Darrell Ceciliani
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | AAALas Vegas 51s | 255 | .345/.401/.581 | 9 | 16 | 108 | — | .270/.313/.430 | |
| 2015 | 25 | MLBNYM | 75 | .206/.267/.279 | 1 | 5 | 60 | -0.1 | ||
| 2016 | 26 | AAATOR | 334 | .266/.326/.441 | 10 | 11 | 76 | — | .236/.278/.374 | |
| 2016 | 26 | MLBTOR | 29 | .111/.172/.185 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.8 | ||
| 2017 | 27 | AAA/A+TOR | 101 | .200/.248/.221 | 0 | 1 | 5 | — | .168/.208/.189 | |
| 2018 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 19 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | — | 179 | 158 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 234 | 307 | 310 | 617 | 76 | 280 | 17 | 7 | 284 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 488 | 421 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 96 | 8 | 25 | 8 | 259 | 351 | 361 | 712 | 102 | 327 | 20 | 11 | 322 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 99 | 85 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 329 | 398 | 459 | 857 | 129 | 375 | 13 | 10 | 376 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 76 | 66 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 258 | 347 | 348 | 695 | 91 | 302 | 17 | 12 | 315 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Mets | — | 462 | 418 | 112 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 105 | 6 | 31 | 7 | 268 | 324 | 380 | 704 | 112 | 341 | 23 | 6 | 311 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Mets | — | 430 | 395 | 114 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 89 | 6 | 16 | 7 | 289 | 336 | 405 | 741 | 116 | 351 | 21 | 5 | 327 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | — | 75 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 206 | 267 | 279 | 546 | 74 | 310 | 33 | 5 | 252 | 60 | -4 | +1 | +4 | -4 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 255 | 229 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 48 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 345 | 401 | 581 | 982 | 236 | 400 | 19 | 8 | 422 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 29 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 172 | 185 | 358 | 74 | 231 | 48 | 3 | 169 | 1 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.8 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 334 | 304 | 81 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 52 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 266 | 326 | 441 | 767 | 174 | 290 | 16 | 8 | 337 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 81 | 77 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 156 | 198 | 169 | 366 | 13 | 214 | 26 | 4 | 174 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 20 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 389 | 450 | 444 | 894 | 56 | 583 | 30 | 5 | 407 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 104 | 95 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 179 | 240 | 253 | 493 | 74 | 291 | 38 | 5 | 229 | 41 | -7 | +1 | +3 | -7 | +2 | -0.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 179 | 166 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 193 | 251 | 259 | 510 | 66 | 242 | 25 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 488 | 440 | 103 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 125 | 8 | 25 | 8 | 234 | 299 | 320 | 620 | 86 | 310 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 99 | 90 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 289 | 347 | 411 | 758 | 122 | 346 | 20 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 462 | 429 | 115 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 124 | 6 | 31 | 7 | 268 | 308 | 371 | 679 | 103 | 351 | 27 | 4 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 430 | 402 | 106 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 108 | 6 | 16 | 7 | 264 | 300 | 356 | 656 | 92 | 332 | 25 | 3 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | New York Mets | — | 75 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 203 | 267 | 275 | 542 | 72 | 310 | 33 | 5 | 257 | 60 | -4 | +1 | +4 | -4 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 255 | 237 | 64 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 63 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 270 | 313 | 430 | 744 | 160 | 338 | 25 | 5 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 29 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 172 | 185 | 358 | 74 | 231 | 48 | 3 | 169 | 1 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.8 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 334 | 313 | 74 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 66 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 236 | 278 | 374 | 652 | 137 | 269 | 20 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 81 | 78 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 141 | 173 | 154 | 327 | 13 | 205 | 32 | 2 | 144 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 20 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 350 | 333 | 683 | 56 | 521 | 40 | 5 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 179 | 166 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 193 | 251 | 259 | 510 | 66 | 250 | 25 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK RAW | Kingsport Mets | — | 179 | 158 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 234 | 307 | 310 | 617 | 76 | 280 | 17 | 7 | 284 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 488 | 440 | 103 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 125 | 8 | 25 | 8 | 234 | 299 | 320 | 620 | 86 | 318 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A RAW | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 488 | 421 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 96 | 8 | 25 | 8 | 259 | 351 | 361 | 712 | 102 | 327 | 20 | 11 | 322 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 175 | 159 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 277 | 335 | 371 | 706 | 94 | 344 | 20 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 175 | 151 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 298 | 376 | 411 | 786 | 113 | 344 | 15 | 11 | 350 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 462 | 429 | 115 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 124 | 6 | 31 | 7 | 268 | 308 | 371 | 679 | 103 | 362 | 27 | 4 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA RAW | Binghamton Mets | — | 462 | 418 | 112 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 105 | 6 | 31 | 7 | 268 | 324 | 380 | 704 | 112 | 341 | 23 | 6 | 311 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 430 | 402 | 106 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 108 | 6 | 16 | 7 | 264 | 300 | 356 | 656 | 92 | 342 | 25 | 3 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA RAW | Binghamton Mets | — | 430 | 395 | 114 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 89 | 6 | 16 | 7 | 289 | 336 | 405 | 741 | 116 | 351 | 21 | 5 | 327 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 330 | 306 | 79 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 88 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 258 | 306 | 399 | 705 | 141 | 336 | 27 | 5 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 330 | 297 | 93 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 73 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 313 | 370 | 512 | 882 | 199 | 382 | 22 | 8 | 383 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 340 | 77 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 80 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 226 | 269 | 359 | 628 | 132 | 273 | 22 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 363 | 331 | 84 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 66 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 254 | 314 | 420 | 734 | 166 | 287 | 18 | 7 | 323 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 101 | 96 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 208 | 188 | 395 | 21 | 262 | 35 | 3 | 175 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 101 | 95 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 248 | 221 | 469 | 21 | 279 | 27 | 4 | 220 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 179 | 164 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 195 | 251 | 262 | 514 | 67 | 242 | 25 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 488 | 444 | 103 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 125 | 8 | 25 | 8 | 232 | 299 | 318 | 617 | 86 | 310 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 175 | 159 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 277 | 335 | 371 | 706 | 94 | 346 | 20 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 462 | 434 | 115 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 124 | 6 | 31 | 7 | 265 | 308 | 366 | 675 | 101 | 351 | 27 | 4 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 430 | 406 | 106 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 108 | 6 | 16 | 7 | 261 | 300 | 352 | 652 | 91 | 332 | 25 | 3 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 330 | 306 | 79 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 88 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 258 | 306 | 399 | 705 | 141 | 332 | 27 | 5 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 340 | 77 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 80 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 226 | 269 | 359 | 628 | 132 | 266 | 22 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 101 | 95 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 168 | 208 | 189 | 397 | 21 | 268 | 35 | 3 | 175 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 104 | 95 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 179 | 240 | 253 | 493 | 74 | 291 | 38 | 5 | 229 | 75 | -7 | +1 | +3 | -7 | +2 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 106 | 25 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 244 | 19 | 31 | 6 | 178 | 240 | 251 | 491 | 72 | 291 | 38 | 5 | 229 | 75 | -46 | +4 | +19 | -46 | +14 | -5.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2528 | 2338 | 572 | 98 | 22 | 31 | 127 | 639 | 33 | 126 | 34 | 245 | 293 | 345 | 638 | 101 | 321 | 25 | 5 | 278 | 75 | -7 | +1 | +3 | -7 | +2 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 147 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 164 | 8 | 32 | 9 | 245 | 293 | 346 | 639 | 101 | 320 | 25 | 5 | 278 | 75 | -46 | +4 | +19 | -46 | +14 | -5.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAABuffalo Bisons · 81 PAwOBA .169 → .144 (−25)K% 25.9% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷0.950 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.70% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 2.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.64% | ÷1.021 | ×0.930 | ×1.049 | ×1.003 | 18.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×1.049 | ×1.003 | 1.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | ×1.049 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 104, 2B 88, 3B 92, K 90, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .169 → .144; ISO .013 → .011; BABIP .214 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 20 PAwOBA .397 → .299 (−98)K% 30.0% → 42.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.007 | ×1.420 | — | — | 42.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.118 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.958 | 3.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.958 | 4.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 50.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 43.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.940 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.958 | 8.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.265 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 153, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 101, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .397 → .299; ISO .056 → .045; BABIP .583 → .521. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAABuffalo Bisons · 334 PAwOBA .330 → .281 (−49)K% 15.6% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.57% | ÷0.937 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.49% | ÷1.034 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.30% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.24% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×1.018 | 19.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.75% | ÷0.917 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.018 | 6.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×1.018 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.97% | ÷1.164 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 2.92% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 87, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .330 → .281; ISO .174 → .140; BABIP .290 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAALas Vegas 51s · 255 PAwOBA .413 → .328 (−85)K% 18.8% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.82% | ÷0.977 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.45% | ÷1.010 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 5.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.39% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.97% | ÷0.983 | ×0.900 | ×0.955 | ×1.033 | 23.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.50% | ÷1.042 | ×0.810 | ×0.955 | ×1.033 | 8.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.21% | ÷1.061 | ×0.810 | ×0.955 | ×1.033 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.97% | ÷1.099 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 3.65% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 112, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .413 → .328; ISO .236 → .172; BABIP .400 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AABinghamton Mets · 430 PAwOBA .321 → .285 (−36)K% 20.7% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.70% | ÷1.011 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.88% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.10% | ÷0.990 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 27.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.050 | ×0.860 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 4.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.31% | ÷1.036 | ×0.950 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.29% | ÷1.009 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.79% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 107, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .321 → .285; ISO .116 → .094; BABIP .351 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AABinghamton Mets · 462 PAwOBA .304 → .292 (−12)K% 22.7% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.034 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.84% | ÷1.019 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.52% | ÷0.949 | ×0.970 | ×1.007 | ×1.027 | 28.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.43% | ÷0.991 | ×0.860 | ×1.007 | ×1.027 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.007 | ×1.027 | 2.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.012 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .304 → .292; ISO .112 → .102; BABIP .341 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+St. Lucie Mets · 99 PAwOBA .370 → .321 (−49)K% 13.1% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.13% | ÷0.933 | ×1.420 | — | — | 19.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.10% | ÷1.034 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 7.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 25.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.036 | ×0.960 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 7.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.016 | ×0.810 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.239 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 103, K 87, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .370 → .321; ISO .129 → .110; BABIP .375 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 ASavannah Sand Gnats · 488 PAwOBA .314 → .270 (−43)K% 19.7% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.67% | ÷1.026 | ×1.340 | — | — | 25.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.66% | ÷1.045 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 6.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 23.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.08% | ÷1.096 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 5.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.040 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.819 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 1.25% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 98, 2B 119, 3B 108, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .314 → .270; ISO .102 → .090; BABIP .327 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .