Tristan Gray — OGILVIE

Tristan Gray3B Minnesota Twins

Age 30 L/R 6'1" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 0.715 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION308 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 7273vR 73

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP271

ISO157

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

906.7%

xAVG

170.224

POWER55

Barrel%

447.4

Avg EV

6089.8

Bat Spd

5972.3

EYE40

Chase%

9011.8%

SPEED45

Sprint

2326.2

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 150 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

127

—

wRC+

209

◀◀L

wOBA

478

241

◀◀L

ISO

364

122

◀◀L

BABIP

353

239

◀◀L

13.0%

31.5%

◀◀L

BB%

4.3%

7.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.715 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.1M		$-2M	-$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	496	449	107	38	2	13	39	113	3	5	5	238	303	419	722	180	287	23	8	317	101	+1	-1	—	—	+11	1.0
2018	22	INTL	Perth Heat	—	183	156	50	9	1	10	21	46	4	3	3	321	414	583	998	263	392	25	11	430	177	+17	-1	—	—	+4	2.1
2019	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	495	418	94	16	5	17	61	92	9	2	10	225	336	409	745	184	244	19	12	331	110	+6	-4	—	—	+11	1.3
2021	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	275	248	61	13	4	8	23	81	2	1	1	246	315	427	742	181	329	29	8	327	107	+2	-0	—	—	+6	0.8
2022	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	500	458	103	21	0	33	30	159	8	4	2	225	284	487	771	262	259	32	6	334	112	+7	+0	—	—	+11	1.8
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	525	468	110	25	1	30	46	166	7	2	3	235	312	485	797	250	292	32	9	347	121	+13	-1	—	—	+11	2.4
2024	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	31	28	3	1	0	0	3	16	0	0	0	107	194	143	336	36	250	52	10	167	-1	-4	+0	+1	-9	+1	-1.1
2024	28	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	469	418	105	25	4	19	41	121	5	0	1	251	325	467	792	215	304	26	9	345	120	+11	-0	—	—	+10	2.1
2025	29	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	86	78	18	5	0	3	6	19	0	0	0	231	286	410	696	179	263	22	7	301	90	-1	+0	-1	+1	+2	0.1
2025	29	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	282	248	67	15	4	9	24	67	3	3	1	270	342	472	814	202	324	24	9	350	123	+8	+0	—	—	+6	1.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	117	106	21	6	0	3	9	35	0	0	0	198	261	340	600	142	261	30	8	266	66	-5	+0	-0	-8	+3	-1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	496	460	85	31	1	12	28	163	3	5	5	185	236	335	571	150	248	33	6	249	55	-27	-1	—	—	+11	-1.7
2019	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	495	437	84	13	4	15	42	114	9	2	10	192	277	343	620	151	214	23	8	271	70	-18	-4	—	—	+11	-1.1
2021	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	275	255	52	10	3	5	16	95	2	1	1	204	256	325	582	122	294	35	6	254	58	-14	-0	—	—	+6	-0.8
2022	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	500	468	77	14	0	21	20	191	8	4	2	165	212	329	541	165	212	38	4	233	44	-33	+0	—	—	+11	-2.3
2023	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	525	484	83	19	1	18	32	197	7	2	3	171	234	326	560	155	237	38	6	241	49	-32	-1	—	—	+11	-2.2
2024	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	31	28	3	1	0	0	3	16	0	0	0	107	194	143	336	36	250	52	10	167	-1	-4	+0	+1	-9	+1	-1.2
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	469	429	81	17	3	14	30	153	5	0	1	189	250	340	590	152	246	33	6	257	60	-22	-0	—	—	+10	-1.3
2025	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	86	78	18	5	0	3	6	19	0	0	0	231	286	410	696	179	263	22	7	290	82	-2	+0	-1	+1	+2	0.0
2025	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	282	256	56	12	4	5	16	81	3	3	1	219	273	355	628	137	273	29	6	271	70	-10	+0	—	—	+6	-0.4
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	679	627	116	42	2	16	38	223	7	8	8	185	240	335	575	150	253	33	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	679	605	157	47	3	23	60	159	7	8	8	260	333	461	794	202	312	23	9	348	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	495	437	84	13	4	15	42	114	9	2	10	192	277	343	620	151	220	23	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	495	418	94	16	5	17	61	92	9	2	10	225	336	409	745	184	244	19	12	331	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	275	255	52	10	3	5	16	95	2	1	1	204	256	325	582	122	299	35	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	275	248	61	13	4	8	23	81	2	1	1	246	315	427	742	181	329	29	8	327	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	500	468	77	14	0	21	20	191	8	4	2	165	212	329	541	165	215	38	4	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	500	458	103	21	0	33	30	159	8	4	2	225	284	487	771	262	259	32	6	334	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	525	483	83	19	1	18	32	197	7	2	3	172	234	327	561	155	241	38	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	525	468	110	25	1	30	46	166	7	2	3	235	312	485	797	250	292	32	9	347	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	500	457	84	18	3	14	33	169	5	0	1	184	246	328	575	144	251	34	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	500	446	108	26	4	19	44	137	5	0	1	242	317	446	763	204	302	27	9	334	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	368	334	74	17	4	8	22	100	3	3	1	222	276	368	644	147	282	27	6	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	368	326	85	20	4	12	30	86	3	3	1	261	329	457	786	196	309	23	8	339	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	679	629	116	42	2	16	38	223	7	8	8	184	240	334	573	149	248	33	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	495	441	84	13	4	15	42	114	9	2	10	190	277	340	617	150	214	23	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	275	255	52	10	3	5	16	95	2	1	1	204	256	325	582	122	294	35	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	500	468	77	14	0	21	20	191	8	4	2	165	212	329	541	165	212	38	4	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	525	481	83	19	1	18	32	197	7	2	3	173	234	328	562	156	237	38	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	500	458	84	18	3	14	33	169	5	0	1	183	246	328	574	144	246	34	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	368	340	74	17	4	8	22	100	3	3	1	218	276	362	638	144	271	27	6	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	525	481	83	19	1	18	32	197	7	2	3	173	234	328	562	156	237	38	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	500	458	84	18	3	14	33	169	5	0	1	183	246	328	574	144	246	34	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	368	340	74	17	4	8	22	100	3	3	1	218	276	362	638	144	271	27	6	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	30	MLB MLE	MIN	—	308	284	60	8	1	7	16	86	4	4	1	211	263	320	584	109	273	28	5	256	59	-15	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	MIN	—	188	173	39	5	0	4	10	60	1	2	0	225	272	324	595	98	312	32	5	264	59	-9	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.3
YTD	30	AAA RAW	MIN	—	120	108	25	4	1	4	9	22	3	2	1	231	308	398	706	167	256	18	8	317	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	30	MLB RAW	MIN	—	188	173	39	5	0	4	10	60	1	2	0	225	272	324	595	98	312	32	5	264	65	-8	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.3
ROS	30	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		271	30	10	276	73	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		271	30	10	268	73	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	30	MLB A+C	MIN	—	198	182	40	5	0	4	11	63	1	2	0	220	268	313	581	93	305	32	6	264	60	-10	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.4
TOT	30	MLB MLE	MIN	—	318	293	61	8	1	7	17	89	4	4	1	208	261	314	575	106	270	28	5	256	60	-15	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	365	336	71	12	2	10	22	105	4	3	1	211	268	348	616	137	271	29	6	272	70	-13	+0	-4	+1	+8	-0.7
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	237	218	45	8	1	6	14	68	3	2	0	206	264	335	599	128	271	29	6	265	70	-8	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	364	333	67	14	1	9	24	106	3	2	0	201	261	330	591	129	264	29	7	265	58	-13	+0	-3	-7	+8	-1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	120	25	2	16	43	189	5	4	0	202	262	331	593	129	264	29	7	265	58	-24	+1	-5	-12	+14	-2.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3717	3406	642	145	19	107	226	1197	45	23	27	188	248	336	585	148	250	32	6	254	58	-18	+0	-4	-6	+11	-1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	112	25	3	19	40	209	8	4	5	188	249	336	584	148	249	32	6	254	58	-24	+0	-6	-8	+14	-2.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.3	860	24	6	216	269	356	+3	+1	0.1	0.1
/162	664	19	5	+2.4	+0.6	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tristan Gray (OGILVIE)	30	50	55	45	40	210/267/346	136	271	10	3	28%	6%	73	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Raffy Lopez 2018 · MLB	30	42→51	50	48→40	43	220/277/371	152	281	18	4	28%	7%	82	-0.0	216/278/368	152	301	18	5	33%	8%	81	-0.1	178/244/310	132	257	17	2	37%	8%	50	-1.2
✕Ryan Flaherty 2016 · MLB	30	42→47	48→50	50→45	47	213/285/355	142	260	16	3	24%	8%	81	-0.1	228/306/342	114	292	12	6	24%	9%	86	+0.3	228/311/308	80	298	7	7	24%	10%	73	-0.2
✕Jose Rojas 2022 · MLB	29	42→48	51→60	47→50	45	218/273/384	165	262	19	8	25%	7%	83	+0.1	212/271/392	180	255	23	8	26%	7%	84	+0.2	202/268/404	202	235	26	10	27%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Norel González 2023 · AAA	29	45	49→50	40	42	231/285/377	146	290	17	6	26%	6%	86	+0.3	222/286/351	129	291	14	6	27%	7%	80	-0.1	202/276/313	111	265	12	2	27%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Brett Nicholas 2017 · MLB	29	48→52	46→50	42→40	41	237/281/361	124	297	14	4	25%	5%	80	-0.1	234/279/365	131	294	14	4	25%	5%	80	-0.1	228/271/354	126	286	13	2	25%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Val Majewski 2011 · AAA	30	45→53	47→45	46→50	46	228/284/359	132	276	15	8	23%	7%	81	-0.1	230/284/341	111	283	9	10	21%	7%	76	-0.4	233/286/332	99	283	6	9	19%	6%	71	-0.3
✕JT Riddle 2021 · MLB	29	42→52	49→50	49→45	42	217/258/366	149	253	17	7	23%	5%	73	-0.6	201/242/317	116	247	11	5	23%	4%	55	-1.9	191/228/298	107	236	10	2	23%	3%	44	-1.6
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2023 · AAA	29	38→48	48→50	43→45	42	197/261/345	148	252	15	7	28%	6%	70	-0.8	205/271/344	139	274	14	9	29%	7%	73	-0.6	227/288/354	128	289	13	8	25%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Jake Smolinski 2019 · MLB	30	42→50	48→55	48→45	44	218/281/357	139	265	17	8	25%	7%	80	-0.2	223/293/376	153	279	17	13	26%	7%	88	+0.5	212/285/366	155	258	16	16	24%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Nick Green 2008 · MLB	29	46→47	49→50	42→45	40	231/282/376	145	300	16	7	28%	6%	84	+0.2	215/263/341	126	276	13	5	26%	5%	69	-0.9	210/257/339	129	256	12	3	23%	4%	64	-0.8
✕Brian O'Keefe 2023 · AAA	30	43	50→55	44→40	41	220/276/371	151	294	18	5	31%	7%	81	-0.1	202/263/360	158	259	19	4	29%	7%	74	-0.5	180/239/313	133	225	17	3	29%	7%	52	-0.7
✕Andy Marte 2014 · AAA	30	45→49	48→50	48→40	44	232/282/370	138	274	17	7	23%	6%	83	+0.1	245/288/387	142	274	16	5	17%	6%	89	+0.5	246/287/385	139	270	16	1	16%	5%	87	+0.4
✕Simon Pond 2006 · MLB	29	44→43	50→55	47→45	41	223/278/374	151	293	18	8	30%	6%	82	+0.0	221/276/356	135	296	13	6	29%	7%	78	-0.3	213/269/344	131	284	12	3	28%	7%	72	-0.7
✕Ryan Goins 2018 · MLB	30	46→56	44→45	43→45	46	228/280/344	116	277	11	5	22%	7%	76	-0.4	234/290/350	116	312	10	6	26%	7%	81	-0.1	223/280/319	96	321	7	5	31%	7%	67	-0.7
✕Clint Coulter 2023 · AAA	30	43	50	43→40	41	222/284/377	155	275	18	5	26%	6%	86	+0.3	222/291/357	135	271	14	9	23%	6%	84	+0.2	199/277/318	119	239	11	9	21%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Chad Wallach 2022 · MLB	30	39→49	49→50	47→40	43	204/278/348	144	283	18	4	33%	8%	77	-0.3	196/265/329	133	276	16	5	33%	8%	68	-1.0	191/260/331	140	266	19	2	35%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	41→43	50→55	50	48	212/284/365	153	266	18	7	28%	9%	83	+0.1	219/277/369	150	283	19	5	29%	7%	81	-0.1	209/266/354	145	267	20	2	29%	7%	69	-0.6
✕Dee Brown 2008 · AAA	30	47→51	48→50	43→45	43	237/283/370	134	280	16	5	22%	5%	83	+0.1	234/295/372	138	267	15	9	18%	7%	88	+0.5	229/295/367	139	254	14	9	16%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Jack Mayfield 2021 · MLB	30	42→46	53→55	47→50	42	223/272/393	170	262	21	8	24%	5%	85	+0.2	221/267/374	153	264	17	11	23%	5%	78	-0.3	214/258/364	151	252	17	10	23%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Cory Aldridge 2009 · AAA	30	46→49	46→55	43→45	45	226/288/359	133	300	12	7	28%	8%	82	+0.0	239/287/405	166	315	20	4	30%	6%	93	+0.8	213/279/377	164	290	25	5	35%	8%	83	+0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps