Shane Matheny
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26 | AAA/AASF | 432 | .243/.360/.403 | 14 | 4 | 71 | — | .205/.290/.329 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA/AASF | 537 | .230/.363/.383 | 14 | 17 | 73 | — | .197/.296/.315 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA/A+/ROKLAA | 189 | .239/.349/.415 | 3 | 2 | 55 | — | .186/.274/.316 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 363 | 317 | 65 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 109 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 205 | 296 | 287 | 583 | 82 | 285 | 30 | 10 | 269 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 61 | 57 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 361 | 526 | 887 | 211 | 375 | 23 | 7 | 389 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 390 | 339 | 72 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 42 | 112 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 306 | 333 | 640 | 121 | 290 | 29 | 11 | 290 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 211 | 174 | 36 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 67 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 337 | 345 | 681 | 138 | 305 | 32 | 16 | 311 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 50 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 220 | 319 | 539 | 149 | 273 | 46 | 6 | 241 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 382 | 315 | 80 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 58 | 115 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 254 | 378 | 416 | 794 | 162 | 360 | 30 | 15 | 357 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 213 | 172 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 69 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 221 | 365 | 302 | 667 | 81 | 343 | 32 | 18 | 315 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 324 | 267 | 63 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 51 | 84 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 236 | 362 | 434 | 797 | 199 | 297 | 26 | 16 | 353 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 69 | 58 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 310 | 412 | 483 | 895 | 172 | 459 | 29 | 14 | 392 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 90 | 72 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 181 | 330 | 319 | 649 | 139 | 240 | 24 | 13 | 298 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | ROK | ACL Angels | — | 30 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 267 | 517 | 784 | 276 | 300 | 27 | 3 | 334 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 363 | 332 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 147 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 166 | 226 | 223 | 449 | 57 | 263 | 40 | 6 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 61 | 58 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 295 | 448 | 743 | 190 | 330 | 31 | 5 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 390 | 356 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 151 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 157 | 221 | 239 | 460 | 81 | 246 | 39 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 211 | 187 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 81 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 171 | 255 | 273 | 528 | 102 | 261 | 38 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 50 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 160 | 208 | 368 | 83 | 255 | 56 | 4 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 382 | 334 | 72 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 142 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 216 | 307 | 344 | 651 | 129 | 331 | 37 | 10 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 213 | 183 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 76 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 197 | 303 | 257 | 560 | 60 | 310 | 36 | 13 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 324 | 283 | 56 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 103 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 198 | 291 | 353 | 644 | 155 | 267 | 32 | 11 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 69 | 61 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 262 | 338 | 410 | 748 | 148 | 384 | 36 | 10 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 90 | 76 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 132 | 250 | 224 | 474 | 92 | 202 | 32 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 30 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 172 | 200 | 379 | 579 | 207 | 218 | 37 | 3 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 363 | 332 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 147 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 166 | 226 | 223 | 449 | 57 | 274 | 40 | 6 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A RAW | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 363 | 317 | 65 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 109 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 205 | 296 | 287 | 583 | 82 | 285 | 30 | 10 | 269 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 414 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 170 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 231 | 263 | 494 | 92 | 266 | 38 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 451 | 396 | 90 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 126 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 227 | 314 | 361 | 675 | 134 | 303 | 28 | 10 | 303 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 211 | 187 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 81 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 171 | 255 | 273 | 528 | 102 | 276 | 38 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 211 | 174 | 36 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 67 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 337 | 345 | 681 | 138 | 305 | 32 | 16 | 311 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 382 | 78 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 41 | 170 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 204 | 290 | 325 | 614 | 120 | 332 | 39 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 432 | 362 | 88 | 14 | 1 | 14 | 61 | 138 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 243 | 360 | 403 | 763 | 160 | 351 | 32 | 14 | 343 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 466 | 93 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 62 | 179 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 200 | 298 | 318 | 615 | 118 | 292 | 33 | 12 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 537 | 439 | 101 | 19 | 3 | 14 | 89 | 153 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 230 | 363 | 383 | 746 | 153 | 314 | 28 | 17 | 338 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 189 | 167 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 65 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 180 | 263 | 293 | 557 | 114 | 277 | 34 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 189 | 159 | 38 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 239 | 349 | 415 | 765 | 176 | 327 | 26 | 12 | 338 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 363 | 334 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 147 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 165 | 226 | 222 | 448 | 57 | 263 | 40 | 6 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 416 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 170 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 231 | 262 | 493 | 91 | 257 | 38 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 211 | 188 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 81 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 170 | 255 | 271 | 526 | 101 | 261 | 38 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 383 | 78 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 41 | 170 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 204 | 290 | 324 | 613 | 120 | 322 | 39 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 467 | 93 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 62 | 179 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 199 | 298 | 317 | 614 | 118 | 284 | 33 | 12 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 189 | 168 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 65 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 179 | 263 | 292 | 555 | 113 | 271 | 34 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 189 | 168 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 65 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 179 | 263 | 292 | 555 | 113 | 271 | 34 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2183 | 1948 | 359 | 58 | 12 | 38 | 187 | 812 | 22 | 29 | 12 | 184 | 263 | 285 | 548 | 101 | 288 | 37 | 9 | 246 | 52 | -124 | +1 | +0 | +8 | +47 | -6.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 107 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 56 | 242 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 184 | 264 | 284 | 549 | 100 | 289 | 37 | 9 | 246 | 52 | -37 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 90 PAwOBA .294 → .226 (−68)K% 24.4% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.44% | ÷1.018 | ×1.350 | — | — | 32.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.018 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.948 | 8.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.44% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.948 | 3.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.00% | ÷0.969 | ×0.910 | ×1.004 | ×0.948 | 12.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×0.948 | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.004 | ×0.948 | 2.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.948 | 1.72% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 94, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .294 → .226; ISO .139 → .108; BABIP .240 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 69 PAwOBA .378 → .301 (−77)K% 29.0% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.99% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷0.944 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.95% | ÷1.030 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 25.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.16% | ÷1.141 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 9.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 2.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.886 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.06% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 94, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .378 → .301; ISO .172 → .131; BABIP .459 → .384. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Angels · 30 PAwOBA .324 → .203 (−121)K% 26.7% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.004 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷1.026 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 1.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.958 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 11.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.053 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 6.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 3.90% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 92, 2B 93, 3B 111, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .324 → .203; ISO .276 → .169; BABIP .300 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 324 PAwOBA .347 → .287 (−59)K% 25.9% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.43% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 10.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.58% | ÷0.978 | ×0.970 | ×0.973 | ×0.978 | 17.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.74% | ÷1.003 | ×0.860 | ×0.973 | ×0.978 | 7.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.973 | ×0.978 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.01% | ÷0.906 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 5.06% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .347 → .287; ISO .199 → .169; BABIP .297 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 213 PAwOBA .311 → .260 (−51)K% 32.4% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.39% | ÷1.087 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.84% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 12.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.10% | ÷0.992 | ×0.930 | ×0.976 | ×1.003 | 27.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.91% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.003 | 2.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷0.956 | ×0.970 | ×0.976 | ×1.003 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.91% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.94% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .311 → .260; ISO .081 → .064; BABIP .343 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 382 PAwOBA .348 → .286 (−62)K% 30.1% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.10% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.92% | ÷1.018 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 10.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 25.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.50% | ÷1.011 | ×0.860 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 5.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.98% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .348 → .286; ISO .162 → .133; BABIP .360 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 50 PAwOBA .234 → .167 (−68)K% 46.0% → 56.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 46.00% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 55.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 20.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 3.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 6.01% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .234 → .167; ISO .149 → .092; BABIP .273 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 211 PAwOBA .306 → .236 (−71)K% 31.8% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.75% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.64% | ÷1.134 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 9.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.63% | ÷0.970 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 18.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.35% | ÷1.098 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.74% | ÷0.923 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.15% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 94, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 101, BB 127 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .306 → .236; ISO .138 → .112; BABIP .305 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).