Jackson Cluff
SS Iowa Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/AAWSH | 328 | .229/.340/.400 | 10 | 21 | 54 | — | .181/.268/.307 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAAWSH | 383 | .242/.353/.422 | 12 | 23 | 67 | — | .195/.276/.324 |
| 2026 | 29 | AAACHC | 284 | .164/.296/.306 | 7 | 18 | 26 | — | .131/.231/.233 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 30 | MLBCHC | 16 | .181/.267/.300 | 0 | 1 | 60 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 31 | MLBCHC | 46 | .180/.265/.296 | 1 | 2 | 59 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 280 | 240 | 55 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 63 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 229 | 325 | 367 | 691 | 137 | 284 | 22 | 9 | 308 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 144 | 126 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 190 | 282 | 278 | 559 | 87 | 253 | 27 | 6 | 260 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 22 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 409 | 333 | 742 | 56 | 333 | 14 | 9 | 353 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 17 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 333 | 412 | 333 | 745 | 500 | 29 | 6 | 350 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 96 | 79 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 24 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 342 | 441 | 456 | 897 | 114 | 464 | 25 | 15 | 392 | 152 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 406 | 356 | 69 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 128 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 194 | 279 | 309 | 588 | 115 | 280 | 32 | 9 | 265 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 311 | 247 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 54 | 85 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 206 | 359 | 368 | 728 | 162 | 280 | 27 | 17 | 331 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 307 | 258 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 92 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 225 | 333 | 388 | 721 | 163 | 308 | 30 | 12 | 320 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 21 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 294 | 429 | 588 | 1.017 | 294 | 286 | 10 | 14 | 442 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 383 | 322 | 78 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 51 | 110 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 242 | 353 | 422 | 775 | 180 | 324 | 29 | 13 | 343 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 284 | 232 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 86 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 164 | 296 | 306 | 602 | 142 | 220 | 30 | 13 | 275 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 280 | 249 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 90 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 169 | 245 | 269 | 514 | 100 | 232 | 32 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 144 | 129 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 49 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 155 | 232 | 209 | 442 | 54 | 229 | 34 | 4 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 22 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 364 | 316 | 679 | 53 | 294 | 18 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 17 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 294 | 200 | 494 | 377 | 41 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 406 | 366 | 58 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 157 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 158 | 226 | 251 | 477 | 93 | 246 | 39 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 311 | 265 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 103 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 166 | 278 | 283 | 561 | 117 | 240 | 33 | 12 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 307 | 269 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 115 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 175 | 260 | 290 | 550 | 115 | 257 | 37 | 8 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 21 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 278 | 381 | 556 | 937 | 278 | 252 | 10 | 10 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 383 | 339 | 66 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 128 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 195 | 276 | 324 | 600 | 130 | 271 | 33 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 284 | 245 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 103 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 131 | 231 | 233 | 464 | 102 | 181 | 36 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 280 | 249 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 90 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 169 | 245 | 269 | 514 | 100 | 239 | 32 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 280 | 240 | 55 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 63 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 229 | 325 | 367 | 691 | 137 | 284 | 22 | 9 | 308 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 279 | 252 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 91 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 171 | 237 | 222 | 459 | 52 | 252 | 33 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 279 | 238 | 61 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 71 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 256 | 354 | 345 | 699 | 88 | 345 | 25 | 9 | 318 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 406 | 366 | 58 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 157 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 158 | 226 | 251 | 477 | 93 | 256 | 39 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 406 | 356 | 69 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 128 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 194 | 279 | 309 | 588 | 115 | 280 | 32 | 9 | 265 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 311 | 265 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 103 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 166 | 278 | 283 | 561 | 117 | 245 | 33 | 12 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 311 | 247 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 54 | 85 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 206 | 359 | 368 | 728 | 162 | 280 | 27 | 17 | 331 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 287 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 118 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 181 | 268 | 307 | 575 | 125 | 274 | 36 | 9 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 328 | 275 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 94 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 229 | 340 | 400 | 740 | 171 | 306 | 29 | 12 | 328 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 383 | 339 | 66 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 128 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 195 | 276 | 324 | 600 | 130 | 277 | 33 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | Rochester Red Wings | — | 383 | 322 | 78 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 51 | 110 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 242 | 353 | 422 | 775 | 180 | 324 | 29 | 13 | 343 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 284 | 245 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 103 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 131 | 231 | 233 | 464 | 102 | 194 | 36 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 284 | 232 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 86 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 164 | 296 | 306 | 602 | 142 | 220 | 30 | 13 | 275 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 280 | 253 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 90 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 166 | 245 | 265 | 509 | 99 | 232 | 32 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 279 | 255 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 91 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 169 | 237 | 220 | 457 | 51 | 251 | 33 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 406 | 371 | 58 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 157 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 156 | 226 | 248 | 474 | 92 | 246 | 39 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 311 | 267 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 103 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 165 | 278 | 281 | 559 | 116 | 240 | 33 | 12 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 291 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 118 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 179 | 268 | 302 | 570 | 124 | 257 | 36 | 9 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 383 | 342 | 66 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 128 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 193 | 276 | 322 | 597 | 129 | 271 | 33 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 284 | 250 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 103 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 128 | 231 | 228 | 459 | 100 | 181 | 36 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 291 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 118 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 179 | 268 | 302 | 570 | 124 | 257 | 36 | 9 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 383 | 342 | 66 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 128 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 193 | 276 | 322 | 597 | 129 | 271 | 33 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 284 | 250 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 103 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 128 | 231 | 228 | 459 | 100 | 181 | 36 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | CHC | 10% | 334 | 296 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 110 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 179 | 265 | 298 | 563 | 119 | 253 | 33 | 9 | 257 | 60 | -16 | +2 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | CHC | 10% | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 267 | 300 | 567 | 119 | 257 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 60 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | CHC | 27% | 168 | 149 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 179 | 263 | 294 | 557 | 116 | 253 | 33 | 9 | 255 | 59 | -8 | +1 | -3 | +2 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | CHC | 27% | 46 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 180 | 265 | 296 | 561 | 116 | 256 | 33 | 9 | 257 | 59 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 46 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 171 | 261 | 268 | 529 | 98 | 240 | 33 | 9 | 257 | 46 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 99 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 212 | 14 | 28 | 0 | 171 | 262 | 268 | 529 | 97 | 241 | 33 | 9 | 257 | 46 | -32 | +6 | -11 | +7 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2594 | 2290 | 388 | 77 | 17 | 43 | 207 | 896 | 50 | 125 | 24 | 169 | 253 | 274 | 527 | 105 | 251 | 35 | 8 | 237 | 46 | -16 | +2 | -3 | +3 | +7 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 97 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 225 | 13 | 31 | 6 | 169 | 254 | 274 | 527 | 105 | 250 | 35 | 8 | 237 | 46 | -31 | +4 | -6 | +7 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 284 PAwOBA .270 → .207 (−63)K% 30.3% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.28% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 8.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 12.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 3.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .270 → .207; ISO .142 → .106; BABIP .220 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 383 PAwOBA .337 → .267 (−70)K% 28.7% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.72% | ÷1.028 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.05% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 9.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 19.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 1.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.66% | ÷0.960 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 4.05% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .337 → .267; ISO .180 → .136; BABIP .324 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 307 PAwOBA .314 → .241 (−73)K% 30.0% → 37.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.97% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.05% | ÷0.969 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.63% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.69% | ÷1.029 | ×0.930 | ×0.959 | ×0.992 | 18.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.63% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×0.959 | ×0.992 | 5.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.959 | ×0.992 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.42% | ÷0.986 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.82% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .314 → .241; ISO .163 → .117; BABIP .308 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 21 PAwOBA .431 → .359 (−72)K% 9.5% → 11.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 11.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 9.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 3.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.010 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.968 | 12.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.964 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 11.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.915 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 5.09% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .431 → .359; ISO .294 → .249; BABIP .286 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 311 PAwOBA .325 → .254 (−71)K% 27.3% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.33% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.36% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 11.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.28% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | ×0.960 | ×0.978 | 15.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.02% | ÷1.033 | ×0.860 | ×0.960 | ×0.978 | 6.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.935 | ×0.950 | ×0.960 | ×0.978 | 1.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.32% | ÷1.115 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.96% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 87, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .325 → .254; ISO .162 → .126; BABIP .280 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAHarrisburg Senators · 406 PAwOBA .261 → .209 (−52)K% 31.5% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.53% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.62% | ÷0.980 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.98% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 16.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.21% | ÷0.936 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 7.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.979 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.07% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .261 → .209; ISO .115 → .091; BABIP .280 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAHarrisburg Senators · 144 PAwOBA .254 → .209 (−44)K% 27.1% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.08% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 4.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.86% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 4.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.54% | ÷0.967 | ×0.940 | ×0.971 | ×0.998 | 18.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.75% | ÷1.055 | ×0.870 | ×0.971 | ×0.998 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.037 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.73% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .254 → .209; ISO .087 → .065; BABIP .253 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFredericksburg Nationals · 22 PAwOBA .345 → .279 (−66)K% 13.6% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.967 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.100 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.09% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 6.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.970 | 23.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.970 | 5.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.901 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.159 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 101, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 93, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .345 → .279; ISO .056 → .048; BABIP .333 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .