Diego Hernandez
OF Northwest Arkansas Naturals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | AA/A+/ROK/INTL3 orgs | 411 | .251/.305/.337 | 3 | 26 | 50 | — | .225/.278/.293 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 435 | .245/.286/.355 | 8 | 6 | 47 | — | .208/.232/.305 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA/ROK/INTL3 orgs | 174 | .224/.256/.333 | 3 | 5 | 28 | — | .210/.228/.322 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBKC | 2 | .216/.265/.335 | 0 | 0 | 70 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBKC | 35 | .216/.266/.335 | 1 | 1 | 71 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | — | 46 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 325 | 400 | 375 | 775 | 50 | 351 | 9 | 9 | 348 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 174 | 159 | 45 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 283 | 329 | 340 | 669 | 57 | 349 | 19 | 6 | 298 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 310 | 266 | 73 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 66 | 3 | 34 | 10 | 274 | 359 | 335 | 693 | 60 | 356 | 21 | 10 | 312 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Royals Gold | — | 17 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 67 | 176 | 67 | 243 | 100 | 29 | 12 | 135 | -56 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 141 | 124 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 298 | 365 | 379 | 744 | 81 | 361 | 20 | 9 | 329 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 371 | 330 | 92 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 72 | 6 | 27 | 8 | 279 | 344 | 418 | 763 | 139 | 337 | 19 | 7 | 334 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 269 | 241 | 59 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 69 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 245 | 303 | 290 | 593 | 46 | 341 | 26 | 6 | 266 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 15 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 333 | 615 | 949 | 385 | 250 | 27 | 7 | 402 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 29 | 25 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 440 | 517 | 760 | 1.277 | 320 | 529 | 21 | 10 | 546 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 98 | 95 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 221 | 245 | 305 | 550 | 84 | 269 | 17 | 3 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 395 | 366 | 88 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 97 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 240 | 274 | 352 | 627 | 112 | 302 | 25 | 4 | 272 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 40 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 294 | 400 | 382 | 782 | 88 | 385 | 20 | 12 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 115 | 109 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 220 | 248 | 312 | 560 | 92 | 311 | 30 | 3 | 246 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 23 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 391 | 391 | 739 | 1.130 | 348 | 412 | 17 | 0 | 487 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 36 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 121 | 194 | 121 | 316 | 160 | 22 | 6 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals 1 | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 244 | 311 | 293 | 604 | 49 | 239 | 11 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 174 | 163 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 221 | 253 | 270 | 523 | 49 | 284 | 28 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 310 | 276 | 68 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 92 | 3 | 34 | 10 | 246 | 309 | 301 | 610 | 54 | 341 | 30 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals Gold | — | 17 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 118 | 62 | 180 | 81 | 41 | 6 | 85 | -56 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 21 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 141 | 127 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 283 | 336 | 362 | 698 | 79 | 347 | 25 | 6 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 371 | 340 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 90 | 6 | 27 | 8 | 250 | 298 | 359 | 656 | 109 | 317 | 24 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 269 | 245 | 53 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 83 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 216 | 264 | 253 | 517 | 37 | 308 | 31 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 15 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 333 | 615 | 949 | 385 | 225 | 33 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 29 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 308 | 379 | 500 | 879 | 192 | 394 | 31 | 7 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 395 | 371 | 77 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 119 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 208 | 232 | 305 | 537 | 97 | 267 | 30 | 3 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 115 | 110 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 200 | 221 | 291 | 512 | 91 | 284 | 36 | 3 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 23 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 261 | 261 | 478 | 739 | 217 | 298 | 26 | 0 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals 1 | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 244 | 311 | 293 | 604 | 49 | 270 | 11 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Royals 1 | — | 46 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 325 | 400 | 375 | 775 | 50 | 351 | 9 | 9 | 348 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 174 | 163 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 221 | 253 | 270 | 523 | 49 | 304 | 28 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Royals | — | 174 | 159 | 45 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 283 | 329 | 340 | 669 | 57 | 349 | 19 | 6 | 298 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 292 | 69 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 99 | 3 | 35 | 11 | 236 | 299 | 288 | 586 | 51 | 349 | 30 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 327 | 281 | 74 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 71 | 3 | 35 | 11 | 263 | 349 | 320 | 669 | 57 | 344 | 22 | 10 | 302 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 512 | 467 | 122 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 125 | 7 | 40 | 12 | 261 | 310 | 362 | 672 | 101 | 339 | 24 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 512 | 454 | 129 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 100 | 7 | 40 | 12 | 284 | 350 | 407 | 757 | 123 | 344 | 20 | 8 | 333 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 411 | 378 | 83 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 127 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 220 | 268 | 283 | 551 | 63 | 321 | 31 | 5 | 243 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 411 | 374 | 94 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 96 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 251 | 305 | 337 | 642 | 86 | 330 | 23 | 6 | 286 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 435 | 409 | 85 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 131 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 208 | 234 | 306 | 540 | 98 | 281 | 30 | 3 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 435 | 400 | 98 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 105 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 245 | 286 | 355 | 641 | 110 | 309 | 24 | 5 | 280 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 174 | 168 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 202 | 221 | 310 | 530 | 107 | 292 | 34 | 2 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 174 | 165 | 37 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 224 | 256 | 333 | 589 | 109 | 293 | 26 | 3 | 260 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals 1 | — | 46 | 42 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 238 | 311 | 286 | 597 | 48 | 239 | 11 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 174 | 165 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 218 | 253 | 267 | 520 | 48 | 284 | 28 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 298 | 69 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 99 | 3 | 35 | 11 | 232 | 299 | 282 | 581 | 50 | 327 | 30 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 512 | 474 | 122 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 125 | 7 | 40 | 12 | 257 | 310 | 357 | 667 | 99 | 325 | 24 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 411 | 383 | 83 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 127 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 217 | 268 | 279 | 547 | 63 | 312 | 31 | 5 | 243 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 435 | 418 | 85 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 131 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 203 | 234 | 299 | 533 | 96 | 267 | 30 | 3 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 174 | 168 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 202 | 221 | 310 | 530 | 107 | 286 | 34 | 2 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 435 | 418 | 85 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 131 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 203 | 234 | 299 | 533 | 96 | 267 | 30 | 3 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 174 | 168 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 202 | 221 | 310 | 530 | 107 | 286 | 34 | 2 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | KC | 2% | 200 | 186 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 58 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 267 | 342 | 609 | 124 | 289 | 29 | 6 | 271 | 70 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | KC | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 265 | 335 | 599 | 119 | 287 | 50 | 0 | 267 | 70 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 27% | 130 | 120 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 269 | 343 | 611 | 124 | 288 | 28 | 6 | 272 | 71 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 27% | 35 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 266 | 335 | 602 | 119 | 286 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 71 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 35 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 257 | 333 | 590 | 121 | 273 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 56 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 613 | 131 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 37 | 186 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 214 | 258 | 338 | 596 | 124 | 275 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 56 | -23 | +4 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2293 | 2117 | 483 | 61 | 17 | 28 | 105 | 655 | 22 | 129 | 50 | 228 | 272 | 313 | 585 | 85 | 314 | 29 | 5 | 251 | 56 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 137 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 186 | 6 | 37 | 14 | 228 | 272 | 313 | 585 | 85 | 315 | 29 | 5 | 251 | 56 | -23 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 115 PAwOBA .239 → .203 (−36)K% 29.6% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.57% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.48% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 2.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 21.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.840 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 3.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.67% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 2.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.077 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.99% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .239 → .203; ISO .092 → .080; BABIP .311 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Royals · 23 PAwOBA .472 → .320 (−152)K% 17.4% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.39% | ÷0.985 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.58% | ÷1.019 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 24.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.070 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 3.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷0.939 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 8.26% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 114, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .472 → .320; ISO .348 → .235; BABIP .412 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 395 PAwOBA .267 → .226 (−41)K% 24.6% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.56% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.05% | ÷1.056 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 2.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.25% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.79% | ÷1.073 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 21.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.58% | ÷1.025 | ×0.840 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.97% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.62% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .267 → .226; ISO .112 → .097; BABIP .302 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 269 PAwOBA .260 → .225 (−35)K% 25.7% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.65% | ÷1.014 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.95% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.07% | ÷1.055 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×1.027 | 26.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.07% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×1.025 | ×1.027 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.062 | ×0.940 | ×1.025 | ×1.027 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.872 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 111, 2B 126, 3B 112, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .260 → .225; ISO .046 → .038; BABIP .341 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Royals · 29 PAwOBA .531 → .371 (−160)K% 20.7% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷0.982 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 2.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.11% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 32.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.932 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 3.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 7.92% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .531 → .371; ISO .320 → .226; BABIP .529 → .394. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 15 PAwOBA .391 → .311 (−80)K% 26.7% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.929 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 5.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 10.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.908 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 10.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.033 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 8.58% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .391 → .311; ISO .385 → .300; BABIP .250 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 371 PAwOBA .326 → .284 (−42)K% 19.4% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.41% | ÷1.016 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.28% | ÷1.125 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.62% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.81% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 24.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷1.028 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 5.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.55% | ÷0.920 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.71% | ÷1.047 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.10% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 103, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .326 → .284; ISO .139 → .117; BABIP .337 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 141 PAwOBA .328 → .302 (−26)K% 19.9% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.86% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.51% | ÷0.993 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.29% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.042 | 31.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.009 | ×0.840 | ×1.012 | ×1.042 | 3.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.012 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷0.905 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .328 → .302; ISO .081 → .073; BABIP .361 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .