Tristan Gray
3B Minnesota Twins| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | AAAOAK | 469 | .251/.325/.467 | 19 | 0 | 63 | — | .198/.259/.345 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLBOakland Athle… | 31 | .107/.194/.143 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1.2 | |
| 2025 | 29 | AAACWS | 282 | .270/.342/.472 | 9 | 3 | 67 | — | .214/.265/.350 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLBTB | 86 | .231/.286/.410 | 3 | 0 | 84 | 0.1 | |
| 2026 | 30 | AAAMIN | 139 | .200/.275/.344 | 4 | 2 | 32 | — | .163/.217/.271 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLBMIN | 188 | .225/.272/.324 | 4 | 2 | 65 | -0.2 | |
| 2027PROJ | 31 | MLBMIN | 238 | .215/.272/.359 | 7 | 2 | 76 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ65% MLB | 32 | MLBMIN | 160 | .209/.266/.346 | 4 | 0 | 71 | -0.4 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 496 | 449 | 107 | 38 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 113 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 238 | 303 | 419 | 722 | 180 | 287 | 23 | 8 | 317 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 183 | 156 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 46 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 321 | 414 | 583 | 998 | 263 | 392 | 25 | 11 | 430 | 177 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 495 | 418 | 94 | 16 | 5 | 17 | 61 | 92 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 225 | 336 | 409 | 745 | 184 | 244 | 19 | 12 | 331 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 275 | 248 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 81 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 315 | 427 | 742 | 181 | 329 | 29 | 8 | 327 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 500 | 458 | 103 | 21 | 0 | 33 | 30 | 159 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 225 | 284 | 487 | 771 | 262 | 259 | 32 | 6 | 334 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 525 | 468 | 110 | 25 | 1 | 30 | 46 | 166 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 235 | 312 | 485 | 797 | 250 | 292 | 32 | 9 | 347 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 31 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 107 | 194 | 143 | 336 | 36 | 250 | 52 | 10 | 167 | -1 | -4 | +0 | +1 | -9 | +1 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 469 | 418 | 105 | 25 | 4 | 19 | 41 | 121 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 251 | 325 | 467 | 792 | 215 | 304 | 26 | 9 | 345 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 86 | 78 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 286 | 410 | 696 | 179 | 263 | 22 | 7 | 301 | 84 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 282 | 248 | 67 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 67 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 270 | 342 | 472 | 814 | 202 | 324 | 24 | 9 | 350 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | — | 188 | 173 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 225 | 272 | 324 | 595 | 98 | 312 | 32 | 5 | 264 | 65 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 139 | 125 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 275 | 344 | 619 | 144 | 219 | 19 | 7 | 279 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 305 | 279 | 60 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 95 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 215 | 268 | 330 | 597 | 115 | 293 | 31 | 6 | 265 | 65 | -13 | +0 | -0 | -6 | +7 | -1.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 496 | 460 | 86 | 31 | 1 | 12 | 28 | 163 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 187 | 238 | 337 | 575 | 150 | 251 | 33 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 495 | 436 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 15 | 43 | 114 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 195 | 281 | 349 | 629 | 154 | 218 | 23 | 9 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 275 | 255 | 53 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 95 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 260 | 329 | 589 | 122 | 304 | 35 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 500 | 468 | 78 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 20 | 191 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 167 | 214 | 333 | 547 | 167 | 216 | 38 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 525 | 484 | 84 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 32 | 197 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 174 | 236 | 329 | 564 | 155 | 238 | 38 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 31 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 107 | 194 | 143 | 336 | 36 | 250 | 52 | 10 | 166 | -1 | -4 | +0 | +1 | -9 | +1 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 469 | 429 | 85 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 142 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 198 | 259 | 345 | 604 | 147 | 252 | 30 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 86 | 78 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 286 | 410 | 696 | 179 | 263 | 22 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 282 | 257 | 55 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 81 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 265 | 350 | 616 | 136 | 269 | 29 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 188 | 173 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 225 | 272 | 324 | 595 | 98 | 312 | 32 | 5 | 264 | 65 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 139 | 129 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 163 | 217 | 271 | 489 | 109 | 187 | 22 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 679 | 626 | 119 | 43 | 2 | 17 | 39 | 223 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 190 | 246 | 347 | 592 | 157 | 260 | 33 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 679 | 605 | 157 | 47 | 3 | 23 | 60 | 159 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 260 | 333 | 461 | 794 | 202 | 312 | 23 | 9 | 348 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 495 | 436 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 15 | 43 | 114 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 195 | 281 | 349 | 629 | 154 | 224 | 23 | 9 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 495 | 418 | 94 | 16 | 5 | 17 | 61 | 92 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 225 | 336 | 409 | 745 | 184 | 244 | 19 | 12 | 331 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 275 | 255 | 53 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 95 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 260 | 329 | 589 | 122 | 306 | 35 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 275 | 248 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 81 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 315 | 427 | 742 | 181 | 329 | 29 | 8 | 327 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 500 | 468 | 78 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 20 | 191 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 167 | 214 | 333 | 547 | 167 | 219 | 38 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 500 | 458 | 103 | 21 | 0 | 33 | 30 | 159 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 225 | 284 | 487 | 771 | 262 | 259 | 32 | 6 | 334 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 525 | 483 | 84 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 32 | 197 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 174 | 236 | 329 | 565 | 155 | 244 | 38 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 525 | 468 | 110 | 25 | 1 | 30 | 46 | 166 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 235 | 312 | 485 | 797 | 250 | 292 | 32 | 9 | 347 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 457 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 158 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 193 | 255 | 333 | 587 | 140 | 258 | 32 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 500 | 446 | 108 | 26 | 4 | 19 | 44 | 137 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 242 | 317 | 446 | 763 | 204 | 302 | 27 | 9 | 334 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 335 | 73 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 100 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 270 | 364 | 634 | 146 | 277 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 368 | 326 | 85 | 20 | 4 | 12 | 30 | 86 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 261 | 329 | 457 | 786 | 196 | 309 | 23 | 8 | 339 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 302 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 199 | 248 | 301 | 550 | 103 | 255 | 28 | 5 | 243 | 51 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -1.1 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 327 | 298 | 64 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 86 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 273 | 332 | 606 | 117 | 269 | 26 | 6 | 270 | 51 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -1.1 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 679 | 628 | 119 | 43 | 2 | 17 | 39 | 223 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 189 | 246 | 346 | 591 | 156 | 251 | 33 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 495 | 440 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 15 | 43 | 114 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 193 | 281 | 345 | 626 | 152 | 218 | 23 | 9 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 275 | 255 | 53 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 95 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 260 | 329 | 589 | 122 | 304 | 35 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 500 | 468 | 78 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 20 | 191 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 167 | 214 | 333 | 547 | 167 | 216 | 38 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 525 | 481 | 84 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 32 | 197 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 175 | 236 | 331 | 566 | 156 | 238 | 38 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 458 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 158 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 192 | 255 | 332 | 586 | 140 | 252 | 32 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 341 | 73 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 100 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 270 | 358 | 628 | 144 | 268 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 304 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 197 | 248 | 299 | 548 | 102 | 259 | 28 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 458 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 158 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 192 | 255 | 332 | 586 | 140 | 252 | 32 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 341 | 73 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 100 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 270 | 358 | 628 | 144 | 268 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 304 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 197 | 248 | 299 | 548 | 102 | 259 | 28 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | MIN | 100% | 377 | 346 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 100 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 272 | 358 | 631 | 144 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 281 | 76 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | MIN | 100% | 238 | 219 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 63 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 215 | 272 | 359 | 631 | 144 | 267 | 26 | 6 | 281 | 76 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | MIN | 65% | 246 | 227 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 266 | 346 | 611 | 137 | 262 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -9 | -0 | -4 | +1 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | MIN | 65% | 160 | 147 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 266 | 346 | 612 | 137 | 263 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -6 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 465 | 426 | 91 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 138 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 269 | 336 | 604 | 122 | 284 | 30 | 6 | 267 | 60 | -18 | +0 | -3 | -6 | +10 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 127 | 24 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 193 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 213 | 269 | 333 | 602 | 119 | 284 | 30 | 6 | 267 | 60 | -25 | +1 | -4 | -8 | +14 | -2.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4153 | 3808 | 735 | 163 | 20 | 118 | 250 | 1298 | 49 | 27 | 29 | 193 | 252 | 339 | 591 | 146 | 254 | 31 | 6 | 257 | 60 | -28 | +0 | -4 | -5 | +17 | -2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 115 | 26 | 3 | 18 | 39 | 203 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 193 | 252 | 337 | 589 | 144 | 255 | 31 | 6 | 257 | 60 | -23 | +0 | -4 | -4 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 139 PAwOBA .270 → .215 (−55)K% 18.7% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.71% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 4.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.979 | ×0.972 | 14.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×0.972 | 3.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×0.972 | 0.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 2.75% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .270 → .215; ISO .144 → .105; BABIP .219 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 282 PAwOBA .347 → .267 (−79)K% 23.8% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.76% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.80% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 5.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.55% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 18.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.29% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 6.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.21% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 2.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.97% | ÷1.320 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.59% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .347 → .267; ISO .202 → .137; BABIP .324 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 469 PAwOBA .340 → .262 (−78)K% 25.8% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.80% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.74% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.19% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×0.953 | ×0.992 | 17.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.42% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×0.953 | ×0.992 | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.953 | ×0.992 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.40% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 4.44% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .340 → .262; ISO .215 → .151; BABIP .304 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAADurham Bulls · 525 PAwOBA .339 → .242 (−96)K% 31.6% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.62% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.76% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.88% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 15.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.28% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 6.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.003 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.93% | ÷1.137 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 6.14% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .339 → .242; ISO .250 → .157; BABIP .292 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAADurham Bulls · 500 PAwOBA .326 → .237 (−89)K% 31.8% → 38.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.80% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.60% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.39% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×0.957 | ×1.018 | 15.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | ×1.018 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.957 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.04% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 7.61% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .326 → .237; ISO .262 → .172; BABIP .259 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAADurham Bulls · 275 PAwOBA .320 → .262 (−58)K% 29.5% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.45% | ÷1.029 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.36% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.56% | ÷0.945 | ×0.930 | ×0.987 | ×1.033 | 21.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.78% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×1.033 | 6.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.40% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×1.033 | 1.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.79% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.27% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 89, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .320 → .262; ISO .181 → .130; BABIP .329 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 495 PAwOBA .325 → .278 (−47)K% 18.6% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.59% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.92% | ÷0.963 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 8.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.82% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.18% | ÷0.978 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 15.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.91% | ÷1.028 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 4.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.53% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.21% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.66% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .325 → .278; ISO .184 → .162; BABIP .244 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 496 PAwOBA .311 → .251 (−60)K% 22.8% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.78% | ÷0.983 | ×1.420 | — | — | 32.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.66% | ÷1.022 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 5.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.07% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 13.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.31% | ÷1.012 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 10.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.87% | ÷0.857 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 4.02% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 106, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .311 → .251; ISO .180 → .156; BABIP .287 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).