Shane Matheny — OGILVIE

Shane Matheny3B Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 30 L/R 6'1" / 205 lbs A+ K +5%HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 203 proj PA

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .288 / .328

PA18

HR0

K%32

BB%10

ISO127

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	363	317	65	4	2	6	36	109	5	2	4	205	296	287	583	82	285	30	10	269	68	-14	-1	—	—	+8	-0.7
2019	23	A+	San Jose Giants	—	61	57	18	3	0	3	4	14	0	0	0	316	361	526	887	211	375	23	7	389	150	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2019	23	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	390	339	72	16	2	7	42	112	4	1	1	212	306	333	640	121	290	29	11	290	82	-8	-0	—	—	+8	0.0
2021	25	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	211	174	36	10	1	4	33	67	1	3	1	207	337	345	681	138	305	32	16	311	96	-1	+0	—	—	+5	0.4
2022	26	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	50	47	8	1	0	2	3	23	0	0	0	170	220	319	539	149	273	46	6	241	49	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	26	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	382	315	80	13	1	12	58	115	5	4	0	254	378	416	794	162	360	30	15	357	128	+13	+1	—	—	+8	2.2
2023	27	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	213	172	38	3	1	3	38	69	1	9	2	221	365	302	667	81	343	32	18	315	99	-0	+1	—	—	+5	0.5
2023	27	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	324	267	63	16	2	11	51	84	2	8	2	236	362	434	797	199	297	26	16	353	125	+10	+1	—	—	+7	1.8
2024	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	69	58	18	5	1	1	10	20	0	1	0	310	412	483	895	172	459	29	14	392	151	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	28	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	90	72	13	3	2	1	12	22	4	0	1	181	330	319	649	139	240	24	13	298	88	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.0
2024	28	ROK	ACL Angels	—	30	29	7	1	2	1	1	8	0	1	1	241	267	517	784	276	300	27	3	334	112	+0	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	363	332	55	3	2	4	21	147	5	2	4	166	226	223	449	57	263	40	6	203	24	-33	-1	—	—	+8	-2.7
2019	23	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	—	61	58	15	2	0	3	3	19	0	0	0	259	295	448	743	190	331	31	5	306	93	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2019	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	390	355	57	10	2	5	26	151	4	1	1	161	226	242	468	82	248	39	7	210	28	-33	-0	—	—	+8	-2.6
2021	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	211	187	32	8	1	3	20	81	1	3	1	171	255	273	528	102	262	38	9	236	46	-14	+0	—	—	+5	-0.9
2022	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	50	48	5	1	0	1	2	30	0	0	0	104	140	188	328	83	245	60	4	153	-10	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2022	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	382	334	72	11	1	10	39	142	5	4	0	216	307	344	651	129	327	37	10	285	79	-10	+1	—	—	+8	-0.0
2023	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	213	183	32	2	1	2	27	82	1	9	2	175	284	230	514	55	298	38	13	248	54	-12	+1	—	—	+5	-0.6
2023	27	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	324	283	58	14	2	10	35	103	2	8	2	205	297	375	671	170	268	32	11	290	82	-7	+1	—	—	+7	0.1
2024	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	69	61	14	3	1	1	7	27	0	1	0	230	309	361	669	131	373	39	10	286	80	-2	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2024	28	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	90	77	10	2	1	1	7	30	4	0	1	130	239	221	459	91	203	33	8	221	36	-7	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2024	28	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	—	30	29	5	1	1	1	1	11	0	1	1	172	200	379	579	207	232	37	3	215	32	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2018	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	363	332	55	3	2	4	21	147	5	2	4	166	226	223	449	57	274	40	6	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	—	363	317	65	4	2	6	36	109	5	2	4	205	296	287	583	82	285	30	10	269	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	451	413	72	13	2	8	29	170	4	1	1	174	235	274	509	99	268	38	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	451	396	90	19	2	10	46	126	4	1	1	227	314	361	675	134	303	28	10	303	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	211	187	32	8	1	3	20	81	1	3	1	171	255	273	528	102	276	38	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	211	174	36	10	1	4	33	67	1	3	1	207	337	345	681	138	305	32	16	311	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	432	382	76	11	1	11	41	173	5	4	0	199	285	319	604	120	327	40	9	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	432	362	88	14	1	14	61	138	5	4	0	243	360	403	763	160	351	32	14	343	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	537	466	90	16	3	12	62	185	3	17	4	193	292	318	609	124	285	34	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	537	439	101	19	3	14	89	153	3	17	4	230	363	383	746	153	314	28	17	338	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	189	167	28	6	3	2	15	68	4	2	2	168	253	275	528	108	265	36	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	189	159	38	9	5	3	23	50	4	2	2	239	349	415	765	176	327	26	12	338	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	363	334	55	3	2	4	21	147	5	2	4	165	226	222	448	57	263	40	6	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	451	415	72	13	2	8	29	170	4	1	1	173	235	272	508	99	259	38	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	211	188	32	8	1	3	20	81	1	3	1	170	255	271	526	101	262	38	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	432	383	76	11	1	11	41	173	5	4	0	198	285	319	604	120	318	40	9	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	537	467	90	16	3	12	62	185	3	17	4	193	292	317	609	124	280	34	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	189	168	28	6	3	2	15	68	4	2	2	167	253	274	526	107	270	36	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	537	467	90	16	3	12	62	185	3	17	4	193	292	317	609	124	280	34	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	189	168	28	6	3	2	15	68	4	2	2	167	253	274	526	107	270	36	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	30	MLB MLE	LAA	0%	18	16	3	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	188	278	250	528	62	287	33	11	281	77	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	LAA	22%	190	168	34	7	1	4	18	59	2	3	1	202	287	327	615	125	285	31	9	282	77	-5	+0	-3	+1	+4	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	LAA	22%	41	37	7	1	0	1	4	13	0	1	0	189	268	297	566	108	284	32	10	275	77	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	41	37	7	1	0	1	4	13	0	1	0	189	268	297	566	108	261	32	10	275	54	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	111	16	0	16	63	206	0	16	0	189	268	298	566	109	260	32	10	275	54	-18	+3	-10	+2	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	2391	2131	390	65	13	44	208	889	24	32	13	183	263	288	551	105	284	37	9	248	54	-6	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	107	18	4	12	57	242	7	9	4	185	266	292	558	107	288	37	9	248	54	-18	+1	-9	+2	+14	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shane Matheny (OGILVIE)	30	—	—	—	—	202/288/328	126	287	4	4	32%	10%	77	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43	46→50	49→50	42	215/271/341	126	287	13	11	30%	6%	72	-0.7	204/270/355	151	326	19	14	41%	7%	76	-0.4	143/213/283	140	229	22	18	47%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Johnny Monell 2015 · AAA	29	43→44	47→50	48→45	45	217/280/354	136	279	14	8	27%	8%	78	-0.3	234/285/355	121	285	13	7	22%	6%	80	-0.1	234/285/350	116	290	12	4	23%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Ryan Flaherty 2017 · MLB	31	44→47	45→50	51→45	48	219/292/344	125	279	13	5	26%	9%	81	-0.1	229/305/344	115	296	12	7	25%	9%	86	+0.3	218/290/334	116	286	13	4	27%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→45	45→55	47→50	44	212/276/337	125	273	13	11	27%	7%	74	-0.6	204/271/326	122	279	14	10	30%	7%	70	-0.9	176/257/306	130	226	18	11	30%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Cole Sturgeon 2022 · AAA	30	48→49	45→40	49→50	41	234/287/356	122	307	12	11	27%	6%	81	-0.1	219/274/324	105	263	10	12	20%	6%	69	-0.9	210/264/300	89	250	9	11	19%	6%	57	-1.5
✕Michael Hollimon 2012 · AAA	30	38→48	48→50	51→50	47	200/268/342	142	256	16	9	28%	8%	72	-0.7	207/270/338	131	277	14	9	29%	8%	71	-0.8	180/241/299	119	244	11	5	30%	7%	50	-0.7
✕Niko Vasquez 2019 · AAA	30	46→41	48→50	47→45	42	234/288/376	142	298	16	10	27%	6%	87	+0.4	217/280/334	117	303	13	9	31%	7%	74	-0.5	189/254/277	88	267	12	4	32%	6%	50	-0.9
✕Jason Smith 2007 · MLB	30	44→35	48→55	53→50	40	225/270/371	147	295	15	14	29%	6%	78	-0.3	205/242/351	146	290	17	8	35%	4%	63	-1.3	178/208/309	131	254	16	7	37%	3%	39	-1.7
✕Justin Leone 2006 · MLB	29	43→41	46→50	48→55	46	212/289/341	129	297	13	8	31%	9%	80	-0.2	211/289/355	144	273	17	13	28%	9%	83	+0.1	202/286/351	149	254	18	16	27%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Clete Thomas 2014 · MLB	30	42→52	46→45	48→55	42	211/266/339	128	287	13	13	31%	7%	70	-0.9	221/286/333	112	298	10	14	27%	8%	76	-0.4	213/279/283	70	293	2	21	26%	8%	59	-0.6
✕Jake Hager 2023 · MLB	30	41→51	44→50	50	46	207/273/323	117	270	12	11	27%	8%	69	-0.9	204/256/312	108	292	9	8	31%	6%	59	-1.6	180/221/279	99	268	6	2	34%	4%	36	-0.9
✕Steven Lerud 2015 · AAA	30	45→42	41→45	48→40	48	216/300/313	97	298	8	5	28%	9%	78	-0.3	219/297/297	78	310	6	5	29%	8%	72	-0.7	211/293/257	46	307	3	0	29%	8%	58	-0.6
✕Beau Taylor 2021 · MLB	31	43→50	44→45	48→30	50	207/299/325	118	300	11	5	32%	11%	80	-0.2	207/292/312	105	299	11	5	32%	9%	74	-0.5	189/281/272	83	275	9	0	32%	9%	59	-0.6
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	41→43	50→55	50	48	212/284/365	153	266	18	7	28%	9%	83	+0.1	219/277/369	150	283	19	5	29%	7%	81	-0.1	209/266/354	145	267	20	2	29%	7%	69	-0.6
✕Christian Lopes 2022 · AAA	29	44→51	47→45	49→50	46	218/300/356	138	295	15	11	30%	9%	87	+0.4	214/288/327	113	314	10	11	32%	8%	76	-0.4	188/264/265	77	288	4	9	33%	8%	51	-0.8
✕Tyler Saladino 2019 · MLB	30	45→47	43→45	51→55	46	222/287/329	107	284	11	16	25%	8%	75	-0.5	220/290/381	161	284	20	14	29%	8%	89	+0.5	199/274/379	180	248	24	14	30%	9%	80	-0.1
✕David Matranga 2008 · AAA	31	40	46→45	51→50	43	206/275/329	123	266	14	13	28%	7%	72	-0.7	219/296/344	125	296	13	9	29%	8%	82	+0.0	211/297/329	119	288	12	5	29%	9%	78	-0.1
✕Bradley Zimmer 2023 · MLB	30	44→51	45→50	51→60	41	209/305/329	119	321	13	20	36%	8%	84	+0.1	203/284/320	117	333	13	22	40%	7%	74	-0.6	169/255/258	89	305	10	32	44%	7%	47	-1.3
✕D.J. Peterson 2022 · AAA	30	43→44	47→50	50→40	41	215/274/348	133	292	15	11	31%	6%	75	-0.5	209/283/372	163	294	20	7	34%	8%	84	+0.2	174/256/339	165	233	22	1	35%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Sherman Johnson 2021 · AAA	31	43→50	42→45	46→50	45	208/275/313	105	287	9	10	30%	8%	68	-1.0	203/292/312	109	290	9	9	30%	10%	74	-0.5	162/272/253	91	236	7	5	31%	11%	51	-1.0