.981	×0.880	×0.968	×0.998	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	1.44%	÷0.924	×0.800	—	×0.998	1.24%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 96, K 108, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .311 → .270; ISO .091 → .078; BABIP .332 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Daytona Tortugas · 525 PAwOBA .309 → .248 (−60)K% 20.4% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.38%	÷0.986	×1.420	—	—	29.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.05%	÷0.934	×0.750	—	×0.988	5.59%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	0.70%
Singles /BIP	20.98%	÷0.969	×0.920	×0.950	×0.988	18.69%
Doubles /BIP	7.63%	÷0.988	×0.960	×0.950	×0.988	6.96%
Triples /BIP	1.36%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×0.988	0.90%
Home runs /BIP	2.72%	÷1.047	×0.880	—	×0.988	2.26%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 94, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .309 → .248; ISO .143 → .111; BABIP .301 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 267 PAwOBA .341 → .255 (−86)K% 16.5% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.48%	÷0.961	×1.340	—	—	22.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.12%	÷0.944	×0.710	—	×0.998	5.34%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	0.89%
Singles /BIP	19.60%	÷1.031	×0.910	×0.968	×0.998	16.71%
Doubles /BIP	8.54%	÷1.005	×0.820	×0.968	×0.998	6.74%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷0.900	×0.760	×0.968	×0.998	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	4.52%	÷1.421	×0.920	—	×0.998	2.92%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 92, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .341 → .255; ISO .189 → .127; BABIP .297 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .