Tristan Gray — OGILVIE

Tristan Gray3B Minnesota Twins

Age 30 L/R 6'1" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 0.715 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION180 act + 170 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 21971vR 13

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .280 / .372

PA170

HR5

K%29

BB%6

BABIP294

ISO147

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

906.9%

xwOBA

310.286

POWER55

Barrel%

457.6

Avg EV

6089.8

Bat Spd

5972.3

EYE40

Chase%

9012.1%

SPEED45

Sprint

2326.2

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 150 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

127

—

wRC+

224

◀◀L

wOBA

478

241

◀◀L

ISO

364

122

◀◀L

BABIP

353

239

◀◀L

13.0%

31.5%

◀◀L

BB%

4.3%

7.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.715 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.3M		$-2M	-$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	2 teams	—	679	628	116	41	1	20	37	227	7	8	8	185	238	349	587	164	247	33	5	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	2 teams	—	679	605	157	47	3	23	60	159	7	8	8	260	333	461	794	202	312	23	9	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	495	435	85	12	3	18	44	122	9	2	10	195	283	361	644	166	223	25	9	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	495	418	94	16	5	17	61	92	9	2	10	225	336	409	745	184	244	19	12	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	275	256	55	9	3	6	15	92	2	1	1	215	264	344	607	129	306	33	5	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	275	248	61	13	4	8	23	81	2	1	1	246	315	427	742	181	329	29	8	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	500	470	80	13	0	25	18	192	8	4	2	170	214	357	571	187	214	38	4	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	500	458	103	21	0	33	30	159	8	4	2	225	284	487	771	262	259	32	6	334	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	525	484	84	18	1	19	31	196	7	2	3	174	234	333	566	159	240	37	6	246	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	525	468	110	25	1	30	46	166	7	2	3	235	312	485	797	250	292	32	9	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	2 teams	—	500	455	84	17	2	14	35	166	5	0	1	185	251	323	574	138	250	33	7	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	2 teams	—	500	446	108	26	4	19	44	137	5	0	1	242	317	446	763	204	302	27	9	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	368	334	74	18	4	8	22	100	3	3	1	222	276	371	647	150	282	27	6	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	368	326	85	20	4	12	30	86	3	3	1	261	329	457	786	196	309	23	8	339	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	30	MLB	MIN	—	180	166	39	5	0	4	9	56	1	2	0	235	278	337	616	102	321	31	5	269	64	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
YTD	30	MLB	MIN	—	180	166	39	5	0	4	9	56	1	2	0	235	278	337	616	102	321	31	5	272	66	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
ROS	30	MLB	MIN	100%	170	156	35	6	1	5	11	50	1	1	0	224	280	372	652	147	286	29	6	283	75	-5	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.0
ROS	30	MLB	MIN	100%	170	156	35	6	1	5	11	50	1	1	0	224	280	372	652	147	286	29	6	278	71	-6	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
FULL	30	MLB	MIN	—	350	322	74	11	1	9	20	106	2	3	0	230	279	354	633	124	308	30	6	273	67	-13	+1	-0	+1	+10	-0.2
TOT	30	MLB	MIN	—	350	322	74	11	1	9	20	106	2	3	0	230	279	354	633	124	308	30	6	276	69	-12	+1	-0	+1	+10	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	MIN	65%	365	336	72	13	1	10	23	108	3	2	0	214	271	348	619	134	285	30	6	280	73	-11	+0	-4	+1	+10	-0.4
2027	31	MLB	MIN	65%	237	218	48	9	1	7	15	70	2	2	0	220	277	367	644	147	285	30	6	275	68	-8	+0	-3	+1	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	524	480	104	21	2	15	35	155	3	3	0	217	274	362	637	146	284	30	7	274	68	-19	+1	-4	-6	+15	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	129	26	2	19	43	192	4	4	0	217	274	363	637	146	284	30	7	274	68	-24	+1	-5	-8	+18	-1.7
Career	—			—	3877	3554	685	147	16	125	236	1253	45	23	26	193	252	349	601	156	253	32	6	262	59	-182	-6	-5	+7	+110	-7.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	116	25	3	21	40	210	8	4	4	195	255	352	607	158	256	32	6	262	59	-30	-1	-1	+1	+18	-1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	496	449	107	38	2	13	39	113	3	5	5	238	303	419	722	180	287	23	8	317	101	+1	-1	—	—	+14	1.4
2018	22	INTL	Perth Heat	—	183	156	50	9	1	10	21	46	4	3	3	321	414	583	998	263	392	25	11	430	187	+18	-1	—	—	+5	2.3
2019	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	495	418	94	16	5	17	61	92	9	2	10	225	336	409	745	184	244	19	12	331	111	+6	-4	—	—	+14	1.7
2021	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	275	248	61	13	4	8	23	81	2	1	1	246	315	427	742	181	329	29	8	327	108	+3	-0	—	—	+8	1.0
2022	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	500	458	103	21	0	33	30	159	8	4	2	225	284	487	771	262	259	32	6	334	113	+8	+0	—	—	+14	2.2
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	525	468	110	25	1	30	46	166	7	2	3	235	312	485	797	250	292	32	9	347	124	+14	-1	—	—	+15	2.9
2024	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	31	28	3	1	0	0	3	16	0	0	0	107	194	143	336	36	250	52	10	167	-14	-4	+0	+1	-9	+1	-1.2
2024	28	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	469	418	105	25	4	19	41	121	5	0	1	251	325	467	792	215	304	26	9	345	122	+12	-0	—	—	+13	2.5
2025	29	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	86	78	18	5	0	3	6	19	0	0	0	231	286	410	696	179	263	22	7	301	89	-1	+0	-1	+1	+2	0.2
2025	29	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	282	248	67	15	4	9	24	67	3	3	1	270	342	472	814	202	324	24	9	350	126	+8	+0	—	—	+8	1.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	117	106	21	6	0	3	9	35	0	0	0	198	261	340	600	142	261	30	8	266	62	-5	+0	-0	-8	+3	-1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	853	25	6	220	273	364	+3	+1	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	19	4	220	273	364	+2.4	+0.6	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tristan Gray (OGILVIE)	30	50	55	45	40	230/279/354	124	308	9	3	30%	6%	69	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Norel González 2023 · AAA	29	45	50	41→40	41	230/284/385	155	294	18	6	28%	6%	86	+0.8	219/280/352	133	293	15	6	29%	7%	76	+0.0	193/264/308	115	257	13	2	29%	8%	54	-0.7
✕Scott Moore 2014 · MLB	30	45→51	49→55	38→50	43	226/290/375	149	295	16	3	28%	7%	85	+0.7	195/263/319	124	259	13	5	29%	6%	60	-1.0	166/241/274	108	217	11	3	28%	6%	38	-1.3
✕Mason Williams 2021 · MLB	29	48→53	49→50	41→55	43	245/286/387	142	292	17	7	23%	6%	86	+0.8	230/279/358	128	303	13	12	27%	6%	76	+0.1	226/277/338	111	303	11	13	28%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Val Majewski 2011 · AAA	30	44→53	51→45	46→50	44	229/284/384	156	278	20	8	26%	7%	85	+0.7	230/282/347	117	286	11	10	23%	6%	74	-0.1	232/283/327	95	285	5	9	20%	6%	65	-0.2
✕Ryan Flaherty 2016 · MLB	30	41→45	48→55	50→45	47	212/284/356	144	258	16	3	24%	8%	79	+0.3	227/305/342	115	290	12	6	24%	9%	83	+0.6	224/293/354	130	292	15	4	27%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Dee Brown 2008 · AAA	30	46→50	49→50	43→45	42	237/283/376	139	281	17	5	23%	5%	82	+0.5	234/294/373	139	266	15	9	18%	7%	87	+0.8	229/295/367	139	254	14	9	16%	8%	84	+0.5
●Cory Aldridge 2009 · AAA	30	46→50	47→55	43→45	45	226/287/366	141	304	14	7	30%	8%	82	+0.5	237/285/404	167	314	20	4	30%	6%	91	+1.1	214/280/387	173	293	27	5	36%	8%	84	+0.3
✕Raffy Lopez 2018 · MLB	30	42→50	53→50	48→40	42	223/279/392	168	285	21	4	30%	7%	85	+0.7	215/275/375	160	299	20	5	33%	7%	79	+0.3	173/240/302	129	250	17	2	37%	8%	40	-1.3
✕David Bote 2023 · MLB	30	44→48	47→55	49→45	43	220/287/358	138	285	15	8	28%	7%	81	+0.4	229/296/387	158	286	17	8	25%	7%	92	+1.2	221/293/387	166	269	18	6	24%	8%	88	+0.4
✕Colin Moran 2023 · MLB	30	45→55	49→55	46→30	48	228/297/369	142	290	17	3	27%	9%	87	+0.8	226/295/354	128	293	15	6	27%	8%	82	+0.5	216/293/304	88	281	11	0	26%	8%	65	-0.2
✕Nick Green 2009 · MLB	30	41→47	48→50	43→45	38	215/256/350	135	277	16	6	29%	4%	64	-0.8	214/264/338	124	270	12	5	25%	5%	65	-0.7	218/265/354	136	267	13	3	23%	4%	66	-0.4
✕Andy Marte 2014 · AAA	30	45→48	49→55	48→40	43	234/280/378	144	275	18	7	23%	6%	82	+0.5	236/276/370	134	267	15	5	18%	5%	78	+0.2	232/271/359	127	257	14	1	16%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Brett Nicholas 2018 · MLB	30	48→54	46→50	43→40	40	242/280/373	131	297	14	4	24%	4%	80	+0.4	224/273/355	131	282	14	5	25%	6%	72	-0.2	208/262/332	124	259	14	1	25%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Bryce Brentz 2018 · MLB	29	44→46	51→60	46→40	41	226/274/381	155	293	19	4	30%	6%	80	+0.4	214/273/393	179	309	22	4	36%	7%	84	+0.6	189/257/380	191	284	25	1	41%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	40→44	53→55	50	47	215/284/382	167	268	21	7	28%	9%	85	+0.7	225/282/392	167	291	22	5	30%	7%	87	+0.8	217/273/380	163	279	23	2	31%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Brandon Larson 2006 · MLB	30	45→42	50	46→45	44	229/296/383	154	293	18	6	28%	7%	91	+1.1	226/275/382	156	289	20	6	28%	6%	81	+0.4	216/261/366	150	271	21	5	29%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2021 · MLB	30	47→52	45	47→45	42	235/280/356	122	290	13	7	24%	5%	76	+0.0	222/276/349	127	293	14	13	28%	6%	72	-0.2	202/260/316	113	267	14	14	29%	6%	53	-0.6
✕Jason Vosler 2023 · MLB	29	42→43	53→55	49→40	45	223/288/393	170	274	22	6	27%	7%	90	+1.0	215/275/384	169	275	21	6	29%	7%	82	+0.5	205/266/377	172	258	22	4	30%	7%	73	-0.1
✕JT Riddle 2021 · MLB	29	42→52	49→50	49→45	41	217/257/366	149	254	17	7	23%	5%	69	-0.4	203/243/325	122	250	12	5	24%	4%	53	-1.5	195/231/310	115	241	11	2	24%	3%	41	-1.4
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2023 · AAA	29	37→42	52→55	43→45	42	199/262/366	167	247	19	7	28%	6%	72	-0.2	207/272/356	149	273	16	9	29%	7%	73	-0.1	226/290/351	125	289	12	8	25%	7%	75	+0.0