Raffy Lopez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 29 | AAA/AATOR | 273 | .288/.371/.562 | 16 | 0 | 99 | — | .226/.283/.440 | |
| 2017 | 29 | MLBTOR | 63 | .222/.306/.463 | 4 | 0 | 110 | 0.9 | ||
| 2018 | 30 | AAASD | 202 | .261/.330/.489 | 9 | 0 | 48 | — | .181/.230/.330 | |
| 2018 | 30 | MLBSD | 117 | .176/.270/.284 | 3 | 1 | 46 | 0.4 | ||
| 2019 | 31 | AAAATL | 55 | .319/.418/.532 | 2 | 0 | 107 | — | .255/.309/.431 | |
| 2020 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 24 | A+ | Daytona Cubs | — | 133 | 119 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 269 | 341 | 403 | 744 | 134 | 288 | 11 | 10 | 332 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 138 | 117 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 265 | 358 | 342 | 700 | 77 | 290 | 9 | 12 | 314 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 17 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 467 | 529 | 733 | 1.263 | 267 | 636 | 24 | 6 | 543 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 367 | 316 | 78 | 22 | 0 | 8 | 49 | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 247 | 350 | 392 | 742 | 146 | 290 | 18 | 13 | 336 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 239 | 207 | 59 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 52 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 285 | 378 | 329 | 707 | 43 | 377 | 22 | 12 | 329 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 177 | 148 | 44 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 297 | 412 | 466 | 879 | 169 | 339 | 15 | 16 | 394 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 246 | 218 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 266 | 342 | 335 | 676 | 69 | 337 | 20 | 10 | 307 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 169 | 155 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 265 | 297 | 562 | 84 | 274 | 23 | 5 | 252 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 63 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 306 | 463 | 769 | 241 | 267 | 33 | 11 | 331 | 110 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | +1 | 0.9 |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 223 | 198 | 58 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 293 | 369 | 551 | 920 | 258 | 326 | 21 | 9 | 400 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 50 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 380 | 619 | 999 | 357 | 304 | 30 | 16 | 427 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | — | 117 | 102 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 270 | 284 | 554 | 108 | 259 | 37 | 11 | 253 | 46 | -7 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +3 | 0.4 |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 202 | 180 | 47 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 330 | 489 | 819 | 228 | 325 | 28 | 9 | 355 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 55 | 47 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 319 | 418 | 532 | 950 | 213 | 394 | 22 | 15 | 419 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 180 | 156 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 282 | 346 | 629 | 154 | 261 | 36 | 11 | 280 | 76 | -5 | +0 | +4 | +12 | +4 | 1.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 133 | 122 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 280 | 311 | 592 | 90 | 252 | 14 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 138 | 123 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 236 | 299 | 301 | 599 | 65 | 251 | 13 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 17 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 412 | 533 | 945 | 200 | 467 | 35 | 6 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 367 | 336 | 71 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 276 | 333 | 609 | 122 | 260 | 23 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 239 | 220 | 52 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 294 | 273 | 567 | 36 | 332 | 28 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 177 | 160 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 311 | 356 | 667 | 119 | 284 | 18 | 10 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 246 | 226 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 68 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 204 | 259 | 257 | 516 | 53 | 277 | 28 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 169 | 158 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 177 | 217 | 241 | 457 | 63 | 244 | 28 | 4 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 63 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 306 | 455 | 761 | 236 | 267 | 33 | 11 | 330 | 110 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | +1 | 0.9 |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 223 | 207 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 288 | 454 | 742 | 217 | 270 | 26 | 5 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 50 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 260 | 378 | 638 | 200 | 257 | 36 | 10 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB MLE | San Diego Padres | — | 117 | 105 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 243 | 276 | 520 | 105 | 259 | 37 | 9 | 236 | 46 | -7 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +3 | 0.4 |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 202 | 188 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 74 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 181 | 230 | 330 | 560 | 149 | 240 | 37 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 55 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 309 | 431 | 740 | 176 | 330 | 27 | 7 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 288 | 261 | 60 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 230 | 290 | 307 | 596 | 77 | 266 | 15 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 288 | 251 | 70 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 279 | 360 | 394 | 755 | 116 | 306 | 11 | 11 | 336 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 367 | 336 | 71 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 276 | 333 | 609 | 122 | 261 | 23 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA RAW | Tennessee Smokies | — | 367 | 316 | 78 | 22 | 0 | 8 | 49 | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 247 | 350 | 392 | 742 | 146 | 290 | 18 | 13 | 336 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 416 | 380 | 90 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 100 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 301 | 308 | 609 | 71 | 312 | 24 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 416 | 355 | 103 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 57 | 78 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 290 | 393 | 386 | 779 | 96 | 360 | 19 | 14 | 356 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 246 | 226 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 68 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 204 | 259 | 257 | 516 | 53 | 283 | 28 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA RAW | Salt Lake Bees | — | 246 | 218 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 266 | 342 | 335 | 676 | 69 | 337 | 20 | 10 | 307 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 169 | 158 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 177 | 217 | 241 | 457 | 63 | 241 | 28 | 4 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 169 | 155 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 265 | 297 | 562 | 84 | 274 | 23 | 5 | 252 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 336 | 306 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 17 | 25 | 97 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 290 | 444 | 735 | 219 | 268 | 29 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 336 | 294 | 81 | 15 | 2 | 20 | 36 | 82 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 359 | 544 | 903 | 269 | 314 | 24 | 11 | 391 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 319 | 293 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 117 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 177 | 235 | 311 | 546 | 133 | 251 | 37 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 319 | 282 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 308 | 415 | 723 | 184 | 303 | 31 | 10 | 318 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 55 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 309 | 431 | 740 | 176 | 324 | 27 | 7 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | AAA RAW | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 55 | 47 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 319 | 418 | 532 | 950 | 213 | 394 | 22 | 15 | 419 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 288 | 264 | 60 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 290 | 303 | 593 | 76 | 264 | 15 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 367 | 334 | 71 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 213 | 276 | 335 | 611 | 123 | 260 | 23 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 416 | 378 | 90 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 100 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 238 | 301 | 310 | 611 | 71 | 312 | 24 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 246 | 227 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 68 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 259 | 256 | 515 | 53 | 277 | 28 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 169 | 159 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 217 | 239 | 456 | 63 | 244 | 28 | 4 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 336 | 305 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 17 | 25 | 97 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 290 | 446 | 736 | 220 | 267 | 29 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 319 | 294 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 117 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 177 | 235 | 310 | 544 | 133 | 247 | 37 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 55 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 309 | 431 | 740 | 176 | 330 | 27 | 7 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 180 | 156 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 282 | 346 | 629 | 154 | 261 | 36 | 11 | 280 | 66 | -5 | +0 | +4 | +12 | +4 | 1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 563 | 108 | 11 | 0 | 25 | 72 | 231 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 192 | 282 | 345 | 626 | 153 | 261 | 36 | 11 | 280 | 66 | -19 | +1 | +13 | +42 | +14 | 5.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2196 | 2011 | 429 | 87 | 6 | 42 | 155 | 570 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 213 | 273 | 325 | 599 | 112 | 274 | 26 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -5 | +0 | +4 | +12 | +4 | 1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 127 | 26 | 2 | 12 | 46 | 169 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 273 | 324 | 597 | 111 | 275 | 26 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -19 | +1 | +13 | +42 | +14 | 5.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 55 PAwOBA .403 → .326 (−76)K% 21.8% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.82% | ÷0.948 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.73% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.952 | 7.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷1.038 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.952 | 21.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.43% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.952 | 9.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.899 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.952 | 5.08% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .403 → .326; ISO .213 → .186; BABIP .394 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 202 PAwOBA .345 → .239 (−106)K% 27.7% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.72% | ÷0.983 | ×1.290 | — | — | 36.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.92% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.962 | 5.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.962 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.16% | ÷1.032 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 16.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.098 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 6.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.26% | ÷1.045 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.962 | 5.21% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .345 → .239; ISO .228 → .150; BABIP .325 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAABuffalo Bisons · 223 PAwOBA .387 → .317 (−70)K% 20.6% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.63% | ÷0.950 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.52% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.021 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 17.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.55% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.89% | ÷0.903 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 7.14% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 104, 2B 88, 3B 92, K 90, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .387 → .317; ISO .258 → .224; BABIP .326 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 50 PAwOBA .415 → .301 (−114)K% 30.0% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.948 | 10.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.948 | 16.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.024 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.948 | 2.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.948 | 3.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.81% | ÷1.165 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.948 | 9.41% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 105, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .415 → .301; ISO .357 → .243; BABIP .304 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAALouisville Bats · 169 PAwOBA .248 → .208 (−40)K% 23.1% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.984 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.33% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 3.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.97% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×0.989 | ×0.982 | 17.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×0.982 | 6.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.86% | ÷0.882 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 0.81% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 90, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .248 → .208; ISO .084 → .066; BABIP .274 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASalt Lake Bees · 246 PAwOBA .302 → .230 (−72)K% 20.3% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.33% | ÷0.952 | ×1.290 | — | — | 27.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.16% | ÷1.025 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 6.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.38% | ÷1.012 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 22.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.95% | ÷1.001 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.987 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 0.47% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 102, 2B 100, 3B 97, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .302 → .230; ISO .069 → .051; BABIP .337 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAIowa Cubs · 239 PAwOBA .319 → .255 (−65)K% 21.8% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.76% | ÷0.996 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.30% | ÷1.249 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 6.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.26% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.19% | ÷1.021 | ×0.900 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 30.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.58% | ÷1.111 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 1.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.65% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.54% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 104, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 99, BB 150 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .319 → .255; ISO .043 → .033; BABIP .377 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AATennessee Smokies · 177 PAwOBA .375 → .308 (−67)K% 14.7% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.69% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.56% | ÷0.948 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 9.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.13% | ÷0.958 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 19.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.66% | ÷1.140 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 7.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.009 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.54% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 92, 2B 128, 3B 113, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .375 → .308; ISO .169 → .134; BABIP .339 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).