Jose Rojas

1B Syracuse Mets

Age 34 L/R 5'10" / 200 lbs AAA H -5% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	31	AAA/INTL2 orgs	361	.236/.344/.511	21	4	73	—	.180/.263/.391
2025	32	AAAScranton/Wilk…	517	.287/.381/.599	32	15	84	—	.208/.272/.407
2026	33	AAANYM	59	.226/.293/.358	2	1	37	—	.182/.224/.255
2027PROJ10% MLB	34	MLBNYM	17	.236/.302/.421	1	0	106	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBNYM	7	.225/.290/.398	0	0	96	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2022

Avg EV53

Barrel%42

Speed27

xwOBA17

CompsStephen Vogt (age 35) · Yadiel Hernandez (age 34) · Jason Kipnis (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†106

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .302 / .421

PA17

HR1

K%24

BB%6

BABIP276

ISO250

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2022

CONTACT55

xAVG

100.202

POWER60

Barrel%

427.1

Avg EV

5389.3

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

2726.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+0.1	$0.2M	-$5M
Totals		$5M		$0.2M	-$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	23	ROK	Orem Owlz	—	250	221	68	15	3	5	22	29	2	9	4	308	376	471	846	163	333	12	9	368	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	185	172	39	9	1	4	6	35	3	0	1	227	265	360	626	134	255	19	3	273	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	339	317	101	20	5	7	17	64	2	4	8	319	357	479	837	161	379	19	5	366	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	73	69	15	3	0	0	2	13	0	1	0	217	239	261	500	43	259	18	3	221	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	352	312	95	21	3	17	36	75	3	9	4	304	382	554	936	250	353	21	10	407	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	189	174	55	12	4	4	12	25	2	2	3	316	367	500	867	184	349	13	6	379	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	578	515	151	39	7	31	58	131	0	4	4	293	365	577	941	283	335	23	10	404	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	85	68	11	6	0	0	14	13	0	0	0	162	305	250	555	88	190	15	16	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	184	168	35	14	0	6	15	50	1	2	1	208	277	399	676	190	259	27	8	300	91	-2	+0	-3	-5	+4	-0.6
2021	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	241	216	56	11	1	8	23	38	0	4	1	259	331	431	761	171	279	16	10	336	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	57	56	7	2	0	0	0	19	1	0	0	125	140	161	301	36	189	33	0	137	-20	-8	+0	+1	+1	+1	-0.5
2022	29	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	309	274	75	15	3	20	31	64	1	5	2	274	350	569	919	296	285	21	10	393	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	45	35	16	5	0	3	9	6	0	0	0	457	568	857	1.425	400	500	13	20	582	280	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	332	280	68	17	1	21	45	72	2	4	1	243	352	536	887	293	245	22	14	380	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	INTL	Toros del Este	—	29	25	4	2	0	0	3	11	0	0	0	160	250	240	490	80	267	38	10	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	517	446	128	35	4	32	65	108	3	15	2	287	381	599	980	312	311	21	13	420	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	59	53	12	1	0	2	5	8	0	1	0	226	293	358	652	132	227	14	8	289	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	241	224	42	16	0	6	15	69	2	2	1	188	245	339	584	152	242	29	6	262	63	-11	+0	-2	-3	+5	-1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	23	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	250	230	50	10	2	4	13	42	2	9	4	217	265	330	596	113	240	17	5	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	185	174	34	7	1	4	4	43	3	0	1	195	227	316	543	121	216	23	2	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	339	322	85	17	3	6	12	88	2	4	8	264	295	391	686	127	338	26	4	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	73	70	13	2	0	0	1	17	0	1	0	186	197	214	411	29	230	23	1	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	352	325	82	18	3	14	23	90	3	9	4	252	308	455	763	203	304	26	7	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	578	532	118	28	6	22	41	168	0	4	4	222	277	421	699	199	270	29	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	184	168	36	15	0	6	15	50	1	2	1	214	283	411	693	196	259	27	8	303	91	-2	+0	-3	-5	+4	-0.6
2021	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	241	225	47	9	1	6	14	47	0	4	1	209	255	338	593	129	230	20	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	57	56	7	2	0	0	0	19	1	0	0	125	140	161	301	36	189	33	0	139	-20	-8	+0	+1	+1	+1	-0.5
2022	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	309	284	62	12	3	14	21	78	1	5	2	218	275	430	704	211	242	25	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	332	294	53	12	1	16	31	91	2	4	1	180	263	391	654	211	190	27	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	517	472	98	26	4	20	39	132	3	15	2	208	272	407	679	199	240	26	8	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	59	55	10	1	0	1	3	10	0	1	0	182	224	255	479	73	191	17	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	250	230	50	10	2	4	13	42	2	9	4	217	265	330	596	113	247	17	5	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	—	250	221	68	15	3	5	22	29	2	9	4	308	376	471	846	163	333	12	9	368	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	524	497	118	23	4	10	15	131	5	4	9	237	267	360	627	123	298	25	3	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	524	489	140	29	6	11	23	99	5	4	9	286	325	438	763	151	335	19	4	333	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	614	570	137	30	4	20	35	155	5	12	7	240	290	412	702	172	293	25	6	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA RAW	3 teams	—	614	555	165	36	7	21	50	113	5	12	7	297	361	501	862	204	339	18	8	377	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	663	608	136	32	7	26	47	192	0	4	4	224	279	428	707	204	276	29	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	663	583	162	45	7	31	72	144	0	4	4	278	357	539	896	261	315	22	11	385	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	425	393	82	23	1	12	29	97	1	6	2	209	265	364	629	155	245	23	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	425	384	91	25	1	14	38	88	1	6	2	237	307	417	724	180	271	21	9	321	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	366	340	69	14	3	14	21	97	2	5	2	203	253	385	639	182	237	27	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	366	330	82	17	3	20	31	83	2	5	2	248	317	500	817	252	270	23	8	354	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	INTL MLE	Charros de Jalisco	—	45	35	16	5	0	3	9	6	0	0	0	457	568	857	1.425	400	500	13	20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	INTL RAW	Charros de Jalisco	—	45	35	16	5	0	3	9	6	0	0	0	457	568	857	1.425	400	500	13	20	582	280	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	361	320	58	13	1	17	33	99	2	4	1	181	262	388	649	206	195	27	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	361	305	72	19	1	21	48	83	2	4	1	236	344	511	855	275	246	23	13	368	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	517	472	98	26	4	20	39	132	3	15	2	208	272	407	679	199	241	26	8	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	517	446	128	35	4	32	65	108	3	15	2	287	381	599	980	312	311	21	13	420	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	59	55	10	1	0	1	3	10	0	1	0	182	224	255	479	73	200	17	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	—	59	53	12	1	0	2	5	8	0	1	0	226	293	358	652	132	227	14	8	289	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	250	233	50	10	2	4	13	42	2	9	4	215	265	326	591	112	240	17	5	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	524	499	118	23	4	10	15	131	5	4	9	236	267	359	626	122	295	25	3	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	614	569	137	30	4	20	35	155	5	12	7	241	290	413	703	172	291	25	6	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	663	611	136	32	7	26	47	192	0	4	4	223	279	426	705	203	270	29	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	425	392	82	23	1	12	29	97	1	6	2	209	265	365	630	156	243	23	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	366	340	69	14	3	14	21	97	2	5	2	203	253	385	639	182	234	27	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	361	323	58	13	1	17	33	99	2	4	1	180	262	384	646	204	190	27	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	517	470	98	26	4	20	39	132	3	15	2	209	272	409	681	200	240	26	8	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	59	56	10	1	0	1	3	10	0	1	0	179	224	250	474	71	191	17	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	361	323	58	13	1	17	33	99	2	4	1	180	262	384	646	204	190	27	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	517	470	98	26	4	20	39	132	3	15	2	209	272	409	681	200	240	26	8	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	59	56	10	1	0	1	3	10	0	1	0	179	224	250	474	71	191	17	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	NYM	10%	276	250	61	13	2	10	22	66	2	5	1	243	308	432	740	189	286	24	8	325	106	+2	+1	+0	-5	+6	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	NYM	10%	17	16	4	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	236	302	421	723	186	276	24	6	318	106	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYM	6%	136	123	29	6	1	5	11	34	1	1	0	232	296	408	704	176	277	25	8	311	96	-1	+0	-6	-2	+3	-0.6
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYM	6%	7	6	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	225	290	398	688	172	268	29	14	304	96	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	248	230	43	16	0	6	16	71	2	2	1	187	246	335	581	148	242	29	6	263	78	-11	+0	-2	-3	+5	-1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	603	113	42	0	16	42	186	5	5	3	187	246	337	583	149	242	29	6	263	78	-28	+0	-6	-9	+14	-2.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4131	3797	840	191	28	138	269	1036	22	64	32	221	277	395	672	174	264	25	7	284	78	-10	+0	-8	-9	+12	-1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	132	30	4	22	42	163	3	10	5	221	275	395	671	174	263	25	6	284	78	-12	+0	-9	-10	+14	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 59 PAwOBA .287 → .223 (−63)K% 13.6% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.56%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	16.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.47%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	5.51%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.986	×0.942	17.28%
Doubles /BIP	2.22%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.986	×0.942	1.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.986	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.44%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	2.93%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .287 → .223; ISO .132 → .091; BABIP .227 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 517 PAwOBA .410 → .293 (−117)K% 20.9% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.89%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	25.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.38%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.54%
HBP% /PA	0.58%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.52%
Singles /BIP	16.86%	÷1.008	×0.930	×0.950	×0.952	14.07%
Doubles /BIP	10.36%	÷1.020	×0.830	×0.950	×0.952	7.62%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷0.944	×0.970	×0.950	×0.952	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	9.47%	÷1.070	×0.700	—	×0.952	5.90%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .410 → .293; ISO .312 → .212; BABIP .311 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 332 PAwOBA .376 → .281 (−95)K% 21.7% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.69%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	27.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.55%	÷0.977	×0.690	—	×0.962	9.21%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.54%
Singles /BIP	13.94%	÷1.009	×0.930	×0.950	×0.962	11.75%
Doubles /BIP	8.17%	÷1.050	×0.830	×0.950	×0.962	5.90%
Triples /BIP	0.48%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.962	0.37%
Home runs /BIP	10.10%	÷0.909	×0.700	—	×0.962	7.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .376 → .281; ISO .293 → .217; BABIP .245 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 309 PAwOBA .385 → .300 (−85)K% 20.7% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.71%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	25.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.71%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.69%
HBP% /PA	0.32%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.30%
Singles /BIP	17.62%	÷0.968	×0.930	×0.950	×0.982	15.79%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.967	×0.830	×0.950	×0.982	5.72%
Triples /BIP	1.43%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.982	1.44%
Home runs /BIP	9.52%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.982	6.62%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .385 → .300; ISO .296 → .218; BABIP .285 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 241 PAwOBA .328 → .258 (−70)K% 15.8% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.77%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	19.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.13%	÷1.090	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.73%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.22%	÷1.032	×0.930	×0.953	×0.992	17.23%
Doubles /BIP	6.18%	÷1.002	×0.830	×0.953	×0.992	4.84%
Triples /BIP	0.56%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.953	×0.992	0.42%
Home runs /BIP	4.49%	÷0.907	×0.700	—	×0.992	3.44%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .328 → .258; ISO .171 → .134; BABIP .279 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASalt Lake Bees · 578 PAwOBA .395 → .300 (−95)K% 22.7% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.66%	÷1.009	×1.290	—	—	28.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.69%	÷0.980	×0.710	—	×1.018	7.15%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.27%	÷1.007	×0.900	×0.950	×1.018	16.66%
Doubles /BIP	10.16%	÷1.062	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	7.49%
Triples /BIP	1.82%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	1.59%
Home runs /BIP	8.07%	÷1.059	×0.780	—	×1.018	6.06%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .395 → .300; ISO .283 → .207; BABIP .335 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMobile BayBears · 352 PAwOBA .396 → .326 (−71)K% 21.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.31%	÷1.012	×1.220	—	—	25.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.94%	÷1.040	×0.680	—	×0.998	6.49%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.71%
Singles /BIP	22.78%	÷1.021	×0.920	×0.969	×0.998	19.86%
Doubles /BIP	8.86%	÷1.014	×0.910	×0.969	×0.998	7.69%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷0.944	×0.880	×0.969	×0.998	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	7.17%	÷0.959	×0.800	—	×0.998	5.97%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 89, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .396 → .326; ISO .250 → .211; BABIP .353 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASalt Lake Bees · 73 PAwOBA .221 → .188 (−33)K% 17.8% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.81%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	22.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.74%	÷1.068	×0.710	—	×1.033	1.88%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.064	×0.900	×1.035	×1.033	19.37%
Doubles /BIP	5.36%	÷1.045	×0.810	×1.035	×1.033	4.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.969	×0.810	×1.035	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.958	×0.780	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 113, 2B 109, 3B 94, K 101, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .221 → .188; ISO .043 → .035; BABIP .259 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Brian Hunter'91-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,742 PA	2.6	1,742	67	4	226*	288*	432*	-29	+4	0.1	0.8
/162	664	26	2	-11.1	+1.6	0.0	pk7: 1
#5Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
#6Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.4	266	7	2	195	250	351	-5	-2	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	17	6	-11.5	-4.9	-2.0	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Rojas (OGILVIE)	34	55	60	50	60	240/306/428	188	286	6	3	24%	8%	106	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Stephen Vogt 2020 · MLB	35	47→57	56→60	47→40	49	246/306/449	203	282	22	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	216/287/381	165	257	19	5	23%	9%	88	+0.4	179/259/328	149	204	20	1	24%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Yadiel Hernandez 2022 · MLB	34	49→54	53→55	46→45	46	254/308/422	168	300	23	7	24%	7%	105	+1.7	249/297/389	140	311	16	7	24%	6%	93	+0.8	266/311/405	139	325	16	4	23%	6%	103	+0.8
✕Jason Kipnis 2021 · MLB	34	46→56	50→55	49→55	52	234/308/394	160	270	18	8	21%	9%	99	+1.2	234/309/390	156	295	18	7	26%	8%	98	+1.2	215/293/362	147	274	17	2	27%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Fernando Tatis 2009 · MLB	34	47→52	52→55	47→45	48	241/305/410	169	278	20	7	21%	8%	101	+1.4	250/310/410	160	287	17	7	19%	7%	103	+1.5	273/327/425	151	304	13	6	14%	5%	113	+1.4
✕Brad Miller 2023 · MLB	33	43→53	53→60	48→50	49	225/302/393	167	284	23	8	29%	10%	97	+1.1	224/304/369	145	287	17	8	27%	10%	91	+0.7	179/287/296	117	231	13	0	27%	13%	69	-0.2
✕Rickie Weeks Jr. 2017 · MLB	34	47→57	53→55	50→55	50	240/324/415	175	297	21	10	26%	9%	109	+2.0	235/321/397	162	339	18	10	33%	10%	104	+1.6	205/311/338	133	377	13	5	43%	11%	88	+0.1
✕Jorge Cantu 2016 · AAA	34	51→58	55	48→40	47	264/320/449	185	285	23	6	18%	6%	116	+2.5	226/282/349	123	273	13	6	22%	6%	78	-0.3	201/259/306	105	251	12	3	24%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Marlon Anderson 2008 · MLB	34	52→58	51→55	48→50	51	261/320/429	167	291	18	13	17%	8%	111	+2.1	233/291/358	125	273	12	11	19%	7%	83	+0.1	204/252/267	63	246	4	8	18%	6%	47	-0.6
✕Dexter Fowler 2020 · MLB	34	45→55	53→55	45→55	57	231/330/403	172	275	20	9	24%	12%	109	+2.0	243/327/399	156	303	19	10	25%	10%	107	+1.8	236/319/400	165	293	26	6	28%	10%	106	+0.3
✕Asdrúbal Cabrera 2020 · MLB	34	51→61	53→60	48→50	52	262/331/440	178	297	20	4	19%	9%	117	+2.6	242/317/408	166	286	17	4	21%	9%	105	+1.7	231/308/390	159	275	15	1	21%	10%	97	+0.5
●Curtis Granderson 2015 · MLB	34	45→55	54→65	50	54	234/323/414	181	278	22	10	24%	11%	109	+2.0	245/340/449	204	284	24	8	22%	12%	123	+3.0	240/340/459	219	272	26	7	22%	12%	127	+3.4
✕Justin Ruggiano 2016 · MLB	34	48→58	52→60	45→55	46	241/310/407	166	310	20	14	28%	8%	102	+1.5	221/278/371	150	296	18	9	30%	7%	82	+0.0	198/250/338	140	265	17	6	31%	6%	62	-0.5
✕Miguel Olivo 2012 · MLB	34	45→50	54→60	45→50	38	236/272/409	172	291	23	8	28%	5%	88	+0.5	234/266/399	165	293	22	6	28%	4%	84	+0.1	230/263/370	140	302	17	9	29%	4%	74	-0.3
✕Kelly Johnson 2016 · MLB	34	48→58	52→55	44→50	47	247/307/412	165	295	21	6	24%	8%	102	+1.5	251/309/409	158	294	19	8	21%	7%	102	+1.5	251/307/396	146	288	18	7	20%	7%	99	+0.7
✕Chris Young 2018 · MLB	34	48	52→60	46→55	52	243/320/416	173	282	19	8	21%	9%	107	+1.9	228/306/401	173	275	21	10	24%	9%	99	+1.3	165/250/354	189	182	28	9	29%	9%	70	-0.2
✕David Dellucci 2008 · MLB	34	49→46	56→65	46→50	54	255/337/460	205	293	23	6	21%	10%	124	+3.1	237/304/389	152	286	15	7	22%	7%	96	+1.0	230/297/374	144	280	14	6	22%	6%	90	+0.3
✕Michael Tucker 2005 · MLB	34	51	49→55	48→55	56	251/332/410	159	294	15	11	20%	11%	110	+2.1	229/315/360	131	272	12	9	19%	11%	93	+0.8	208/300/322	114	250	9	9	20%	11%	78	-0.2
✕Jason Castro 2021 · MLB	34	46→54	54→55	46→30	51	229/322/414	185	316	21	4	32%	12%	108	+1.9	222/316/391	169	317	20	6	33%	11%	101	+1.4	229/345/435	206	296	28	0	30%	13%	123	+0.9
✕Ramon Castro 2010 · MLB	34	45	58→55	46→40	49	244/306/444	200	273	27	4	22%	8%	109	+2.0	247/311/445	198	288	27	6	24%	8%	112	+2.2	252/309/461	209	269	36	4	22%	8%	115	+0.6
✕Garrett Jones 2015 · MLB	34	49→52	54→60	46→50	48	251/306/442	191	289	21	3	22%	7%	109	+2.0	240/296/403	163	288	18	5	23%	7%	96	+1.0	213/255/353	139	254	18	0	24%	5%	70	-0.2

Jose Rojas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps